I didn't think so.
Posted on 04/29/2005 7:34:14 PM PDT by ChristianDefender
WASHINGTON – In the latest evidence Iran is seriously planning an unconventional pre-emptive nuclear strike against the U.S., an Iranian military journal has publicly considered the idea of launching an electromagnetic pulse attack as the key to defeating the world's lone superpower.
Congress was warned of Iran's plans last month by Peter Pry, a senior staffer with the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse Attack in a hearing of Sen. John Kyl's subcommittee on terrorism, technology and homeland security.
In an article titled, "Electronics to Determine Fate of Future Wars," the journal explains how an EMP attack on America's electronic infrastructure, caused by the detonation of a nuclear weapon high above the U.S., would bring the country to its knees.
"Once you confuse the enemy communication network you can also disrupt the work of the enemy command- and decision-making center," the article states. "Even worse today when you disable a country's military high command through disruption of communications, you will, in effect, disrupt all the affairs of that country. If the world's industrial countries fail to devise effective ways to defend themselves against dangerous electronic assaults then they will disintegrate within a few years. American soldiers would not be able to find food to eat nor would they be able to fire a single shot."
WND reported the Iranian threat last Monday, explaining Tehran is not only covertly developing nuclear weapons, it is already testing ballistic missiles specifically designed to destroy America's technical infrastructure. The report was published first in Joseph Farah's G2 Bulletin, a premium, online intelligence newsletter by WND's founder.
Pry pointed out the Iranians have been testing mid-air detonations of their Shahab-3 medium-range missile over the Caspian Sea. The missiles were fired from ships.
"A nuclear missile concealed in the hold of a freighter would give Iran or terrorists the capability to perform an EMP attack against the United States homeland without developing an ICBM and with some prospect of remaining anonymous," explained Pry. "Iran's Shahab-3 medium range missile mentioned earlier is a mobile missile and small enough to be transported in the hold of a freighter. We cannot rule out that Iran, the world's leading sponsor of international terrorism might provide terrorists with the means to executive an EMP attack against the United States."
Lowell Wood, acting chairman of the commission, said yesterday that such an attack – by Iran or some other actor – could cripple the U.S. by knocking out electrical power, computers, circuit boards controlling most automobiles and trucks, banking systems, communications and food and water supplies.
"No one can say just how long systems would be down," he said. "It could be weeks, months or even years."
EMP attacks are generated when a nuclear weapon is detonated at altitudes above a few dozen kilometers above the earth's surface. The explosion, of even a small nuclear warhead, would produce a set of electromagnetic pulses that interact with the earth's atmosphere and the earth's magnetic field.
"These electromagnetic pulses propagate from the burst point of the nuclear weapon to the line of sight on the earth's horizon, potentially covering a vast geographic region in doing so simultaneously, moreover, at the speed of light," said Wood. "For example, a nuclear weapon detonated at an altitude of 400 kilometers over the central United States would cover, with its primary electromagnetic pulse, the entire continent of the United States and parts of Canada and Mexico."
The commission, in its work over a period of several years, found that EMP is one of a small number of threats that has the potential to hold American society seriously at risk and that might also result in the defeat of U.S. military forces.
"The electromagnetic field pulses produced by weapons designed and deployed with the intent to produce EMP have a high likelihood of damaging electrical power systems, electronics and information systems upon which any reasonably advanced society, most specifically including our own, depend vitally," Wood said. "Their effects on systems and infrastructures dependent on electricity and electronics could be sufficiently ruinous as to qualify as catastrophic to the American nation."
Wood warned of the potential for unprecedented cascading failures of major electronic and electrical infrastructures.
"In such events, a regional or national recovery would be long and difficult and would seriously degrade the overall viability of the American nation and the safety and even the lives of very large numbers of U.S. citizens," he said.
Strategic EMP attacks on the U.S. have also been considered and discussed recently by China and post-Soviet Union Russia, according to the commission. Yet, the more imminent threat, according to William R. Graham, former chairman of the commission, and Wood, comes from rogue states such as Iran and North Korea and their terrorist allies.
"The current vulnerability of critical U.S. infrastructures can both invite and reward such attacks if not corrected," Wood said. "I might add that extreme, sustained vulnerability entices such attack. However, correction is feasible and well within the nation's tactical means and material resources to accomplish. Most critical infrastructure vulnerabilities can be reduced below those levels that potentially invite attempts to create a national catastrophe. By protecting key elements in each critical infrastructure and by preparing to recover essential services, the prospects for a terrorist of rogue state being to impose large-scale, long-term damage on the United States could be minimized."
The commission estimated that major corrections could be made in the next three to five years that would greatly reduce America's vulnerability to an EMP attack. There is concern within the commission, however, that the EMP threat is not being taken seriously by the Department of Homeland Security.
