Skip to comments.World Powers in 2030? a shift in the balance of power continues
Posted on 04/17/2005 10:44:32 PM PDT by Destro
World Powers in 2030? a shift in the balance of power continues
Those who grew up during the Cold War may have trouble keeping up with shifts among major world powers. Some still think that Russia will reemerge as a superpower, even though it is not even one the world's top 15 economic powers. One may dismiss Japan as a major military power, not realizing that it is the world's second largest economic power whose military spending exceeds that of China. The respected Economist magazine recently published: "World in Figures, 2004." Data has been extracted from this book to provide a brief comparison of world powers in 2004:
Population is one measure. While Western military analysts focus on material, manpower is critical. Providing AK-47s and RPGs to several million men creates a powerful force, albeit not one capable of major operations. Recall that a million Chinese foot soldiers fought the modern US Army to a stalemate in Korea, and thousands of illiterate Somalis mauled US Army Rangers in 1993. Today, the most populous nations are: #1 China; #2 India (which will surpass China by 2030); a distant #3 United States; #4 Indonesia; #5 Brazil. Pakistan is #6, just ahead of Russia. Bangladesh is #8, Japan at #9 and Nigeria at #10.
Gross Domestic Product is a measure of economic activity, not of wealth, and total population is a major factor. The busiest economies are: #1 United States; #2 Japan (about half of the US); #3 Germany; #4 United Kingdom; #5 France. Yes, the UK and France remain ahead of China which is #6. Surprisingly, Mexico is #9 and Brazil #11, while Russia is way down at #16, even behind South Korea at #13 and the Netherlands at #14. Keep in mind that GDP is misleading. For example, at least 10% of the GDP for the USA comes from borrowing overseas, something that will end, some day. In addition, some 3% of American GDP is created by civil lawsuits because that is "activity."
Current Account is a measure of which nations are accumulating wealth though savings and have an annual surplus: #1 Japan; #2 Russia (rebuilding); #3 Norway (lots of oil profits); #4 Switzerland (secret banking); #5 France. Nations which are bleeding wealth through borrowing have an annual deficit, and are led by: #1 United States, which has an annual deficit 17 times greater than #2 United Kingdom; #3 Brazil (improving though); #4 Mexico; #5 Spain. One final measure is Industrial Output: #1 United States; #2 Japan; #3 China (growing rapidly); #4 Germany; #5 United Kingdom. Of interest is South Korea at #9 while Russia is way down at #14, behind #13 India.
World Powers in 2030?
#2 European Union
#4 United States (bankrupt)
#6 Korea (unified)
#7 Russia (recovered)
#9 United Kingdom
While the United States is the clear superpower today, the European Union surpasses the USA in population, GDP, and industrial output. So if the EU continues to merge politically and militarily, it will become a superpower.
China's high growth rate will allow it to match the United States economically by 2020, perhaps sooner if the USA suffers a major economic setback by failing to address its massive current account deficit (budget and trade imbalances.)
Although Japan will lose population in the years ahead, it is likely to remain the world's most technologically advanced nation. It will prosper once it finds more cash paying customers and stops granting $200 billion in credit each year to the soon to be bankrupt USA, which will be forced to cut it's military budget in half.
India is growing fast and Brazil is booming due to the increased worldwide demand for raw materials.
Pakistan and Indonesia have potential, but political instability is likely to hamper development.
These are just basic statistics, but they probably surprise many readers who have not updated their perceptions of world powers.
Carlton Meyer editor@G2mil.com
"China's high growth rate will allow it to match the United States economically by 2020, perhaps sooner if the USA suffers a major economic setback by failing to address its massive current account deficit (budget and trade imbalances.)"
Same 'ol same 'ol. What makes the US competitive is lower taxes. Yes, maybe some of the entitlement programs will go bankrupt, but not the country itself.
Some people just cannot get around the idea that the deficit will shrink by decreasing federal spending, not taxing at a higher rate. Guess which Party is poised to govern the nation for the forseeable future? Not the one the author of this article supports, I reckon.
You mean the party that has grown the Federal govt to a size no Democrat even imagined when LBJ ruled the roost? What fantasy Republican party do you support - I want to support that low spending and low taxing party, too.
Unfortunately that group includes the current Republican Congress and Republican president!
As for the article, the analysis was horrible. The US might have some stiff competition in 25 years (or not), but 4th place? C'mon!
What you mention is a problem, it would seem. But why not lower taxes *and* increase spending? Everyone's happy, the government goes bankrupt, and then we can begin anew.
Do you really believe that congress can ever significantly reduce spending willingly? No. Financial calamity will bring the issues to the fore, and when that day comes, let's hope FDR II doesn't happen.
Right. And all you have to do is ignore the fact that the GDP gap between the US and the EU has been growing steadily since 1990. Due, in no small part, to the increasing productivity gap. And due to the fact that, as large as the public sector is here in the US, it's peanuts compared to the EU - that's all dead weight that the economy is yoked to. Not to mention the demographic problems over there. If you think the Social Security/Medicare crisis is going to be ugly here, it's nothing compared to what's in store for the Euros. They're not reproducing in the kinds of numbers required to fund future entitlement programs, so the only solution is massive immigration. Well, rotsa ruck with that - hope it works out for 'em. Oh, yeah - they're really well positioned for the next century. Ha.
What a bunch of tripe.
The sick man of Europe is Europe, and their economy will remain stagnant for years to come.
The incessant regulations and high taxes in their "social democracy" make growth and innovation costly and without reward.
Many countries in Western Europe especially have been either in recession or on the brink of recession for the past five years. They also face a huge pension crisis as their population ages and the birthrate plummets.
Of course China will have a larger GDP than the United States eventually, 1 billion people live there!
