Posted on 08/05/2005 5:35:42 AM PDT by RWR8189
In July 207,000 jobs were created, above expectations, and the unemployment rate held steady at 5.0%
Upward revisions for May and June as well.
Bush's Fault.
5% is pretty damn good, IMHO.
Wonder if that will make the NYT's?
Most excellent news. Here come the doomers and gloomers, watch out....
You will find it on Page W62.
Wonder if they're all dishwashers or lawn mowers.
Beware the warnings of an overheating economy and rampant inflation.
Herbert Hoover's legacy is safe.
They are usually low when first announced.
I think 5% is pretty much the frictional rate of unemployment. If we push it down below that, we will see some inflation.
Wow, almost in the 4. + percent range. Amazing.
May revised to +126,000 payrolls.
June revised to +166,000 payrolls.
Good news. Maybe this will help with tax receipts and the deficit will drop even further than projected. As tired as we get of hearing the doom and gloom from the DemoRats, I get equally tired listening to the "true" conservatives gripe about the deficit. I hate the deficit too, but the administration policies seem to be growing us out of debt.
U.S. July Payrolls Rise 207,000; Jobless Rate Holds at 5%
Aug. 5 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. employers added 207,000 workers in July, more than forecast, suggesting companies are gaining confidence as the economy picks up steam in the second half. The unemployment rate held at 5 percent.
The increase in payrolls exceeded the median estimate of a 180,000 rise and reflected more jobs at retailers, auto dealers and financial services firms. Employment rose by 166,000 jobs in June, more than previously reported, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The jobless rate matched the lowest since September 2001.
The labor market data are the latest in a recent string of reports showing accelerating economic growth that may encourage the Federal Reserve to extend its series of interest rate increases, economists said. Hourly earnings rose 0.4 percent last month, the most in a year, which economists said will support spending and the economy even as higher gasoline prices take a bigger chunk out of workers' paychecks.
``The outlook is great, and the economy is firing on all cylinders,'' said Brian Wesbury, chief investment strategist at Claymore Advisors LLC in Lisle, Illinois, before the report. ``Businesses are confident, and I think the job market is stronger than the numbers this year have suggested.''
Companies that can no longer depend on efficiency gains to meet demand are hiring more, economists said. Average job growth this year is 191,000, more than the 183,000 in 2004, when the economy expanded the most since 1999. An index reflecting the number of industries hiring jumped to 62.8 in July, the highest since May 2004.
The expected increase in payrolls was the median of 74 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey and followed a previously reported 146,000 rise in June. May employment was revised higher as well. Estimates ranged from gains of 80,000 to 300,000. They also forecast the jobless rate would hold at 5 percent.
5% unemployment = full employment. Very damn good.
Pelosi and Clinton are deeply saddened...
Naw it is horrible under a GOP admin, excellent under a RAT admin.. If you get my meaning..
Bushbot!!!
95% OF THE PEOPLE WHO CAN WORK ARE WORKING!
Great news! Of course Kermit the Frog Greenspam & Co. will raise the interest rates on Tuesday.
Thank goodness that clown is gone at the end of the year!
I wonder how much his wife has made off the Market?
Just imagine what "real" tax reform would do.
If they did it right, we would see "Tiger" growth rates, and small businesses explode.
Still, for a "developed" economy to have this much growth, this level of unemployment and this level of inflation is pretty rare today, and has been pretty rare since ww2.
Didn't Clinton run his second campaign touting a 5.6% unemployment rate?
The only employment problem I have (and I've talked with a bunch of other businessmen in my area who have the same problem) is that it's impossible to find people to hire, they just aren't out there. I have to go try to steal employees from my competitors.
Good news! Of course, the democrats and/or whiners will say people are employed, but they are making less money OR some people have just given up finding work because it's the worst economy since Hoover and it's all Bush's fault.
Just kidding... This economy is good despite the 9/11 attacks and the corporate scandles that we have..
Absolutely awesome.
Also from the other day -- the lowest trade deficit since 1947.
He's made up a third of a trillion in the budget imbalance as well.