Peter Fonash, acting deputy manager for the National Communications System in the Department of Homeland Security, said the agency has "determined that there is minimal EMP effect."
While the Department of Defense has received briefings from the commission at the highest levels, DHS has not, say commission members.
"We haven't had equivalent briefings like that with the Department of Homeland Security yet," said Pry at last month's congressional hearing.
Since there has never been a large-scale EMP attack anywhere in the world to evaluate, the assessments are based on extrapolation of available data gathered from small-scale nuclear experiments.
Wood said an actual EMP attack on the United States minimally would result in $20 billion in damages, no loss of life and just a great deal of inconvenience. However, on the other end of the scale, it could "literally destroy the American nation and might cause the deaths of 90 percent of its people and set us back a century or more in time as far as our ability to function as a society."
Wood agreed with Graham, who said he could think of no other reason Iran would be experimenting with high-altitude detonations of missiles besides planning for an EMP attack.
Jerome Corsi, author of "Atomic Iran," told WorldNetDaily the new findings about Iran's electromagnetic pulse experiments significantly raise the stakes of the mullah regime's bid to become a nuclear power.
"Up until now, I believed the nuclear threat to the U.S. from Iran was limited to the ability of terrorists to penetrate the borders or port security to deliver a device to a major city," he said. "While that threat should continue to be a grave concern for every American, these tests by Iran demonstrate just how devious the fanatical mullahs in Tehran are. We are facing a clever and unscrupulous adversary in Iran that could bring America to its knees."
The commission said hardening key infrastructure systems and procuring vital backup equipment such as transformers is both feasible and – compared with the threat – relatively inexpensive.
FYI
Some effects that are predicted are based on, IMO, very tenuous observations from which conclusions were drawn during open-air tests in the Pacific years ago.
Don't F*** with us.
We would wipe these maggots off the face of the earth if they did such a thing.
I didn't think so.
"We would wipe these maggots off the face of the earth if they did such a thing."
-The Great Iranian Sea...formerly called Islamic Rep. of Iran, can be found near Iraq.
...but some of these folks might be our friends, lets just focus on the mullahs and their fans...
Maybe you're right... but it's sometimes better to overestimate to have enough countermeasures...
Piiiiiiiiiiiiing....
They want it; they need it; they gotta have it. Sock it to those Persian peckerhead pagan priests! Why wait? Those Persians have never been up to any good and need to just be gone!
Bad idea. There is no reason we have to be attacked just so that we can justify defending ourselves. While that idea tends to look like bravado, it is just weakness. Strength involves defusing the situation before it arrives.
Consider the potential costs: an EMP could potentially cause billions to trillions of dollars of damage to our infrastructure. Remember, we developed EMPs to disable continents! Even of a much smaller scale it could be economically devastating. If it was launched, we would launch nuclear weapons as well and then all hell would break loose. Lets hope our intelligence is accurate on what and where Iran is developing nuclear weapons.
And your suggestion is....???
I was riding one of those Boomers during the `80 elections. After the election, someone would ask, "what's flat, black, and glows in the dark?" The answer, of course, was "Iran, on January 20th." Isn't it funny how the hostages were released, just in time for Reagan's Inauguration?
Based on what I've read...and considering the use of a cruise missile instead of a standard large ICBM...one cruise missile might be able to take out 50 percent of the electronics in a four to six county area. The 50 percent figure is assuming on the extreme side as well.
Both the US and Russia did alot of testing in this area back in the 1970s. It seemed like that neither ventured past a certain point in the testing and there was a bit of worry about just how big a EMP weapon they could build and how to estimate the range. Neither wanted to destroy their own troops electronics.
I would say this...if Iran is developing such a capability...then they are likely looking to find a medium size freighter and put at least 30 cruise missiles onboard. My guess is that New York and the East coast would be the target. If you take out the financial sector (Wall Street) and all of the major airports in the northeast...it'd take months to recover and the entire economic sector in the US would take a huge noise-dive for at least a year. The freighter would quietly creep off after the mission and hope not to be seen. The amusing thing is that the navy operates enough radars along the coast and would have a good idea where the missiles came from. We'd be on the vessel within six hours. I can just see the Captain standing there and trying to stay cool.
However, I do want to remind you when that EMP was detected in Hawaii back in the early 1960's from a near-space nuclear explosion test conducted by the US Army, that happened with a nuclear device of over 500 kT in yield. Given that Iran is nowhere near ready to build a multistage nuclear weapon (it's a lot harder to build a thermonuclear bomb than just a fission bomb), a 20 kT nuclear explosion 300 miles up would have negilible EMP effects; it would be like a solar storm passing by!
First and foremost, securing the borders. If Iran was going to deploy the weapon they probably won't use a submarine and they are not going to be able to use an ICBM. This means smuggling it into the US and using a rocket or other means to put it at the proper elevation (perhaps an airplane). Border security is paramount for this.
