Skip to comments.Oil Expert Predicts Apocalypse, But Few are Listening
Posted on 08/24/2005 6:06:17 AM PDT by minerboy
hink high gas prices are bad?
Get a load of what ex-oilman and ex-Princeton professor Kenneth Deffeyes believes are following closely behind:
"War, famine, pestilence and death," he said. "We've got to get the warning out."
The threat? Peak oil.
The term refers to the time when the worldwide production of oil peaks and begins a rapid decline. From then on, this incredibly efficient fuel source, which still costs less than most bottled water, will be ever more scarce and ever more costly.
Highly respected sources, including the U.S. government, think that day is distant, and most mainstream economists think it won't cause much of a ruckus.
But Deffeyes thinks peak oil is coming in November, and could bring humankind to the brink.
"It's been like pulling teeth to get public awareness," he said.
So who is this well-credentialed Chicken Little?
Deffeyes grew up next to gushing oil wells. He is a former petroleum geologist himself, having worked for Shell Oil for six years after earning a doctorate from Princeton.
He is a devotee of former Shell geologist M. King Hubbert, who correctly predicted U.S. oil production would peak in the early 1970s. Deffeyes is also the author of "Hubbert's Peak" and "Beyond Oil: The View From Hubbert's Peak," which was published last spring.
He is among a cadre of peak-oil proponents who sketch out a frightening near-term future in which the American way of life is upended as the United States, China and great nations scramble after oil fields like desperate players in a game of musical chairs.
(Excerpt) Read more at statesman.com ...
Well, heck, that means the whole global warming thing is moot, right?
that's looking at the bright side! good for you
Good thing I still have all my Y2K supplies!
So we won't need to drill off California after all, right? I bet the view from the 405 will be better with no cars.
I saw this doomsday hysteria on the front page of one of those ridiculous 'rags' at the supermarket.
I think it was the same paper that showed a picture a few months ago of cats living on Venus. LoL
Right now, there is a global boom in drilling rig manufacturing and oil companies ready to lease them as they are added to the global fleet.
The more wells drilled, the more production. Until we reach the top of the bell curve, then new drilling declines as commodity prices fall and drilling rigs get stacked.
He is way to early in predicting the peak..but it is closer than those who think it's 40 or 50 yrs away.
We have time to build nuke power plants and switch to electric/hybrids..
The world will not go into madness over oil.
PEAK OIL is a MYTH!
Oil does not come from dead dinosaurs - but it is being made all the time 100's of miles below the surface.
Its illegal to yell fire in a theater. I don't see much difference here with the doomsayers
Is this before or after we run out of coal. Oh, I forgot that's an old prediction everyone was convinced was accurate about 60 years ago.
Almost ironic isn't it? Bin Ladin starts this whole thing thinking he'll rule the world, and what he will turn out to be is the man who forced the western world to finally fund the search for alternative energy.
SA will be sitting on a pool of worthless sticky black stuff, same with Iran, Venezuela and a lot of other third world countries.
One of the reasons AE has not been pursued is that oil was so darned cheap it wasn't worth pursuing. At $4.00 to $5.00 a gallon, it'll be well worthwhile to spend the money to find another source.
Putin is UP to something, he has traveled the globe making nice nice with the oil merchants, and is to host the next G-8 Summit and he said it would be about energy.
Pulling old Saddam's tail feathers did not sit well with Putin.
He'd be more convincing if he didn't start trying to predict the world's reaction.
So let me understand--are you saying that they don't have cats on Venus? If so, then my dog and I don't want to go.
I think "peak oil" is kind of a slogan that maybe fine tunes the argument too much.
It can really be summed up this way: The world's population and economy are growing at a breakneck pace, and so is it's thirst for oil, but oil is an exhaustible commodity, and the low cost reserves have pretty much been exhausted.
It's simple supply and demand. Obviously, there will be a crunch.
There's only about 1.2 trillion barrels of shale oil in the American west (Wyoming, Utah, Colorado) As long as oil stays above $50/barrel, from what I understand, it is economically viable to extract and bring to market.
At least we won't have to see such an eyesore like an oil rig 500 miles off our coastlines, or wind farms, or nuclear plants. Also, think of all the animal species that will survive. This is the ultimate goal of the hate America lefties.
The end is coming, the end is coming. - That's what he's screaming. Ok, back away from the hysterics for a moment.
Just what exactly am I supposed to do about this?
I always wonder why nobody points out that U.S. oil production slumped after the Democrat controlled Senate and Congress voted out the old Oil Depletion Allowance.
The most cogent comment in the whole article. Energy (oil) became more expensive in the 70's. We adjusted. Energy is (obviously) becoming more expensive now. We'll adjust. Thermal depolymerization, tar sands, improved drilling and extraction, etc. all await. To say nothing of the simple fact that as the price per barrel makes more "estimated" reserves "proven" reserves.
"Oil does not come from dead dinosaurs - but it is being made all the time 100's of miles below the surface. "
You know, I've heard and read that more than once. I've heard that "experts" were shocked when expended fields began to produce again. The "experts" were also confused by fields that continued to produce well beyond estimates.
