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Oil Expert Predicts Apocalypse, But Few are Listening
Newhouse News Service ^ | August 20, 2005 | Alexander Lane

Posted on 08/24/2005 6:06:17 AM PDT by minerboy

hink high gas prices are bad?

Get a load of what ex-oilman and ex-Princeton professor Kenneth Deffeyes believes are following closely behind:

"War, famine, pestilence and death," he said. "We've got to get the warning out."

The threat? Peak oil.

The term refers to the time when the worldwide production of oil peaks and begins a rapid decline. From then on, this incredibly efficient fuel source, which still costs less than most bottled water, will be ever more scarce and ever more costly.

Highly respected sources, including the U.S. government, think that day is distant, and most mainstream economists think it won't cause much of a ruckus.

But Deffeyes thinks peak oil is coming in November, and could bring humankind to the brink.

"It's been like pulling teeth to get public awareness," he said.

So who is this well-credentialed Chicken Little?

Deffeyes grew up next to gushing oil wells. He is a former petroleum geologist himself, having worked for Shell Oil for six years after earning a doctorate from Princeton.

He is a devotee of former Shell geologist M. King Hubbert, who correctly predicted U.S. oil production would peak in the early 1970s. Deffeyes is also the author of "Hubbert's Peak" and "Beyond Oil: The View From Hubbert's Peak," which was published last spring.

He is among a cadre of peak-oil proponents who sketch out a frightening near-term future in which the American way of life is upended as the United States, China and great nations scramble after oil fields like desperate players in a game of musical chairs.

(Excerpt) Read more at statesman.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy
KEYWORDS: doomsdayagain; energy; oil
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1 posted on 08/24/2005 6:06:18 AM PDT by minerboy
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To: minerboy

Well, heck, that means the whole global warming thing is moot, right?


2 posted on 08/24/2005 6:08:21 AM PDT by SlowBoat407 (A living affront to Islam since 1959)
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To: SlowBoat407

that's looking at the bright side! good for you


3 posted on 08/24/2005 6:09:57 AM PDT by babble-on
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To: SlowBoat407

Good thing I still have all my Y2K supplies!


4 posted on 08/24/2005 6:11:21 AM PDT by meowmeow (Meow! Meow!)
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To: minerboy

So we won't need to drill off California after all, right? I bet the view from the 405 will be better with no cars.


5 posted on 08/24/2005 6:13:23 AM PDT by neodad (I wish to have no connection with any ship that does not sail fast, for I intend to go in harm's way)
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To: minerboy

I saw this doomsday hysteria on the front page of one of those ridiculous 'rags' at the supermarket.
I think it was the same paper that showed a picture a few months ago of cats living on Venus. LoL


6 posted on 08/24/2005 6:13:55 AM PDT by nuconvert (No More Axis of Evil by Christmas ! TLR) [there's a lot of bad people in the pistachio business])
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To: minerboy
The oil industry is a circular industry.

Right now, there is a global boom in drilling rig manufacturing and oil companies ready to lease them as they are added to the global fleet.

The more wells drilled, the more production. Until we reach the top of the bell curve, then new drilling declines as commodity prices fall and drilling rigs get stacked.

7 posted on 08/24/2005 6:15:17 AM PDT by TexasCajun
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To: minerboy

He is way to early in predicting the peak..but it is closer than those who think it's 40 or 50 yrs away.

We have time to build nuke power plants and switch to electric/hybrids..

The world will not go into madness over oil.


8 posted on 08/24/2005 6:15:39 AM PDT by ConsentofGoverned (A sucker is born every minute..what are the voters?)
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To: minerboy

PEAK OIL is a MYTH!

http://www.the7thfire.com/Politics%20and%20History/peak_oil/peak_oil_is_a_known_fraud.htm

Oil does not come from dead dinosaurs - but it is being made all the time 100's of miles below the surface.

Its illegal to yell fire in a theater. I don't see much difference here with the doomsayers


9 posted on 08/24/2005 6:17:38 AM PDT by spanalot
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To: minerboy

Is this before or after we run out of coal. Oh, I forgot that's an old prediction everyone was convinced was accurate about 60 years ago.


