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World Powers in 2030? a shift in the balance of power continues
g2mil.com ^ | Summer 2005 | Carlton Meyer

Posted on 04/17/2005 10:44:32 PM PDT by Destro

World Powers in 2030? a shift in the balance of power continues

Those who grew up during the Cold War may have trouble keeping up with shifts among major world powers. Some still think that Russia will reemerge as a superpower, even though it is not even one the world's top 15 economic powers. One may dismiss Japan as a major military power, not realizing that it is the world's second largest economic power whose military spending exceeds that of China. The respected Economist magazine recently published: "World in Figures, 2004." Data has been extracted from this book to provide a brief comparison of world powers in 2004:

Population is one measure. While Western military analysts focus on material, manpower is critical. Providing AK-47s and RPGs to several million men creates a powerful force, albeit not one capable of major operations. Recall that a million Chinese foot soldiers fought the modern US Army to a stalemate in Korea, and thousands of illiterate Somalis mauled US Army Rangers in 1993. Today, the most populous nations are: #1 China; #2 India (which will surpass China by 2030); a distant #3 United States; #4 Indonesia; #5 Brazil. Pakistan is #6, just ahead of Russia. Bangladesh is #8, Japan at #9 and Nigeria at #10.

Gross Domestic Product is a measure of economic activity, not of wealth, and total population is a major factor. The busiest economies are: #1 United States; #2 Japan (about half of the US); #3 Germany; #4 United Kingdom; #5 France. Yes, the UK and France remain ahead of China which is #6. Surprisingly, Mexico is #9 and Brazil #11, while Russia is way down at #16, even behind South Korea at #13 and the Netherlands at #14. Keep in mind that GDP is misleading. For example, at least 10% of the GDP for the USA comes from borrowing overseas, something that will end, some day. In addition, some 3% of American GDP is created by civil lawsuits because that is "activity."

Current Account is a measure of which nations are accumulating wealth though savings and have an annual surplus: #1 Japan; #2 Russia (rebuilding); #3 Norway (lots of oil profits); #4 Switzerland (secret banking); #5 France. Nations which are bleeding wealth through borrowing have an annual deficit, and are led by: #1 United States, which has an annual deficit 17 times greater than #2 United Kingdom; #3 Brazil (improving though); #4 Mexico; #5 Spain. One final measure is Industrial Output: #1 United States; #2 Japan; #3 China (growing rapidly); #4 Germany; #5 United Kingdom. Of interest is South Korea at #9 while Russia is way down at #14, behind #13 India.

World Powers in 2030?
#1 China
#2 European Union
#3 Japan
#4 United States (bankrupt)
#5 India
#6 Korea (unified)
#7 Russia (recovered)
#8 Brazil
#9 United Kingdom
#10 Mexico

While the United States is the clear superpower today, the European Union surpasses the USA in population, GDP, and industrial output. So if the EU continues to merge politically and militarily, it will become a superpower.

China's high growth rate will allow it to match the United States economically by 2020, perhaps sooner if the USA suffers a major economic setback by failing to address its massive current account deficit (budget and trade imbalances.)

Although Japan will lose population in the years ahead, it is likely to remain the world's most technologically advanced nation. It will prosper once it finds more cash paying customers and stops granting $200 billion in credit each year to the soon to be bankrupt USA, which will be forced to cut it's military budget in half.

India is growing fast and Brazil is booming due to the increased worldwide demand for raw materials.

Pakistan and Indonesia have potential, but political instability is likely to hamper development.

These are just basic statistics, but they probably surprise many readers who have not updated their perceptions of world powers.

Carlton Meyer editor@G2mil.com


TOPICS: Editorial; Foreign Affairs; Germany; Japan; Mexico; News/Current Events; Russia; United Kingdom
KEYWORDS: 2030; china; geopolitics; newnwo; powers; superpowers; topten
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1 posted on 04/17/2005 10:44:33 PM PDT by Destro
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To: Destro

"China's high growth rate will allow it to match the United States economically by 2020, perhaps sooner if the USA suffers a major economic setback by failing to address its massive current account deficit (budget and trade imbalances.)"