The whole idea of oil from dead dinosaurs... well, I'm not a scientist, but sure seems like it would take a LOT of dinosaurs to produce all that oil. I mean a huge number.
I also notice that no one throws around the tag fossil fuel much anymore.
Scare tactics; a favorite means of pushing a book.
No Way. Dead dinosaurs from the flood 4000 years ago.
Not a problem, every American driver can just be assigned their very own illegal immigrant to power their auto the biped way - Fred Flintstone style!
The free market is always right. If we really are running out of oil, it would be worth $650, not $65. It is priced high enough to encourage people to look for other sources. People will, and society will move on.
Sorry, but diesel is far more practical that gas/electric hybrids....
I am amazed that people are latching onto this dead end.
They've been making 50+ MPG diesel cars since the early/mid 90s..
Gas/electric is overpriced, overcomplicated, and a waste of resources for a passenger vehicle.
Diesel/Electric hybrids make sense for things like LOCOMOTIVES, BUSSES, SEMIS and other large heavy equipment.. but are wasteful in the passenger market.
Is this before or after we all starve to death because we can't feed the world's population?
A choice between "highly respected sources" like a Princeton professor and the U.S. Government.
I can't believe either.
LOL.... this reads like these oil fields are underground storage tanks or something. The only place they find oil and gas is in sand that is surrounded by shale or whatever to trap the oil and gas. It would be crazy to argue that we can't pump it out and aren't useing it faster than it is "replenished" if that's what you really want to believe is happening.
I've been in the oil and gas industry since 1980. I don't know of a single time that a well was depleted and a few years later oil showed up in the same zone.... mysteriously... like it was being replenished. The only way we'll keep up with demand is by find oil in new zones. And that becomes more expensive all of the time as it generally requires deeper and deeper drilling, in new wells and existing wells.
The problem I've heard is that no one wants to make the capital investment on shale oil / tar sands / coal liquification because there is serious speculation that oil wil drop below $35/barrel which is the minimum price for production to be profitable. Right now, the Saudi's are produceing oil at $4-5 per barrel. There is a lot of difference between those two costs and no one wants to lose a bundle if prices drop. It is still possible to have $30/barrel oil and still be profitable. Only when the middle east production costs are above $35/barrel will investors put money into alternative oil sources. And that is assuming government environmental regulations will permit exploiting these resources.
I don't think its being created quickly enough. We are pumping out oil at an unsustainable rate.
It's too bad humans never learned to get energy from nuclear fission.
I'm not sure I believe the $4 or $5 price on Saudi oil cost..... but maybe. Bottom line is that eventually oil will be more difficult to find there... they will have to drill deeper etc. They'll have more dry holes. And their cost (whatever it is) will go up. I don't know when that happens.... I don't think anyone really knows when.
Everytime I hear the word "diesel" I envision one of those volvos spewing black smoke, the rear window covered with soot.
Enjoy yourself, waste your fair share, have a good time. kill a tree, step on bugs, etc. The end of the world is comming in November, so book your holidays early.
--there are many better options than oil shale---
Probably because it's B.S.
LOL.... You shouldn't believe everything you read on the internet. There is no mystery to refilling oil fields. Oil and Gas exist in underground sand where once there was a river or lake or something. When the well is drilled it finds the sand.... and then the pirosity of the sand determines how fast oil or gas can move from distant parts of the sand bar, to the well, which is esscentially a hole in a pressured area. Eventually enough oil and gas is removed so that there is less pressure in the sand bar (pressure caused by chemical nature of gas). As the pressure is reduced the oil or gas doesn't have the ability to flow through the sand grains at a very high rate... and not enough pressure to flow up 10,000 or whatever feet of casing. So they'll throw a pump down in the bottom and run it to pump the oil up the casing because there isn't enough pressure downhole to force it out.
That's how reserves work. And to maintain this pressure to begin with... the sand bar has to be surrounded by shale or stone capapable of holding the pressure.
I very much doubt that the "peak" day will arrive in November or even in the next 10 or 20 years, but most Freepers who opine on this topic don't seem to give a damn when it comes. The attitude seems to be "I'll guzzle as much gas as possible, and to hell with anyone who advocates conservation." Say it comes in 40 years; that's as close to now as 1965, and for some of us 1965 doesn't seem all that long ago.
I recently read an article saying 50 was break-even. Is that 100 that you quoted recent or twenty years ago? Not challenging you, I'm just interested in hearing more, as it is a subject I don't have a deep knowledge of. Thanks.
I hope if there are foodstuffs, you have been rotating your stocks!
I still have duct tape and plastic sheets.
This guy must be a real big time loony. ward churchill is a real loony and he is still, "practicing".
What do you think about what Nathan Zachary says in reply 36?
I am curious, I have heard off and on over the years that there is some regenerative source for oil and gas.
And it has always seemed impossible to me that oil should come from coral reefs; as it is depicted in the museum in Midland.
I'm not an economist so could someone please help me with this question. When oil prices rise, as they are now, who's making the money, the oil producing/exporting countries?