Skip to comments.N.Korea May Carry Out Nuclear Test by June-Kyodo(preparation since March,plutonium device)
Posted on 04/29/2005 11:11:00 PM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
Fri Apr 29,10:13 PM ET
TOKYO (Reuters) - The United States has warned the International Atomic Energy Agency that North Korea has been preparing to carry out an underground nuclear test since March and could go ahead as early as June, Kyodo news agency said on Saturday.
The report, which quoted diplomatic sources in Vienna, came a day after the chief U.S. negotiator to stalled talks on Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions said Washington believed North Korea might be trying to harvest material for a nuclear bomb from a shut-down reactor.
According to the sources, who said the information was obtained by satellite photos and from within North Korea, Pyongyang was preparing to test a small-scale plutonium device.
The United States had called on China to urge North Korea to halt its preparations, but there were no signs that Beijing had done so, the sources said.
Japanese officials were unavailable for comment.
Last week, following a similar report, a senior U.S. administration official said that Washington had seen no evidence that North Korea was preparing for a nuclear weapons test, although it had seen "lots of stuff suggesting interesting activity."
On Friday, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill told reporters in Seoul that a North Korean plutonium reactor at Yongbyon had been shut down for close to three weeks and there could be an operation under way to reprocess nuclear material.
The shutdown and the possibility of a nuclear test were of great concern to nations trying to persuade Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear programs through six-party talks, he added.
In February, North Korea said it possessed nuclear weapons and was withdrawing from the talks, in which the United States, Japan, Russia, China and the two Koreas have taken part.
The last round took place in June 2004, and repeated efforts to restart the talks have failed.
So their plan is to set off the nuke, and celebrate 'the power of fatherland.'
I guess it doesn't matter now if I run my credit cards up
We know where, we know about when and should be able to narrow down the when even closer...
Now, If I were a "strategerizer", I'd think about targeting the entire area of the test with a few MIRVs (or something a little more high tech) . Good chance of taking out a big chunk of their nuclear bomb program infrastructure and personnel..... and blame it on a test gone wrong.
They were too busy preparing launch codes...
They were too busy preparing launch codes.
Along with S.Korea and Tawain. Lets see....That should complete the circle of Nuke capable countries surrounding China......I dont think they want that....!
... And let the liberals cry.
I have an impression that Bush knows a lot more than he let on. I think U.S. pretends that it is kept mostly in the dark about what goes on in N. Korea. A typical poker move.
Excellent insight. Bush is a poker player through-and-through, close to the vest and largely unreadable. It must drive our enemies nuts.
This would be a dangerous game. If the DPRK really has nukes - who tells us that they use it in the way we are thinking of? It is probably much easier to smuggle a nuclear warhead into a big city in America and detonate it there than shooting it with a ICBM. Kim Jong Il is probably working on 3-4 warheads at the same time. If the USAF would bomb their nuclear facilitys, they could respond with a nuclear terror strike. We wouldn't even know who the terrorist was (Osama?, Kim Jong Il?, al-Sarkawi?, Chirac? (huhu) etc. etc. etc). Not very funny. It is probably better and more effective to eliminate the "dear" leader through a good sniper or some poison in his coffee. If he and his offspring are wiped out, freedom will find a way.
BTW - those links about north Korea are much funnier than their dammed nukes:
http://www.kdvr.de (Sorry - in German but exremly dumb)
http://www.korea-dpr.com/ (The long loading times are a real eperience - must be a top-of-the-line server of their own production)
Maybe Kim Jung-il will stand really close to it to get a better look at the explosion! ;-)
This whole affair reminds me of Beijing Opera. Maybe because stylized, ancient and masked. With really strange music, hey!!!
Beijing always prides itself as a master of tangled intrigues. The trouble is that they could get caught in it, and the whole thing could blow up in their face. They would like to think that they are in a driver seat until the last minute. Russians show the similar tendency.
