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Marburg Toll in Angola Rises to 237 - 11 in Luanda
Recombinomics ^ | April 12, 2005 | Recombinomics Commentary

Posted on 04/12/2005 7:37:48 PM PDT by Covenantor

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To: 2ndreconmarine

Well, the next two weeks should tell us what is going to happen...Actually, the next week will.


41 posted on 04/12/2005 9:42:18 PM PDT by Judith Anne (Thank you St. Jude for favors granted.)
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To: 2ndreconmarine

Correction in place


42 posted on 04/12/2005 9:43:02 PM PDT by Covenantor
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To: Boundless
Or put another way, can you do the vertical (#cases) as a logarithmic scale. Is the "curve" then a straight line?

Yes I could and Yes it is. Exactly.

How about for the next version? Since I have been having a bit of trouble with this one... ahem.

43 posted on 04/12/2005 9:43:29 PM PDT by 2ndreconmarine
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To: Judith Anne
Well, the next two weeks should tell us what is going to happen...Actually, the next week will.

Yup.

44 posted on 04/12/2005 9:51:27 PM PDT by 2ndreconmarine
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To: Covenantor
Two possible cases in Namibia?

http://allafrica.com/stories/200504110900.html

The Health and Social Services Minister admitted that he was also aware of the allegations and, as such, he personally visited Engela hospital on Saturday to monitor the situation.

"It is not yet a Marburg virus disease infection case, because it is not laboratory confirmed," Kamwi said, adding that symptoms of Marburg fever have similarities with those of other diseases.


45 posted on 04/12/2005 10:46:58 PM PDT by ordinaryguy
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To: ordinaryguy
I guess not.

Shangula said both cases had been "100 per cent discounted" after laboratory tests were done on the patients.

http://allafrica.com/stories/200504120173.html

46 posted on 04/12/2005 11:05:42 PM PDT by ordinaryguy
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To: ordinaryguy

Maybe. But do a search of Mother Abigails responses regarding the propensity for this strain to show false negative results. Nothing with this Marburg/Ebola seems to follow the previous outbreaks.


47 posted on 04/12/2005 11:12:41 PM PDT by Covenantor
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To: ordinaryguy

One of these Marburg threads had the information that all tests for the virus had to be sent to the US.

So have these negatives been tested in the US, I wonder.


48 posted on 04/13/2005 1:03:39 AM PDT by little jeremiah (Resisting evil is our duty or we are as responsible as those promoting it.)
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To: 2ndreconmarine

Looks like Recombinomics is staring to catch on to your theory. I've posted the graph at another discussion forum, citing proper credits of course. Hope you don't mind.

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/04130501/Marburg_Cluster_Nero.html

Commentary

Large Familial Marburg Cluster Signals Efficient Transmission

Recombinomics Commentary
April 13, 2005

>> "This is a homage to Nero, the most famous musician in Uige, who, together with his wife, daughter, grandson and nephew, were killed by Marburg a few days ago," Cardoso said on Tuesday as the band enjoyed a beer after a practice session in a small flat in central Uige.
<<

The comment above would signal efficient transmission of Marburg in a large familial cluster and would indicate control of the outbreak will be exceedingly difficult.

Media reports have focused on transmissions from child to mother as well as patient to health care worker. These earlier reports signaled an reasonably efficient transmission, but somewhat limited. The death of an extended family moves the transmission to a much higher level. Unless this cluster was due to extremely extraordinary circumstances, it would signal exponential spread of the virus.

The most detailed media reports were released several weeks ago and more recent reports appears to be dated. The quote above is more recent. the report is lacking in detail on the circumstance surrounding the transmission, including a verification that the deaths were due to Marburg. However, it seems likely that the report is accurate. It is unclear if this large familial cluster is related to the six confirmed cases in the Uige morgue.

If the report on the familial cluster is accurate, it would create a major cause for concern..


