Posted on 06/26/2005 12:29:08 PM PDT by Halgr
(Snip)
China is building its military forces faster than U.S. intelligence and military analysts expected, prompting fears that Beijing will attack Taiwan in the next two years, according to Pentagon officials. U.S. defense and intelligence officials say all the signs point in one troubling direction: Beijing then will be forced to go to war with the United States, which has vowed to defend Taiwan against a Chinese attack. China's military buildup includes an array of new high-technology weapons, such as warships, submarines, missiles and a maneuverable warhead designed to defeat U.S. missile defenses. Recent intelligence reports also show that China has stepped up military exercises involving amphibious assaults, viewed as another sign that it is preparing for an attack on Taiwan. "There's a growing consensus that at some point in the mid-to-late '90s, there was a fundamental shift in the sophistication, breadth and re-sorting of Chinese defense planning," said Richard Lawless, a senior China-policy maker in the Pentagon. "And what we're seeing now is a manifestation of that change in the number of new systems that are being deployed, the sophistication of those systems and the interoperability of the systems." China's economy has been growing at a rate of at least 10 percent for each of the past 10 years, providing the country's military with the needed funds for modernization. The combination of a vibrant centralized economy, growing military and increasingly fervent nationalism has transformed China into what many defense officials view as a fascist state.
(Snip)
Energy supply a factor For China, Taiwan is not the only issue behind the buildup of military forces. Beijing also is facing a major energy shortage that, according to one Pentagon study, could lead it to use military force to seize territory with oil and gas resources.
(Snip)
(Excerpt) Read more at washtimes.com ...
chicom ping
"...could lead it to use military force to seize territory with oil and gas resources." Or just buy it up with all their Wal-Mart bucks!
They will attack, and we won't do a darn thing about it. Maybe some sactions, but that's about it.
I'm half expecting them to go into Siberia, a la Clancy's novel.
Why would they bother attacking? Just declare Taiwan a blight and use Eminent Domain to buy it. The US government will support it.
If they are building-up to acquire resources, then folks in eastern Russia and Southeast Asia should start getting nervous. The PRC wants the ROC for political/nationalist reasons. As for resources, the PRC has long had it eye on the rest of the continent of Asia and the western Pacific.
Secondly, I declined to post it because of its sheer length. While it does present what appears to be a thorough analysis of China's overtly expansionist intentions, I generally try to avoid posting excerpts from articles which then turn out to be interminable, once the reader clicks on the link.
I agree, though, that this is not a subject to be ignored. China poses a giant quandary for America on many levels.
Thanks for the ping!
Char :)
BTTT
"Just declare Taiwan a blight and use Eminent Domain to buy it."
If this weren't so sad but true, it would be funny. ;-(
Golitysn's predictions are coming to pass in spades:
Taken from Anatoly Golistyn’s book “Perestroika Deception”, 1995 (pp. 149-151)
Memorandum to the CIA: March 26, 1992
GEOPOLITICAL STRATEGIES OF RUSSIA, THE ‘COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES’ AND CHINA…
In an earlier Memorandum to the CIA this analyst explained the common Sino-Soviet strategy of convergence with the West and the intended exploitation for the purposes of this strategy of the new openings arising from the ‘reformed’ political structure of the former USSR and the emergence of the alleged ‘democrats’, ‘non-Communists’ and ‘independents’ who are running it.
The present assessment show how, because of Western ignorance of and confusion about the strategy underlying ‘perestroika’ and because of Western political and economic support for the so-called reform of the Soviet system, the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) has been successfully installed and has begun to carry out concrete new geopolitical strategies within the framework of the long-standing overall Communist strategy of convergence.
These strategies are still being guided and coordinated by the same Soviet strategists who have simply shifted away from the use of the old worn-out ideology and the familiar but obsolete patterns, to the exploitation of geopolitical factors and of the new potentialities of the ‘reformed’ Communist system. The common feature of these geopolitical strategies is the manipulation and use of the ‘democratic’ and ‘independent’ images which the change in form from the USSR to the CIS and its individual members has provided so abundantly and the nature of which the West has, so far, failed to comprehend.
The following upgraded strategies may be distinguished:
THE FIRST STRATEGY involves the CIS and Russia in particular dealing directly with longstanding American allies like Germany and Japan and causing their allegiance to be shifted away from the United States towards economic and political alliance with the CIS and especially with Russia.
To this end Russia is exploiting American economic rivalry with Germany and Japan, together with the large-scale involvement of Germany and Japan in economic cooperation with Russia and the offer to them of lucrative market and investment opportunities in Russia. China can be expected to join in this campaign to steal away old American allies by concentrating on offering the Japanese various investment opportunities in China.
