Virginia Governor Poll (SurveyUSA): Kilgore (R) - 49%; Kaine (D) 39%

Survey USA ^ | 6/30/05

[LdSentinal]

Analysis: In an election for Governor of Virginia held today, 6/30/05, 19 weeks to the vote, Republican Jerry Kilgore defeats Democrat Tim Kaine 49% to 39%, according to a SurveyUSA poll of 494 likely Virginia voters, conducted exclusively for WSLS-TV in Roanoke. Independent Russ Potts gets 5%. Election day is November 8th. Incumbent Democrat Mark Warner is term limited; the Governor’s seat is open. Kilgore gets 89% of the Republican vote. Kaine gets 81% of the Democrat vote. Kilgore leads by 15 points among men and by 5 points among women. Kilgore leads 2:1 among voters under age 35, but the race is close among voters age 50+. Kaine support strongest among most educated voters, pro-choice voters.

Filtering: 1,200 Virginia adults were interviewed 6/28/05 - 6/29/05. Of them, 1,009 were registered voters. Of them, 494 were judged to be "likely" voters. Crosstabs reflect "likely" voters.

[JohnBDay]

Isn't the trend in Virginia that the early polls favor the Democrats? If it is, Kilgore going to cruise to victory.

[GiveEmDubya]

I've heard that George Allen trailed in the polls by over 20% but won comfortably on election day. I've long felt that this will be a Republican gain.

[KoRn]

This is going to be an easy win for Kilgore unless something major happens. Kaine is just too liberal and he has a record to prove it.

This is like Howard Dean running for Governor in VA, and it's shaping up to be just that. Kaine in VA finds himself in the same position John sKerry did in the last election. He can try his best to say what it takes to get elected, but his entire past will come back to bite him at every turn on every issue.

[Ligeia]

Hey, this is good news. Should we ping the list?

[snoocher]

Wouldn't get too excited about this, only because Survey USA and Rasmussen don't do a very good job of polling statewide races. They don't draw very representative samples and their results are skewed. This race is closer than 10 points.

[Ligeia]

Here's what the Kilgore campaign's email has to say regarding the poll:

< snip>

Kilgore pulls further ahead in exclusive WSLS poll
Jay Warren
WSLS NewsChannel 10
Thursday, June 30, 2005

An exclusive, WSLS poll, conducted by SurveyUSA, shows Republican Jerry Kilgore nudging close to the 50% mark. He's now leading Democratic Lt. Gov. Tim Kaine 49% to 39%.

Click here for survey details.

That stands in marked contrast to the too-close-to call race one month ago. That poll showed Kilgore leading by just four points, 44% to 40%.

And here's part of the reason: the May poll was of registered voters which is a wider pool. With the current poll we fine tuned the sample, only considering likely voters. That group tends to be more Republican because Republican voters are generally more motivated and more reliable. At this stage in the race, that difference is likely playing to Kilgore's advantage.

Let's break down the rest of the poll. Kilgore leads in many categories including all age groups and both genders. He leads in all parts of the state except Northern Virginia. In Southwest Virginia, Kilgore extended his lead to 55% to 34%. Kilgore also leads in the cities, the suburbs, and the rural areas.

Kaine scores well with black and Hispanic voters. He also does well with Virginians who favor abortion, who are more liberal, who don't attend church, and who have graduate degrees.

Finally we should point out that Republican State Senator Russ Potts, who's running as an independent for governor, pulled in 5% in the poll. That mark leaves Potts shy of most standards used to include him in any of the gubernatorial debates. The Commission on Presidential Debates usually requires independent candidates to reach 15% in the polls to be included in presidential debates. That's a standard many state organizations use as well.

Jerry Kilgore for Virginia's Governor

[Corin Stormhands]

Kilgore pingage.

This is good news. The numbers are moving in our favor and they continue to show that Potts is pulling from Kaine, not Kilgore.

