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Global Warming May Play Role in Hurricane Intensity
Live Science ^ | 6/16/05 | Michael Schirber

Posted on 06/16/2005 12:21:50 PM PDT by anniegetyourgun

Climate change could make future hurricanes stronger, but whether the effect is measurable is still a matter of debate. It is also unknown whether it will change the total number of storms.

Kevin Trenberth from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) claims that warmer oceans and increased moisture could intensify showers and thunderstorms that fuel hurricanes.

"Trends in human-influenced environmental changes are now evident in hurricane regions," Trenberth said. "These changes are expected to affect hurricane intensity and rainfall, but the effect on hurricane numbers remains unclear. The key scientific question is how hurricanes are changing."

Sea-surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic – the breeding ground for most U.S. hurricanes – have been the warmest on record over the last decade. Across the globe, the amount of water vapor over the oceans has increased by about 2% since 1988.

Computer models show that these climate changes will push hurricane intensities toward extreme hurricanes, Trenberth said. Moreover, the added moisture in the air will produce heavier rains and increased flooding when the hurricanes make landfall.

There is uncertainty, however, about how well the models account for all the inputs that might affect hurricane strength.

“In the models, an increase in sea surface temperature could make more intense systems,” said Philip Klotzbach, who was not involved in the present work. “But the models do not account for changes in wind patterns that might tend to tear apart hurricanes.”

Klotzbach said that the effect of global warming on hurricanes may end up being small. He said it is hard to notice any difference because the “signal gets swamped by year to year variability.”

According to Chris Landsea of NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory, there is evidence for natural swings between high and low hurricane activity that extend for 25-40 years.

“The last ten years have been busy for the U.S. – similar to what we experienced between the 1920s and 1960s,” Landsea said.

He thought that global warming could have an impact on hurricanes, but he quoted one study that predicted in 80 years only a five percent change in wind speeds due to increases in heat-trapping greenhouse gases.

“It doesn’t mean there is zero effect,” he said. “But that’s hardly measurable.”

Even with large swings in one region, the total number of big storms across the globe each year does not change by much. Historically, when hurricane activity increased in the Atlantic, there was a corresponding decrease in typhoon activity in the Pacific, and vice versa, so the global hurricane frequency has remained steady over the years.

Klotzbach and William Gray, both of Colorado State University, have made hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic. The current 2005 predictions are 15 named storms (up to the letter ‘M’), of which eight are expected to become hurricanes. Four may become major hurricanes.

Not all of these storms will reach land. Predicting how storms will move is highly uncertain and may have little to do with global warming.

"There is no sound theoretical basis for drawing any conclusions about how anthropogenic climate change affects hurricane numbers or tracks, and thus how many hit land," Trenberth said

In 2004, four hurricanes struck Florida and 10 tropical cyclones or typhoons hit Japan. These unprecedented numbers were at least partly due to large-scale circulation features that drove the events toward land.


TOPICS: Culture/Society
KEYWORDS: globalwarming; hurricanes; noaa; wereallgonnadie
Headlines of the future:

Warming may play role in wealth disparities.
Warming may play role in childhood diseases.
Warming may play role in weight gain.
Warming may play role in divorce.
Warming may play role in gas prices.
Warming may play role in dog attacks.
Warming may play role in traffic fatalities.
Warming may play role in food poisoning.
Warming may play role in required overtime.
Warming may have played role in Bush election.

1 posted on 06/16/2005 12:21:51 PM PDT by anniegetyourgun
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To: anniegetyourgun

To be fair, no one is questioning global warming, only its cause.


2 posted on 06/16/2005 12:24:34 PM PDT by cubram
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To: anniegetyourgun

What a hot steaming load of shi'ite. Everyone knows that global warming comes from the hot gas liberals spew into the atmosphere!


3 posted on 06/16/2005 12:25:29 PM PDT by sheik yerbouty
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To: anniegetyourgun

Here's more:

-Global Warming Plays Role in N. Florida Snowstorm
-Global Warming blamed for Vegas Casino Fire
-Global Warming Linked to Teen Pregnancy


4 posted on 06/16/2005 12:25:35 PM PDT by RockinRight (Conservatism is common sense, liberalism is just senseless.)
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To: cubram

Soon it will be worldwide common knowledge that the U.S. is responsible for the bad weather everywhere. Really.


5 posted on 06/16/2005 12:26:04 PM PDT by Mister Baredog ((Minuteman at heart, couch potato in reality))
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To: anniegetyourgun

Hurricanes are governed within a long term cycle, and we are climbing out of the lower part of the curve right now.

Frequency and intensity will continue upward for about 20 years, and unless the earth turns into a snowball, that's the story.


6 posted on 06/16/2005 12:29:14 PM PDT by bill1952 ("All that we do is done with an eye towards something else.")
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To: cubram
"To be fair, no one is questioning global warming, only its cause."

Well, to be fair, they aren't questioning global warming - only it's cause. Not everyone buys the global warming stuff...

Oh, and by the way, welcome to FR.

7 posted on 06/16/2005 12:29:25 PM PDT by LibSnubber (liberal democrats are domestic terrorists)
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To: anniegetyourgun

Warming KY may play a role in increased Viagra sales

;^}


8 posted on 06/16/2005 12:30:51 PM PDT by TexasTransplant (NEMO ME IMPUNE LACESSET)
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To: anniegetyourgun
Jackson Ohio June 16th 2005 Teperature at 10:30 this morning was 69 degrees Farenheit.

Global Warming?

