Posted on 06/08/2005 9:52:35 PM PDT by CHARLITE
You don't need a fortune cookie to learn that China isn't playing straight with the rest of the world. The men in Beijing may be taking some of their clues from the most important page of Mao Tse-tung's Little Red Book: "Every Communist must grasp the truth, 'Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun.'"
We've been lulled into thinking the Chinese brand of "free markets" will move that country toward democracy. Maybe someday, eventually, it will. But free markets must be accompanied by personal freedoms and representative government, and that isn't happening. In fact, there are disturbing signs of a military build-up and deception about it at the highest levels of the Chinese government today.
It's the Chinese armory that concerns the defense secretary. "I just look at the significant rollout of ballistic missiles opposite Taiwan, and I have to ask the question: 'If everyone agrees the question of Taiwan is going to be settled in a peaceful way, why this increase in ballistic missiles opposite Taiwan?'"
The Rumsfeld speech reflects the buzz of the China watchers in Washington, where the publication of a new book expands the latest thinking. "China: The Gathering Threat," by Constantine Menges, takes its title from Winston Churchill's famous warning about the lessons of World War II: "There never was a war in all history easier to prevent by timely action ... but no one would listen. We surely must not let that happen again."
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtontimes.com ...
...and because we are at the other end of an economic rifle barrell (visa vi, the huge number of US bonds held by the Chinese government), we are powerless to do anything unless we are willing to gut what's left of our economy when they dump our debt on the open market. Next stop -economic oblivion and the Twilight Zone.
My big concern is their new AShM capability. Some of their new "ship killers" are damned scary.
The jury is still out on this. Odds are they can't do very much. The ChiComs have a lot on paper but very little in reality.
I remember the stink about when we (spy action ?) let the USSR get the technology (from Norway, Sweden - ?) to make quiter props for their subs.
Did that stop us from being able to track them? Hell no.
China is quickly becoming the new cold war bad guy, with an intersting twist.
Military wanna be, economic (at least for the US) heavyweight.
Ah, the age old saying.....Nuke 'em, nuke 'em now!
LVM
The best ASM they have is a poor copy of a Sunburn missile. The Sunburn is not considered a serious threat to the USN. It's pretty old technology, and we know all about it and how to defend against it.
Also they only have a handfull(3-4) of ships capable of launching it. Those ships are actually ex-Soviet era as well. We probably know where they are at all times. It's actually kind of easy to do this as the PLAN hardly ever leaves port, except for the odd sub run into the Indian ocean.
It was the Japanese that sold numerical control milling machines to the ChiComs. Sadly they were made in America.
Sorry, I meant Soviets, not Chicoms in my last.
"except for the odd sub run into the Indian ocean."
Or into the waters around Okinawa. :-) I know someone who worked in Japan (Yokosuka) when they served in the Navy. This same person also worked in SOSUS. When the story about a sub spotted near Okinawa broke a few months ago, this former CMDR said, matter of factly, that is was a Chinese sub. A few days later, the news oulets confirmed that the "mystery sub" was Chinese.
Yes. If/when that happens you can say hello to 10% mortgage rates and the end of the housing boom, which is the only thing powering this economy.
--Prevailing "conventional wisdom" circa 1930s
People in our govt see certain people willing to 'play ball' on issues so no need to sink the whole ship over it.
Its cheaper for us to keep China as is, rather than to try to rebuild it after things fall apart....
Plus lots of people will probably die should we go all out to put them under. We are talking civil war and popular unrest in a country with a billion people...
There was also a statement by the Japanese Defense Minister that it had been tracked right from it's pier. While that was more than he should have said, I suspect it was true. That particular sub class (Han) is one of their nuke boats but by our standards it's a target. The boat actually tried to get to the pacific by going through some Japanese Islands. The Japanese in response have stationed several hundred of their Marines to these Islands. (My guess is to protect them as potential military installations.) At any time they (or us) could have put a helicopter over the top of the sub and dropped a torpedo on it's head.
FL-7 Feilong-7
China and Russia are the only two countries to have successfully developed supersonic anti-ship missiles, which represent the future direction of anti-ship weapons. The majority of anti-ship missiles are high subsonic. In addition to developing the C-101 and C-301 supersonic anti-ship missiles which are fairly large in size, China has developed the more compact Feilong (Flying Dragon)-7 supersonic anti-ship missile which can be carried on airplanes and warships. The Feilong-7 has an effective range of 32 kilometers and a speed of Mach 1.4. It has powerful anti-jamming capability and its supersonic flight makes terminal interception difficult. The warhead of the "Feilong-7" can pierce solid armor and destroy large and medium-sized surface warships.