10 posted on 08/24/2005 6:18:07 AM PDT by Casloy
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To: minerboy
I don't think it matters because we will have found an alternative source by then. If the price stays high, or gets higher, that will just escalate the search for another fuel.

Almost ironic isn't it? Bin Ladin starts this whole thing thinking he'll rule the world, and what he will turn out to be is the man who forced the western world to finally fund the search for alternative energy.

SA will be sitting on a pool of worthless sticky black stuff, same with Iran, Venezuela and a lot of other third world countries.

One of the reasons AE has not been pursued is that oil was so darned cheap it wasn't worth pursuing. At $4.00 to $5.00 a gallon, it'll be well worthwhile to spend the money to find another source.

11 posted on 08/24/2005 6:18:50 AM PDT by McGavin999 ("You must call evil by it's name" GW Bush ......... It's name is Terror)
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To: minerboy

Putin is UP to something, he has traveled the globe making nice nice with the oil merchants, and is to host the next G-8 Summit and he said it would be about energy.

Pulling old Saddam's tail feathers did not sit well with Putin.


12 posted on 08/24/2005 6:19:56 AM PDT by Just mythoughts
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To: minerboy

He'd be more convincing if he didn't start trying to predict the world's reaction.


13 posted on 08/24/2005 6:20:12 AM PDT by bkepley
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To: nuconvert
I think it was the same paper that showed a picture a few months ago of cats living on Venus. LoL

So let me understand--are you saying that they don't have cats on Venus? If so, then my dog and I don't want to go.

14 posted on 08/24/2005 6:20:44 AM PDT by Fairview
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To: minerboy

I think "peak oil" is kind of a slogan that maybe fine tunes the argument too much.

It can really be summed up this way: The world's population and economy are growing at a breakneck pace, and so is it's thirst for oil, but oil is an exhaustible commodity, and the low cost reserves have pretty much been exhausted.

It's simple supply and demand. Obviously, there will be a crunch.


15 posted on 08/24/2005 6:22:28 AM PDT by Brilliant
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To: minerboy

There's only about 1.2 trillion barrels of shale oil in the American west (Wyoming, Utah, Colorado) As long as oil stays above $50/barrel, from what I understand, it is economically viable to extract and bring to market.

No worries.


16 posted on 08/24/2005 6:22:35 AM PDT by Rammer
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To: minerboy

At least we won't have to see such an eyesore like an oil rig 500 miles off our coastlines, or wind farms, or nuclear plants. Also, think of all the animal species that will survive. This is the ultimate goal of the hate America lefties.


17 posted on 08/24/2005 6:25:59 AM PDT by Ron in Acreage (It's the borders stupid! "ALLEN IN 08")
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To: minerboy

The end is coming, the end is coming. - That's what he's screaming. Ok, back away from the hysterics for a moment.

Just what exactly am I supposed to do about this?


18 posted on 08/24/2005 6:26:47 AM PDT by brownsfan (It's not a war on terror... it's a war with islam.)
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To: minerboy
He is a devotee of former Shell geologist M. King Hubbert, who correctly predicted U.S. oil production would peak in the early 1970s.

I always wonder why nobody points out that U.S. oil production slumped after the Democrat controlled Senate and Congress voted out the old Oil Depletion Allowance.

19 posted on 08/24/2005 6:28:42 AM PDT by metesky (This land was your land, this land is MY land; I bought the rights from a town selectman!)
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To: nuconvert
Economists, in particular, believe the supply and demand equation will spur innovation and conservation, and the problem will take care of itself.

The most cogent comment in the whole article. Energy (oil) became more expensive in the 70's. We adjusted. Energy is (obviously) becoming more expensive now. We'll adjust. Thermal depolymerization, tar sands, improved drilling and extraction, etc. all await. To say nothing of the simple fact that as the price per barrel makes more "estimated" reserves "proven" reserves.