9 posted on 06/16/2005 12:31:23 PM PDT by Mad Dawgg ("`Eddies,' said Ford, `in the space-time continuum.' `Ah,' nodded Arthur, `is he? Is he?'")
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To: anniegetyourgun


can I blame global warming on my vertigo...and the reason I got sick yesterday after eating a plate of mexican food giving rise to the use of a sick day.


10 posted on 06/16/2005 12:32:07 PM PDT by in hoc signo vinces ("Soylent green is people!")
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To: anniegetyourgun

No, it is the oncoming Ice Age.


11 posted on 06/16/2005 12:32:53 PM PDT by bmwcyle (Washington DC RINO Hunting Guide)
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To: Mad Dawgg

Teperature = Temperature


12 posted on 06/16/2005 12:33:02 PM PDT by Mad Dawgg ("`Eddies,' said Ford, `in the space-time continuum.' `Ah,' nodded Arthur, `is he? Is he?'")
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To: cubram

Count me in the column of questioning global Warming.

Sheeeeeeeessssh


13 posted on 06/16/2005 12:33:18 PM PDT by TexasTransplant (NEMO ME IMPUNE LACESSET)
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To: anniegetyourgun

My own favorite headline ...

Sun may play role in global warming


14 posted on 06/16/2005 12:33:51 PM PDT by Tarpon
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To: cubram

I remember ole Al giving a speech on Warming in NYC. It happened to be one of the worst winters in years.


15 posted on 06/16/2005 12:35:32 PM PDT by TGOGary (I would blow my brains out before ever wearing a blue beret.)
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To: TGOGary
"It happened to be one of the worst winters in years."

And thus proof of global warming.

16 posted on 06/16/2005 12:37:37 PM PDT by avg_freeper (Gunga galunga. Gunga, gunga galunga)
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To: anniegetyourgun
"There is no sound theoretical basis for drawing any conclusions about how anthropogenic climate change affects hurricane numbers or tracks, and thus how many hit land," Trenberth said

In other words, there was no valid scientific reason for writing and publishing this article.

17 posted on 06/16/2005 12:38:36 PM PDT by The Electrician ("Government is the only enterprise in the world which expands in size when its failures increase.")
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To: Tarpon

According to some scientists, increased sun spot activity has contributed to global warming.


18 posted on 06/16/2005 12:39:41 PM PDT by cubram
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To: cubram
"According to some scientists, increased sun spot activity has contributed to global warming."

And according to other scientists global warming has contributed to increased sun spot activity.

Either way: Bush, my SUV and the USofA are ALL to blame.
19 posted on 06/16/2005 12:45:58 PM PDT by mad puppy ( "He's with me!" And I'm with W.)
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To: Mad Dawgg

Average temperature for the Northern San Joaquin Valley today is 87. Predicted high today is 70 with rain. Yeah, global warming alright.


20 posted on 06/16/2005 12:46:45 PM PDT by w1andsodidwe (Jimmy Carter allowed radical Islam to get a foothold in Iran.)
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To: cubram
>>>"According to some scientists, increased sun spot activity has contributed to global warming"<<<

ANY Layman or better yet... "It is Obvious to the most casual observer that "Global Warming" is a Watermelon Ploy"

The Elephant in the room is "WHY" don't get called on it.

A pothole on a busy street is but an inconvenience to a citizen motorist, to a Politician it is a Vote.
21 posted on 06/16/2005 12:48:27 PM PDT by TexasTransplant (NEMO ME IMPUNE LACESSET)
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To: anniegetyourgun

I'm sure global warming does affect hurricanes, as does global cooling and since the earth is always either warming or cooling, hurricanes are always being affected by one of them.


22 posted on 06/16/2005 1:34:37 PM PDT by Jim_Curtis
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To: anniegetyourgun

Warming may play a role in the crappiest, rainiest, coldest spring in 30 plus years in Northern California (raining today and snowing in the high country....).... Global Warming ... ah, yeah, right! :-)


23 posted on 06/16/2005 1:38:03 PM PDT by GOP_1900AD (Stomping on "PC," destroying the Left, and smoking out faux "conservatives" - Take Back The GOP!)
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To: Mister Baredog

I think you're on to something there. We are, after all, the source of all evil on the planet....


24 posted on 06/16/2005 1:44:46 PM PDT by anniegetyourgun
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To: cubram

It is partially, but not entirely, correct that no one doubts the fact of warming. No one doubts that the solar cycle has generated a global warming trend for roughly the past two centuries, following the "little ice age" that preceded the modern era, but it is unclear whether that contemporary warming trend has peaked and we are now entering the next cyclical cooling period. We probably will not be in a position to make that judgment for at least several more decades.


25 posted on 06/16/2005 1:51:01 PM PDT by tenuredprof
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To: TGOGary

Algore gave the same speech in Boston on the day that our total snowfall went over nine feet.


26 posted on 06/16/2005 1:58:41 PM PDT by massgopguy (massgopguy)
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To: tenuredprof

Thanks for the clarification.


27 posted on 06/16/2005 2:01:55 PM PDT by cubram
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To: anniegetyourgun
Global Warming May Play Role in Hurricane Intensity

Well thank goodness for that. I thought for a long time it was George Bush's fault.

28 posted on 06/16/2005 2:54:03 PM PDT by boothead
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To: cubram
Yep, I am a sun watcher from way back when, studied the solar wind when no one knew what it was. Currently the sunspot activity is not behaving according to the normal cycle. There were a couple of big sunspots just in the last few days. When the CMEs hit the earth, they heat the atmosphere and warm the Earth up -- A CME just hit on the 16th.

I do notice how the leftist-MSM doesn't bother noting these events at all. Don't want to confuse people.

space weather is the place, SOHO is the tool of choice.
29 posted on 06/16/2005 6:51:29 PM PDT by Tarpon
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