Some folks think that because we won the cold war that communism is dead. Far from it. China has never given up the quest for world domination. Every time you buy an item made in that slave state, you are paying for a bullet that will be used against us.
dang, and I was all set to ping ya to this...
Now your thinking straight.
We just got to get a few million more Americans woke up to the fact that those people really are out to sink us first opportunity.
China does have ICBMs and other nuclear weapons that could reach the USA if unimpeded. But although our military doesn't know the extent of Chinese nuclear force, all warheads would likely be stopped before reaching targets here (as we have at least three levels of that part of the umbrella defense built--each to a different extent).
Here's a link to an Adobe Acrobat file of a periodical. The information in it is scattered and incomplete but somewhat informative. A Congressman had more information (though not as recent), but I haven't relocated the link here, yet.
China's Nuclear Force Modernization
http://www.nwc.navy.mil/press/npapers/np22/NP22.pdf
And I'm sure that there's much about here and there that we don't know. Even the aircraft buffs and other watchers (like the FAS) haven't put any new gadgets on their sites for a very long time, so it's obvious that our defense has been trying to go more opaque (which is a good thing).
We've known about some of China's silo-based stuff for a long time. What's interesting is that road-mobile, solid fuel ICBMs have most likely been staged, and their submarine-based ordnance--although it's not so mobile in this direction (due to likely detection)--has enough range to justify keeping track of it.
Some current events in R&D are really interesting. For one, new air items (missiles ten times the speed of currently staged missiles, scramjets, new detection tech.,...) will probably make the Air Force yet more important soon.
Toshiba was the company, if memory serves. I found an article about the whole sorry incident that covered a lot more ground than my slight memory of those events now almost 20 years ago:
....
On May 27 1987 the Japanese police arrested two senior executives of Toshiba Machine, who had been in charge of designing and exporting machine tools to the Soviet Union, for selling four nine-axis in 1982-1984 and 4 five-axis milling machines in 1984 to the Soviets, in violation of COCOM provisions. The executives admitted the charges. Based on the Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade Control Law Toshiba was banned from conducting business with communist bloc nations for one year, and C.Itoh. a Japanese trading company was similarly banned for three months. The one year ban for Toshiba Machine was the most severe punishment ever issued based on the Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade Control Law. Exports to communist nations account for 12% of Toshiba Machine's total exports or about 5 billion yen.
MITI had reportedly been informed about the transaction as early as December 1985 but did not act until prompted by the US Defense Department in the autumn of 1986. In its export application. Toshiba Machine falsely described the machinery as two-axis machine tools. Anything over two-axis violates COCOM. Indeed, according to some reports in the Japanese press (the YOMIURI newspaper) "MITI officials recommend particular steps to be taken to get around restrictions of the COCOM regulations." MITI denies the charges.
A network of seabed listening devices and ships around Greenland, Iceland and the United Kingdom follow Soviet submarines, but the milling machines have made the propellers thinner and quieter. No less than Prime Minister Nakasone and MITI minister Tamura have admitted that the sales of the milling machines by Toshiba Machinery were responsible for the lower propeller noise in Soviet submarines. In July 1987 Japanese Prime Minister Nakasone blasted Toshiba Machine for betraying Japan. (Engineers of Toshiba Machine admitted that they had assembled the devices in Leningrad shipyards.)
According to Hitori Kumagai, chief Moscow representative of Wako Koeki trading company and who informed COCOM of the violations by Toshiba Machine, for Japanese trading companies operating Moscow, "Russian business is delicious, especially dangerous business. Illegal machines contain profits." Indeed, he claimed that most of thee small companies serving Moscow business could not survive without forbidden sales. According to an article he wrote for the prestigious BUNGEI SHUNJU magazine:
Probably all of these (50-plus) trading companies have at least once violated Japanese export control laws. I do not have evidence, but having engaged in trade with the Soviet Union for many years. I am almost convinced they have...Japanese customs inspectors are expert at discovering contraband drugs and jewels, but appear to have less concern about whether certain high tech products violate COCOM rules or not." according to Kumagai. THE JAPAN TIMES. 7/19/87, p.l.
American experts believe it will cost the US $30 billion to recover its position lost by Toshiba's indiscretion. Assistant Secretary of Commerce Paul Freedenberg told Congress that the transaction was the most significant transfer of sensitive technology to the Soviets during the past decade with profound deleterious effects on the US strategic posture.
The US Congress is studying legislation that would ban sales in the US of products of Toshiba Corporation and its affiliates. The House of Representatives voted to ban the sale of Toshiba products at US military stores. Exports to the US account for 10% of the company's total sales. The Japanese have tried to argue that the scandal involved only Toshiba Machine, an independent subsidiary of Toshiba Corporation in which Toshiba owns only 50.2% of the shares. American government leaders in both the administration and the Congress have been dissatisfied with the sanctions imposed on Toshiba Machine by the Japanese government and do not buy arguments that the parent company should not be punished. According to Senator Dale Bumpers: "If we were in wartime and you could locate the culprits you would try them for high treason. But it's not wartime and all we do here is punish them economically."
