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The Unstoppable IED [GREAT analysis]
The Belmont Club | Wretchard

Posted on 08/11/2005 11:09:43 AM PDT by 68skylark

Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) are more than physical objects, they are symbols of asymmetrical warfare, along with the suicide bomb and the sniper. They are exemplars of 'insoluble' threats against which resistance is supposedly futile and to which surrender is the only viable response. In times past, the submarine and bombing aircraft occupied the same psychological space. In the late 19th century, Alfred Thayer Mahan theorized that sea control, exercised through battlefleets, would be the arbiters of maritime power. But rival theorists believed weaker nations using motor torpedo boats and above all, the submarine, could neutralize battlefleets. The way to checkmate global superpower Britain, so the theory went, was through asymmetrical naval warfare.

In the early days of World War 1, three British armored cruisers HMS Aboukir, HMS Hogue and HMS Cressy were patrolling the North Sea making no attempt to zigzag. The German U-9 fired a single torpedo into the Aboukir which promptly sank. HMS Hogue gallantly raced up to rescue survivors, believing the Aboukir was mined and came right into the U-9's sights. She was sunk in turn. The HMS Cressy, believing both were mined, sped like a clay pigeon in a shooting gallery into another one of the U-9s torpedoes. In under an hour the asymmetrical weapon had killed 1,459 British sailors and sunk three cruisers.

In the 1930s the bomber airplane took the place of the U-boat as the unstoppable weapon in the public's imagination. Fired by the concepts of Italian airpower theorist Giulio Douhet, many interwar policymakers believed that bomber aircraft alone could bring a nation to its knees. The destructive capacity ascribed to the biplane bombers of the day approached that later attributed to nuclear weapons during the Cold War and so terrified politicians that it fueled the policy of appeasement. According to Wikipedia:

The calculations which were performed on the number of dead to the weight of bombs dropped would have a profound effect on the attitudes of the British authorities and population in the interwar years, because as bombers became larger it was fully expected that deaths from aerial bombardment would approach those anticipated in the Cold War from the use of nuclear weapons. The fear of aerial attack on such a scale was one of the fundamental driving forces of British appeasement in the 1930s.

Stanley Baldwin told the House of Commons in words calculated to convey the futility of war that "the bomber will always get through. The only defense is in offense, which means that you have to kill more women and children more quickly than the enemy if you want to save yourselves." From there, as with those who ascribe the same irresistibility to the suicide bomber, it was natural to turn to appeasement. And that was what Baldwin did. Yet in an ironic twist of history, it was not the 'weaker' nations which successfully turned the submarine and the bombing airplane into decisive weapons but their intended victims. The USN presided over the only ultimately triumphant submarine blockade in history against Japan, while the Army Air Corps fielded the Enola Gay over Hiroshima. One possible reason for this reversal of fortunes is that neither the submarine nor the bombing aircraft existed in a state of ultimate perfection, invincible per se. Rather, they were effective relative to the countermeasures that could be deployed against them. They were one thread of an arms race spiral and their advocates found these weapons neutralized and ultimately turned against them by the very nations they sought to destroy.

IEDs have grown from relatively weak and simple devices into sophisticated demolitions weighing several hundred pounds in response to American countermeasures which began with uparmoring vehicles to monitoring patrol routes for disturbances in the roadway. As American countermeasures have improved, so has the IED, but not to the same degree. Brig. Gen. Joseph Votel, head of the Joint Improvised Explosive Device Defeat Task Force said that while the incident rate of IED attacks has gone up, the probability of death per attack has declined from 50% in 2003 to about 18% in early 2005. The Iraqi insurgency may be detonating more IEDs than ever but their yield per attack is not what it used to be. USA Today reported: "While IED attacks have increased, U.S. casualties from them have gone down. From April 2004 to April 2005, task force spokesman Dick Bridges said, the number of casualties from IED attacks had decreased 45%."

To regain effectiveness, the enemy has turned bigger explosives and better triggering devices and aimed them at more lucrative targets. David Cloud of the New York Times describes what this means.

The explosion that killed 14 Marines in Haditha, Iraq, on Wednesday was powerful enough to flip the 25-ton amphibious assault vehicle they were riding in, in keeping with an increasingly deadly trend, American military officers said. ... on July 23 ...  a huge bomb buried on a road southwest of Baghdad Airport detonated an hour before dark underneath a Humvee carrying four American soldiers. The explosive device was constructed from a bomb weighing 500 pounds or more that was meant to be dropped from an aircraft, according to military explosives experts, and was probably Russian in origin. The blast left a crater 6 feet deep and nearly 17 feet wide. All that remained of the armored vehicle afterward was the twisted wreckage of the front end, a photograph taken by American officers at the scene showed. The four soldiers were killed.