LOL

Same 'ol same 'ol. What makes the US competitive is lower taxes. Yes, maybe some of the entitlement programs will go bankrupt, but not the country itself.

Some people just cannot get around the idea that the deficit will shrink by decreasing federal spending, not taxing at a higher rate. Guess which Party is poised to govern the nation for the forseeable future? Not the one the author of this article supports, I reckon.


2 posted on 04/17/2005 10:52:43 PM PDT by Frank T
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To: Frank T

You mean the party that has grown the Federal govt to a size no Democrat even imagined when LBJ ruled the roost? What fantasy Republican party do you support - I want to support that low spending and low taxing party, too.


3 posted on 04/17/2005 10:54:42 PM PDT by Destro (Know your enemy! Help fight Islamic terrorism by visiting johnathangaltfilms.com and jihadwatch.org)
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To: Frank T
Some people just cannot get around the idea that the deficit will shrink by decreasing federal spending

Unfortunately that group includes the current Republican Congress and Republican president!

As for the article, the analysis was horrible. The US might have some stiff competition in 25 years (or not), but 4th place? C'mon!

4 posted on 04/17/2005 10:58:50 PM PDT by Phocion (Abolish the 16th Amendment.)
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To: Destro

What you mention is a problem, it would seem. But why not lower taxes *and* increase spending? Everyone's happy, the government goes bankrupt, and then we can begin anew.

Do you really believe that congress can ever significantly reduce spending willingly? No. Financial calamity will bring the issues to the fore, and when that day comes, let's hope FDR II doesn't happen.


5 posted on 04/17/2005 10:59:10 PM PDT by Frank T
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To: Destro
While the United States is the clear superpower today, the European Union surpasses the USA in population, GDP, and industrial output.

Right. And all you have to do is ignore the fact that the GDP gap between the US and the EU has been growing steadily since 1990. Due, in no small part, to the increasing productivity gap. And due to the fact that, as large as the public sector is here in the US, it's peanuts compared to the EU - that's all dead weight that the economy is yoked to. Not to mention the demographic problems over there. If you think the Social Security/Medicare crisis is going to be ugly here, it's nothing compared to what's in store for the Euros. They're not reproducing in the kinds of numbers required to fund future entitlement programs, so the only solution is massive immigration. Well, rotsa ruck with that - hope it works out for 'em. Oh, yeah - they're really well positioned for the next century. Ha.

6 posted on 04/17/2005 10:59:16 PM PDT by general_re ("Frantic orthodoxy is never rooted in faith, but in doubt." - Reinhold Niebuhr)
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To: Destro

What a bunch of tripe.

The sick man of Europe is Europe, and their economy will remain stagnant for years to come.

The incessant regulations and high taxes in their "social democracy" make growth and innovation costly and without reward.

Many countries in Western Europe especially have been either in recession or on the brink of recession for the past five years. They also face a huge pension crisis as their population ages and the birthrate plummets.

Of course China will have a larger GDP than the United States eventually, 1 billion people live there!

But on a per capita basis they won't come even close, especially not in 2030.


8 posted on 04/17/2005 11:04:45 PM PDT by RWR8189 (Its Morning in America Again!)
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To: Destro
While the United States is the clear superpower today, the European Union surpasses the USA in population, GDP, and industrial output. So if the EU continues to merge politically and militarily, it will become a superpower.

Lies lies and more lies. The US GDP is approximately 11 trillions dollars (1/3 of the world GDP). The GDP of all the 25 countries that make the EU is approximately 8.5 trillion dollars.

This article is written by a delusional moron who just want write what he sees in his wet dream. The US will remain by far the only superpower for many years to come.