A SECOND UPGRADED STRATEGY involves the use of the new ‘independent’ Muslim states in the CIS to establish and develop economic and political cooperation with the fundamentalists in Iran and elsewhere in the Muslim world.
According to this assessment the much-advertised feud between the Armenians and the Azerbaijanis of Turkish descent in Nagorno-Karabakh may be a tactical ploy to involve Turkey, Iran and other Muslim countries in support of eventual alliance with Azerbaijan and other Central Asian Muslim states in the CIS. This strategy takes into account the growing power of the fundamentalists and the possibility of their gaining control over substantial oil reserves.
A primary objective of the strategy here is to achieve a partnership with the fundamentalists in Iran and Algeria and to replace the present American-Oriented rulers of Saudi Arabia with fundamentalists. The opening in Saudi Arabia of a Russian Embassy and the probable opening of Embassies by Muslim states of the CIS (read: Russian puppet governments) should be seen, not only as an attempt to extract a few extra Saudi Billions, but as part of an offensive to bring about a political reorientation in that country.
Chinese Muslims can also be expected to play an active role in promoting alliances with the fundamentalists. The supply of missiles to Iran by the Chinese should be looked at in the context of this strategy.
THE THIRD STRATEGY is to facilitate a shift of the emerging regime in South Africa from the Western sphere of influence towards close economic and political cooperation and alliance with the CIS using for this purpose old friendships with the leaders of the African National Congress and the South African Communist Party with which it is effectively merged. One can expect that the offensive to facilitate such a partnership will become more active and more visible than ever, after the ‘reforms’ in the CIS and South Africa have stabilized.
THE FOURTH STRATEGY is that of using and manipulating the changes in the former Soviet Union to bring about, in the longer run, radical changes in relations between the United States and Israel, in the political power structure in Israel itself, in Israel’s position in the Middle East and in world opinion towards Israel.
The fact that the new leaders in Russia have promised the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Germany, the Baltic countries and Poland, and that they are insisting on a seven-year term for the strategic arms reduction treaty being negotiated with the United States, are indications that the Russian strategists have their own timetable. This is not based on what is going to occur in the CIS according to the optimistic expectations of Western observers, but rather upon the Soviet estimate of the time needed for the strategies described above to take effect. The possibility that the United States will lose valuable allies during this period is not something new. There is nothing permanent in international relations. The Americans experienced this not so long ago when they “suddenly” lost Iran.
The vulnerability of the United States arises from the fact that its basic premises, assumptions and perceptions about the present and future Russia and the CIS are wrong. Where the United States sees golden opportunities, it is in reality facing traps set for it by the Soviet long-range strategists. The impact on the United States of the successful execution of these strategies would be devastating.
The loss of old allies and the loss of oil reserves, following the equally catastrophic loss of South Africa, would result in the re-emergence of the CIS and China as stronger adversaries, and in an ‘irreversible’ change in the balance of world power in their favor. The United States would be weakened and divided and the pressure for the impetus towards convergence of the CIS and China with the United States on Sino-Russian terms would be intensified.
See post #15
Welllllllllll, Doh!
Nice some people are waking up. I would that it were the ones who counted, however.
Sadly, the puppet masters have evidently decided that the USA's power must be removed in order for the world government to have unrivaled power.
Well, you know it would be the height of irony (and damn funny too) if Taiwan were to pony up enough cash to buy some of Kim Jong Il's nuclear warheads, mount them on some No-Dong missiles (also one of Kim's exports), and then inform Beijing "you wanna invade? go ahead - make our nuclear day!"
==The 2008 Olympics are scheduled to be in China. There is no way the commies are going to do anything to upset the Olympics games going to Beijing in 08.
It seems they are already well on their way to upsetting the 08 Olympics:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1431099/posts
Something even more important to the commies is the US election. If hillary wins they won't have any opposition. If mcbain wins he will lead the charge againest taiwan.
Agreed. It sounds like Gertz, as he often does, rounds up a bunch of worst case Pentagon scenarios and writes them up as if they represent the latest Pentagon position.
All that does is leave a whole lot of room for a bunch of weenies to wiggle out of everything. Sure it has some strong words but it doesn't say anything about gaurranteeing the use military force. It is typical political mumbo-jumbo. Nothing will be done, and especially if a rat wins the Presidency. Read it again and I think you will agree with me.
Maybe an asteroid will hit Beijing.
