World Powers in 2030? a shift in the balance of power continues

g2mil.com ^ | Summer 2005 | Carlton Meyer

[Destro]

World Powers in 2030? a shift in the balance of power continues

Those who grew up during the Cold War may have trouble keeping up with shifts among major world powers. Some still think that Russia will reemerge as a superpower, even though it is not even one the world's top 15 economic powers. One may dismiss Japan as a major military power, not realizing that it is the world's second largest economic power whose military spending exceeds that of China. The respected Economist magazine recently published: "World in Figures, 2004." Data has been extracted from this book to provide a brief comparison of world powers in 2004:

Population is one measure. While Western military analysts focus on material, manpower is critical. Providing AK-47s and RPGs to several million men creates a powerful force, albeit not one capable of major operations. Recall that a million Chinese foot soldiers fought the modern US Army to a stalemate in Korea, and thousands of illiterate Somalis mauled US Army Rangers in 1993. Today, the most populous nations are: #1 China; #2 India (which will surpass China by 2030); a distant #3 United States; #4 Indonesia; #5 Brazil. Pakistan is #6, just ahead of Russia. Bangladesh is #8, Japan at #9 and Nigeria at #10.

Gross Domestic Product is a measure of economic activity, not of wealth, and total population is a major factor. The busiest economies are: #1 United States; #2 Japan (about half of the US); #3 Germany; #4 United Kingdom; #5 France. Yes, the UK and France remain ahead of China which is #6. Surprisingly, Mexico is #9 and Brazil #11, while Russia is way down at #16, even behind South Korea at #13 and the Netherlands at #14. Keep in mind that GDP is misleading. For example, at least 10% of the GDP for the USA comes from borrowing overseas, something that will end, some day. In addition, some 3% of American GDP is created by civil lawsuits because that is "activity."

Current Account is a measure of which nations are accumulating wealth though savings and have an annual surplus: #1 Japan; #2 Russia (rebuilding); #3 Norway (lots of oil profits); #4 Switzerland (secret banking); #5 France. Nations which are bleeding wealth through borrowing have an annual deficit, and are led by: #1 United States, which has an annual deficit 17 times greater than #2 United Kingdom; #3 Brazil (improving though); #4 Mexico; #5 Spain. One final measure is Industrial Output: #1 United States; #2 Japan; #3 China (growing rapidly); #4 Germany; #5 United Kingdom. Of interest is South Korea at #9 while Russia is way down at #14, behind #13 India.

World Powers in 2030?
#1 China
#2 European Union
#3 Japan
#4 United States (bankrupt)
#5 India
#6 Korea (unified)
#7 Russia (recovered)
#8 Brazil
#9 United Kingdom
#10 Mexico

While the United States is the clear superpower today, the European Union surpasses the USA in population, GDP, and industrial output. So if the EU continues to merge politically and militarily, it will become a superpower.

China's high growth rate will allow it to match the United States economically by 2020, perhaps sooner if the USA suffers a major economic setback by failing to address its massive current account deficit (budget and trade imbalances.)

Although Japan will lose population in the years ahead, it is likely to remain the world's most technologically advanced nation. It will prosper once it finds more cash paying customers and stops granting $200 billion in credit each year to the soon to be bankrupt USA, which will be forced to cut it's military budget in half.

India is growing fast and Brazil is booming due to the increased worldwide demand for raw materials.

Pakistan and Indonesia have potential, but political instability is likely to hamper development.

These are just basic statistics, but they probably surprise many readers who have not updated their perceptions of world powers.

Carlton Meyer editor@G2mil.com

[Destro]

Think about it - Chinese economy is booming - your Chinese living in Indonesia or the Philippines or in Vietnam where you suffer discrimination - and it is possible to get your daughter married to a man with a good factory job? and there may be a job for the whole family? That could be a possible scenario for the reduction in female Chinese due to abortions resulting in the one child policy currently place. Also if the Chinese ditch the Communist party and go Nationalist they can sponsor fertility drives like Nationalists are known to do.

[Frank T]