China is # 1 in 2030? really? Are they going to take their 1.1 billion people (out of 1.2 billion) who make less than $ 2000 a year and make then make $ 20,000 a year. China is the most overrated economy in the world.

Socialist EU? with an current unepmloyement rate over 10% (Germany 12.5%, France over 10%) the socialist EU are heading more and more toward non existence. And when the EU decide to arm themselves, they will go bankrupted.

India? Yep a country where you have to close your mouth when showering for fear of getting sick is going to be a superpower? 90% of India live in total poverty, i.e. struggle for FOOD.

9 posted on 04/17/2005 11:06:41 PM PDT by jveritas (The Left cannot win a national election ever again.)
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To: Frank T
Do you really believe that congress can ever significantly reduce spending willingly?

No. That is why I think America will do what the Athenian Democracy did after the defeated Persia but had all those expenses from that war to pay off - the Athenians turned their alliance system into a tribute paying system - payment of tribute to Athens ensured by Athenian marines.

The tribute payed for the building of the Parthenon.

Since Americans are addicted to govt. programs and the govt. is addicted to spending non existant money on said programs - deep down inside I feel in 30 years America will begin to charge a "protection tax" as tribute to pay our way. A few 100 million dollars per annum per nation sounds reasonable.

11 posted on 04/17/2005 11:11:23 PM PDT by Destro (Know your enemy! Help fight Islamic terrorism by visiting johnathangaltfilms.com and jihadwatch.org)
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To: general_re

And America's differs how with our current problems with declining Euro-American populations and rising Latin American immigration?


12 posted on 04/17/2005 11:13:09 PM PDT by Destro (Know your enemy! Help fight Islamic terrorism by visiting johnathangaltfilms.com and jihadwatch.org)
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To: jveritas

Just a couple decades ago Brazil was seen as becoming a superpower by now. Things happen.


13 posted on 04/17/2005 11:13:16 PM PDT by RightWhale (50 trillion sovereign cells working together in relative harmony)
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To: Stingy Dog

The Japanese are in dire straits in the future, but for them, immigration is less palatable than in much of the rest of the world. The alternatives are to simply fade away, have some sort of controlled immigration scheme, or...well, take a drive around the ghettoes of Paris sometime, and you'll see what the third alternative looks like.


14 posted on 04/17/2005 11:14:10 PM PDT by general_re ("Frantic orthodoxy is never rooted in faith, but in doubt." - Reinhold Niebuhr)
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To: Destro
Significantly less drag on the economy from the public sector. Productivity growth outstripping the EU, partly as a result of the massive investments in IT during the 1990s - the EU is at least a decade behind on that score - and partly as a result of the fact that we don't take eleven weeks of vacation from our 27 hour-per-week jobs, or whatever absurd numbers they've decided they're entitled to this week.

This is nibbling-around-the-edges stuff, though - the problems of the US are roughly the same as the problems of the EU. But they're very, very likely to be much more severe in the EU than in the US.

18 posted on 04/17/2005 11:19:16 PM PDT by general_re ("Frantic orthodoxy is never rooted in faith, but in doubt." - Reinhold Niebuhr)
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Comment #19 Removed by Moderator

To: Stingy Dog

It's pessimistic to think that Mexicans will veer heavily towards the Democrats over the long haul. Majority, sure, but given that many of the illegals actually want to work and create wealth, whereas the Democrats wish to take it and recycle it back a bit, I have more faith the illegals to be more pro-growth than the lefties.

And that's not even to mention that if the GOP can maintain power, people will have to switch, or be left in the cold.

The party can't change the activist courts overnight who permit illegals to obtain drivers licenses and to vote, but over time those judges will be rotated out. Same with making laws that can create disinsentives to come over the border, such as prosecuting companies that hire them - it takes time to get this kind of agenda across.

On another note, if the worse does start to happen in Europe, with the tightening economies and hostile immigrant bloc, expect "white flight" on a global scale, and for significan numbers of Europeans to move to the US. If that happens, let's hope they leave their statism behind.


