Oregon Ping
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Posted on 07/18/2005 6:18:42 PM PDT by DuckFan4ever
Statewide Jobless Rate Unchanged
SALEM, Ore. -- New construction jobs hit an all-time high in Oregon last month, even as the statewide unemployment rate remained essentially unchanged.
The jobless rate held steady in June at 6.5 percent.
But low interest rates pushed the number of construction jobs to nearly 90,000. State economist David Cooke says it's an "all-time record for Oregon." This past June, Oregon added 3,200 new construction jobs.
While the overall unemployment rate remained unchanged, the 6.5 percent is a big improvement over one year ago, when the statewide rate was a point higher at 7.5 percent.
The manufacturing sector added 4,600 jobs, bringing the total manufacturing jobs to 205,800.
Yeah, you are right. But at least it has some people to work. In rural Oregon some counties have a really high unemployment rate. Maybe other sectors will come back and we can have a thriving Oregon economy soon.
As compared with places like Alabama, Florida, or even, for crying out loud - New England! - the Left Coast has very high unemployment. Employers can't get out of here fast enough. Interestingly, all you have to do is cross the state line into Nevada and it's below 5% in nearly every county there.
From the Marxist occupied Left Coast - GOP_1900AD, signing off ... LOL !
Oregon Ping
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I'm in the cabinet biz here so I watch construction news very close. I noted my competitors are hiring at $9.00 P/H, which would be less that half of California but: At least their hiring and who would want to be in California?
One local television channel and the Oregonian fish wrapper may be cherry picking 'positive' stories to make a case supporting the Governor. They always support the Guv, regardless if he is a total idiot.
One channel hosted a 'Special' three weeks ago telling people that the needed to sign up to get on lists to buy houses. They were actually taking questions from members of the audience for local real estate brokers. The answer was always the same: Get on a list with a broker, buy now, real estate is hot, hot, hot . . . ! Take a peek at the final news report below.
I found these news reports appearing between Friday and today:
Economist Questions U.S. Jobless Rate
From the Oregonian July 18th:
Brief Excerpt:
The low U.S. unemployment rate probably understates the true level of joblessness by 1 to 3 percentage points, according to a prominent economist.
Millions of potential workers who dropped out of the labor force during the recession four years ago have not returned as expected and are thus not counted in the official unemployment statistics, said Katharine Bradbury, senior economist with the Boston Federal Reserve, in a paper published by the Boston Fed (www.bos.frb.org/economic/ppb/2005/ppb052.pdf).
From the Oregonian July 19th:
Corvalis, Vancouver Brace for HP Job Cuts
Brief Excerpt:
City officials in Vancouver and Corvallis tried to stay optimistic about their cities' employment prospects Monday, even as analysts increased their predictions of deep job cuts at Hewlett-Packard Co., which has major campuses in both cities.
News Reports About the Local Real Estate Bubble:
From the Oregonian on July 17th:
High Flying House Prices Fueled by Fever Can't Last
There's no denying it -- the housing market is hot. In the past year, prices have gone up nearly 13 percent in the Portland area and 12.5 percent nationally. Around the country big increases abound -- Las Vegas is up 34 percent, West Palm Beach, Fla., 25 percent and even hot, smoggy Fresno jumped 26 percent.
Hard as it is to imagine, those high-flying prices may be coming to an abrupt -- and for some, painful -- end. The sad truth is we're likely in the midst of a classic housing bubble.
Why do I say that? The first clue is the increase isn't explained by fundamentals. Over time, housing prices closely follow changes in household income. But in the past five years, housing prices have outpaced personal income. In Oregon, per capita income is up 12.5 percent since 2000; housing prices have jumped three times as much, up 38 percent.
A second clue is all the frenzied behavior. Houses sell days -- even hours -- after being listed, often above the asking price. Plenty of people are speculating on housing; one-third of home sales have been to investors and second-home buyers, according to the National Association of Realtors. And everyone, it seems, has heard of someone who "flipped" a house or condo for a big gain in just a few weeks.
Third, the buzz about higher prices feeds expectations; at least for a while, those expectations become a self-fulfilling prophecy. If prospective home buyers think prices will jump in six months, they have good reason to buy now, not later. That pumps up demand for homes by bringing more buyers into the market.
At times like this, we forget prices can go down, not just up. Given human nature, there's a centuries-long tradition of markets overshooting, then collapsing.