20 posted on 08/24/2005 6:30:04 AM PDT by L,TOWM (Liberals, The Other White Meat [Quicquid peius optimo nefas])
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To: spanalot

"Oil does not come from dead dinosaurs - but it is being made all the time 100's of miles below the surface. "

You know, I've heard and read that more than once. I've heard that "experts" were shocked when expended fields began to produce again. The "experts" were also confused by fields that continued to produce well beyond estimates.

The whole idea of oil from dead dinosaurs... well, I'm not a scientist, but sure seems like it would take a LOT of dinosaurs to produce all that oil. I mean a huge number.

I also notice that no one throws around the tag fossil fuel much anymore.


21 posted on 08/24/2005 6:30:36 AM PDT by brownsfan (It's not a war on terror... it's a war with islam.)
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To: minerboy
Deffeyes is also the author of "Hubbert's Peak" and "Beyond Oil: The View From Hubbert's Peak," which was published last spring.

Scare tactics; a favorite means of pushing a book.

22 posted on 08/24/2005 6:31:24 AM PDT by 6SJ7
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To: spanalot
Oil does not come from dead dinosaurs - but it is being made all the time 100's of miles below the surface.

No Way. Dead dinosaurs from the flood 4000 years ago.

23 posted on 08/24/2005 6:31:47 AM PDT by biblewonk (A house of cards built on Matt 16:18)
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To: minerboy

Not a problem, every American driver can just be assigned their very own illegal immigrant to power their auto the biped way - Fred Flintstone style!


24 posted on 08/24/2005 6:32:51 AM PDT by anonsquared
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To: spanalot

PEAK OIL is a MYTH!

http://www.the7thfire.com/Politics%20and%20History/peak_oil/peak_oil_is_a_known_fraud.htm




On September 26, 1995, the New York Times ran an article headlined "Geochemist Says Oil Fields May Be Refilled Naturally." Penned by Malcolm W. Browne, the piece appeared on page C1.

Could it be that many of the world's oil fields are refilling themselves at nearly the same rate they are being drained by an energy hungry world? A geochemist at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts ... Dr. Jean K. Whelan ... infers that oil is moving in quite rapid spurts from great depths to reservoirs closer to the surface. Skeptics of Dr. Whelan's hypothesis ... say her explanation remains to be proved ...
Discovered in 1972, an oil reservoir some 6,000 feet beneath Eugene Island 330 [not actually an island, but a patch of sea floor in the Gulf of Mexico] is one of the world's most productive oil sources ... Eugene Island 330 is remarkable for another reason: it's estimated reserves have declined much less than experts had predicted on the basis of its production rate.

"It could be," Dr. Whelan said, "that at some sites, particularly where there is a lot of faulting in the rock, a reservoir from which oil is being pumped might be a steady-state system -- one that is replenished by deeper reserves as fast as oil is pumped out" ...

The discovery that oil seepage is continuous and extensive from many ocean vents lying above fault zones has convinced many scientists that oil is making its way up through the faults from much deeper deposits ...
A recent report from the Department of Energy Task Force on Strategic Energy Research and Development concluded from the Woods Hole project that "there new data and interpretations strongly suggest that the oil and gas in the Eugene Island field could be treated as a steady-state rather than a fixed resource."
The report added, "Preliminary analysis also suggest that similar phenomena may be taking place in other producing areas, including the deep-water Gulf of Mexico and the Alaskan North Slope" ...There is much evidence that deep reserves of hydrocarbon fuels replenish the shallow oil fields."


25 posted on 08/24/2005 6:34:32 AM PDT by spanalot
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To: Rammer

Exactly,

The free market is always right. If we really are running out of oil, it would be worth $650, not $65. It is priced high enough to encourage people to look for other sources. People will, and society will move on.


26 posted on 08/24/2005 6:37:09 AM PDT by IL Republican
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To: biblewonk
"No Way. Dead dinosaurs from the flood 4000 years ago."


NO the dinos were around long long before man was formed in the flesh. Genesis 1:2 before the creation of this earth age was their demise and NO time is given as to the when of it.
27 posted on 08/24/2005 6:37:14 AM PDT by Just mythoughts
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To: ConsentofGoverned

Sorry, but diesel is far more practical that gas/electric hybrids....

