Posted on 05/24/2005 6:21:29 AM PDT by gridlock
OK, it's a vanity thread, but one with a purpose, IMHO. Please bear with me...
The current situation in Russia presents the United States with a major opportunity. Over the next twenty or thirty years, the great geopolitical struggles will be over living space and mineral resources. These items will become increasingly scarce and expensive.
China, in particular, will be in a position where they desperately need land for their growing population and raw materials to feed their industrial growth. Where will they go to get what they need?
The obvious answer is Eastern Russia. Russia is in the middle of a demographic collapse. They do not have the population or resources to hold onto their vast territory. It is literally there for the taking. Eventually, China will take it. They really have no choice in the matter.
So the question is, what is Russia to do?
The answer lies with the United States. The United States is the only power strong enough to secure the vast Russian East from Chinese encroachment. The United States has the conventional military might and the credible nuclear deterrent necessary to prevent Chinese expansion. Nature abhors a vacuum, so this space must be secured by somebody.
I propose a deal. The United States could purchase a vast tract of Russian territory, from the Pacific to the Jenisej River and along a line from Krasnojarsk to Najrambai Url. The purchase could be made for a combination of cash, debt, and a substantial interest in future development of mineral resources.
This vast land would be incorporated into the United Staes of America as a territory, and eventually as one or more states. The current population of this vast tract, as large as the Continental United States, is less than the population of Ohio. These people would be offered United States citizenship, and the overwheming majority would no doubt find this an attractive prospect.
The mineral resources in this territory could be leased to private development. These leases would provide the capital necessary to finance the venture.
It seems like fantasy, but it could be a reality. Russia is left with the unattractive choice of realizing something for this territory, or fighting a losing battle to hold it and realizing nothing in return. A deal like this could provide the capital necessary to turn the remaining Russias into a functioning modern state, and being relieved of the burden of defending the vast frontier would not hurt things a bit.
It is a deal that is in the interest of all parties, except the Chinese. And they are not really parties at all, are they?
Seems to make sense to me.
Therefore, it could never happen.
Great idea. Oil, minerals, a staging area for our eventual go round with the Chinese, AND we'd be "accross the street" from REALLY GREAT takeout.
Yes. Well, at the time the USSR broke up, its population was making about $10/month, US. At that price, we should have bought the whole country.
The downside, of course, is that it would be nothing but an awfully expensive wildlife preserve by the time the watermelon party got through.
It's still not too late...
The Russians will never part with the Urals or Russia proper, but who ever goes out into Siberia? These lands represent nothing but a liability and a tremendous hazard to Russia. They are literally better off without them.
If they could use a sale to provide much needed capital, they could turn Russia into the land they have always dreamed of, and being rid of the indefensible frontier would eliminate the almost certain disaster that would follow Chinese expansion.
Not to mention how cheap it would be to visit the Great Wall.
Or that Mongolia would probably REALLY LIKE the idea of American tourists transiting through their country.
Although... you'd probably see thousands of illegal Mongol immigrants trying to invade our new, expanded country.
IE - The Mongol Hordes redux.
:-)
If the environmentalists were sensible people (I know, it is a weak argument that starts with a false premise) they would realize that US control of this region, even with aggressive mineral development, would be a tremendous environmental boon. Development would happen under the control of US environmental laws, which are orders of magnitude more protective of the environment that the current activities in what is, basically, a lawless frontier.
The Russians may be reluctant to sell because there are millions of skeletons, both real and figurative, hidden in those parts.
Except in this case, you might be buying a war with China.
Yes, we may be headed toward a war with China, but, then again, maybe not. What we know for sure is that China is more likely to go to war over land right next it than land 4000 miles away.
All in all, I'd rather China be fighting Russia than fighting us.
I think the USA can get the same (living space and mineral resources) in Canada.
Canada is near, no need to confront China and with small (somewhat 35 mln people) population.
That is not the historic reality.
Don't sell the Russians short in this regard. Their nuclear capability is unquestioned, and WWII showed they are willing to commit (and lose if necessary) huge numbers of soldiers to defend their territory.
Yeppers, but the historical Russian xenophobia would probably preclude such a deal. They won't want to sell a hectare, let alone a huge area.
