Posted on 07/11/2005 7:27:02 AM PDT by jpsb
BEIJING (Reuters) - China's trade surplus for June swelled five-fold from a year earlier as exports grew much faster than imports, offering more ammunition for foreign critics who argue that Beijing should let the yuan rise in value.
The June surplus grew to $9.68 billion, exceeding forecasts of $8.0 billion and towering above the $1.8 billion surplus recorded for June 2004.
So far I have been accused of being a communist chinese plant to influence Free Republic for taking the free trade position. (So far)
Now Free Trade advocates are being lumped with the Islamofacists?
I'm building quite the resume!
I don't see a problem, inflation can be triggered by a number of factors, including that example.
Great isn't it?
BTW, for me, it's not a free trade issue, it's a freeDOM issue.
These folks refer to countries, and yes even continents as if they were individuals.
"What should we do?" and "Us against them".
It's not two people agreeing on a mutually beneficial transaction where both get what the want, it's a small group of elitist "we know whats good for you" that make the decisions.
Another point. Some of these people no doubt would describe themselves as Christians. I always wonder how they reconcile their Christianity with their advocation of forced policies which say that people in some countries are entitled to live at a certain level while those in another country are lesser and don't deserve a chance to make a living. WWJD?
You draw a line in the dirt with your foot, and anyone on the wrong side of it can eat the dirt while the others trade among themselves as long as they are in collusion that no one will compete on the price of their labor too vigorously.
Which confirms the fundamental misunderstanding.
inflation can be triggered by a number of factors, including that example.
Incorrect. Inflation is not rising prices. Or upward price pressure.
Rising prices and upward pressure are symptoms of inflation, not causes.
"Inflation is everywhere and always a monetary phenomenon".....Milton Friedman
The example states that higher production (labor) costs could trigger inflation, because of a likely demand for higher wages.
No Logo
In case you do not know what a free market looks like. Here is an example - the free currency market of free people in the US and Canada;
Trying to compete against China is like playing against a stacked deck. Maybe you would have a better understanding how American firms feel as they are told they must produce for the "Chinese" price.
The example is incorrect.
Inflation is a monetary phenomenon.
In other words, the inflationary aspects of a product or service must be based on a unit cost, not an overall cost. In the context of the examples you cite in medical care, the only way to accuretely assess inflationary trends is to look at the specific costs associated with those treatments and not the overall cost of insuring people. How much does a hip replacement cost today vs. in 1970? How about treatments for high blood pressure, or diabetes? If we're using these things more frequently today than in 1970, then we should expect to see health care expenditures rise.
Quote: I hate the America that we have become. A nation of whiners, quitters, nanny state advocates, sky is falling chicken littles running to those in authority "they hit me, make them stop, it's not fair!"
O.k. I'll proudly wear the label chicken little label if it means I'm in a group that is very concerned about twin deficits spiraling out of control, borders that leak like a sieve and losing our manufacturing base that made this country so great...Concerned that we are going to have a large segment of the population one day comprised of grass cutters, travel agents, mortgage brokers Lowes/Home Depot aisle clerks and car detailers .
Rather be this way than an "Ostrich Optomist" any day that as long as things are going good for them they don't give a care to any of their fellow citizens.
That's exactly why China can't go to war with the U.S. anytime soon. You can't "call in all the U.S. dollars you hold" if your assets are nothing more than Treasury bills that will become worthless the moment the country in question decides it wants to default on them. If China were to go to war with the U.S., it would be the equivalent of a bank lending you $500,000 for a new home with no insurance coverage -- and then hiring an arsonist to burn it to the ground.
Really? You have any stats that back up your theory? Or you making stuff up again?
Well, maybe it's just me, but I never even got on an airplane until I was well into my 20s -- and that was pretty much the routine where I lived. We simply didn't travel that way when I was a kid.
JPSB is correct. However I do want to add pharmecuticals to the list that cuased our exports to go slightly higher.
I will post the chart later tonight that shows for the most part all our exports were down last year except for Food, Pharmecuticals ad transporation like airplanes.
Just about everything else on the export list like electronics, computers, machine tools etc has been going down every year.
Oh, well if you say so, it must be true. LOL!
Why don't you prove it with a link? Or would that show you were both wrong? Take your time. Thanks.
Did I not say I wil post it tonight? Some of us have to work.
Putting up huge trade barriers and starting a trade war in order to cover up the fundamental reasons for this countries inability to compete?
Bashing consumers for buying the goods they want at a price they want to pay as if they were different people than those who are supposedly losing jobs that they desire?
Bashing people in other countries for the crime of trying to earn a living?
