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Bubble babble (re: "Housing bubble")
Town Hall ^ | July 28, 2005 | Alan Reynolds

Posted on 07/28/2005 3:59:07 PM PDT by Sonny M

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To: bill1952

what kind of car is that?


21 posted on 07/28/2005 5:25:52 PM PDT by durasell (Friends are so alarming, My lover's never charming...)
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To: Beelzebubba

Essentially, China is sucking up a huge amount of housing materials, and that does increase the price in that sector.


22 posted on 07/28/2005 5:25:53 PM PDT by bill1952 ("All that we do is done with an eye towards something else.")
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To: durasell

Durasell my good friend, that is an 86 Ferrari Testarossa.


23 posted on 07/28/2005 5:27:44 PM PDT by bill1952 ("All that we do is done with an eye towards something else.")
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To: K4Harty
Wonder if baby boomer's retiring will have an impact on the housing market

Antidotal evidence:

I am one the first baby boomers.......my plans.......retire this year.....stay in my 2700 sq. ft. 4 bedroom, 2 & 1/2 bath colonial (or move to a ranch of similar value) in Oakland Co. in SE Mich...Will move to a condo in approx. 10 to 15 years when my wife of 34 years and I can no longer maintain a home.

24 posted on 07/28/2005 5:29:55 PM PDT by Tripleplay
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To: bill1952

Oh. Thought it might have been a new Vette or something. Nice looking car, though probably a bit@h to maintain. My motto: beware of cars where qualified mechanics wear lab coats!


25 posted on 07/28/2005 5:30:11 PM PDT by durasell (Friends are so alarming, My lover's never charming...)
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To: Sonny M

I will send you the article on some of these Rocket Scientist 0%'ers who can't pay their property taxes because they can't get another refi.


26 posted on 07/28/2005 5:31:05 PM PDT by BurbankKarl
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To: Black Tooth
As American goes from a country of 300 million, to 1 billion....Those looking for the great deal, will have a long wait.

Bingo. People aren't going to live in caves.

27 posted on 07/28/2005 5:33:07 PM PDT by antienvironmentalist
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To: Tripleplay

That is about it, except you are downsizing in the house a little later that I think most will.


28 posted on 07/28/2005 5:38:42 PM PDT by IllumiNaughtyByNature (If Islam is the Religion of Peace, they should FIRE their PR guy!)
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To: BurbankKarl

How does that work? Run the typical scenario by me, if you can?


29 posted on 07/28/2005 5:39:47 PM PDT by durasell (Friends are so alarming, My lover's never charming...)
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To: bill1952
PSL is now the fastest growing city in the Nation

How's Fort Pierce doing? My parents are from there, and my grandparents spent a large portion of their lives there. I haven't been there in years, though, except for the occasional funeral.

30 posted on 07/28/2005 5:43:16 PM PDT by vollmond (Head back to base for debriefing and cocktails.)
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To: Sonny M
There is always a bubble, or a bust, somewhere. Ironically, we did poorly in the 90s while everyone was kicking and did much better in the 00s while others were really struggling. So I know this first hand. Just as all politics are local, all economics are personal. We can only see broad trends.
31 posted on 07/28/2005 5:44:52 PM PDT by pollyannaish
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To: Sonny M

I just sold a house in Orange County and netted 600k after 7 years. Here in So Cal it's still demand>supply.


32 posted on 07/28/2005 5:45:54 PM PDT by socal_parrot (Daddy don't conga!)
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To: durasell

a zero percent mortgage? you pay no principle for a couple years.....

the latest is the 1% mortgage, in which your principle goes up every month....but "much less than the 25% your house will appreciate"

hahah

it's a win win


33 posted on 07/28/2005 5:56:34 PM PDT by BurbankKarl
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To: Pessimist
You may want to reread the article. The quote you cited is one that the author seeks to debunk. It was not his solution, but the solution of the New York Times writer Anna Bernasek in "Hear a Pop? Watch Out." The paragraph again:

Bernasek went on to fret that "a fall in values ... would probably lead to tightened credit standards, less lending and higher interest rates." Yet her sources believe "the most attractive way for policy makers to cool the housing market would be to put pressure on lenders to tighten their credit standards" and for the Fed to "nudge the long end of the market toward higher rates." Their proposed solution is identical to the assumed problem.

34 posted on 07/28/2005 6:01:50 PM PDT by Lowcountry (RIP: Peterdanbrokaw)
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To: Sonny M

Housing COSTS are connected nationally in the sense that demand for housing drives the demand for mortgages and thus increases interest rates.

A housing bubble in NYC may not raise the price of a house in Idaho but it may in fact raise the cost of acquiring that house.


35 posted on 07/28/2005 6:05:06 PM PDT by Straight Vermonter (John 6: 51-58)
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To: Black Tooth
Does this make sense?

Some areas become undesirable over time, thus folks will spend more on another area and live there.

One of the problems with these bubble theories is that they don't take buyers often enough into account.

Nor circumstances, granted "red lining" no longer officially takes place, but it also manipulates areas and is a reason why if one goes from one part of a city to another, you could see a bubble burst while the other area might surge.

36 posted on 07/28/2005 6:09:03 PM PDT by Sonny M ("oderint dum metuant")
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To: SF Republican
what is the old line? recession is when your neighbor is out of work, depression is when you are.

And a recovery is when Jimmy loses his.

President Reagan added to it, great line.

That said, housing markets differ under circumstances and various other reasons, its why one area can be booming, while another area for totally different reasons is falling through the floor.

37 posted on 07/28/2005 6:11:23 PM PDT by Sonny M ("oderint dum metuant")
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To: Beelzebubba
Reasons for rising Home Prices/Values:

1.)Material costs of construction are rising rapidly, which is due to:

2.)Demand increases from a growing population, which is exacerbated by:

3.)Age-extended generations now need housing for 3 generations vs 2 and

4.)Net In-Migration to many regions from immigration and population shifts to the sunbelt and finally

5.)George W's growing economy makes people rich enough to buy homes instead of renting.

I could add in the costs of government regulation and boomers buying second homes, but I think you get the drift. BTW - I'm a developer.

38 posted on 07/28/2005 6:17:37 PM PDT by Lowcountry (RIP: Peterdanbrokaw)
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To: Tripleplay

Umm...the word is anecdotal, not antidotal. LMAO. Glad you have such a large house, and you've done it by god with little command of the English language.


39 posted on 07/28/2005 6:19:09 PM PDT by Hilltop
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To: durasell
Also, housing booms on the coasts have sparked local economies and businesses far away. This would include timber and siding as well as fixtures. And, too, money being extracted from home equity has purchased products that have kept many factories humming, both here and abroad.

That could easily be expanded to almost insane levels to the point of if India has a recession in one city (while another city, due to creating a better economic atmosphere got a boom) then its effect would be felt in Wisconsin.

The things that create housing booms are far more often mistaken for being the results of that boom.

I.E. factories are built in an area, workers move there, the prices of housing go up as jobs are created along with wage growth, a journalist will see this and conclude that the factory is the result of the boom, not the cause of it.

40 posted on 07/28/2005 6:26:16 PM PDT by Sonny M ("oderint dum metuant")
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