I hafta wonder if George B will demand that the sea lanes stay open from China to Wal-Mart...
==Agreed. It sounds like Gertz, as he often does, rounds up a bunch of worst case Pentagon scenarios and writes them up as if they represent the latest Pentagon position.
C'mon boys...Red China is very open about the fact that they consider the US the MAIN ENEMY. I am very thankful that Gertz and others are informing us what Red China is doing to carry out their stated intentions.
One small difference...China's likely to shoot back...
ping
After they purchase Unocal, if we try to send a carrier group into the China Sea as a show of force, they'll just shut off the oil. I cannot believe that anything good will come out of the chinese military having access to energy production facilities on the North American continent.
I'm half expecting them to go into Siberia, a la Clancy's novel.
No, China & Russia are allies. They signed a Military defense treaty in the early summer of 2001. The United States is in serious peril. You have the internal enemies, traitors in this country (MSM, Democrats, RINOS) trying to divide the country over Iraq & other issues. Also, the latest Supreme Court decision regarding the expansion of Eminent Domain makes all Private land available for public use, think COLLECTIVIZATION. Externally, are enemies are encircling us. Russia, with its technology has formed an alliance with China, Brazil, Venezuela & Islam vast human resources. Russia also has a military alliance with Iran.
Who was President of the United States in the mid-90s...oh yeah...Slick Willie...thanks a lot, Bubba...
The primary killer of ChiCom subs will be our subs. The ChiCom's aren't even in the same league. They actually don't have much in terms of quantity.
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/china/navy.htm
"The actual number of operable Romeo-class units is difficult to assess, since none of these submarines spends more than a few days at sea each year, and because of the general shortage of trained crews. Construction of their replacements -- the "Ming-class" (which is actually a remodeled R-model) and Song-class submarines -- is proceeding at the rate of about one a year. "
Well, he's turning into Joseph Farah.
Also, he's giving his audience (much of which you see on FR) what they want.
The LAST thing his audience wants is an objective analysis of the PRC military.
bflr
I think it would be best if everybody in Taiwan just relocated. Let China have the real estate, after it's gutted like John Galt's closet. Cheaper for the whole world, than a US-China war.
Eventuality IMO.....they have been watching us waste time and money over oil issues and they figure it's just one more tool in their kit bag.
How strong are the Taiwanese forces to repel a Chinese assault? Do they have a decent air force? Is there a militia of Taiwanese people who could defend the beaches and fight on the land?
In fact this past Spring, China & Iran signed a HUGE OIL DEAL. I bet you China ASSURED Iran as part of the oil deal that if President Bush tries to take out their Nuke capacity, along with Russia they will come to the Mullahs aid. Iran feels like their ten feet tall for two main reasons: 1. US internal enemies (MSM,Liberals, DEMS, RINOS) 2. Their Axis partners which include Russia and China makes them almost immune to massive US attack.
We must not forget this. I say we strap Ms. Lewinski's boyfriend to the first bomb we'll have to drop to correct his extraordinary malfeasance.
A primary objective of the strategy here is to achieve a partnership with the fundamentalists in Iran and Algeria and to replace the present American-Oriented rulers of Saudi Arabia with fundamentalists. The opening in Saudi Arabia of a Russian Embassy and the probable opening of Embassies by Muslim states of the CIS (read: Russian puppet governments) should be seen, not only as an attempt to extract a few extra Saudi Billions, but as part of an offensive to bring about a political reorientation in that country.
That SOB will go down in history of one of the WORST presidents of all time.
In fact, as this situation mounts, the more we connect BILL Clinton with it...the less chance HILLARY has of becoming POTUS.
I would like to ask the free-traders on this forum: How can a country, theoretically, have any military leverage over a second country that is beginning to control the first country's industry?
"If the Chinese attack Taiwan during a democratic presidency, look for this country to go crying to the U.N. like a child running to its Momma after getting stung by a bee."
And expect Bush to sell out Taiwan to Communism in fear of losing support of the corporations that have plants in China.
Question: (Anyone here with some "expertise" on military strategy as well as our current capacity to wage war with China, please opine along with all others of course).
Realistically, what are we looking at in terms of confrontation with China over an invasion of Taiwan? What will be the scope of such a conflict? Will most of the fighting be limited to a small area in the Pacific? Would it expand to their mainland or ours? Does China have or will they have the nuclear capacity to deliver a crushing blow to the U.S. mainland? Should we expect Russia to declare war on us should we attack China?
I am mainly curious as to whether or not this will be a large scale "global" war or is China a paper tiger as of now?
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