Skip to comments.Tropical Depression Twelve
Posted on 08/23/2005 11:43:35 AM PDT by nwctwx
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 235 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005
...TWELFTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORMING WITHIN THE DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THE CENTER OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF LONG ISLAND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND SURFACE WINDS ARE AROUND 35 MPH. ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED ON THIS SYSTEM AT 5 PM EDT.
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
Which is TD 10 reincarnated.
Is this the one those of us in S. Florida should be looking at?
TD 10 was absorbed by the new system, but it is the same general cloud mass.
i see another disturbance way out in the atlantic. looks like it may be developing into something. any word on that yet?
It's current position would make U.S. landfall chances quite high. With a ridge building to the north, it should threaten FL... then likely move into the Gulf of Mexico.
They think it will develop but recurve up into the Atlantic and not affect the US.
Floater #1 is now on the system, moved from Jose... which got no real press. ;-)
Great.....as long as it holds off for 10 more days, hubby is leaving for Texas this Thursday for a week to visit his ailing mother.
Guess I should get him to give me a crash course in putting up our hurricane shutters.
I noticed Hurricane Hilary (pacific) turned into a non-event.........
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
218 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005
VALID 12Z FRI AUG 26 2005 - 12Z TUE AUG 30 2005
FINAL MEDIUM RANGE DISCUSSION...
TO THE SOUTH OF THESE HIGHER LAT ANOMALIES...MID LEVEL HTS ARE
FCST TO BE NEAR NORMAL IN A FLAT RIDGE ACRS THE SRN TIER OF THE
NATION. THE STRENGTH OF THIS RIDGE AND THE DEGREE OF WEAKENESS IN
IT WL BE CRUCIAL FOR THE TRACK OF THE AREA OF TROPICAL WEATHER
INVOF THE BAHAMAS THAT MAY AFFECT FL AND THE NERN AND NCNTRL GULF
THIS PERIOD. THE MAJORITY OF THE MED RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATE THIS
LOW MOVG ACRS THE SRN PORTION OF THE FL PENINSULA AND INTO THE ERN
GULF BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS IT CONTS ON THE S SIDE OF THE WEAK UPR
RIDGE. THE GFS CONTS TO BE ON THE RT HAND SIDE OF THE MODEL SOLNS
IN SHOWING A TRACK ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FL FRI-SUN AND THEN
ALONG THE SERN COAST MON-TUE. THE ONE THING ALL THE MODELS DO
AGREE ON IS THAT THERE WL BE EVENTUAL WEAKENESS IN THIS UPR RIDGE
FROM THE STREAM OF STRONG SYSTEMS PUSHING IN THE NRN STREAM ALONG
THE U.S./CAN BORDER. THIS WOULD THEN SUPPORT A MORE NWD COMPONENT
TO THE TRACK AND POSSIBLE EFFECTS FOR THE ERN GULF COAST. THE
LATEST MED RANGE PROGS ARE FOLLOWING THE TPC PREFERRED AND MODEL
CONSENSUS SOLN...ALBEIT SLOWER...IN PUSHING ACRS SCNTRL FL
FRI-SAT (DAYS 3-4)..INTO THE ERN GULF BY SUN (DAY 5). AT THIS
POINT THE ADVERTISED WEAKNESS IN THE E-W RIDGE ALONG THE GULF
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MORE NWD COMPONENT TO THE TRACK...WITH A
THREAT FOR THE CNTRL TO ERN GULF COASTAL AREA BY THE BEGINNNING OF
NEXT WEEK. SEE LATEST TPC DISCUSSIONS FOR LATEST UPDATES ON THIS
Would it be a minimal hurricane by the time it gets to Florida?
Doesn't seem likely to me since it's not even a tropical storm yet, and it's got to go over land to get here.
Is it really the remnants of TD 10? last night's report said that would arrive in Fla on Thurs or Fri. Is this the same thing or the next wave?
