Time to fire up the old Space Ark...
Posted on 04/18/2005 7:21:31 AM PDT by aculeus
A HUGE asteroid which is on a course to miss the Earth by a whisker in 2029 could go round its orbit again and score a direct hit a few years later.
Astronomers have calculated that the 1,000ft-wide asteroid called 2004 MN4 will pass by the Earth at a distance of between 15,000 and 25,000 miles — about a tenth of the distance between the Earth and the Moon and close enough to be seen with the naked eye.
Although they are sure that it will miss us, they are worried about the disturbance that such a close pass will give to the asteroid’s orbit. It might put 2004 MN4 on course for a collision in 2034 or a year or two later: the unpredictability of its behaviour means that the danger might not become apparent until it is too late.
As a safety precaution, some experts are calling for 2004 MN4 to be “tagged” with a transponder that would constantly radio its position. Scientists hope that this would provide enough warning to allow emergency action if necessary, possibly by diverting the object away from the Earth.Other instruments on the probe could provide information about its composition.
Benny Peiser, from Liverpool John Moores University, who is an expert on asteroid hazards, said: “We don’t know what that asteroid is made of and that might influence the way it’s affected by the Earth’s gravitational pull. There are other close approaches, in 2034 and 2035. In all likelihood it will produce an orbit that will not intercept the Earth, but we don’t know.”
The asteroid is big enough to cause damage on a regional scale, with an expected impact equivalent to a 1,000-megatonne explosion. It was discovered last June and its orbit plotted in detail by December. Startled astronomers calculated at one point that its chances of a direct hit on Friday, April 13, 2029, were 1 in 38. But additional calculations have set those fears to rest. The asteroid is now expected to miss but come close enough to be below the altitude of TV satellites. It should be visible as a rapidly moving point of light.
Brian Marsden, of the Harvard-Smithsonian Centre for Astrophysics in Cambridge, Massachusetts, expects the close encounter to increase the frequency of the asteroid’s orbit, creating the possibility of further close encounters every five to nine years.
An interceptor mission is feasible and Dr Peiser said that an opportunity would arise in 2012, when 2004 MN4 will be ten million miles from Earth. “That’s not a big distance as far as space missions go,” he said.
“This is most likely not the object with our number on it, but one day we will have to address this question and we’ll need the technology. A transponder mission should not be too complicated or costly, and would provide a lot of vital data.”
Copyright 2005 Times Newspapers Ltd.
What difference does it make? We are all suppose to have died from the Avian Flu before then.
If I've got a bad idea, perhaps someone knowledgeable could explain why.
When gravity is outlawed, only.................
"It might put 2004 MN4 on course for a collision in 2034..."
I'll be 88. Now I have something to look forward too.
> why are they going to tag it with a radio transmitter and not just blow the thing apart, thereby nullifying any risk at all?
Because we're not real clear even yet on how to blow apart a 1000-foot asteroid of unknown composition. And without knowing exactly what it's trajectory is, blowing into pieces might well take a 1000-foot asteroid that was going to miss Earth and turn it into several 400-foot asteroids that WILL hit Earth.
Thanks for the ping!
So Jupiter hasn't been the solar system vacuum for billions of years?
Those comets and asteroids have been awfully plentiful on our short life spans. Shumaker-Levy would have been life ending if it were to have hit earth. In our very lifetimes.
Time to fire up the old Space Ark...
close enough to be seen with the naked eye
=======
Well, I suppose that will be permissible...
presuming it's not Janet Jackson's naked eye !!! ;-))
We could start a thread to consider post Hilary-Dystopias. Or just read up on Stalin's Russia, of course :0)
> If we can make the effort to "tag" it, how much harder would it be to put something on it that would blow it to bits, when it goes away from Earth?
A lot. A tagging mission could be carried out similar to the NEAR mission... call it one Delta II launch, well under $100 million, launch it in less than 5 years. But a mission to deflect the asteroid away from an impact would require that very same mission to be launched anyway, with numerous additional missions to follow.
Deflecting the asteroid would be substantially easier than blowing it up enough to no longer pose any sort of risk... if you've got decades to do it. But either way would require a hell of a lot more launch capability than a single Delta II. Speaking as a "rocket scientist," I'd LOVE to see such a mission put together; it'd be great to build up the infrastructure. But it would nevertheless be a substantially longer-term and more costly mission than a simple transponder.
But it still won't be able to figure out timezones in Indiana.
The solution is much more simple, just have congress outlaw asteroids. If that doesn't work, perhaps the ACLU could sue the the asteroid on grounds of fear, distress and mental anguish on behalf of the childrennnnnnnnnn
Everybody, say it with me:
"We're all gonna DIE!!1!!1!!one!!"
Gravity sucks!
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