Posted on 08/09/2005 8:33:27 AM PDT by anotherview
Aug. 9, 2005 1:17 | Updated Aug. 9, 2005 6:20
Analysis: Netanyahu's nightmare
By GIL HOFFMAN
Outgoing Finance Minister Binyamin Netanyahu strode into the Knesset on Monday looking like an enormous weight had been lifted from his shoulders. After months of writing and rewriting his resignation letter in his mind, he could finally look at himself in the mirror with pride, knowing that his crisis of conscience had ended.
If all goes well for Netanyahu, disengagement will cause an enormous rift in the nation, the Gaza Strip will turn into an international hub for terrorism, the public will be outraged, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon will be ousted, and within a matter of months, when he looks into the mirror, a prime minister will wink back at him smugly. He will add disengagement's failure to his list of successful prophesies, along with the terrorism caused by the Oslo Accords and the bombing of the World Trade Center.
But what happens if all goes wrong? Disengagement could pass unexpectedly smoothly. The Palestinian Authority could finally start fighting terrorism. Sharon could have surprising success in post-disengagement meetings with PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas that could result in the advancement of the diplomatic process and an improvement in security.
Netanyahu's successor, Vice Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, could convince the Labor Party to compromise on the 2006 state budget, working together to ease its impact on the poor. Labor chairman Shimon Peres could get reelected and decide to stay in a government that gradually adopts Labor's economic interests in addition to its diplomatic doctrine.
In the unlikely event that all this happens, the government could conceivably last until November 2006, giving Netanyahu an unbearable 15 months sitting alongside Eli Aflalo and Inbal Gavrieli in the uncomfortable seats of the Knesset plenum. And when Netanyahu looks at his reflection, instead of a beaming Bibi, he might see the mirror image of Ehud Barak.
Nothing could be more frightening for him than to find himself in Barak's current position: struggling desperately for attention, attacking his rivals with abandon and praying that his existence will not be forgotten.
Barak called a press conference on Monday morning to react to Netanyahu's resignation - and he was thankful that five preoccupied political reporters reluctantly showed up. In search of a pulpit to preach to the public, Barak recently started crashing Labor faction meetings in the Knesset.
The same Netanyahu who used his gift of gab to explain himself regularly on the radio and his telegenic talents to defend Israel before a hostile foreign press when he was prime minister could find himself hanging out in the Knesset cafeteria in the seat that was Sharon's parking spot before he became prime minister.
Barak's apparent path to fourth in a five-man race for the Labor leadership was the result of his failure to persuade fellow former generals Binyamin Ben-Eliezer and Matan Vilna'i to quit the campaign and support him. Netanyahu has a similar task ahead of him with fellow disengagement opponents Uzi Landau and Moshe Feiglin.
Should three hawks face off against Sharon in the Likud primary, the prime minister could get reelected in the first round and leave Netanyahu desperate for a cabinet seat in the next government. The only way for Netanyahu to guarantee his return to the Prime Minister's Office is to use his persuasiveness to convince Landau and Feiglin to make the Likud primary a two-man race.
Netanyahu failed to sway his fellow Likud ministers to follow him out of the government - both when he threatened to resign in November and when he quit for real on Sunday. The same man who said Sunday that "a leader has to consult his conscience" has to prove that unlike Barak, he is enough of a leader to convince his colleagues to follow him.
And if anyone believes that's going to happen, I gotta great piece of land in Gaza to sell ya.
Unlike the rest, Bibi is able to make an honest living in the real world. He can always go back into business.
He has his flaws but his most salient quality has been an inability to play make-believe and nurse comforting illusions. I'll never forget his '02 speech to Congress.
I don't think it takes a rosy scenario after disengagement (which I don't expect) for the ideological right within Likud to splinter behind multiple candidates or to rally behind Uzi Landau who has led the anti-disengagement faction thus far. Either way Prime Minister Sharon could end up leading Likud into the next election and Bibi could be completely sidelined this time.Would they do that, or would they link up with someone like Effie Eitam, who's come just barely short of advocating "transfer"? What's Federman's role in all this? He's still inelgible to run himself, correct?
I'd figure that under those circumstances Sharon and the rest of Likud end up governing in coalition with Labor and Shinui, with the splinters and Shas joining up in the minority. If anything, that accelerates the road map.
-Eric
Somehow I have a feeling that Netanyahu would find a way to live with the 'disappointment' of that kind of 'disaster'.
"Disengagement could pass unexpectedly smoothly. The Palestinian Authority could finally start fighting terrorism. Sharon could have surprising success in post-disengagement meetings with PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas that could result in the advancement of the diplomatic process and an improvement in security. "
... and pigs will fly, horses will sing & you will get a check from Nigeria.
Speed up the Roadmap? The Roadmap is dead. It never even got started. The Palestinians have not even lived up to the very first step. Forget illusions of a peace process and look at the statements over the last few days by Abbas and Qurei. Anyone who believes in a peace process is dreaming.
Effi Eitam is the leader of Mafdal (National Religious Party). He has nothing whatsoever to do with the Likud primary. None of the people you are thinking about are serious contenders to lead Israel.
I fully agree with both of you. I don't think it requires a rosy scenario for Bibi to end up in political limbo like Barak, though. Netanyahu was a brilliant Finance Minister and a brilliant Foreign Minister. He was a less than brilliant Prime Minister who, like Sharon, was undercut by those to his right. The difference is that Sharon is strong enough and brilliant enought at political maneuvering to survive. Bibi wasn't and isn't.
pinging the pingers
Bibi is a putz. This is too little too late. Natan for PM.
..................
MK Sharansky is not running. The current choices for Likud leadership are Sharon, Netanyahu, possibly Mofaz, Landau, and Feiglin. For Labor leader the top candidates are Peres (at age 82 or 83!), Vilnai'i, Barak, and Ben-Eliezer. Tommy Lapid will undoubtedly remain leader of Shinui, the third largest party.
"But what happens if all goes wrong? Disengagement could pass unexpectedly smoothly. The Palestinian Authority could finally start fighting terrorism. Sharon could have surprising success in post-disengagement meetings with PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas that could result in the advancement of the diplomatic process and an improvement in security."
And pigs might fly out of my arse....
"MK Sharansky is not running. The current choices for Likud leadership are Sharon, Netanyahu, possibly Mofaz, Landau, and Feiglin. For Labor leader the top candidates are Peres (at age 82 or 83!), Vilnai'i, Barak, and Ben-Eliezer. Tommy Lapid will undoubtedly remain leader of Shinui, the third largest party."
What a pathetic list of fools.
Peres belongs in prison for treason, not in the government.
He should have nightmares!
From the net:
Binyamin Netanyahu? It doesn't seem to make much sense that a man who gave away the second holiest city in Israel to Israel's sworn enemies would be able to lend much credence to a rally supporting Israel.
After giving away Hebron, Netanyahu's own mother asked him what his brother Yoni had died for. [Yoni Netanyahu died in the raid on Entebbe in 1976 while rescuing Israeli hostages.] One brother loved the land and died for it; the other didn't seem to care and gave it away.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.