Pretending that poorer countries can ever buy more from richer countries than they sell to them?
Pretending that this country couldn't ramp up production of any damn thing we want to produce, from pajamas to steel if the need or the desire arose?
Pretending that we have vast numbers of unemployed when the current unemployment rates are within a percent of practical full employment?
Pretending that the other biggest bugaboo on FR, illegal immigrants, are coming here in huge numbers because there are no jobs here?
Any of those points?
Or do you want to talk about currency valuations? Because this thread isn't about currency valuations, it's about laying blame. It's about pretending to be a good American by doing precisely what liberals do, feel-goodism, while calling others traitors for not buying into all that BS.
You haven't done most of those things and I sense you are way too intelligent to do so, but respectfully, you have missed the point of this thread IMO.
LOL. Sorry. I usually read your posts until you say something silly. Then I stop.
This thread is titled China June trade surplus swells five-fold, is it not? Set currency valuation is one of main tools the Chinese use to restrict their markets and provide predatory pricing in the American market. You can either answer to this or be dismissed as a flak for them.
So you think I'm a flak for Communist China? Is that the question?
Because if it is, I'll be happy to give you an email address where we can exchange pleasantries off site.
According to BCBS their are other reasons for high costs...
Why should we be concerned with people who don't have health insurance? When you don't have health insurance, you can delay getting medical care until you can afford it. The delay in medical care increases the risk of complications and the advancement of health problems. Therefore, when a person without health insurance finally seeks medical care, the costs are normally greater. The uninsured person has no health insurance to pay for the medical care nor can the uninsured person afford to pay for the medical care. As a result, cost shifting occurs. Cost shifting means that the facility or professional shift the cost of the care or transfer it to other patients with health insurance or to those patients who can afford to pay for medical care. Cost shifting increases the cost of all medical care, including the care you and your family need. For example, a hospital increases costs to cover the unpaid costs for the uninsured. When the cost of medical care increases, this impacts how much we pay under your Service Benefit Plan coverage. Because the Service Benefit Plan is an experienced rated plan (your premiums are based on the amount of care used by all members), when we pay more in benefits, you pay more in premiums. In fact, everyone with health insurance ends up paying more.
So as less people and employers pay insurance premiums, those who do pay will pay more.
B'zzzt. Wrong. They do nothing of the kind. Never said it wasn't monetary in origin. They discuss the RECIPROCAL REACTION of the economic units...the populace to inflation...and the interactions on the respective micro and macro levels...including political. The wage-price spiral is the RESULT of the inflation, not the cause as you mistakenly ASSUMED I was saying.
T'sk, t'sk, t'sk.
It has a political dynamic, however, which make things worse.
On the level of rational expectations you see both empoyers and employees taking actions with their respective levers of influence. With the employhers having the most political contributions, giving the biggest squeaky wheel effect...demanding more money to be loaned inexpensively to cover these unanticipated business costs...and also btw, complaining to their politician buddies about these greedy workers, who are not accepting inflation quietly and meekly...but demanding COLAs (Cost of Living Adjustments). Hence pushing for, in effect, MORE MONEY to be flooded into the system to try and keep everything ahead of the inflation-induced worker demands. Creating an artificial acceleration.
Just using BLS numbers, Check this out:
Not necessarily....
Cost-push inflation: Inflation of the economy's average price level induced by decreases in aggregate supply that result from increases in production cost. This type of inflation occurs when the cost of using any of the four factors of production (labor, capital, land, or entrepreneurship) increases. In general, higher production cost means the economy simply can't continue to supply the same production at the same price level. If buyers want the production, they must pay higher prices. The higher cost "pushes" the price level higher.
Build a quality product, the buyers will buy from you.
Why are you trying to change the question by the way?
Tell your representative to represent you and stop spoending money like a drunken fool.
This discussion isn't about quality. As I recall, it is about trade barriers.
As an aside buyers will buy complete crap if the price is cheap enough. Go to one of the parking lot tool sales sometime.
I'm not changing anything. Withdraw your slander or we have nothing to talk about.
Why should I? You never had any pretense about answering my points nor could you even try to do so as they fell outside of the strawman arguments you listed in #317.
I've been to one. It was a waste of my time.
There would be many people happy to buy American if they were aware. Start a branding policy sponsored by private business. A big American flag "MADE IN AMERICA" on every product. I will pay more to support American made products, so would many Americans.
I just don't want a government gun to my head with the demand that I only buy American.
Start a brand awareness program and put them on the bulletin boards at Walmart. Haier America is a brand that I've recently become aware that is a Chinese owned company. Never heard of them until a week ago.