Things are getting busy out there...and near here... Tropical Storm Jose popped up and landed in Mexico in the blink of an eye during the wee hours this morning. Now we have TD 12, and another system out in the Atlantic looking on the healthy side.
Yeah poor old Jose sure didn't get to live very long and was hardly even noticed.
It's still 2-4 days out based on present and suspected movement... quite slow moving. The storm will be over water most of that time, the islands are rather small and won't disrupt any gathering circulation very much. I think the biggest problems with this possible storm would come for someone in the Gulf of Mexico, but it's too early to figure out where the ridge weakness will line up.
I'm scheduled to fly out to the midwest tomorrow afternoon until Friday night.
Start a pool on which area will be hit Labor Day Weekend?
I say outer banks N.C....
Any baby sightings yet?
No! And, yes, we're ALL cranky........LOL.
Is she overdue?
It ATE another tropical depression?
No, due Friday, but having BIG TIME contractions since the middle of July; she's never gone this long before; usually 3 weeks early.
The doctor said it won't be long; she's so far down, there's nowhere left for her to go.......LOL.
lol--makes my bladder hurt just thinking about it.
Oh poo! They just keep coming, at least they weren't all aimed at us!!
heh--seems like we've had a long break from the action, from a relative standpoint.
We're DOOOOOMEEDDD! Thanks for the updates!
Yeah, I've really been savoring this lull, was hoping it'd extend for awhile, guess that idea was too good to be true, here we are at the end of August, peak of the season.
Women & minorities, etc, etc...
BITE YOUR TONGUE..............
Tropical Depression Twelve Forecast/Advisory Number 1
Statement as of 21:00Z on August 23, 2005
at 5 PM EDT...2100z...the government of the Bahamas has issued a
tropical warning Storm Warning for the central and northwestern
A tropical storm or Hurricane Watch may be required for portions of
southern Florida later tonight.
Tropical depression center located near 23.2n 75.5w at 23/2100z
position accurate within 30 nm
present movement toward the northwest or 310 degrees at 7 kt
estimated minimum central pressure 1007 mb
Max sustained winds 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.
Repeat...center located near 23.2n 75.5w at 23/2100z
at 23/1800z center was located near 23.0n 75.2w
forecast valid 24/0600z 24.0n 76.5w
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt... 60ne 60se 50sw 0nw.
Forecast valid 24/1800z 25.0n 77.7w
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt... 60ne 60se 60sw 30nw.
Forecast valid 25/0600z 25.7n 78.5w
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt... 60ne 60se 60sw 60nw.
Forecast valid 25/1800z 26.0n 79.4w
Max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.
50 kt... 35ne 25se 25sw 35nw.
34 kt... 70ne 60se 60sw 70nw.
Forecast valid 26/1800z 26.3n 81.0w...inland
Max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.
50 kt... 25ne 20se 20sw 20nw.
34 kt... 70ne 60se 60sw 60nw.
Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day
outlook valid 27/1800z 26.5n 83.5w
Max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.
Outlook valid 28/1800z 27.5n 86.0w
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.
Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 23.2n 75.5w
next advisory at 24/0300z
Yes, South Florida should watch: winds and rain likely. Nothing more. Will be contacting family down there soon.
A product, no doubt, of the anti-Hispanic bias of the Bush administration.
Hmmmm I see Cedar Key is at the very top of that circle.
But if the Outerbanks gets it - most likely so will I - and large sections of MARYLAND as well!!!!!!!!!!
Weatherman in Austin said Texas could be dealing with something tropical by Sunday.
Is Cedar Key where the bar is with all the dollar bills on the wall?
What we could use is a break from this heat! A few days of stormy skies wouldn't bother me right now.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005
CORRECTED WARNING SECTION
...TWELFTH DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER THE BAHAMAS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED...
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. THIS
INCLUDES CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...
SAN SALVADOR...NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... THE ABACOS... ANDROS ISLAND
...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...
AND NEW PROVIDENCE.