Economy's on a roll.
Series Id: LNS14000000 Seasonal Adjusted Series title: (Seas) Unemployment Rate Labor force status: Unemployment rate Type of data: Percent Age: 16 years and over |
|||||||||||||
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Annual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1996 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 5.4 | |
| 1997 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.7 | |
| 2004 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.4 | |
| 2005 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.0 | ||||||
Prediction............there will be NO mention of this in the MSM.
It might be a half point this time.
Alan's trying to buy more bullets back for the next recession.
Of course their wont be any mention of it in the MSM. They have to lead with their latest 'Bush is lazy', 'Bolton was an abuse of power', or 'Roberts will turn back the clock on civil rights' stories.
[Begin thundering Ted Kennedy rant] "The economy is a shambles! People are suffering! The unemployment rate is down -- among the RICH!!!! But what about the poor???? Those Republicans don't care!" [End thundering Ted Kennedy rant]
The tax cuts haven't worked. They have benefited only the rich. Millions of Americans are losing their jobs... We need more taxes! </sarcasm>
Indeed and it's rare that you hear anything about the natural rate of unemployment these days (which I still subscribe to). I have it pegged right at 5% and anything lower might even be a problem.
Interest rate management is a tricky business. After 9/11 the rates were lowered to virtually nothing in order to stimulate the economy. This along with the tax cuts worked just fine, but it is important that rates be judiciously elevated if for no other reason then to have room for them to be lowered when the next business slow down occurs. Look what happened in Japan. They lowered rates to zero and when the economy failed to pick up significant steam, they had no where to go when the need again rose to "prime the pump"
Don't forget about Karl Rove..
I wish they would call it a 95% employment rate instead. Sounds even better.
I believe years ago (10 or so) an unemployment rate of 6% was considered full employment and lower thhen that considered inflationary.
Gee, I wonder where all that doom and gloom reported by the MSM and the dems before the elections is at? I mean gas prices are up a bit but everything else is doing fine.
Oh and don't give me that "Well when you adjust for inflation" crapola either because I wasn't driving in the early eighties, I really don't care what the inflation adjusted rates are. All I know is it used to cost me $18 to fill up my tank and now it is almost $40.
Or the 95% of Americans who want to work and have skills are 100% employed.
The MSM will report this, but it will be a footnote to some report on outsourcing, delivered with a sniff and lowered voice. I've got money on it.
especially in the summer and with Auto plants having season shut downs - the real number is 4.8 or 4.85
Thanks, I'm glad that you can afford a ping during the worse economy since Hoover while living in Hooverville.
You've got it. The news, followed by the ever present "BUT"...........and in dark tones the caveat that this is not really good news, and the dire predictions for the future........
Harry Reid is Deepy Saddened.
______________________________
Technical information:
Household data: (202) 691-6378 USDL 05-1459
http://www.bls.gov/cps/
Establishment data: 691-6555 Transmission of material in this release
http://www.bls.gov/ces/ is embargoed until 8:30 A.M. (EDT),
Media contact: 691-5902 Friday, August 5, 2005.
THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: JULY 2005
Nonfarm employment grew by 207,000 in July, and the unemployment rate was
unchanged at 5.0 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Depart-
ment of Labor reported today. Over the month, payroll employment rose in many
service-providing industries.
Unemployment (Household Survey Data)
Both the number of unemployed persons, 7.5 million, and the unemployment
rate, 5.0 percent, were unchanged in July. A year earlier, the number of
unemployed was 8.2 million and the jobless rate was 5.5 percent.
Over the month, the unemployment rates for most major worker groups--adult
men (4.3 percent), adult women (4.7 percent), teenagers (16.1 percent), whites
(4.3 percent), and Hispanics or Latinos (5.5 percent)--showed little or no
change. The jobless rate for blacks declined from 10.3 to 9.5 percent over
the month. The unemployment rate for Asians was 5.2 percent, not seasonally
adjusted. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)
Total Employment and the Labor Force (Household Survey Data)
Both total employment and the civilian labor force rose in July. The em-
ployment-population ratio, at 62.8 percent, and the labor force participation
rate, at 66.1 percent, were essentially unchanged over the month. The employ-
ment-population ratio has trended up in recent months. (See table A-1.)