It is the common trait of old empires. They have their grand vision and the mastery of byzantine intrigues over many centuries. They tend to think that they can always work their way to imperial glory via their mastery of intrigues.
Let the Chia Bastard light the fuse and make the tangled web ensnare China, who may be the bigger player than N. Korea in this game, so they deserve it.
"Now, If I were a "strategerizer", I'd think about targeting the entire area of the test with a few MIRVs (or something a little more high tech) . Good chance of taking out a big chunk of their nuclear bomb program infrastructure and personnel..... and blame it on a test gone wrong."
Funny, I thought about a case of Ebola in Damascus and blame it on Saddams WMD program that moved to Syria.
We need to get direct access to A.Q.Khan and squeeze his nuts hard to get enough information and proof to blast South Korea and China out of their denial shell.
Hey Tiger remember you told me that you think that they test out in August boy that early celebration for Chia Pet Kim LOL!
That'd be to close to Israel, and the population is FAR more mobile than sub-saharan Africans.
That's the bs the dems want everyone to believe. They don't have to believe us. NK itself is admitting they have nukes.
AU Contraire, or AWW Nah!---spend a little time following the US Navy via NEWSSTAND for example. You'll notice about half our supercarriers are on station without anything to do. The other half are in various stages of overhaul and are RELOADING. The entire sub fleet minus the San Franciso is loaded FOR BEAR. Note particularly that the modified OHIO'S are coming on line with their quiver full of tomahawks. Note also that the US AIR FORCE, except for a little support work in Afg/Iraq , has nothing to do! The Marines consider Iraq a training excercise and would pack up instantly if the need arises. Maybe the Army is a little busy but SO WHAT? The first dumbass to to test your theory will spend a lifetime regretting it. Try to remember that our military is MOBILE in a way that has never been seen by anyone anywhere. Hannibal would be impressed.
When you say poker hand you seem to mean we need a large ground force available? We will never again use a large ground force in NK tho. Relax and enjoy it. So far as intelligence goes don't misunderestimate what we know---NK is highly observable, for instance, when it comes to hardware and holes in the ground.
The word is "misunderestimate "
I, for one, can't tolerate the idea of a nuclear Kim family -- they are way too nutty. Time to act.
"That's the bs the dems want everyone to believe. They don't have to believe us. NK itself is admitting they have nukes."
I am sure NK has or will very soon have nukes. And they are zany enough to actually use 'em if they decide to.
My point is that the world community (and the dems) will not help us in any capacity to preempt NK's nuke program.
If we go after NK, we will go it alone. Again we will have to do all the heavy lifting. If it needs to be done, then fine. Our Iraqi intelligence failure will give all of our "allies" the excuse they need to sit this one out.
Wrong. I suspect even Kim knows that's wrong. He may not realize how well prepared we are, but he knows we aren't defenseless.
Yes and no. It will give them an excuse, but when have they ever needed an excuse for their cowardice?
By all means, let us test their test. ;) We haven't had a good bonfire in a while, and we do need to be sure we can take out the other guy's arsenal.
I am no expert, but while it's certainly true that N. Korean artillery could wreak havoc around Seoul and kill vast numbers, I don't think an invasion of the south would go anywhere in the face of the airpower we could bring to bear. N. Korean columns and divisions would look like the 1991 "Highway of Death" within a very short time.... correct me if you have specific information about how N. Korean troops could move at will without being decimated from the air.
"Our Iraqi intelligence failure will give all of our "allies" the excuse they need to sit this one out."
Hmmm. How about re-wording that a little bit, like the European countries, Israel, and United States failures in Intel in some areas".
I know it is a subject in itself, but the hell if I will sit by and not hear blame also assigned to the Germans, French, Brits and Israel for less then accurate intel they passed on to us over the years regarding Iraq. I do not wish you to have to repond, I sense you are aware of how the intel was shared over the past fifteen years or so. Just wanted to make a note on this point. Just take the example of "curve ball" and the German connection. They could have been far clearer earlier on, that this chemist was a total waste of time, but no they baited us and played games, and would not even allow us to personally interview the guy much earlier on. Again, I don't want to screw throw the discussion off from the NK issue.