In response, USA Today reports the deployment of more (and presumably better) electronic jammers and new directed energy weapons.

The Pentagon now has about 4,200 portable electronic jamming devices in Iraq and more are on the way, Bridges said. The military is about to test a new device at its Yuma, Ariz., proving ground that is capable of exploding bombs by sending an electrical charge through the ground. That device, called a Joint Improvised Explosive Device Neutralizer (JIN), could be deployed to Iraq sometime this year if tests prove successful, Bridges said.

Many bomb jammers work by preventing the triggerman from sending his detonation signal to the explosive device. Other equipment relies on detecting the electronic components of bombs, which echo a signal from a sniffer. The JIN neutralizer, now being test fielded to Iraq is an interesting application of directed energy weaponry. It works by using lasers to create a momentary pathway through which an electrical charge can travel and sending a literal bolt of lightning along the channel. A link to a Fox News video report on the manufacturer's website shows a vehicle equipped with a strange-looking rod detonating hidden charges at varying distances, some out to quite a ways.

Just as the enemy has resorted to bigger bombs to defeat better armor, so too will they seek ways to defeat the new American countermeasures. Yet it seems clear that the IED, like the submarine and bombing airplane before it, is not some mystically invincible device, but simply a weapon like any other caught up in a technological race with countermeasures arrayed against it. One consequence of this development is that while the enemy may employ larger numbers of IEDs against Americans, the number of effective IEDs -- the bigger and better ones -- available to them may actually have declined. The penalty for raising weaponry to a higher standard is making existing stock somewhat obsolete.

Yet a more fundamental problem may be in store for the enemy. By engaging America in a technological arms race of sorts they are playing to its strengths. The relative decline in IED effectivity suggests the enemy, while improving, has not kept up. The move to bigger bombs may temporarily restore his lost combat power, but the advent of new American countermeasures plus increasing pressure on the bombmakers, means he must improve yet again. It is far from clear whether the insurgents can stay in the battle for innovation indefinitely. The logic of asymmetric warfare suggests the enemy will at some point abandon the direct technological weapons race and find a new paradigm of attack entirely. That is essentially what they did when they abandoned the Republican Guard tank formation in favor of the roadside bomb in the first place.

One way to achieve this (and they have been perfecting their skills by attacks against Iraqi civilians) is to switch to other targets. In this way, they can find employment for weapons and skills which are no longer effective against American combat forces. The other is to invent some other surpassingly vicious method of attack; to create the successor to the IED. Whatever that new paradigm turns out to be, it will be probably be regarded as an unanswerable weapon, like the biplane bombers of the 1930s.

TOPICS: Australia/New Zealand; Foreign Affairs; War on Terror
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To: Alberta's Child
This factor explains a number of cases throughout history in which a local fighting force was able to defeat a better-equipped adversary (the American Revolution, Russia's victory over Germany at Stalingrad, America's loss in Vietnam, etc.).

I hate to quibble, but America was not defeated in Vietnam, at least not militarily. United States forces never lost a major engagement to the Communists.

Morever, when South Vietnam did fall, it was not to a "local fighting force" (the Viet Cong were pretty much eliminated as an effective force after the Tet offensive). Instead, it took a full-scale invasion from North Vietnam to defeat the South. That invasion would have failed had the United States supported South Vietnam.

The Vietnam War was lost in the halls of Congress.

41 posted on 08/11/2005 2:31:44 PM PDT by Logophile
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To: ecomcon
They say the exact same thing on DU.

Except over at DU use the f-word multiple times in each post -- it's part of Democratic culture as the "sophisticated" party.

42 posted on 08/11/2005 2:31:48 PM PDT by 68skylark
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To: Logophile
The Vietnam War was lost in the halls of Congress.

Yeah. Either that, or you could say it was lost on the nightly TV network news broadcast. I'm glad those days are behind us.

43 posted on 08/11/2005 2:33:27 PM PDT by 68skylark
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To: 68skylark
Yeah. Either that, or you could say it was lost on the nightly TV network news broadcast. I'm glad those days are behind us.

I am not so sure they are behind us. The Leftists in this country are doing all they can to ensure that Iraq becomes a repeat of Vietnam.

I see no way that U.S. armed forces can lose the shooting war in Iraq. But they could lose the propaganda war here at home.

44 posted on 08/11/2005 2:43:49 PM PDT by Logophile
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To: Logophile
I am not so sure they are behind us.

Yeah, the days of a Walter Cronkite-like figure are long gone (unless you want to count Brit Hume).