Persons Not in the Labor Force (Household Survey Data)
In July, 1.5 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force,
about the same as a year earlier. These individuals wanted and were available
to work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were
not counted as unemployed, however, because they did not actively search for
work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. There were 499,000 discouraged
workers in July, about the same as a year earlier. Discouraged workers, a
subset of the marginally attached, were not currently looking for work
--------------------------------------------------------------------
| Hurricane Dennis |
| |
| Hurricane Dennis struck near the beginning of the July reference |
| period, affecting parts of Florida, Alabama, and Mississippi. BLS |
| examined survey data from the counties in the path of the storm to |
| ensure that payroll survey responses were at normal levels. Our |
| examination of the survey data suggests that there were no discern-|
| able weather-related effects on national payroll employment as mea-|
| sured by the establishment survey. For the storm to have affected |
| payroll employment, people would have had to have been off work for|
| the entire pay period and not paid for the time missed. (In the |
| household survey, people who miss work for weather-related events |
| are counted as employed whether or not they are paid for the time |
| off.) |
-------------------------------------------------------------------
- 2 -
Table A. Major indicators of labor market activity, seasonally adjusted
(Numbers in thousands)
______________________________________________________________________________
| Quarterly | |
| averages | Monthly data |
|_________________|__________________________| June-
Category | 2005 | 2005 | July
|_________________|__________________________|change
| I | II | May | June | July |
________________________|________|________|________|________|________|_______
HOUSEHOLD DATA | Labor force status
|____________________________________________________
Civilian labor force.... | 148,089| 149,003| 149,122| 149,123| 149,573| 450
Employment............ | 140,296| 141,404| 141,475| 141,638| 142,076| 438
Unemployment.......... | 7,794| 7,599| 7,647| 7,486| 7,497| 11
Not in labor force...... | 76,949| 76,671| 76,547| 76,787| 76,580| -207
|________|________|________|________|________|_______
| Unemployment rates
|____________________________________________________
All workers..............| 5.3| 5.1| 5.1| 5.0| 5.0| 0.0
Adult men..............| 4.7| 4.4| 4.4| 4.3| 4.3| .0
Adult women............| 4.6| 4.6| 4.6| 4.6| 4.7| .1
Teenagers..............| 16.9| 17.4| 17.9| 16.4| 16.1| -.3
White..................| 4.5| 4.4| 4.4| 4.3| 4.3| .0
Black or African | | | | | |
American.............| 10.6| 10.3| 10.1| 10.3| 9.5| -.8
Hispanic or Latino | | | | | |
ethnicity............| 6.1| 6.1| 6.0| 5.8| 5.5| -.3
|________|________|________|________|________|_______
ESTABLISHMENT DATA | Employment
|____________________________________________________
Nonfarm employment.......| 132,814|p133,426| 133,413|p133,579|p133,786| p207
Goods-producing(1).....| 22,054| p22,135| 22,138| p22,136| p22,140| p4
Construction.........| 7,127| p7,216| 7,213| p7,228| p7,235| p7
Manufacturing........| 14,314| p14,294| 14,301| p14,280| p14,276| p-4
Service-providing(1)...| 110,759|p111,292| 111,275|p111,443|p111,646| p203
Retail trade(2)......| 15,112| p15,180| 15,186| p15,195| p15,245| p50
Professional and | | | | | |
business services..| 16,755| p16,867| 16,851| p16,908| p16,941| p33
Education and health | | | | | |
services...........| 17,191| p17,288| 17,289| p17,332| p17,353| p21
Leisure and | | | | | |
hospitality........| 12,641| p12,740| 12,736| p12,760| p12,793| p33
Government...........| 21,725| p21,752| 21,754| p21,756| p21,782| p26
|________|________|________|________|________|_______
| Hours of work(3)
|____________________________________________________
Total private............| 33.7| p33.7| 33.7| p33.7| p33.7| p0.0
Manufacturing..........| 40.6| p40.4| 40.4| p40.4| p40.4| p.0
Overtime.............| 4.5| p4.4| 4.4| p4.4| p4.5| p.1
|________|________|________|________|________|_______
| Indexes of aggregate weekly hours (2002=100)(3)
|____________________________________________________
Total private............| 101.7| p102.4| 102.3| p102.5| p102.7| p0.2
|________|________|________|________|________|_______
| Earnings(3)