One element that seems to be going un-noticed in this dicussion is the fact that the South Korean military is not just going to stand by and watch the goops rush their borders. What is wrong with you guys? Between the airpower we can very quickly provide both in sea launched cruise missiles, Naval and Airforce bombers and air launched AG ordanance of obviously a very very wide variaty ...coordinated convential missle and artillery counter strikes by SK and American forces on the border and deeper in, etc.. The NK would be extremly foolish to attempt a ground invasion. As one person mentioned, actions taken in both Operation Desert Storm and OIF show that once we zero in on any form of concentrated enemy their ass is grassed in no time. And don't think the NK military leaders don't know this. Perhaps the "ereaser head" is a clone of Saddam. Good for him. We will wipe their military out within weeks, if truely required, with out having to send ground troops. Every known enemy installation could get blown away. His army would be totally demoralized after getting truly hammered. Then the Chinese would step in and say enough is enough, and once again there will be a sort of temporary truce, less the million man NK army, and any airforce that dared tried to penetrate the South.
Actually, our air power doesn't have very much to do at the current time.
This is not 1950 and a North Korean invasion will result in many "Highways of Death" for any sizeable force heading south.
That's how I see it---Li'l Kim needs his army to remain in power and there is NO WAY he is dumb enough to point it south and watch it disappear. The words "target rich environment" have a certain poetic sound when applied to the little buttdragger. His reported 60 mile rocket shot into the Sea of Japan today is but another indicator of how much of a weasel he his---still wants more rice---but note he didn't have the nerve to shoot OVER Japan again. I've got a case of beer that says Li'l kim isn't going to be in power by '08. Any takers?
The SGooks themselves don't seem to be terribly concerned about the prospect of a 20 mile demolition area developing on their north side. Unless they change their Rodney King policy I guess we shouldn't fret too much ABOUT THEM. The NGooks do have a pretty impressive 180 MM cannon, and we have to have plans in place to deal with them, But if they ever touch one off pointing south they have to realize it would be an act of SUEECIDE (remember Lantos).
"I've got a case of beer that says Li'l kim isn't going to be in power by '08. Any takers?"
I wouldn't have to place a bet against this prediction. The eraser head is not going to win anything other then a bullet in the head if he keeps pursuing his infantile ways. He is to much like Saddam in many ways to be a real bonified threat. He has nothing to gain by if they actually could, launch a nuclear missle at any given number of targets. Same with the Iran situation. People get to carried away with reading so so Intel reports made public. To launch a nuclear weapon on any country would show the world the justification to take out the aggressor country. If JK ever did such a thing then he invites a totally justified total strike on his country. The Chinese cannot duplicate what they where able to do in the Korean War. And who in Bieging wants to go up in a column of smoke and debris? If NK. destroyed any American city, then the world would have no excuse to be against us and for the oppresor. So as important as it is for us to somehow get rid of the little tyrant in alls best interests, I find it hard to believe his military folk are quite that suicidal in nature, to allow him to use some low yield nuclear device against another country. Of course the likes of maddam hillary will posture herself as one who is super concerned of an immediate threat against our nation, as she positions herself for the 2008 run. The WP will continue to write dreadful articles as how close we are to getting attacked by a mad man. And the world turns.
Ditto on the notion of Li'l Kim having a Saddam complex. We still owe the weasel for the Pueblo and various other axe murders, sneak attacks, etc. My bet is based on the notion that he doesn't have the cool to avoid just one more violent provocation---for three years running.
"We still owe the weasel for the Pueblo and various other axe murders, sneak attacks, etc. My bet is based on the notion that he doesn't have the cool to avoid just one more violent provocation---for three years running."
He truly is in a corner. His people hate him under their breath. His country is in poverty, with little hope to ever gain the respect or perhaps a little sympathy from the world.