Here's an interesting article by the late Murray Rothbard to consider on repudiating the national debt: http://www.mises.org/fullstory.aspx?control=1423 Deficits continue, and the public debt rises, but so what? Do we own it? No, this thing called the government does. If a crises arises, shut it down and liquidate its assets. The money owed is not privately owned debt. If that's the case, why fight it? Maybe Cheney was right and that "deficits don't matter anymore"? The whole issue of money has become metaphysical. Where is it all? If everyone tried to cash out at once, there wouldn't be enough paper bills. No gold bricks either. Just this notion that the government backs the paper. So why lose elections over the deficit? Just keep taxes low. Here's some interesting ideas from the Rothbard article mentioned above: "Although largely forgotten by historians and by the public, repudiation of public debt is a solid part of the American tradition. The first wave of repudiation of state debt came during the 1840's, after the panics of 1837 and 1839. Those panics were the consequence of a massive inflationary boom fueled by the Whig-run Second Bank of the United States. Riding the wave of inflationary credit, numerous state governments, largely those run by the Whigs, floated an enormous amount of debt, most of which went into wasteful public works (euphemistically called 'internal improvements'), and into the creation of inflationary banks. Outstanding public debt by state governments rose from $26 million to $170 million during the decade of the 1830's. Most of these securities were financed by British and Dutch investors. "During the deflationary 1840's succeeding the panics, state governments faced repayment of their debt in dollars that were now more valuable than the ones they had borrowed. Many states, now largely in Democratic hands, met the crisis by repudiating these debts, either totally or partially by scaling down the amount in 'readjustments.' Specifically, of the 28 American states in the 1840's, nine were in the glorious position of having no public debt, and one (Missouri's) was negligible; of the 18 remaining, nine paid the interest on their public debt without interruption, while another nine (Maryland, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Florida) repudiated part or all of their liabilities. Of these states, four defaulted for several years in their interest payments, whereas the other five (Michigan, Mississippi, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Florida) totally and permanently repudiated their entire outstanding public debt. As in every debt repudiation, the result was to lift a great burden from the backs of the taxpayers in the defaulting and repudiating states." and: "So what can be done now? The current federal debt is $3.5 trillion [1995]. Approximately $1.4 trillion, or 40 percent, is owned by one or another agency of the federal government. It is ridiculous for a citizen to be taxed by one arm of the federal government (the IRS), to pay interest and principal on debt owned by another agency of the federal government. It would save the taxpayer a great deal of money, and spare savings from further waste, to simply cancel that debt outright. The alleged debt is simply an accounting fiction that provides a mask over reality and furnishes a convenient means for mulcting the taxpayer....Canceling federal agency-held bonds, then, reduces the federal debt by 40 percent. I would advocate going on to repudiate the entire debt outright, and let the chips fall where they may. The glorious result would be an immediate drop of $200 billion in federal expenditures, with at least the fighting chance of an equivalent cut in taxes."

[Destro]

By definition NASA is a Socialist program. Public funding for a venture that does business in the private sector.

[wardaddy]

Nail on head.

But try telling that to the idealists here.

[general_re]

Thomas Freidman's new book "The Earth is Flat" about what globalization is doing postulates that the brain drain into America is slowing down and will stop. Because of technology and globalization people need not pull up roots and leave theor home nation to prosper.

Nah. What Friedman misses there is that their feet may no longer come to the US, but globalization insures that their brains will. It's precisely because skilled workers can contribute to the American economy without pulling up roots that makes globalization attractive.

[jveritas]

Salve Regina I would like to introduce you to Mr. Destro the man with the most twisted logic on FR. This is nothing compared to his opinion of other subjects.

[wardaddy]

one little tidbit the author left out is that western Europe may be 25% Muslim by 2030 if immigration and birth rates continue.

muslim cultures decline.

[Frank T]

But once the demographic hump is crossed, won't the remaining younger generations have significant capital from inheritances?

It's not just the number of bodies that matter, but how much capital each person has. I suspect the Japanese will continue to be more well off than, say, the Vietnamese, who apparently don't have this demograhic issue?

[Destro]

Of course the govt could write it off. Society would continue - though for a time many millions would sleep on park benches until the economy recovered from that forgiveness.

[general_re]

Too true. It's true, of course, that there are some rather poor and desperate places in the US, but then again, we have (literally) the richest poor people in the entire world.

[jveritas]

It is also Microwavable :)

[jveritas]

Exactly. In fact last year I read an article where EU "governments" were complaining about the brain drain from Europe to the US. Of course the conclusion of the article per the European scientists who came to the US is that they migrate to American because they get payed much better and they get allocated much more money in much faster fashion to do their R & D than in Europe.

[Destro]

That is because you think like a member of the herd. We don't really know the population problems China's one baby policy is having nor what sex selection abortions will do.

But the Chinese Communist party is fading, and as China booms it is very possible millions of Chinese all over East Asia would return to China looking for work (anti-Chinese bias is all over East Asia - Chinese merchants are the Jews of Asia)- and they have daughters. If a Nationalist regime gets into power - they tend to support money to parents to produce more nationals.

To the unimaginative and small minded that may read as "twisted logic" but makes logical sense to me.

[jveritas]

we have (literally) the richest poor people in the entire world.

Exactly, we classify any person who makes $ 12,000 or less as below poverty line.

[Destro]

Oh and buddy, next time you talk about me or any other person to another have the class to ping them on it ok?

[jveritas]

Sweet dreams :)