|____________________________________________________
Avg. hourly earnings, | | | | | |
total private..........| $15.92| p$16.03| $16.03| p$16.07| p$16.13| p$0.06
Avg. weekly earnings, | | | | | |
total private..........| 536.51| p540.86| 540.21| p541.56| p543.58| p2.02
_________________________|________|________|________|________|________|_______
1 Includes other industries, not shown separately.
2 Quarterly averages and the over-the-month change are calculated using
unrounded data.
3 Data relate to private production or nonsupervisory workers.
p=preliminary.
- 3 -
specifically because they believed no jobs were available for them. The other
1.0 million persons marginally attached to the labor force had not searched for
work for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities.
(See table A-13.)
Industry Payroll Employment (Establishment Survey Data)
Total nonfarm employment rose by 207,000 in July to 133.8 million, season-
ally adjusted. This followed job gains of 126,000 in May and 166,000 in June
(as revised). In July, there were employment gains in many service-providing
industries, including retail trade, professional and technical services, finan-
cial activities, food services, and health care. (See table B-1.)
Retail trade employment rose by 50,000 in July, following little change in
June. This industry has gained 197,000 jobs over the year. In July, retail
employment gains were widespread, including growth in clothing stores (13,000),
motor vehicle and parts dealers (10,000), and building material and garden
supply stores (7,000).
Employment in professional and technical services increased by 23,000 in
July. Over the year, this industry has added 211,000 jobs. Management and
technical consulting services, as well as architectural and engineering
services, contributed to the July gain.
Employment in financial activities rose by 21,000 over the month, as credit
intermediation and real estate showed continued strength. Since July 2004,
employment in credit intermediation has grown by 93,000, while real estate has
added 54,000 jobs.
Elsewhere in the service-providing sector, employment in food services and
drinking places rose by 30,000 over the month. This industry has added 262,000
jobs over the year. The health care industry continued to grow in July, adding
29,000 jobs. Ambulatory health care services (which includes doctors' offices
and outpatient clinics), hospitals, and nursing and residential care facilities
all contributed to the employment gain. Temporary help services employment was
flat in July and has shown little net change since April.
In the goods-producing sector, construction employment continued to trend
up. Thus far this year, job gains in construction have averaged 21,000 per
month, about in line with the average monthly increase for 2004. In July, manu-
facturing employment was about unchanged. The motor vehicle and parts industry
shed 11,000 jobs, reflecting larger-than-usual shutdowns for annual retooling.
Employment in wood products fell by 4,000. These losses were partly offset
by small increases in several other manufacturing industries. Mining employ-
ment remained about the same over the month.
- 4 -
Weekly Hours (Establishment Survey Data)
The average workweek for production or nonsupervisory workers on private
nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 33.7 hours in July, seasonally adjusted.
The manufacturing workweek remained at 40.4 hours, while manufacturing over-
time increased by 0.1 hour to 4.5 hours. (See table B-2.)
The index of aggregate weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers
on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 0.2 percent in July to 102.7 (2002=100).
The manufacturing index was down by 0.1 percent over the month to 93.4. (See
table B-5.)
Hourly and Weekly Earnings (Establishment Survey Data)
Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private
nonfarm payrolls rose by 6 cents in July to $16.13, seasonally adjusted.
Average weekly earnings increased by 0.4 percent over the month to $543.58.
Over the year, both average hourly and weekly earnings grew by 2.7 percent.
(See table B-3.)
______________________________
The Employment Situation for August 2005 is scheduled to be released on
Friday, September 2, at 8:30 A.M. (EDT).
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