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The Potomac Divide: new polls show close governor's races in Maryland '06 and Virginia '05
Rasmussen Reports, Mason-Dixon Polling | July 2005 | Rasmussen, Mason-Dixon

Posted on 07/25/2005 12:37:42 PM PDT by cogitator

MD Governor 2006: Ehrlich Faces Tough Re-election Bid
Surprise: Duncan (Montgomery County Exec) leads Ehrlich, but O'Malley (Baltimore mayor) trails Ehrlich head-to-head
I scent a polling bias here

Dead heat for governor's mansion
Surprise: every other poll shows Kilgore with a lead!
no surprise: Sabato likes the new poll; Potts could take more votes from Kilgore than from Kaine


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Maryland; US: Virginia
KEYWORDS: duncan; ehrlich; elections; governor; jerrykilgore; kaine; kilgore; maryland; omalley; poll; polls; virginia
Well, considering that the normal "state" of the two states would be Virginia with a Republican governor and Maryland with a Democratic governor, the current governors have that normalcy reversed. A switch back to the status quo in both states would be the most unsurprising outcome.
1 posted on 07/25/2005 12:37:45 PM PDT by cogitator
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To: cogitator

Want to bet they took the polls in Northern VA and on the DC/MD line?


2 posted on 07/25/2005 12:46:13 PM PDT by Spirited
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To: cogitator

I'm from Maryland, and Governor Ehrlich is pretty popular. I would bet on his reelection. Lt. Gov. Steele becoming a Senator would be a tsunami...and fabulous.


3 posted on 07/25/2005 12:54:05 PM PDT by rushmom
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To: cogitator

I'm sure Duncan will be trumpeting this poll. He may be less offputtting to the rest of the state than the Baltimore mayor.


4 posted on 07/25/2005 1:13:14 PM PDT by JohnnyZ ("I believe abortion should be safe and legal in this country." -- Mitt Romney)
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To: cogitator; Gabz; iceskater; Coop
We've discussed the Mason-Dixon poll extensively on other threads. It makes no sense.

1) it is inconsistent with every other single poll that has been taken in this race.

2) it comes off of a debate which even Sabato admitted that Kilgore won.

3) it shows them even in Northern Virginia. There's not way a Republican pulls even in Northern Virginia and falls behind in the rest of the state.

5 posted on 07/25/2005 1:16:19 PM PDT by Corin Stormhands (Join the Hobbit Hole Troop Support - http://freeper.the-hobbit-hole.net/)
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To: Corin Stormhands; cogitator; iceskater; Coop

You're right, it doesn't make any sense........and Mason/Dixon has been one of the more reliable ones over the years. This is so "off" for them.


6 posted on 07/25/2005 1:50:03 PM PDT by Gabz (USSG Warning: Portable sewing machines are known to cause broken ankles)
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To: JohnnyZ
I'm sure Duncan will be trumpeting this poll.

Yes, and he'd better, if he wants to beat O'Malley in the primary.

My guess is that the poll was weighted pretty evenly geographically, meaning that the core of O'Malley's name recognition and support was under-represented. There's still a long way to go.

7 posted on 07/25/2005 2:02:16 PM PDT by cogitator
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To: Corin Stormhands

I agree with the "non-sense" appraisal of the poll. Just thought I'd note the dual polling surprises from over the weekend.


8 posted on 07/25/2005 2:03:03 PM PDT by cogitator
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To: cogitator

When and why did Kilgore leave the attorney general's position? I am not too optimistic about Kilgore's chances, particularly if he downplays his obvious advantages out of fear of offending establishment media types.


9 posted on 07/25/2005 3:02:48 PM PDT by Theodore R. (Cowardice is forever!)
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To: Theodore R.

I think he's still Attorney General. I don't think he had to resign to run (but I could be wrong).


10 posted on 07/25/2005 3:29:29 PM PDT by cogitator
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To: Gabz

Mason/Dixon never polls out in the state's western sticks.

People are NOT "happy" with Ehrlich out here.

The "medical pot" issue, 'slot machines or higher taxes' blackmail and double car tag fees have not made him any friends out here.

Given that he credited the "high turnout" and win to those of us who live out here, he'd best not bet on a repeat.