But on a per capita basis they won't come even close, especially not in 2030.
Lies lies and more lies. The US GDP is approximately 11 trillions dollars (1/3 of the world GDP). The GDP of all the 25 countries that make the EU is approximately 8.5 trillion dollars.
This article is written by a delusional moron who just want write what he sees in his wet dream. The US will remain by far the only superpower for many years to come.
China is # 1 in 2030? really? Are they going to take their 1.1 billion people (out of 1.2 billion) who make less than $ 2000 a year and make then make $ 20,000 a year. China is the most overrated economy in the world.
Socialist EU? with an current unepmloyement rate over 10% (Germany 12.5%, France over 10%) the socialist EU are heading more and more toward non existence. And when the EU decide to arm themselves, they will go bankrupted.
India? Yep a country where you have to close your mouth when showering for fear of getting sick is going to be a superpower? 90% of India live in total poverty, i.e. struggle for FOOD.
No. That is why I think America will do what the Athenian Democracy did after the defeated Persia but had all those expenses from that war to pay off - the Athenians turned their alliance system into a tribute paying system - payment of tribute to Athens ensured by Athenian marines.
The tribute payed for the building of the Parthenon.
Since Americans are addicted to govt. programs and the govt. is addicted to spending non existant money on said programs - deep down inside I feel in 30 years America will begin to charge a "protection tax" as tribute to pay our way. A few 100 million dollars per annum per nation sounds reasonable.
And America's differs how with our current problems with declining Euro-American populations and rising Latin American immigration?
Just a couple decades ago Brazil was seen as becoming a superpower by now. Things happen.
The Japanese are in dire straits in the future, but for them, immigration is less palatable than in much of the rest of the world. The alternatives are to simply fade away, have some sort of controlled immigration scheme, or...well, take a drive around the ghettoes of Paris sometime, and you'll see what the third alternative looks like.
This is nibbling-around-the-edges stuff, though - the problems of the US are roughly the same as the problems of the EU. But they're very, very likely to be much more severe in the EU than in the US.
It's pessimistic to think that Mexicans will veer heavily towards the Democrats over the long haul. Majority, sure, but given that many of the illegals actually want to work and create wealth, whereas the Democrats wish to take it and recycle it back a bit, I have more faith the illegals to be more pro-growth than the lefties.
And that's not even to mention that if the GOP can maintain power, people will have to switch, or be left in the cold.
The party can't change the activist courts overnight who permit illegals to obtain drivers licenses and to vote, but over time those judges will be rotated out. Same with making laws that can create disinsentives to come over the border, such as prosecuting companies that hire them - it takes time to get this kind of agenda across.
On another note, if the worse does start to happen in Europe, with the tightening economies and hostile immigrant bloc, expect "white flight" on a global scale, and for significan numbers of Europeans to move to the US. If that happens, let's hope they leave their statism behind.
No where near what is going on in socialist EU and communist China.
Have a little patience. Next time you're there, take a stroll (actually, don't) through places like Clos Saint-Lazare.
Yes. Their stock of human capital is not being replenished, and future increases in per-capita productivity won't compensate.
Ever stroll through Bed-Sty, Brooklyn? At night??
The problem with France and the EU is that people make less money on average than those in the US, they pay more taxes than what Americans do, and almost everything is more expensive to purchase than in the US. That is why we live much better than the snobby Europeans, and they know it, and they are very jealous.
That is an excellent point.
Thus far, the residents of Bed-Stuy are not blowing up the NYC mass-transit system. How about Madrid?
Um - you forgot about the train bomb plot then that the NYPD busted? Said jihadists lived in Brooklyn.
We are not socialist period. We are the real free Market Capitalist economy in the world.
Maybe we should export some of New York's finest.
Plenty of Chinese girls born outside of China.
The real difference, of course, is that, unlike Paris, the Islamic community is not nearly so segregated and insular in the US.
Social Security? Medicaid? Medicare? Welfare? NASA? Where have you been? Whe just are too ashamed to call ourselves for what we are - a Socialist nation, albiet on the light side of pink.
Yes, the issue is intergration or lack there of. Thomas Freidman's new book "The Earth is Flat" about what globalization is doing postulates that the brain drain into America is slowing down and will stop. Because of technology and globalization people need not pull up roots and leave theor home nation to prosper. I am not a fan of Freidman but since we are having fun predicting the future I thought I would toss that in here.
The problem general is that vast majority of Americans only see the best part of Paris (Champs Elysee, trip on the Seine river, Louvres, Notre Dame, Cedex de Defense etc...) and they do not see the remaining 70% of Paris where poverty and misery rule. They need to take a trip in the metro to see poverty on people faces. The same things apply for many other European cities.
Social security will always remain and hopefully President Bush will make it more "free Market" driven through private accounts.
By definition NASA is a Socialist program. Public funding for a venture that does business in the private sector.
Nail on head.
But try telling that to the idealists here.
Nah. What Friedman misses there is that their feet may no longer come to the US, but globalization insures that their brains will. It's precisely because skilled workers can contribute to the American economy without pulling up roots that makes globalization attractive.
Salve Regina I would like to introduce you to Mr. Destro the man with the most twisted logic on FR. This is nothing compared to his opinion of other subjects.
one little tidbit the author left out is that western Europe may be 25% Muslim by 2030 if immigration and birth rates continue.
muslim cultures decline.
But once the demographic hump is crossed, won't the remaining younger generations have significant capital from inheritances?
It's not just the number of bodies that matter, but how much capital each person has. I suspect the Japanese will continue to be more well off than, say, the Vietnamese, who apparently don't have this demograhic issue?
Of course the govt could write it off. Society would continue - though for a time many millions would sleep on park benches until the economy recovered from that forgiveness.