Posted on 07/25/2005 12:37:42 PM PDT by cogitator
MD Governor 2006: Ehrlich Faces Tough Re-election Bid
Surprise: Duncan (Montgomery County Exec) leads Ehrlich, but O'Malley (Baltimore mayor) trails Ehrlich head-to-head
I scent a polling bias here
Dead heat for governor's mansion
Surprise: every other poll shows Kilgore with a lead!
no surprise: Sabato likes the new poll; Potts could take more votes from Kilgore than from Kaine
Want to bet they took the polls in Northern VA and on the DC/MD line?
I'm from Maryland, and Governor Ehrlich is pretty popular. I would bet on his reelection. Lt. Gov. Steele becoming a Senator would be a tsunami...and fabulous.
I'm sure Duncan will be trumpeting this poll. He may be less offputtting to the rest of the state than the Baltimore mayor.
1) it is inconsistent with every other single poll that has been taken in this race.
2) it comes off of a debate which even Sabato admitted that Kilgore won.
3) it shows them even in Northern Virginia. There's not way a Republican pulls even in Northern Virginia and falls behind in the rest of the state.
You're right, it doesn't make any sense........and Mason/Dixon has been one of the more reliable ones over the years. This is so "off" for them.
Yes, and he'd better, if he wants to beat O'Malley in the primary.
My guess is that the poll was weighted pretty evenly geographically, meaning that the core of O'Malley's name recognition and support was under-represented. There's still a long way to go.
I agree with the "non-sense" appraisal of the poll. Just thought I'd note the dual polling surprises from over the weekend.
When and why did Kilgore leave the attorney general's position? I am not too optimistic about Kilgore's chances, particularly if he downplays his obvious advantages out of fear of offending establishment media types.
I think he's still Attorney General. I don't think he had to resign to run (but I could be wrong).
Mason/Dixon never polls out in the state's western sticks.
People are NOT "happy" with Ehrlich out here.
The "medical pot" issue, 'slot machines or higher taxes' blackmail and double car tag fees have not made him any friends out here.
Given that he credited the "high turnout" and win to those of us who live out here, he'd best not bet on a repeat.
The draconian MD gun laws haven't changed one iota, either.
The western MD "good ol' boys" may not vote Dem but they will stay home election day.
Like it or not, that's the consensus out here.
No, Kilgore resigned in February to campaign full time. It is more or less expected of the Attorney General when he/she becomes a candidate for Governor. Mary Sue Terry resigned. Jim Gilmore resigned. Mark Earley resigned.
Tim Kaine didn't have to resign because Lt. Governor is a part-time (session only) job.
It had nothing to do with offending established media types. The Attorney General simply could not represent the legal interests of the state AND campaign full time.
It's nothing new.
But I should clarify, Kilgore was not ~required~ to resign.
I'm not going to argue with you - no one could pay me enough to even think of living in Maryland. I fled Delaware because the socialist creep was creeping to close to home for me.
I only talk about what I know from my friends on the Eastern Shore........who to a one despise the fact that Baltimore basically controls the state and like what Ehrlich has attempted to do.
I do not know of any other state where an attorney general resigns while he is campaigning for governor. Once popular Democrat Attorney General Jim Mattox of TX kept the office as he sought his party's gubernatorial nomination (in vain it turned out) in 1990. I don't think former VA Attorney General Marshall Coleman resigned when he ran for governor in 1981, did he? Attorney General Mark Pryor did not resign to run for the U.S. Senate in AR in 2002.
Western Maryland is a mountainous paradise.
It's true that a few urban counties have their bootheels upon our throats but it'd be hard to find a more conservative area than where I live.
We *hoped* Ehrlich would save us from the socialist scum but it's not turned out that way.
It's possible that your Eastern friends can afford the higher taxes and doubled car tag fees but out here, most people can not.
[the general population consists of locals who've been here since before MD was even a state and their descendants. they work local jobs and are by no stretch of the imagination "rich people"]
Perhaps a true conservative Republican will someday be governor but we're realists and we're not holding our breath....:-(
I understand the mountainous paradise of Western Maryland, but it seems you do not understand the concept of the Eastern Shore.........my friends are farmers and watermen who are descendents of Marylanders from prior to Maryland being a state....so please do not condesend about my "Eastern" friends.
The Governor can only do so much when he has a legislature controlled by the urban counties.........believe me, I know what I'm talking about. I've lived and worked on DelMarVa for more than 20 years.........I know conservatives.
You have completely misunderstood my comment.
In no way, shape, or form was that meant as "condenscension".
Some areas of MD are *much* more well off financially than others.
I thought perhaps your friends lived in one of those areas.
"Eastern" was shorthand for 'Eastern Shore'.
I see there's no point in mentioning the feelings of western MD Republicans, regarding Ehrlich.
For whatever reason, it usually devolves into an argument.
I'll be amazed if he's reelected, though.
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