In the fabled Dutch tulip bulb mania of the 1630s, special varieties were named after Dutch naval admirals. Buyers paid 6,000 florins -- 40 times the average worker's annual earnings -- for a single bulb. And a rare bulb was an acceptable dowry for a bride, according to a bulb mania Web site. * * *
investigateworld :
Local building contractors are beefing about problems getting concrete delivered from Taiwan. New demands from China are making it impossible for local concrete suppliers to honor their contracts. You may do a keyword search inthe Oregonian yourself. If contractors cannot lay foundations they cannot put up commercial buildings.
HP Plans to lay Off 15,000 or one-tenth of its work force.
National Real Estate Bubble Feared
In summary, it appears to me that Oregon real estate prices are as much as 70% over valued. Don't believe me? Just take a drive into southern Washington and look at some houses. I drove up the coast looking at coastal properties in prime real estate markets. Saw many, many nice three bedroom homes near the ocean in the $ 100,000 to $ 132,000 range. In Portland, these cute homes would be selling for as much as $ 350,000. In other cities they would be selling for about $ 250,000.
Ergo, I'm waiting for the bubble break then I plan to scout out Washington near the ocean.
I heard from my brother up there who is in the field as we speak.
OOPs, write.
If you don't like the "official" unemployment rate, either because you believe it understates the "true" unemployment rate (ignoring, for example, so-called discouraged workers) or you think it overstates the "true" unemployment rate (counting, for example, nonworkers who aren't really actively seeking work) then you can customize your own unemployment rate with the data at
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm
I believe what I see with my own eyes. Oregon does not look like a state with only 6% unemployment. I believe the true rate is about 7.3% here (down from 9.5% in 2001). Washington has more corrupt state officials. Southern Washington has broad regions with low economic productivity. Eastern Tacoma looks like Beirut. I'm not kidding. Downtown Tacoma looks like Portland and eastern Tacoma looks like a marginal third world country.
Fair enough. Friends in Oregon report that the economic environment there, with the notable exception of Portland, has been bleak for over twenty years, so that's consistent with your observations.
But ... as for Bill Clinton "manipulating unemployment figures" while in office (in the sense that the White House exerted pressure on the Bureau of Labor Statistics to mis-report the survey results), that is far-fetched. Of course, the data can be "spun" in many ways, and we know Clinton was a master of the art of deceitful spin; if that's what you mean by "manipulation," then I fully agree. However, the *integrity* of the basic data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics is unchallenged by knowledgeable people across the political and ideological spectrum.
It's a wonder unemployment is higher with all of the anti-growth, ESA and EPA laws in Oregon.
They are coming up in droves from Cali.
Even people who live here are sending for there loved ones who are aging to move in so adding additions to homes.
Then valley people are investing in 2nd homes here on the coast which is sending real estate prices in to the high zone which is good for us. I will never sell though unless something happens to the King but he has plans on living to 100yrs. We will probably end up dontating it as a group home for the phyically severely disabled like King. It would be perfect for that and give independant living to those who otherwise do not have access. If I go before the King that is the plan too so he can stay here and have housemates perhaps even a few hospice severely disabled.
It is not seasonal here on the coast.
The GC's I know work around the year.
Timber is doing better unfortunetly Companies from Idaho are coming in and doing the work and bringing their employees with them.
The coast and the valley must be two different worlds.
We need employees in starter jobs and construction crews.
Can't find enough help
Not even the Cali's want to be in California as the population has shifted to minority as majority and cultural lifestyles are sometimes poor poverty barrios encroaching in on the 500,000.00 neighborhoods.
I here it alot from the newbies moving up here to raise their kids or retire.
Raising my son in a small rural coastal town for health and social reasons is why I came up 17yrs ago.
Heck I have aquaintences I met up here on the Coast who are from my old neighborhood in Pittsburg California.
One family shared the same respite care providers down in Cali 17yrs ago and we met up here not knowing each other down in Cali.
We use to ship raw timber out of the Port here years ago to Japan.
They put a cap on that though.
I betcha thought we are buying back lumber at high rates from the timber we originally sold to Japan and other countries.
I wish they would get off of the Tourist traffic to boost our economy and open back up fishing quotas before we lose that industry.
But, BUT..isn't this all Bush's fault?
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