This same idea was floated in an article in Playboy back in the late '70s or early '80s. The only difference was that we would lease the land, pay for any and all development of it, we would get a substantial portion of the returns on the minerals and timber resources, the rest going to Russia, and at the end of the lease (50 years or something), they would get it back in a more developed condition (railways, highways, industrial facilities. The only thing taht would go would be the temporary cities created to extract the resources).
I thought also that once the Russian population of the territory is given American citizenship, they move into the the "old" USA. So, who will do developing of the natural resources?
Oil Drillers. And for that reason, they would never, ever sell.
Ummm, we're already huffin 'n puffin in Iraq so unless we start up the draft, we just don't have it.
I can't imagine a resolve to protect the vast borders against China which could/would involve military action, if we look at the lack of resolve against protecting our border with Mexico which doesn't require any military action.
Not quite. Actually the population decrease has been reversing for the past 4 years and the average number of birth is up presently from 1.2 to 1.58 and increasing. Abortions are illegal after 12 weeks, Christian education is in the schools and military and the Church is pushing for a full abortion ban. Furthermore, they are experiencing positive immigration from Israel, Ukraine, Belaruss and Khazakstan.
Siberia that borders China is a vast mountainous and forested area, not something you can drive your tanks across. Actually, the shortest direct route to the northern Siberian oil fields is 2,000km of mountainous forests.
Besides 1. there is massive oil wealth there, gold, titanium, etc, only a fool would give it up
2. we are so far in debt paying for that piece of land would make the dollar's worth less then the Mexican peso.
Oh, about 20 million Russians. Siberians are some of the craziest nationalists you'll find. Further more, Sakalin and the east Siberian oil fields are some of the richest (and hardest to get to) in the world. Only a total fool would give them up. Russians are still agitated about the Tsar selling Alaska, I highly doubt they'd sell Siberia.
Would we sell any of our land? Say Hawaii or Alaska? I hardly doubt we would. Only traitors would sell portions of their country. It was one thing when distant unpopulated colonies upon which few if any of your people ever walked were sold, another thing when it's the main reserve of your national mineral wealth and 15% of your population lives on it.
Certainly not those two, but what about Massachusetts or Rhode Island?:)
The massive mineral wealth is not exploitable because Russia is not functional. Without political stability, nobody is going to make the massive investments necessary to extract those riches. However, if the territory were stabilized and governed in a rational fashion, it would be extremely attractive to development.
There is enough of a differential in value there to make the deal a win/win for everybody, even the Chinese, who would be the biggest customer.
That depends. If we were an economic basket case like Russia and somebody came along and offered the right price...
The point is, that with revenue sharing on the mineral rights, Russia can profit from the mineral wealth of the region through such a deal. Right now the resources are basically undevelopable because it is impossible to operate in Russa. Oil under the ground is worthless if it must stay under the ground, and I don't see how Russia can get out of the box they have put themselves in.
If they don't sell it to us, the Chinese are just going to steal it, anyway.
Holy hannah, Gridlock, when you think big, you think BIG!
I like it . . .
Problem is, they're not an economic basket case. By Purchasing Power Parity (that's the comparison of the cost of a basket of goods in each country, ie: a dollar in America will buy you a soda, a dollar in Russia will buy you a loaf of bread and 4 lbs of potatoes) Russia's economy is the 7th largest in the world. Go look up the CIA world fact book for proof.
Russia's quite functional these days. A flat tax system that most Americans would prefer over our own, increased birth rates, a booming economy and a government treasury flush with oil money.
Without political stability, nobody is going to make the massive investments necessary to extract those riches.
Putin's not my favorite guy, but he has done a decent job of stabilizing Russian politics, for better or for worse.
Really? Better tell that to the Japanese, Chinese and S.Koreans who all just sank around 20 billion each into it. Also better tell that to Haliburton, Exxon, Shell and BP all who have multi-billion dollar projects running.
They already are. And besides, as it is, China uses America as an economic colony. They buy our raw resources and dump their finished goods.
Who the hell would want them? Well the Chinese could set up a prison colony in Rhode Island, but other then that???
Have you ever heard of a lawn sale or a garage sale? Trust me, people will buy anything. Just staple flyers around the U.N. for next Sat/Sun and you'll see!:)
Tom Clancy wrote "The Bear and the Dragon" about China going after the "northern resources area" (Siberia). this was at least 10 years ago.
Mexican immigrants?
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