Start in your church, convince them to support retailers that are committed to stocking American products. Talk to people at work, convince them! Don't use the force of government. It reminds me of Liberal tactics.
Not in China they won't, if its made only in the U.S. they will demand production in China, and co-ventures...for "access" to their wonderful "market."
And in some areas they may soon be leading us in technology, and not even need to steal it or coerce it, did you see this?
Lack Of Manufacturing Base Imperils U.S. Lead In Nanotechnology
Manufacturing News, July 11th, 2005
BY KEN JACOBSON,
Nanotechnology, often touted as a key to maintaining the United States' global lead in industrial productivity, is far from a sure thing for the U.S., according to the warnings of experts who last week offered lawmakers varying assessments of the likelihood that the country will be able to capture nano's economic benefits and varying prescriptions for doing so.
"The manufacturing train has already left the station" in some fields of nanomaterials, Matthew Nordan of New York-based Lux Research Inc. told the House Science Subcommittee on Research at a June 29 hearing titled "Nanotechnology: Where Does the U.S. Stand?"
Any revitalization of the U.S. manufacturing base through nanotechnology could end up limited to "pilot-scale manufacturing and manufacturing where specific skills are required," he testified, characterizing these activities as "generally low volume." When it comes to the production of more basic nanoproducts, he stated, "the U.S.'s economic opportunity is in coming up with the ideas that may be implemented in manufacturing plants on other shores."
Nordan's fellow witnesses -- venture capitalist Floyd Kvamme, who co-chairs the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST), and Sean Murdock, executive director of the nanotechnology policy and commercialization advocacy group NanoBusiness Alliance -- appeared less "prepared to cede the manufacturing of nanotechnology-enabled products here in the United States," as Murdock put it.
But the three did agree in their fundamental assessment of the present: All view the United States as the world leader in nanotechnology up to now, and all regard its lead as imperiled.
Kvamme, citing an estimate contained in the review of the National Nanotechnology Initiative (NNI) published by PCAST in May, testified that the $1 billion in federal funding for nano R&D in Fiscal Year 2005 "is roughly one-quarter of the current global investment by all nations."
He placed the U.S.'s overall annual nano R&D effort at $3 billion, "one-third of the approximately $9 billion in total worldwide spending by the public and private sectors." Additionally, the U.S. "leads in the number of start-up companies based on nanotechnology and in research output as measured by patents and publications."
Still, Kvamme said, the U.S. is coming under "increased competitive pressure," as "other countries are aggressively chasing [its] leadership position," both by beefing up coordinated national programs and by focusing investments on "areas of existing national economic strength." The U.S. lead in patents and publications, he added, "appears to be slipping."
According to Nordan, whose company's figures were cited repeatedly by PCAST it its report, even the U.S.'s current R&D spending lead is open to question. On the basis of purchasing-power parity, 2004 government spending on nano R&D in the U.S., at $5.42 per capita, came in below South Korea's $5.62, Japan's $6.30, and Taiwan's $9.40.
"The $130 million in estimated government spending on nanotech last year in China equaled $611 million at purchasing-power parity, or 38 percent of U.S. expenditure," Nordan noted. That nations like China are free to direct "initial capital investments toward the instrumentation needed for nanotechnology research, without having to maintain technology infrastructures and skill sets that were cutting-edge 20 years ago" could add to the comparative bang they're getting for their bucks.
A figure cited in Murdock's testimony seems to corroborate this assumption. In the period January to August 2004, China led the world in research papers on nanotechnology, presenting 14 percent more than the U.S. And while the U.S., according to the NanoBusiness Alliance's database, accounted for 613 of 1,175 companies worldwide that are "involved with nanotechnology," Murdock said that "if one is to believe the announcements made at the ChinaNano2005 trade expo," China now has almost 800 such companies.
Keeping the edge in R&D is critical to Nordan because he believes that, for the U.S., the economic advantage to be derived from nanotechnology begins and ends with intellectual property (IP).
He pointed to Japan's Frontier Carbon, whose 40-ton-per-year capacity for the manufacture of fullerenes, based on a process licensed from an MIT spinoff company, surpasses last year's total world demand by more than 25 times. "It's unlikely," he told the subcommittee, "that you're going to find U.S.-based companies investing that far ahead of demand in order to attain manufacturing dominance" in basic nanomaterials.
The U.S. cannot maintain an edge, he argued, by offering "low labor costs or tax advantages for capital investment in manufacturing facilities" in an attempt to "go toe-to-toe against...countries that have more runway to go down in terms of economic development based on nanotechnology." Nor, he said, can it prevent the transfer overseas of research, whether "through a patent process [or] to a country that perhaps does not have the respect for intellectual property rights that Western European and U.S. nations hold."