20 posted on 04/17/2005 11:20:57 PM PDT by Frank T
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To: Destro
Since Americans are addicted to govt. programs and the govt. is addicted to spending non existant money on said programs

No where near what is going on in socialist EU and communist China.

22 posted on 04/17/2005 11:23:48 PM PDT by jveritas (The Left cannot win a national election ever again.)
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To: Stingy Dog

Have a little patience. Next time you're there, take a stroll (actually, don't) through places like Clos Saint-Lazare.


23 posted on 04/17/2005 11:25:45 PM PDT by general_re ("Frantic orthodoxy is never rooted in faith, but in doubt." - Reinhold Niebuhr)
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To: Stingy Dog
Would you say the Japanese would be in dire straits in the future because they're reproducing below the replacement rate?

Yes. Their stock of human capital is not being replenished, and future increases in per-capita productivity won't compensate.

24 posted on 04/17/2005 11:28:18 PM PDT by SedVictaCatoni (<><)
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To: jveritas
I am talking about deficit spending not what it is spent on. I love the battle cry - We Americans are not as Socialist as the EU and China!!
25 posted on 04/17/2005 11:29:15 PM PDT by Destro (Know your enemy! Help fight Islamic terrorism by visiting johnathangaltfilms.com and jihadwatch.org)
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To: general_re; Stingy Dog

Ever stroll through Bed-Sty, Brooklyn? At night??


26 posted on 04/17/2005 11:30:50 PM PDT by Destro (Know your enemy! Help fight Islamic terrorism by visiting johnathangaltfilms.com and jihadwatch.org)
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To: Stingy Dog
I have been there too, and I saw a lot of misery among most of Parisians, because they barely make a living.

The problem with France and the EU is that people make less money on average than those in the US, they pay more taxes than what Americans do, and almost everything is more expensive to purchase than in the US. That is why we live much better than the snobby Europeans, and they know it, and they are very jealous.

27 posted on 04/17/2005 11:32:30 PM PDT by jveritas (The Left cannot win a national election ever again.)
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To: Salve Regina
Just wait until their sex imbalance explodes because they have been killing off their girl babies for decades.

That is an excellent point.

28 posted on 04/17/2005 11:33:40 PM PDT by jveritas (The Left cannot win a national election ever again.)
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To: Destro

Thus far, the residents of Bed-Stuy are not blowing up the NYC mass-transit system. How about Madrid?


29 posted on 04/17/2005 11:34:53 PM PDT by general_re ("Frantic orthodoxy is never rooted in faith, but in doubt." - Reinhold Niebuhr)
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To: general_re

Um - you forgot about the train bomb plot then that the NYPD busted? Said jihadists lived in Brooklyn.


30 posted on 04/17/2005 11:36:54 PM PDT by Destro (Know your enemy! Help fight Islamic terrorism by visiting johnathangaltfilms.com and jihadwatch.org)
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To: Destro
We Americans are not as Socialist as the EU and China!!

We are not socialist period. We are the real free Market Capitalist economy in the world.

31 posted on 04/17/2005 11:37:04 PM PDT by jveritas (The Left cannot win a national election ever again.)
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To: Destro

Maybe we should export some of New York's finest.


32 posted on 04/17/2005 11:37:30 PM PDT by general_re ("Frantic orthodoxy is never rooted in faith, but in doubt." - Reinhold Niebuhr)
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To: jveritas; Salve Regina

Plenty of Chinese girls born outside of China.


33 posted on 04/17/2005 11:37:51 PM PDT by Destro (Know your enemy! Help fight Islamic terrorism by visiting johnathangaltfilms.com and jihadwatch.org)
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To: Destro

The real difference, of course, is that, unlike Paris, the Islamic community is not nearly so segregated and insular in the US.