Second, secure the oceans (especially the Atlantic ocean) and track every boat that leaves Iran. Since an EMP has such a long range, it can be deployed far from the borders of the US and still hurt us. What securing the oceans means is that if an Iranian flagged ship (or any other ship that intelligence says may have dangerous cargo and has no legitigitimate business in the US) comes near the US, it is inspected.
Third, track all business that our allies do with Iran. Not everyone in the world believes Iran is evil and some believe that money is more important than peace. If a truck from Iran goes to France and then loads cargo on a French flagged ship headed towards New York, we might want to inspect it early.
It goes without saying that intelligence is the most important part of my strategy. When problems stir up, just the presence of a carrier strike group can calm the situation down. But if they want to strike us, they will do it discretely, and persistently. Military power will do nothing to stop Iran unless it unseats the government (which I am not advising). It is not likely that Iran would pursue a suicidal strategy like this, but it would be wise to defend against it.
All of your suggestions are fine but hard to implement with limited resources. We are already attempting to do most of the things you suggest. Your plan is still playing defense, not eliminating the threat before it arrives, as you stated.
You say they are going to infiltrate our borders and strike from within and you also say they are going to strike from offshore. That pretty well covers the bases. It is a real threat and you are correct in all the possibilities. We are trying to cover them all but it ain't easy.
The thing that slows many countries down in nuclear weapons development is materials. For a fission bomb, the difficult materials are highly enriched uranium or plutonium. For a fusion bomb there are no difficult to get materials (deuterium can be extracted from seawater and tritium can be made by neutron bombarding lithium). For those who don't have expertise in how a fusion bomb works one variety uses a fission bomb to create high energy gamma rays which are reflected off of surfaces in the bomb which compresses and heats tritium and deuterium to fuse. The fission bomb is required (and is the hard part).
The theory of building nuclear weapons is probably pretty fine tuned by now in many countries. While they may not have materials, they have time to develop their theories. I would not say that it would be unlikely that Iran could develop a thermonuclear bomb (or a 'super' as US scientist called it) shortly after developing a fission bomb. It may seem a large step to go from a 20 kT yield to 10 MT yield (taking many years of development), but this is not so. Thermonuclear weapons for the most part can give a yield as big as the amount of 'fuel' you put into it. Once you learn how to direct the energy of a fission bomb to cause fusion, you can make as big of a bomb as you want (the Russians made a 60 MT monster).
This would lead to what the military historians would term: "very, very highly asymmetrical warfare".
Yeah, they are short term solutions. The long term solution is creating a greater threat in the region than the US. That will be done if our Iraq experiment works (by creating the biggest threat to people who hold power: popular opinion taking that power away). Unfortunately, I doubt Iraq will be considered a strong country for at least 10 years. I see no other solution short of invading Iran (which if we play our cards correctly will never be required).
However, I've read that for a thermonuclear bomb to work you need a fission bomb "trigger" that has much higher yield than the 20 kT you get from a fission bomb that could fit on top of a missile. That type of technology is extremely expensive to develop, to say the least.
The amusing thing is that the navy operates enough radars along the coast and would have a good idea where the missiles came from. We'd be on the vessel within six hours.I am not aware that the Navy maintains a 'picket line' along the coast; the best defense from off-coast threats is accountability of of all shipping vessels, and programs are underway and in place for just this purpose ...
However, I do want to remind you when that EMP was detected in Hawaii back in the early 1960'sThese were the very tenuous observations I refered to in the first post; I have been unable to ascertain that anything more than a series connected string of street lights popped a circuit breaker, and my suspicians are that a momentary burst of radiation produced additional exciation in a series of mercury vapor lamps which caused additional current to flow; an effect _not_ due to Electro-Magnetic Pulse, but rather incidental radiation exciting the gas in the bulb.
One can easily see this effect with aged Neon pilot lights; when they get old, a little light (like from a flashlight) shown on them is enough to 'excite' the Neon gas and cause the Neon pilot light to flicker on, to life, once again ...
EMP would be like having a very bad solar flare. There would be some issues, and if you have Satellite TV, you might have an issue or 3, but this wouldn't really affect the US as much as it would have 20 years ago.
Iran can't EMP the world. Nobody can anymore. The big nukes that are needed to do this aren't in inventory. Besides, we change out our electronics every three years anyway, so that's the max downtime before everything is restored and it would be more like two years because some is being changed out right now. Farah sounds rational on the Art Bell Show.
Thanks for the input. From the beginning I was suspicious this was another Y2K deal.
It's not so far-fetched but the mullahs would miss their favorite porn shows on satellite while we were performing repairs.
I think that alone would deter them. They're happier tossing out these little information bomblets and then reaping their hedge bets on the stock market.
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