As a result of Toshiba's indiscretion, the US Army cancelled a contract with Toshiba on guided missile technology. The US Air Force also decided to review a $100 million bid by Toshiba for 90,000 lap top computers. It ultimately gave the contract to Zenith. The Defense Department has stopped all contracts with Toshiba Corp. The US Department of Commerce stripped the US subsidiary of Toshiba of its blanket authority to export products. Henceforth, any exports from the US by the firm will require approval for each transaction.
The president of Toshiba Machine resigned in May 1987 and both the president and chairman of Toshiba Corporation resigned in early July. Toshiba cancelled plans to display its goods in Moscow for an International exhibition in July 1987. Toshiba Corporation also launched a massive advertising effort in major American newspapers and magazines, running full page ads apologizing to the American public.
The president of Wako Koeki Co.. which had acted as intermediary in the Toshiba Machine transaction. also resigned in June, 1987.
REVISION TO FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND FOREIGN TRADE CONTROL LAW.
The main objective of the US administration as a result of the scandal is said to be to encourage Japan to tighten up its export screening process and it looks like that will be achieved. An amendment to the Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade Control law has been drawn up, approved by the Cabinet and submitted to the current session of the Diet. Enactment is considered highly likely. The main provisions of the amendment involve the following measures:
1. Extension of the statute of limitations from three years to five years.
2. Increasing penalties from one million yen or three years in jail to two million yen ($14,000) or five years
3. Government officials will be given authority to enter factories and offices in order to make inspections.
Trade in goods and services that might endanger international peace and security would be banned and the export of goods banned under COCOM would be punished.
5. Export or import transactions could be banned for three years instead of the present one year maximum.
6. Due to pressures from American congressmen, the Foreign Ministry and Diet members from Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party, the monopoly of the Ministry of International Trade and Industry in approving these types of exports has been weakened. Although the precise provisions are vague, the Foreign Minister "May give his opinion to the Minister of International Trade and Industry when he deems it especially necessary for the maintenance of international peace and security." This is thought to mean that the Economic Affairs Bureau of the Foreign Ministry will monitor MITI's COCOM related export licenses and the Foreign Ministry will not otherwise be able to affect Japanese trade with communist nations. Provisions will also be made for liaison activities with the Self Defense Agency, the Justice Ministry and the Customs Bureau of the Ministry of Finance.
OTHER MEASURES. In addition to the amendment to the Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade Control Law other measures were also adopted by the Japanese government in order to prevent future occurrences of the problem. Specifically:
1. MITI will seek to increase its COCOM related inspectors to 80 in the next fiscal year, up from 40 at present. This compares to 500 COCOM inspectors at the US Commerce Department and 150 at the US Defense Department.
2. Japan will increase steeply its contributions to COCOM. presently estimated at $40,000 per year out of a total COCOM budget of $3 million per year 1/3 of which is underwritten by the US government.
3. Japan will accept a special envoy from the US who will instruct the Japanese on how to tighten export controls on strategic goods.
4. MITI has requested 140 industry associations in Japan to draw up their own guidelines in order to control illegal exports to communist nations.
---The Japanese may have the last laugh however. Toshiba may have lost the $100 million contract to sell lap-top computers to the Pentagon, but in essence the Japanese still got the contract. Zenith ultimately won the contract, but the machines will be made by Sanyo Electric of Japan, and provided to Zenith on an original equipment manufacturer (OEM) basis. Indeed, according to Japanese press reports the Pentagon discretely asked Toshiba if it could build the computers at its US factory before the Pentagon backed down due to possible negative publicity ramifications.
---Although reports had it that US Defense Secretary Weinberger would ask for compensation from the Japanese when he visited Japan in late June, he appears to have gotten something else probably dearer to the hearts of the Reagan administration. The Japanese agreed to work closely with the Americans to develop new advanced anti- submarine techniques. Shortly thereafter Japan also agreed to join the SDI Star Wars project, after stalling for months.
ADDITIONAL SECURITY LEAKS. Japan has found other cases recently where defense related information has been sold to the Soviets. It appears that a representative of Aeroflot paid an employee of Tokyo Aircraft Instrument Co. for information on flight management systems and the design of a 16 bit microprocessor used in the system. It violates COCOM to provide information on such 16 bit microprocessors to the Soviet bloc. The Japanese employee of the company turned himself in and confessed. The Soviets also paid the employee 500.000 yen for information on the FYX transport plane currently under development, including a revolutionary turboprop engine.