Instead, the U.S. should seek "to have an unremitting, relentless flow of novel ideas that take time and keep us continually two, three, five years ahead of what other countries can attain," Nordan maintained. "The achievement that we can drive toward is to always be ahead and always be first to market with those novel ideas, and through that I think we'll attain economic rewards."
Murdock, while concurring on the importance of enforcing IP laws, countered that keeping manufacturing in the U.S. is critical to the nation's economic health. "I believe that we need to endeavor to be more than just IP companies," he stated, in view of a projection by Nordan's firm that "new, emerging nanotechnology applications will...becom[e] incorporated into 15 percent of global manufacturing output totaling $2.6 trillion in 2014."
"If you look at the total value associated with any product, most of the value tends to accrue to those that are closest to the customer -- that, in fact, make it. And while IP may have higher margins, ultimately there is a big value pool out there, and we need to ensure that we're taking steps to capture the value.
"Furthermore, IP is not the only source of intellectual capital," Murdock added. "There is know-how. And that is the reason for the importance of manufacturing. Ultimately, when we move from the knowledge or the proof of principle into making the stuff, we develop process knowledge. That process knowledge helps us to refine and improve both the quality of the product and the throughput, and it increases the marginal productivity of the labor. That is what enables us to pay high wages and keep jobs here.
"So while we need to be realistic and understand that this is a global economy, we also need to take steps to do what we can to ensure that we do commercialize and manufacture the set of technologies that we can here."
While Murdock and Nordan did not see eye-to-eye on the ultimate viability of nanomanufacturing in the U.S., they did agree that insufficient venture capital has been made available to nanotech startups [see story above]. Both praised the role in addressing this funding gap of the Small Business Innovation Research program and of the Commerce Department's embattled Advanced Technology Program. The latter, according to Murdock, "provides one of the only sources of capital (and thus incentives) for new nanotech innovation systems to form."
Kvamme, meanwhile, offered a straightforward prescription for keeping the manufacturing of nanotechnology products in the United States: Slash corporate tax rates.
"The reason that you put a semiconductor plant today in China has nothing to do with labor rates," he asserted. "It has to do with return on capital employed." Using a semiconductor fab as an illustration, he said that 93 percent of the cost is related to capital, adding: "You just do not put those high-value plants overseas for 4 percent of your cost structure."
Positing a 10-year deal in which the Chinese government granted "zero tax for the first five years and half tax for the next five," Kvamme said a plant requiring a $3 billion investment in the U.S. would come out $1.3 billion cheaper in China. "Unfortunately, the manufacturing plants" that incorporate nanotechnology "are going to be expensive," he observed.
"So who's going to give you the best opportunity for return on your capital? If you get hit with 35 percent off the top here, and 4 percent someplace else, it makes a dramatic difference."
The allure of such a differential could be limited, depending on the proposed location, by concern about protecting intellectual property, Kvamme allowed. Still, he expressed his hope that, in the round of tax simplification promised by President Bush, the Congress would "look at our global competitiveness at the corporate-tax level because, frankly, we're not very competitive right now."
Written testimony from the June 29 hearing of the House Committee on Science's Research Subcommittee is online at http:// www.house.gov/ science/hearings/research05/june29/index.htm. The PCAST report, "The National Nanotechnology Initiative at Five Years: Assessment and Recommendations of the National Nanotechnology Advisory Panel," is available at http:// www.nano.gov/ FINAL_PCAST_NANO_REPORT .pdf.
Stop taxing our businesses and corporations. Tax consumption.
Actually, there is a gun to your head right now demanding that you buy only foreign products. The gun? U.S. Taxes exclusively on U.S. production: Income tax, corporate and personal, capital gain, Unemployment and Workers Comp, and imposed regulatory requirements from OSHA,and EPA, etc. And then beyond the stick, there is also the carrot to offshore...ExIm Bank loans, OPIC insurance subsidies, IMF, etc.
No U.S. taxes on foreign imports to speak of, and virtually no regulation.
And then speaking of Governments, there is the Chinese GOVERNMENT, which does everything it can to peg its wages, not just currency...to world-beating prices to expropriate the global production capital. And should we talk about what rights these serfs have to contractual freedom, or property rights, or any other rights or freedoms? They have the "right" to work. Thanks, Bejing! And they busy themselves disregarding and STEALING our intellectual property, and have what, 70,000 spies here? Thanks, again, Bejing!!
So you were saying about guns to the head? H'mmmmmmmmmmmmm?
That is a good idea that I don't think we'll ever see.