34 posted on 04/17/2005 11:39:14 PM PDT by general_re ("Frantic orthodoxy is never rooted in faith, but in doubt." - Reinhold Niebuhr)
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To: jveritas

Social Security? Medicaid? Medicare? Welfare? NASA? Where have you been? Whe just are too ashamed to call ourselves for what we are - a Socialist nation, albiet on the light side of pink.


35 posted on 04/17/2005 11:39:19 PM PDT by Destro (Know your enemy! Help fight Islamic terrorism by visiting johnathangaltfilms.com and jihadwatch.org)
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To: general_re

Yes, the issue is intergration or lack there of. Thomas Freidman's new book "The Earth is Flat" about what globalization is doing postulates that the brain drain into America is slowing down and will stop. Because of technology and globalization people need not pull up roots and leave theor home nation to prosper. I am not a fan of Freidman but since we are having fun predicting the future I thought I would toss that in here.


38 posted on 04/17/2005 11:41:50 PM PDT by Destro (Know your enemy! Help fight Islamic terrorism by visiting johnathangaltfilms.com and jihadwatch.org)
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To: general_re

The problem general is that vast majority of Americans only see the best part of Paris (Champs Elysee, trip on the Seine river, Louvres, Notre Dame, Cedex de Defense etc...) and they do not see the remaining 70% of Paris where poverty and misery rule. They need to take a trip in the metro to see poverty on people faces. The same things apply for many other European cities.


39 posted on 04/17/2005 11:42:31 PM PDT by jveritas (The Left cannot win a national election ever again.)
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To: Destro
NASA is now a socialist government program according to Destro.

Social security will always remain and hopefully President Bush will make it more "free Market" driven through private accounts.

40 posted on 04/17/2005 11:45:20 PM PDT by jveritas (The Left cannot win a national election ever again.)
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To: Salve Regina; jveritas
Think about it - Chinese economy is booming - your Chinese living in Indonesia or the Philippines or in Vietnam where you suffer discrimination - and it is possible to get your daughter married to a man with a good factory job? and there may be a job for the whole family? That could be a possible scenario for the reduction in female Chinese due to abortions resulting in the one child policy currently place. Also if the Chinese ditch the Communist party and go Nationalist they can sponsor fertility drives like Nationalists are known to do.
41 posted on 04/17/2005 11:45:39 PM PDT by Destro (Know your enemy! Help fight Islamic terrorism by visiting johnathangaltfilms.com and jihadwatch.org)
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To: Destro
Here's an interesting article by the late Murray Rothbard to consider on repudiating the national debt: http://www.mises.org/fullstory.aspx?control=1423 Deficits continue, and the public debt rises, but so what? Do we own it? No, this thing called the government does. If a crises arises, shut it down and liquidate its assets. The money owed is not privately owned debt. If that's the case, why fight it? Maybe Cheney was right and that "deficits don't matter anymore"? The whole issue of money has become metaphysical. Where is it all? If everyone tried to cash out at once, there wouldn't be enough paper bills. No gold bricks either. Just this notion that the government backs the paper. So why lose elections over the deficit? Just keep taxes low. Here's some interesting ideas from the Rothbard article mentioned above: "Although largely forgotten by historians and by the public, repudiation of public debt is a solid part of the American tradition. The first wave of repudiation of state debt came during the 1840's, after the panics of 1837 and 1839. Those panics were the consequence of a massive inflationary boom fueled by the Whig-run Second Bank of the United States. Riding the wave of inflationary credit, numerous state governments, largely those run by the Whigs, floated an enormous amount of debt, most of which went into wasteful public works (euphemistically called 'internal improvements'), and into the creation of inflationary banks. Outstanding public debt by state governments rose from $26 million to $170 million during the decade of the 1830's. Most of these securities were financed by British and Dutch investors. "During the deflationary 1840's succeeding the panics, state governments faced repayment of their debt in dollars that were now more valuable than the ones they had borrowed. Many states, now largely in Democratic hands, met the crisis by repudiating these debts, either totally or partially by scaling down the amount in 'readjustments.' Specifically, of the 28 American states in the 1840's, nine were in the glorious position of having no public debt, and one (Missouri's) was negligible; of the 18 remaining, nine paid the interest on their public debt without interruption, while another nine (Maryland, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Florida) repudiated part or all of their liabilities. Of these states, four defaulted for several years in their interest payments, whereas the other five (Michigan, Mississippi, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Florida) totally and permanently repudiated their entire outstanding public debt. As in every debt repudiation, the result was to lift a great burden from the backs of the taxpayers in the defaulting and repudiating states." and: "So what can be done now? The current federal debt is $3.5 trillion [1995]. Approximately $1.4 trillion, or 40 percent, is owned by one or another agency of the federal government. It is ridiculous for a citizen to be taxed by one arm of the federal government (the IRS), to pay interest and principal on debt owned by another agency of the federal government. It would save the taxpayer a great deal of money, and spare savings from further waste, to simply cancel that debt outright. The alleged debt is simply an accounting fiction that provides a mask over reality and furnishes a convenient means for mulcting the taxpayer....Canceling federal agency-held bonds, then, reduces the federal debt by 40 percent. I would advocate going on to repudiate the entire debt outright, and let the chips fall where they may. The glorious result would be an immediate drop of $200 billion in federal expenditures, with at least the fighting chance of an equivalent cut in taxes."
42 posted on 04/17/2005 11:45:49 PM PDT by Frank T
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To: jveritas