I realize the left is a dangerous and wily opponent in struggle for the hearts and minds of Americans. But I don't think there's any doubt they've really lost respect for their best weapon (TV network news).

They'll have to come up with some pretty clever new ideas in order to win the propaganda war this time. And their websites (like DU) aren't doing them any favors either.

45 posted on 08/11/2005 2:48:56 PM PDT by 68skylark
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To: Logophile

The war in Iraq was won with the 2004 Congressional and Presidential elections. It is expected that our standdown in Iraq will begin in 2006. There is nothing to indicate that we are going to suddenly pull troops and abandon Iraq before then. Even if the Democrats somehow take complete control of Congress in the 2006 elections, it will be too late. Iraq will be protected by their own forces by the time the Democrats could theoretically come into power in 2007.

While the media and Democrat politicians may be hurting the effort, they certainly are not defeating it. This is not Vietnam. They don't have enough time to politically destroy Iraq.

46 posted on 08/11/2005 2:56:01 PM PDT by burzum
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To: 68skylark

True, true..

47 posted on 08/11/2005 2:59:52 PM PDT by ecomcon
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To: Extremely Extreme Extremist

lol, but that is hardley the weapon being refered to.

48 posted on 08/11/2005 3:04:20 PM PDT by Unassuaged (I have shocking data relevant to the conversation!)
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To: narby
Our first amendment is our Achilles heal.

As others have pointed, it's not the 1st that's the problem, it's the people using it to undermine the war effort. In some ways, I wonder if we really 'won' the Cold War. In retrospect, the damage has been done in that about 1/3 of the US populace supports socialism to some varying degree.

All any enemy has to do is align themselves with this faction to be perceived as a 'victim' of the West. Imagine if Germany/Japan had utilized this strategy. In fact, it's not hard to imagine that a future foe, such as China, will be sophisticated enough to realize that it should first drum up grievances echoed by the left: imperialism, mercantilism, corporatism, worker exploitation, ad infinitum.

I think this is where Bush and his advisors have failed. He never got the support he needed to push through true war measures that Lincoln, Wilson & FDR enjoyed. I hate to say it, but it may take a Dem president to bring in another 15-20% on the left to finally get the nation to come to grips with what the future holds if we fail in the ME.

49 posted on 08/11/2005 3:10:35 PM PDT by lemura
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To: Blzbba
The crossbow was considered so unethical and immoral that it was outlawed by the Pope in the 1100s (or around that Medieval time period).

It was outlawed because it allowed a common peasant to shoot a projectile that would penetrate knight armor

Somewhat like the hysterics we get today over ammo that would penetrate body armor or threaten armored limos

50 posted on 08/11/2005 3:22:19 PM PDT by SauronOfMordor
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To: ecomcon
They say the exact same thing on DU. It's odd. Don't get me wrong, they're totally upside down, but they say the exact same thing.

I sure they do,I knew that when I wrote it...but who argument holds up under cold logic, the left or ours, the left is famous from claiming to stake out the moral high ground and instantly retreating to biggest of lies and emotional propaganda when logically challenged

I don't claim we are pure virgin in this respect but I believe one of the core difference between the left and right or liberal, conservative today is the left will never acknowledge the blood on their hands caused by there action..there peace at any price has no consequences that they will accept responsibility for...I will accept that my actions may put the blood of some on my hands because my inaction may put the blood of many, many more on my hands.. I accept the need to make the best of hard crappy choices the world some times leaves you with...(Hell yes war is bad but there thing far worse that war)

The left thinks that there being alway"For Peace!"(at any price) leaved them clean and pure ever went there action leave them swimming in blood of innocents... therefor to lie and cheat "For Peace!" is justify

51 posted on 08/11/2005 4:09:25 PM PDT by tophat9000 (When the State ASSUMES death...It makes an ASH out of you and me..)
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To: konaice; 68skylark; Andrewksu; Terabitten
The "man-made lightning" of the Ionatron is just a Wright Brothers version of the weapon likely to be developed

I've seen the Ionatron, I know the Ionatron, the Ionatron is a friend of mine -- The Inoatron isn't at the Wright Bros. level just yet - more like those old clips of guys jumping off barns with wings strapped to their arms. But, this catepillar just may turn into a butterfly someday. Of course, it might also be a complete bust and the NY Times will do some expose about the waste of the taxpayer dollar. In my book, if this weird contraption manages to save just one of the "Old Gray Bonnets" of the 121st Infantry Regiment then the effort will have been more than worth it.

52 posted on 08/11/2005 6:15:17 PM PDT by centurion316 (Never apologize, its a sign of weakness)
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