Not necessarily. While Clintoon currently has a sizable lead over Pirro in the polls, when asked whether they approve of Pirro, something like 38% of the people polled had no opinion because they had never heard of her. Pirro will never beat the Hildebeast in NYC, but she is very popular in the northern suburbs, and I expect her popularity to spread to Nassau and Suffolk Counties once the campaign heats up. They will silently agree that their respective husbands are off-limits, although I suspect their staffs will leak some zingers. The campaign may very well come down to issues like who is the least annoying, who has the nicer clothes, and who is more attractive. Pirro wins hands down on all three issues.
Pirro will do well in Staten Island. The rest of the City belongs to Hillary.
The Republicans will fight for upstate New York this time, and win it. Lazio was a nice guy, but he was a weak candidate and took upstate for granted. Hillary spent a tremendous amount of time up there. It paid off for her. I expect she has no intention of doing the Diner circuit again, but those votes were only exceptionally hers.
Pirro will win upstate.
That leaves the suburbs holding the balance.
Jeanine is going to do better than any other Republican would in those suburbs. At the end of the day, in November 2006, she has a shot of ekeing it out.
She has more integrity than Clinton, and that will show.