For all the guessing that has been invested in who Pope John Paul II's successor will be, only one thing can be said for sure: When it comes to papal elections, there is no such thing as a sure thing.
Only three of the last 20 popes have gone into the conclave as favorites, according to the Rev. James Weiss, an Episcopal priest and associate professor of church history at Boston College. And this time, there is no favorite.
Historically, no one who has been openly critical of the Vatican administration has also been elected, Weiss said, because the administration, or Curia, accounts for about 35 of the 117 cardinals eligible to vote.
``At the same time,'' he said, ``we know enough cardinals want a change in the way things are done.''
The 22 cardinals from Africa and Asia, for example, represent two continents whose bishops are dissatisfied with what many perceive as the Vatican's failure to address the shortage of priests.
Weiss also cited one high-ranking Vatican official who, in a 2002 speech at Boston College, said there was little coordination among Vatican offices. Among other church officials, there is also considerable feeling that there is too much power concentrated in too few hands.
For those reasons, Weiss said, Germany's Joseph Ratzinger, a key Vatican player, is unlikely to be elected, although many consider him a front-runner. While most cardinals do not want a papacy as long as John Paul II's 26-year tenure, he said, Ratzinger, who turned 78 yesterday, is also older than most of his colleagues would prefer.
Although Italians dominated the papacy for centuries and are likely to try to regain their hold, broken in 1978 by the surprise election of the Polish-born pontiff, both Angelo Scola of Venice and Dionigi Tettamanzi of Milan, frequently mentioned as possible successors, are also unlikely to be elected, Weiss said.
``It would be perceived as a return to business as usual,'' he said. ``John Paul taught us the value of having a strong pope with influence in another part of the world.''
This time, however, with two-thirds of the world's Catholics living in the southern hemisphere, simply choosing a cardinal from another European country may not be enough.
For all of those reasons, Weiss believes the results of the election cannot be predicted. Still, two men, he said, stand out: Francis Arinze of Nigeria and Claudio Hummes of Brazil.
Weiss calls Arinze ``the perfect window-dressing candidate . . . someone who looks new and different, but is actually a creature of the Curia.''
``Theologically conservative, he would look like a revolution in the papacy,'' he said, ``but nothing would change.''
Hummes, on the other hand, has worked for the Curia as well as headed the diocese of Sao Paulo in Latin America, a place where the Vatican wants to consolidate Catholic political influence and stop the region's slow slide toward Evangelical Protestantism.
The front-runners
- Cardinal Angelo Scola
Scola, 63, oversees the archdiocese of Venice, which saw three of its cardinals become popes over the last century. A cardinal since only 2003, he is one of the newest and youngest princes of the Church, which will be seen as an asset among cardinals looking to elect a dynamic pope after poor health forced John Paul II to drastically reduce his public engagements in his final years.
- Cardinal Dionigi Tettamanzi
The archbishop of Milan, Tettamanzi, 71, played a prominent role at a bishops' synod dedicated to Europe, and in 1993 was influential in the writing of a major papal encyclical on morality called, ``The Splendor of Truth.'' A few years ago, John Paul II transferred him from Genoa to Milan, one of the world's largest Catholic dioceses.
- Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger
A German native, Ratzinger had close ties to John Paul II and leads a Vatican office that oversees and enforces church doctrine. At 78, however, he could face challenges from cardinals who want a younger pontiff.
- Cardinal Oscar Andres Rodriguez Maradiaga, of Honduras
At 62, Rodriguez Maradiaga may be too young for those who don't want another long papacy after John Paul II's 26-year run. But being from Latin America, which accounts for a large and growing proportion of the world's Caholics, gives him an edge.
- Cardinal Claudio Hummes, of Brazil
Hummes was appointed by John Paul II in 2001. He, too, is from Latin America but, at 70, has the added advantage of being neither too young nor too old.His degree in ecumenism from the Ecumenical Institute of Bossey, Switzerland, may also be seen as an advantage in a church that has watched Evangelical Protestantism and Islam make inroads in places that were once predominantly Catholic.
- Cardinal Francis Arinze, of Nigeria
Arinze, 72, was appointed by John Paul II in 1985. For the next 17 years, he served as president of the Pontifical Council for Interreligious Dialogue. In 2002, he was nominated prefect of the Congregation of Divine Worship and the Discipline of the Sacraments. Staunchly conservative, he might also win over more moderate cardinals who believe the election of the church's first African-American pope could advance the cause of social justice. |
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