PA State Auditor Bob Casey, Jr (D) Leads Sen. Rick Santorum (R) In Latest Rasmussen Survey

Rasmussen Reports ^ | July 26, 2005

[Clintonfatigued]

Santorum trails Democrat Bob Casey, Jr by eleven percentage points, 52% to 41%.

[RWR8189]

This is about the 2nd or 3rd poll I've seen with numbers like that.

Not good news for Santorum. He has a tough fight ahead of him.

[Clintonfatigued]

The poll also gives Santorum a negative rating of 43%. With all the bad publicity he's gotten, he will need a big break to be reelected.

[thoughtomator]

The election is a long way away.

[MikefromOhio]

slick rick better kick it in the butt...

Where I lived in South Central PA always seemed to like the Casey name when his dad was governor and it is a fairly Conservative area....

[Kuksool]

Casey has a couple of 2nd tier challengers in the RAT primary. Hopefully, these challengers will make abortion the #1 issue and cause the DUmmies to sit out the Pa Senate race. Another note, Casey is having trouble raising money despite his pedigree family name. Rick Santorum has $5 million in the bank. Whereas, Casey only has $1 million.

[HisKingdomWillAbolishSinDeath]

Absolutely meaningless.

[Erik Latranyi]

Not good news for Santorum. He has a tough fight ahead of him.

No thanks to the "all or nothing" conservatives that still refuse to support Santorum due to his support of Specter over Toomey.

They wanted Specter thrown out. Instead, we will lose the only real conservative we have in the Senate from the Northeast.

[HostileTerritory]

Actually, I think it's more like the 2nd or 3rd time you've seen the same poll posted. It came out days ago and keeps coming up.

Santorum's in trouble.

[Coop]

Hey, that's the spirit! Give up on a race with a well-funded incumbent not facing his challenger for another year!

[FlingWingFlyer]

This is good stuff to know 15 months out of the election.

[comebacknewt]

Where I lived in South Central PA always seemed to like the Casey name when his dad was governor and it is a fairly Conservative area....

The GOP is going to have to find a way to drive Casey's negatives way up, and it is going to be tough to do. As you suggest, the Casey name is revered in most of PA.

Unfortunately, Rick is going to have to come back from pretty far down if he is going to hold his seat.

[RushingWater]

HMM - I think his move to ban the National Weather Service from giving us weather has hurt him enormously.

[crazyhorse691]

If those numbers were from July 22, 2006 then there might be a reason for doom and gloom, if you believe a poll of 500 people.

[DrDeb]

Conducted almost a week ago, this is one of Rasmussen's ONE night FLASH polls (highly unreliable). That said, this will be a tough race . . . a conservative Republican in a blue state!

On the plus side . . . the race is still a 'life time' a way!

[mombrown1]

Casey has given up his pro-life agenda having taken money from Schumer and Soros. He has said he can support the dems and their pro-choice agenda. Just need to get the word out.

[Archon of the East]

Much of his Negative rating is from his own base that will come around in the end though it may not be enough

[Dan from Michigan]

Santorum needs a lot of help to win. If the Rats implode over abortion, it MIGHT work if the primary is nasty.

[Theodore R.]

Yes, the Caseys were always good at positioning themselves as the "friends of the little man," which goes over well in unionized states.

[Kuksool]

It would help if Santorum kept his mouth closed. Lately, he is becoming our version of Howard Dean.

[Williams]

I agree it's early and I definitely want to see Santorum reelected but poll or no my gut tells me the Casey name is a big big problem for Santorum. Casey Sr. was a pro lifer dissed by the liberal dems who died I believe after a liver or heart transplant. So you have a beloved father who has inoculated the son against charges of being a leftist.

Of course it's not fair to Santorum who's done a great and principled job, but people vote on gut reactions not fairness.

[Archon of the East]

His big problem right now is how people are perceiving his debacle with the Penn Hills school system. Even Conservatives are upset. I think he is making a smart move on Family values. Western Pa is largely what I call Democrat Automatic, mostly from Union families. They are however very socially conservative. They do the Knee jerk pull the D lever thing. It amazing how many Dems I talk to around here that hate the ACLU, are Church going, strong family, and pro life. They just refuse to see who has taken over their party. Their age may explain their stubbornness

[Clintonfatigued]

Good point, but Bob Casey's pro-life position innoculates him from a backlash from those voters.