He and his father have brought their country into near total ruin. Just like Saddam had done in Iraq. He continues to not have the formal support of the Chicoms and Russians. He is simply a rabid pud-knocker child who's dream of rule is coming to and end. He knows he cannot attack SK without lossing his military. All he can do is act out the ravings of a spoiled child full of evil intent. And GWB fully understands this. NK has boxed itself in. It may take a number of years before they truly have a missle system in place that can carry a nuclear warhead to the Hawaiin Islands or to our west coast. I don't see how he is going to be around that long. And surely whoever replaces him must face the realities of how bad off their country is, and take the required steps to change their ways. The Chicoms no longer need the likes of NK. NK is a thorn in their side. The Chicoms have obviously launched their way into world dominance both militarily and commercially. Why should they
permit NK to screw things up for them. The Russians no longer have much of a stake in NK. The cold war is supposedly over. Again NK no longer has the support of it's two former allies, or should I say masters. They are in a truly bad way. And the people of NK, and the military know this.
"US air strikes against WMD to protect the region (and the US) is the administration's current line of planning."
This would result in almost one million men marching due south, would almost mandate multiple nuke strikes just north of the DMZ to stop them and the 10 thousand artillary pieces that would be firing in support of them.
Your Chicom reference is on point. Since the start of the "great leap forward " about 30 years they have acquired a lot to lose and surely are not going to let the NGooks screw it up. Every Chinaman who wants one now has a refrigerator, one of the initial goals of the GLF. More importantly they have the electricity to run them and they are MOST PROUD of the newest hydro dam, Three Gorges, up the Yangtze. That dam will be the largest anywhere when complete. It also aids navigation by lifting ships up to 3,000 tons (I think) about 450 feet. Those locks are the weak link since they would be susceptible to a couple of tomahawk hits that would take out both shipping and power production. With that kind of strategic exposure the Chicoms ARE NOT itching for a make my day challenge.
Agree. The Chicoms have to much to lose if hostilities of anykind where to disrupt the continued flow of technology transferes, selling out companies to them, allowing them to maintain un-fair trade balances currency verse currency and flood our market with their cheap junk. They have all to gain by just continuing sucking us dry and staying neutral where required both in UN security council affairs as well as their local neighborhood. The eraser head has doomed his country to poverty. At least it provides the WP and others something to write about, after all they dare not write articles on how many things we have accomplished in Iraq in the way of building the infrastructure, etc.. I'll leave it at that.
What if it went off .....prematurely.....on their test bench? Just wondering.
There is some thought that the Chinese are putting the North Koreans up to this as part of a "borrowed knife" strategy. The thinking is that a nuclear-armed North Korea would be a huge headache for us, and our preoccupation by troubles elsewhere would tend to, shall we say, open up the Formosa Strait to passage by a Chinese invasion force.
"There is some thought that the Chinese are putting the North Koreans up to this as part of a "borrowed knife" strategy. The thinking is that a nuclear-armed North Korea would be a huge headache for us, and our preoccupation by troubles elsewhere would tend to, shall we say, open up the Formosa Strait to passage by a Chinese invasion force."
Thanks for those thoughts. Yes I am aware of that scenario to to degree. In many ways Tiawan is as crucial an issue as NK.
There is a lot of US monies (company & private) tied up in that country. And lets face it, the Chinese would love to march in a take over all the semiconductor, printed circuit baord, computer and commercial electronics industries for themselves. Billions of dollars invested over the years by US companies to set up house on that Island, would go down the drain. It sure is a super sensitive issue. Obviously if the Chicoms did invade with success, we also loss valuable air space and surface ship routes etc.. And open the door for making easier for them to allow their naval surface and naval air power to establish a much better hold in the whole western pacific rim between Korea down to the Philipines. As the Japanese used Formosa in the 30/40's, the Chicoms would like to duplicate that rule. As China builds it's air and naval power, it seems inevitable there is going to be a confrontation, in the way of conventioanl warfare. I see no way around the issue.