Precisely. BTW, Imports ARE consumption.
I have long advocated ending the aforementioned taxes, imposing a 15% national sales tax on everything, and a 25% "revenue tax" on imports. And for China, special treatment, since they are self-admittedly at war against us.
Your asking our leaders to choose wisdom over the lobby. If corporate leaders were for such a plan it would be getting much more attention than it does.
Bloodsuckers, leeches and corporate welfare. All due to our representatives overstepping what is constitutionally authorized.
Be done with them. FREE OUR BUSINESSES
I could actually support this if EVERY OTHER TAX is repealed, that is until until all issues due to exchange rates, prison labor, intellectual property rights are addressed.
I would not support this if it was only used because they are paid less than the US workers. I'll think on this some more.
Quote: Tell your representative to represent you and stop spoending money like a drunken fool.
...I voted for Bush twice and got a liberal president(other than WOT) who is one of the biggets spenders in history.
The congress controls spending in theory at least.
Quote: The congress controls spending in theory at least.
Bush's veto pen must be out of ink.
OK -- so what happens (hypothetically) when health insurance as a concept doesn't even exist anymore?
Realism you are right about the unisured causing the health insurance prices to go up. As the insurance cost keep going up in double digit increases each year the young /healthy people drop off. It is a catch 22 situation that keeps getting worse each year. In insurance the situation is called "Adverse selection". I have a group I called on several weeks ago. When I wrote the group 10 years ago they had 21 out of 24 employees covered with 14 of those families. Now they have 16 employees covered with 4 families. The only people left on the insurance are the old/sick and people with assets they are afraid to lose.
I see it all the time. You have a car dealership for instance and the single employee rate is $275 per month. The dealership pays 70% of that. You have the young lot boys or detail guys making $6.00 per hour and they say forget it-they cannot afford the 30% taken out of their pay.
Quote; OK -- so what happens (hypothetically) when health insurance as a concept doesn't even exist anymore?
I don't think the country is ready for national health care. I do think states will implement programs that will mirror universal coverage. Some of the plans I have seen are set up like workers comp programs. The employer will pay an amount and so will the employees. Last I read 31 states are working on thse types of programs.
I imagine the difference in cost between this type of policy and your typical group plan could be huge (but you'd know this better than anyone!).
it is a lot more than just Walmart.
Some people just hate economic freedom
would you like a trade surplus, say like Japan with its 0% GDP growth. OR like Germany with its 12% unemployment.
The last time the US had a current account surplus was 1991, when unemployment was 8%, GDP growth was 1% and Al Gore was calling it the worst economy in 50 years. the uS has had consistently a trade deficit since about 1971 and did so for the first 100 or so years of its existance.
I'll explain this becasue no one here really understands it. The US has a trade deficit for two reasons:
1. Our GDP growth is much fast than our developed partners GDP growth
2. The US Invests more than it Saves, so it must import capital.
Notice none of the reason were free trade or unfair trade practices.
If you dont like the trade deficit, I suggest stop buying not only foreign goods but US Made ones as well (US goods consumed here are goods that cannot be exported, so yes when you consume US goods, you are increasing the trade deficit). You should buy US and Foreign Govt BONDS. This will drive the trade deficit towards balance faster than any silly mercantilist trade policies.
""'Japanese and Korean cars that we drive around in today."
Speak for yourself, I drive a Ford mustang and Chevy pickup""
and do you know hte US content of those vehicles?
our standard of living has risen greatly since the 1970s becasue of technology.
and as for those manufacturing jobs, well we've been losing them since 1978, that was the peak year. And guess what the entire world is losing manufacturing jobs, not just the US but Canada, UK, Germany, France, Japan and yes even China.
Manufacturing productive growth is something like 5-7% per year, but demand for manufactured goods rise at only 3-4% per year, so naturally jobs must disappear.
Manufacturing is what farming was in the early 20th century. Farming output has risen even has employment has fallen someething like 90%. Same thing will happen in manufacturing and is happening. It cannot be reversed without a steep reduction in the worlds living standards.
There were Luddites back in the early 1900s, William Jennings Bryan was one, who insisted, much like some here, that if jobs were lost in farming, America would be lost forever.
Actually, for what it is worth, Japan's economy has been growing recently. From Forbes, June 12th, about the recent revision to the GDP growth numbers for Japan from January-March:
Overall GDP growth in January-March was revised down to a real, annualized rate of 4.9 pct, from the 5.3 pct increase in the preliminary estimate released May 17.Even the revised data shows the world's second-largest economy grew about twice the rate initially expected, and at its fastest pace in a year, due to expanding domestic demand and corporate capital spending.
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