The draconian MD gun laws haven't changed one iota, either.

The western MD "good ol' boys" may not vote Dem but they will stay home election day.

Like it or not, that's the consensus out here.





11 posted on 07/25/2005 5:11:55 PM PDT by Salamander (We're pain, we're steel, a plot of knives. We're Transmaniacon MC!)
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To: cogitator; Theodore R.

No, Kilgore resigned in February to campaign full time. It is more or less expected of the Attorney General when he/she becomes a candidate for Governor. Mary Sue Terry resigned. Jim Gilmore resigned. Mark Earley resigned.

Tim Kaine didn't have to resign because Lt. Governor is a part-time (session only) job.

It had nothing to do with offending established media types. The Attorney General simply could not represent the legal interests of the state AND campaign full time.

It's nothing new.


12 posted on 07/25/2005 5:53:51 PM PDT by Corin Stormhands (Join the Hobbit Hole Troop Support - http://freeper.the-hobbit-hole.net/)
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To: Corin Stormhands; cogitator; Theodore R.

But I should clarify, Kilgore was not ~required~ to resign.


13 posted on 07/25/2005 5:54:45 PM PDT by Corin Stormhands (Join the Hobbit Hole Troop Support - http://freeper.the-hobbit-hole.net/)
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To: Salamander

I'm not going to argue with you - no one could pay me enough to even think of living in Maryland. I fled Delaware because the socialist creep was creeping to close to home for me.

I only talk about what I know from my friends on the Eastern Shore........who to a one despise the fact that Baltimore basically controls the state and like what Ehrlich has attempted to do.


14 posted on 07/25/2005 7:38:53 PM PDT by Gabz (USSG Warning: Portable sewing machines are known to cause broken ankles)
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To: Corin Stormhands

I do not know of any other state where an attorney general resigns while he is campaigning for governor. Once popular Democrat Attorney General Jim Mattox of TX kept the office as he sought his party's gubernatorial nomination (in vain it turned out) in 1990. I don't think former VA Attorney General Marshall Coleman resigned when he ran for governor in 1981, did he? Attorney General Mark Pryor did not resign to run for the U.S. Senate in AR in 2002.


15 posted on 07/25/2005 8:08:58 PM PDT by Theodore R. (Cowardice is forever!)
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To: Gabz

Western Maryland is a mountainous paradise.

It's true that a few urban counties have their bootheels upon our throats but it'd be hard to find a more conservative area than where I live.

We *hoped* Ehrlich would save us from the socialist scum but it's not turned out that way.

It's possible that your Eastern friends can afford the higher taxes and doubled car tag fees but out here, most people can not.

[the general population consists of locals who've been here since before MD was even a state and their descendants. they work local jobs and are by no stretch of the imagination "rich people"]


Perhaps a true conservative Republican will someday be governor but we're realists and we're not holding our breath....:-(


16 posted on 07/25/2005 8:49:43 PM PDT by Salamander (We're pain, we're steel, a plot of knives. We're Transmaniacon MC!)
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To: Salamander

I understand the mountainous paradise of Western Maryland, but it seems you do not understand the concept of the Eastern Shore.........my friends are farmers and watermen who are descendents of Marylanders from prior to Maryland being a state....so please do not condesend about my "Eastern" friends.

The Governor can only do so much when he has a legislature controlled by the urban counties.........believe me, I know what I'm talking about. I've lived and worked on DelMarVa for more than 20 years.........I know conservatives.


17 posted on 07/25/2005 10:41:34 PM PDT by Gabz (USSG Warning: Portable sewing machines are known to cause broken ankles)
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To: Gabz

You have completely misunderstood my comment.
In no way, shape, or form was that meant as "condenscension".

Some areas of MD are *much* more well off financially than others.
I thought perhaps your friends lived in one of those areas.

"Eastern" was shorthand for 'Eastern Shore'.

I see there's no point in mentioning the feelings of western MD Republicans, regarding Ehrlich.

For whatever reason, it usually devolves into an argument.

I'll be amazed if he's reelected, though.






18 posted on 07/25/2005 10:51:34 PM PDT by Salamander (We're pain, we're steel, a plot of knives. We're Transmaniacon MC!)
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