[GeorgeW23225]

I've said it before, and I'll say it again. This election will NOT be close. Kilgore, Bolling and MacDonald will all be elected by comfortable margins. I don't think that the 10% figure will hold up, but I'm counting on an 8% victory across the board.

[R. Scott]

It’s hard to believe that the election is still almost 5 months away. With the number of TV ads running a person would think it was next week.

[Corin Stormhands]

With the number of TV ads running a person would think it was next week.

With poll numbers like this, I wish it was next week.

[R. Scott]

Same here.

[Ligeia]

Let's post ways to help the ticket this weekend. I'll start w/ Jim Parmelee's list:

Celebrating Our Independence!

34th ANNUAL CONSERVATIVE SOIRÉE - JULY 4TH w/SENATOR GEORGE ALLEN - There is a long slate of great events over the Independence Day weekend (please see the events calendar below) including The Leadership Institute's Conservative Soirée, a patriotic celebration of all things conservative from 12-5 PM on July 4th at Bull Run Regional Park in Centreville, VA, near exit 52 on I-66 West. This year, the special guest speaker is Senator George Allen! The event is FREE. Free BBQ and drinks, band, entertainment for the kids and even some free conservative books will be given away. NO RSVP needed, but please bring a covered side dish or dessert to share. The local Park Authority charges a $7 per car (under 10 passengers) daily rate, but the parking is free IF you live in one of their "member jurisdictions" including Alexandria, Arlington, Fairfax City, Fairfax County, Falls Church or Loudoun. There will also be a FREE shuttle service available from Clarendon. For more information, please go to www.leadershipinstitute.org/soiree and/or call The Leadership Institute at (703) 247-2000.


GOP CALENDAR (for more events go to www.NorthernVirginiaGOP.com)

7/3 - Lovettsville Independence Day Parade and Festival - 5:15 PM, volunteers needed to hand out literature. Call: (703) 277-9635.

7/3-7/4 - Pride of Purcellville Festival - Volunteers needed to hand out literature. Call: (703) 277-9635.

7/4 - Fairfax City Independence Day Parade - 10 AM, meet at 7-8 AM to march with Jerry Kilgore and the GOP floats! Call: (703) 277-9635.

7/4 - Dale City Independence Day Parade - 10 AM, Dale Blvd. Meet at 9 AM to march with Jerry Kilgore, Delegate Jeff Frederick and the GOP floats! Call: (703) 277-9635 or (703) 929-0623.

7/4 - Lorton Independence Day Parade - 11 AM, Lorton Virginia Railway Express Station. Volunteers needed. Call: (703) 277-9635.

7/4 - Vienna Independence Day Festival - Noon-5 PM, volunteer at the GOP booth! (703) 766-4GOP or (703) 277-9635.

7/4 - Leesburg Independence Day Parade - Noon, volunteers needed to march with the GOP float! Call: (703) 629-6634.

7/4 - The Leadership Institute's Conservative Soirée w/Senator George Allen - Noon-5 PM, Bull Run Park, Centreville - FREE. Please see article above and/or www.leadershipinstitute.org/soiree for more details. Call: (703) 247-2000.

7/4 - Evening Fireworks - The Kilgore campaign as well as many local campaigns are looking for volunteers to hand out literature, etc. The locations include: Fairfax High School, Lee District Park in Fairfax County, George Mason High School in Falls Church, Ida Lee Park in Leesburg, Old Stone School in Hillsboro and Old Town Manassas. Call: (703) 277-9635.

[Ravi]

They did a good job in 2004 in posting races for individual states, especially Rasmussen. Survey USA likewise did well. I'm not sure where you're getting your information.

[Coop]

Isn't the trend in Virginia that the early polls favor the Democrats?

No, I wouldn't say that. Allen led Chuck Robb comfortably early on, but Robb closed to within a couple of points by election time (ultimately losing by about five points, IIRC).

[Coop]

They did a good job in 2004 in posting races for individual states, especially Rasmussen. Survey USA likewise did well. I'm not sure where you're getting your information.

I do. And I have a feeling it's accompanied by a rather unpleasant odor.