[Archon of the East]

That is the dilemma but with Soros and Company behind the scenes and the fact that he really isn't pro life in principle only politics, much can happen. I look for the "money" to ask Casey to throw the NARAL gang of death a bone and I look for Santorum to launch a Casey aint his father component of his campaign. No doubt he has a battle but not done by a long shot. His support for Spector really hurt him with his base, but they will come around.

[Russ]

One positive Santorum has going for him is that Casey will not get enough votes in Philadelphia to win his race statewide. Also, if Lynn Swann is the eventual Republican candidate running against Rendell he will syphon off black voters in Philadelphia which will further help Santorum. Finally, look for the Green Party to run a strong third party candidate and flank Casey from the left. Many pro-abortion, anti-gun voters will vote Green and pull votes from Casey.

[Pharmer]

Rick had a low profile his first term. He served the constuency and made no waves in the Lott run senate. But as Bush won 2000 Rick became a target. He is a particular foe of Gov. Ed Rendell who back in 1994 as the Pubies swept into congressional majority, declared the then new governor of PA, Tom Ridge was a reasonable man; but Rick S , the man who dared to defeat uberliberal Harris Wofford, as a redneck PA hick. Since Bush won 2004, Rick is a target of the Philly news papers. He is our local Karl Rove

[Archon of the East]

All good points, though I wonder if Soros has his eyes set on this race , what influence can he have stopping a significant 3rd party from interfering?

[airborne]

Well, I still live in South Central PA. And I promise to do all that I can to prevent Casey from becoming my Senator!

[ntnychik]

Was the polling done in center city Philly?
Santorum was treated like a rock star at the Bush rally in 'rat Erie in September. As soon as he moved from his seat, the crowd was on its feet, even before he was introduced. Specter was there, too, greeted by a few polite claps and a lot of audible grumbling.

[dufekin]

If I understand the unions correctly, membership in one (often required to secure a job) requires that one devote his vote in both life and death to the Democrats, and to support them wholeheartedly and unflinchingly no matter what they may say or do, and to campaign vigorously for them. In return, the union allows them to work and the Democrats tolerate their churchgoing ways.

In any case, the Pennsylvania Democratic Party has certified that Santorum will lose, so lose he shall. The "live, eligible human" vote shall be irrelevant if Santorum carries it; the Democrats will suppress Santorum votes and fabricate sufficient votes for their party to ensure victory. And it's a blue state, so it would be a severe uphill battle to get the "live, eligible human" vote. Also remember, many Pennsylvanians are senior citizens, and Santorum will take their Social Security if re-elected--they can count on it.

[Russ]

Many in the Green Party are zealots who will not be swayed by the likes of Soros and his money. In a close election, which this one will be, if they even get 3% of the vote it could be the difference Santorum needs to win.

[Archon of the East]

Yea now that i think about some of the quotes these life's losers have made, they are definitely over the top and anarchist's at heart. I wouldn't be suprised if Rove is paying for their room at Motel 6 :)

I think ultimately Santorum will pull it off.

[Bushbacker]

I agree about the "all or nothing" conservatives...but the fact is that Bob Casey's father was a popular figure in PA and the state is moderately blue now...Santorum lucked out twice with limp Democratic opponents, but not this time...

[Williams]

Let's keep in mind President Bush didn't win the state.

[KenmcG414]

I like Santorum, but I'm sorry to say I think I hear the fat lady singing.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"Good point, but Bob Casey's pro-life position innoculates him from a backlash from those voters."

---

But Casey will have to say what he means when he says he is "pro-life." One huge issue will be the filibuster of judicial nominees. Will Casey support the liberal Democrats who take their marching orders from NARAL and thus block up-or-down votes for judicial nominees?

Let us not forget that Rick Santorum is uniquely capable of getting votes from blue-collar Democrats from the Pittsburgh area. He was elected to Congress in 1990 by beating a Democrat incumbent in a Democrat district (which was giving huge margins to Casey, Sr.), and after 1992 redistricting won in an even more Democrat district (which included the industrial Mon Valley). These are districts that had given Dukakis like 60% in 1988, but voted for Santorum because of his principled conservatism.

Rick Santorum needs to convince conservative voters that he is still the same old Rick, and that he supported Arlen Specter's reelection out of loyalty to his senior senator, not because he agrees with Specter more than with Toomey. Once conservatives come back to Rick's camp, and once Casey is forced to take positions and actually show his face around the state, you'll see Santorum catch up in the polls. Santorum will win, 52%-47%.

[MikefromOhio]

where at?

I lived in the hell that is Waynesboro...

[Darkwolf377]

Santorum is on Matthews right now, and I hate to say it, but he looks like a dope.