By definition NASA is a Socialist program. Public funding for a venture that does business in the private sector.


43 posted on 04/17/2005 11:47:01 PM PDT by Destro (Know your enemy! Help fight Islamic terrorism by visiting johnathangaltfilms.com and jihadwatch.org)
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To: Stingy Dog

Nail on head.

But try telling that to the idealists here.


44 posted on 04/17/2005 11:47:21 PM PDT by wardaddy (They kicked my dog, he turned to me and he said...let's get back to Tennessee Jed!)
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To: Destro
Thomas Freidman's new book "The Earth is Flat" about what globalization is doing postulates that the brain drain into America is slowing down and will stop. Because of technology and globalization people need not pull up roots and leave theor home nation to prosper.

Nah. What Friedman misses there is that their feet may no longer come to the US, but globalization insures that their brains will. It's precisely because skilled workers can contribute to the American economy without pulling up roots that makes globalization attractive.

45 posted on 04/17/2005 11:48:23 PM PDT by general_re ("Frantic orthodoxy is never rooted in faith, but in doubt." - Reinhold Niebuhr)
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To: Salve Regina; Destro

Salve Regina I would like to introduce you to Mr. Destro the man with the most twisted logic on FR. This is nothing compared to his opinion of other subjects.


47 posted on 04/17/2005 11:48:51 PM PDT by jveritas (The Left cannot win a national election ever again.)
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To: RWR8189

one little tidbit the author left out is that western Europe may be 25% Muslim by 2030 if immigration and birth rates continue.

muslim cultures decline.


48 posted on 04/17/2005 11:48:54 PM PDT by wardaddy (They kicked my dog, he turned to me and he said...let's get back to Tennessee Jed!)
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To: SedVictaCatoni

But once the demographic hump is crossed, won't the remaining younger generations have significant capital from inheritances?

It's not just the number of bodies that matter, but how much capital each person has. I suspect the Japanese will continue to be more well off than, say, the Vietnamese, who apparently don't have this demograhic issue?


49 posted on 04/17/2005 11:49:19 PM PDT by Frank T
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To: Frank T

Of course the govt could write it off. Society would continue - though for a time many millions would sleep on park benches until the economy recovered from that forgiveness.


50 posted on 04/17/2005 11:49:31 PM PDT by Destro (Know your enemy! Help fight Islamic terrorism by visiting johnathangaltfilms.com and jihadwatch.org)
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