THE JAPAN LAWLETTER, April 1987. By Roderick Seeman
4/87
You are Soooooooooo Correct....
Quote: "Everybody knows the Japs can only make crappy toys. Their fighters planes are pathetic little things. Their Navy is a joke, they could never make anything as sophisticated as our American submarines and torpedos. They are just cross-eyed little fellows, and they would never dare to start a war against America."
--Prevailing "conventional wisdom" circa 1930s
That would make an excellent tagline
Yes, but they've forgotten one very important war tactic: "Take out your enemy's manufacturing prowess". Oh, wait, never mind - they already did that...
Correct! Meanwhile, their state-commercial enterprises have crossed over into the facist model, not the socialist one. They'll soon be like Imperial Japan on steroids.
Re your #5:
Would that be the proverbial "SQVAL" hypercavitating torpedoes?
I've said for years that Clinton's real legacy will be the eventual destruction of the US economy, and the coming of the Second Cold War.
RE:
" There are advantages to a neo-industrial, energy-dependent China. This is one of them."
Better "Neo" industrial than "Non" industrial, eh?
And we're not as "energy dependant" than the PRC?
How much heavy industry do we have left here in the USA?
It was heavy industry and trained labor force that saved our bacon in WW-II; where have they gone, pray tell?
Oh; that's right.... China.
We might have a slight advantage in air superiority, but any dustup with China would be economically, if not strategicly, catastrophic not only for participants, but for the whole World.
But they seem to have a plan to take us over, or at least marginalize us economically without firing a shot.
And ya know what?; We LET 'em!
What they're really trying to do is outrun a civil war. I don't think they'll make it, though.
My reason for saying the jury is still out on the Chinese ICBMs is that they have what on paper looks good. But the actual quaility is in doubt. For example the Han class subs look good on paper, but they suffer from radiation leaks and have to surface to launch missiles. So they don't spend a lot of time at sea.
Most of their stuff and military are static and don't perform excercises to keep them sharp. Their fleet as such spends 90+% of the time tied to the pier. Their aircraft don't do a lot of training.
What about the U.S. and the French?
No friggin' way.
Stop making excuses for the sorry sack of crap...
Wasn't Clinton responsible for taking the vetting process for exporting dual-use products (those with a potential military application) away from a responsible, defense-oriented agency (can't remember which), and giving it to the Commerce department, which was then run by Ron Brown?
That irresponsible (stupid AND treasonous) action loosened things up and ALLOWED Loral and others to put profit before United States security.
Bill Clinton ALLOWED our enemies to become stronger through his irresponsible actions, and emboldened them (including terrorists) through his cowardly inaction.
And by the way, it seems more than a coincidence that Ron Brown died in an "accident" just before an investigation into the Commerce department commenced, doesn't it?
Bill, Hillary, Janet, and the rest were busy little buggers during their 8 year reign of terror, weren't they?
As far as how Clinton looks...
It would be a form of "poetic justice" (given what he has wrought on this country) if the f**ker is dying of AIDs acquired during his adulterous escapades (no, I'm NOT a "compassionate" conservative when it comes to enemies, both foreign and domestic, of the people of the United States and our Constitution).
Of course Billy Jeff is not long for this world. He's gonna die sometime before November 2008 when Hillary! needs some sympathy votes.
What do you mean "Whats left of our economy"? Who is doing better? How would that gut our economy? Do you think there would be no market for our bonds? Despite all we are still the strongest economy and government in the world so why would our bonds become worthless? If they would be devalued wouldn't that hurt the Chinese as much or more than us? Why would China destroy this asset and their largest customer at the same time? Isn't that economic suicide for them rather than us?
Look at the EU. They too were trying to reduce us to a 2nd rate country while elevating themselves. They touted the strength of the Euro while denigrating the dollar, the wonders of the Airbus and all the orders they were stealiong from Boeing. How did that turn out? (Was Soros involved?) Looks to me like they are on the ropes rather than us.
America haters like to crow about how bad and stupid we are but we are the ones in the cat bird seat, not them, and they hate it, if they recognize it at all.
Sorry, I forgot to indicate that the text was taken directly from the FAS page on Chinese missile systems.
Completely justifies STAR WARS WEAPONRY -Part II...IMO.
To: Flavius
Yup! You got a live one!
This is why I refuse to buy Toshiba-branded products to this day. I think they paid some hokey 6 figure fine at the end of this. This single act has cost the taxpayers of this country billions to recover from this in terms of submarine finding technology.
Supersonic or subsonic, they are impressive the way they skim across the water just feet above the surface. I remember reading & hearing about the French Exocets used by the Argentinians against the British shipping during the Falklands war. Hate to be on a ship when one of those hit.
Did you finally get your Velveeta?
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