A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.5 WEST OR ABOUT
175 MILES... 280 KM... SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH
...13 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS INDICATED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY WEDNESDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG THE
NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS.
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...23.2 N... 75.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.
WTNT42 KNHC 232108
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...ALONG
WITH OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BAHAMAS AND NEARBY SHIPS...INDICATE THE
BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS HAS BECOME
ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO BE CLASSIFIED AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED RECON WINDS OF 39 KT AT 800
FT...AND SHIP A8CI9 REPORTING 30-KT SUSTAINED WINDS AT 18Z IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WEAK...BUT IMPROVING AS
A SMALL ANTICYCLONE HAS BEEN DEVELOPING ABOVE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 310/07. THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER HAS BEEN REFORMING WITHIN A LARGE CLEAR AREA NOTED IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...FLIGHT-LEVEL RECON WINDS CLEARLY
INDICATE A BROAD BUT OTHERWISE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD.
THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL SMALL VORTICES DEVELOP WITHIN THE
CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND THEN ROTATE WESTWARD OUT
FROM UNDER THE CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ROUGHLY THE
GEOMETRIC CENTER OF ALL THE SMALL SWIRLS...BUT SOME RE-ORGANIZATION
OF THE CENTER WITHIN THE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. TD-12 IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS WEAKNESS SHOWS UP BEST IN 500 MB
DATA...AND THEN DISAPPEARS BELOW AND ABOVE THAT LEVEL. BY 36-48
HOURS...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL MODEL FORECAST THE
WEAKNESS TO FILL AND BE REPLACED BY A BROAD EAST-WEST ORIENTED
RIDGE. THIS SHOULD HELP TO DRIVE THE CYCLONE MORE WESTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA IN 60-72 HOURS...AND THEN INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO BY 96 HOURS. THIS SCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH THE NHC MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE DEVELOPING SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACTLY WHEN A WELL-DEFINED CENTER WILL DEVELOP AND HOW SOON
CONVECTION WRAPS AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONGLY DIFLUENT FROM THE
NORTH FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AND THEN BECOME NORTHEASTERLY TO
EASTERLY AFTER THAT. SINCE THE SHEAR IS ALSO FORECAST TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW AT AROUND 10 KT AND SSTS WILL BE NEAR 31C UNDER THE
CENTER...AT LEAST STEADY INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO BE IN ORDER. IF
CENTRAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN THIS
SYSTEM COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL.
THE NWS RULES GOVERNING THE NAMING OF TROPICAL CYCLONES SPECIFY
THAT...WITHIN A BASIN...WHEN A CYCLONE FORMS FROM THE REMNANT OF A
PREVIOUSLY EXISTING CYCLONE...THE OLD NAME/NUMBER IS RETAINED.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE HAS A COMPLEX GENESIS THAT LIKELY
INCLUDES A MID-LEVEL REMNANT OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN. A
REVIEW OF SATELLITE AND RAWINSONDE DATA OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO
SUGGESTS THAT A SECOND DISTURBANCE APPROACHED AND COMBINED WITH THE
MID-LEVEL REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ON 20 AUGUST. BECAUSE
IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE WHICH OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH TODAY'S GENESIS...WE HAVE ELECTED TO USE THE
DESIGNATION TWELVE RATHER THAN TEN FOR THE NEW DEPRESSION. THIS
SITUATION DIFFERS FROM LAST YEAR'S REGENERATION OF IVAN...IN WHICH
THE LOW-LEVEL REMNANT OF THAT SYSTEM REMAINED A DISTINCT FEATURE
THAT COULD BE FOLLOWED CONTINUOUSLY UNTIL IT REGENERATED.
Dr. Steve Lyons on TWC predicted a hurricane in the eastern Gulf of Mexico by the weekend...stay tuned.
did you see the discussion on NOAA?
That was an interesting way they decided to go wtih TD 12 vice TD 10.....
If it can get into and across the GulfMEX, this could be a very interesting storm...
They're showing it to cut due west over southern Florida on Thurs or Fri.
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