49 posted on 04/13/2005 2:52:12 AM PDT by Reform4Bush
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To: Covenantor

Luanda is the place to watch, population 1.5 million.


50 posted on 04/13/2005 3:02:09 AM PDT by tet68 ( " We would not die in that man's company, that fears his fellowship to die with us...." Henry V.)
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To: Judith Anne

Yes, there was or I had 3 cases in Portugal, one had since died. Testing was negative for Marburg...not surprised by that result are we?


51 posted on 04/13/2005 4:39:38 AM PDT by EBH
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To: 2ndreconmarine

Thanks for maintaining the information on the curve. I very much appreciate it.


52 posted on 04/13/2005 4:41:49 AM PDT by EBH
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To: ordinaryguy

Actually, if you look at the map of Angola, they have a few districts that are the same as country names and leave it to the media to make this even more confusing.


53 posted on 04/13/2005 5:02:53 AM PDT by EBH
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To: united1000

iafrica.com | news | world news Suspected Marburg case in Portugal
A Portuguese man returning home from Angola on Wednesday complaining of a fever was rushed to hospital where he has undergone tests for the killer Marburg virus, health officials said in Lisbon on Thursday. ... the region worst hit by Marburg, a severe form of haemorrhagic fever ...

iafrica.com/news/worldnews/953012.htm


54 posted on 04/13/2005 5:06:52 AM PDT by EBH
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To: EBH

The post I linked to in #46 is from a paper called The Namibian, published in Namibia, not Angola. Still, as others have pointed out, we don't know for sure that they don't have a problem there.


55 posted on 04/13/2005 5:10:14 AM PDT by ordinaryguy
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To: EBH; AntiGuv; Judith Anne; Covenantor; 2ndreconmarine; Mother Abigail; proud American in Canada; ...

Suspected Marburg case in Portugal
Posted Thu, 31 Mar 2005

A Portuguese man returning home from Angola on Wednesday complaining of a fever was rushed to hospital where he has undergone tests for the killer Marburg virus, health officials said in Lisbon on Thursday.

The 27-year-old man had been working in Uige, the region worst hit by Marburg, a severe form of haemorrhagic fever akin to Ebola, that has killed 126 people in Angola in recent weeks. It spreads on contact with the fluids the body produces in reaction to it, such as vomit, blood, and saliva.

He is the third Portuguese to undergo tests for Marburg, the previous two having been cleared.

"He's doing alright but he has a fever," said Dr Graca Freitas, from the department of contagious diseases where he is being treated, adding the tests had been precautionary.

His tests have been sent to a German laboratory and the results are expected on Thursday afternoon.

Portuguese authorities this week told all their nationals not to travel to Uige and for any who had done so in the past three weeks to contact public health services immediately.


AFP


HE is the THIRD to undergo testing and this report is more than 2 weeks old.


56 posted on 04/13/2005 5:10:29 AM PDT by EBH
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To: 2ndreconmarine; Covenantor

I also wanted to thank the both of you for your work.

Apparently there was an infectious disease expert on Good Morning America yesterday who reassured people that there was "no chance" that Marburg could get to the States....

Somehow I don't buy it. Just like I think these reported deaths are lower than the actual total.


57 posted on 04/13/2005 5:12:07 AM PDT by proud American in Canada
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To: ordinaryguy

Agreed, we don't know much for sure.

I've noticed this morning a number(3) of my Anglo in country newspapers have their sites down...perhaps it's for another reason or a quirk.


58 posted on 04/13/2005 5:23:39 AM PDT by EBH
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To: EBH

But according to the CDC's website, "There is no indication that persons with Marburg virus disease have left the African continent."


59 posted on 04/13/2005 5:32:06 AM PDT by ordinaryguy
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To: ordinaryguy
According the the AFP,

He is the third Portuguese to undergo tests for Marburg, the previous two having been cleared.

60 posted on 04/13/2005 5:37:15 AM PDT by EBH
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