I am amazed that people are latching onto this dead end.

They've been making 50+ MPG diesel cars since the early/mid 90s..

Gas/electric is overpriced, overcomplicated, and a waste of resources for a passenger vehicle.

Diesel/Electric hybrids make sense for things like LOCOMOTIVES, BUSSES, SEMIS and other large heavy equipment.. but are wasteful in the passenger market.


28 posted on 08/24/2005 6:38:07 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: minerboy

Is this before or after we all starve to death because we can't feed the world's population?


29 posted on 08/24/2005 6:40:25 AM PDT by pissant
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To: minerboy

A choice between "highly respected sources" like a Princeton professor and the U.S. Government.

I can't believe either.


30 posted on 08/24/2005 6:41:45 AM PDT by the gillman@blacklagoon.com (Google CFR North American Community)
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To: spanalot
There is much evidence that deep reserves of hydrocarbon fuels replenish the shallow oil fields."

LOL.... this reads like these oil fields are underground storage tanks or something. The only place they find oil and gas is in sand that is surrounded by shale or whatever to trap the oil and gas. It would be crazy to argue that we can't pump it out and aren't useing it faster than it is "replenished" if that's what you really want to believe is happening.

I've been in the oil and gas industry since 1980. I don't know of a single time that a well was depleted and a few years later oil showed up in the same zone.... mysteriously... like it was being replenished. The only way we'll keep up with demand is by find oil in new zones. And that becomes more expensive all of the time as it generally requires deeper and deeper drilling, in new wells and existing wells.

31 posted on 08/24/2005 6:42:42 AM PDT by kjam22
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To: Rammer

The problem I've heard is that no one wants to make the capital investment on shale oil / tar sands / coal liquification because there is serious speculation that oil wil drop below $35/barrel which is the minimum price for production to be profitable. Right now, the Saudi's are produceing oil at $4-5 per barrel. There is a lot of difference between those two costs and no one wants to lose a bundle if prices drop. It is still possible to have $30/barrel oil and still be profitable. Only when the middle east production costs are above $35/barrel will investors put money into alternative oil sources. And that is assuming government environmental regulations will permit exploiting these resources.


32 posted on 08/24/2005 6:45:23 AM PDT by doc30 (Democrats are to morals what and Etch-A-Sketch is to Art.)
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To: spanalot

I don't think its being created quickly enough. We are pumping out oil at an unsustainable rate.


33 posted on 08/24/2005 6:46:08 AM PDT by conserv13
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To: minerboy

It's too bad humans never learned to get energy from nuclear fission.


34 posted on 08/24/2005 6:46:27 AM PDT by Trimegistus
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To: doc30

I'm not sure I believe the $4 or $5 price on Saudi oil cost..... but maybe. Bottom line is that eventually oil will be more difficult to find there... they will have to drill deeper etc. They'll have more dry holes. And their cost (whatever it is) will go up. I don't know when that happens.... I don't think anyone really knows when.


35 posted on 08/24/2005 6:48:38 AM PDT by kjam22
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To: minerboy
And people think Pat Robinson makes stupid statements...This alarmist is just another quack who's rantings are repeated by MSM every so often.

There is no oil shortage, peak oil is 150 years away if it even comes to that at all.

The sky is falling! the sky is falling! run! The Ice age is coming! run! Global warming is coming! Run! Peak oil! Run!
We've had peak oilalrmists ever since the first oil well was drilled.
People still believe oil is made from fossils, dead dinosaurs. This is a theory that has been around since the 1700's. There is no proof of this. There are NO organic elements in oil except as a contaminant.

580 BILLION dinosaurs would have to have died in one spot just to make the Saudi oil fields.

The human population on earth is 6-7 billion? And we consider that as overpopulated. Imagine trillions of dinosaurs dying in one spot all over the world to make "fossil fuels".

Oil is made deep deep within the earth by a process called Abiotics. This theory has been accepted as established fact by virtually the entire scientific community of the (former) Soviet Union. It is backed up by literally thousands of published studies in prestigious, peer-reviewed scientific journals.

What is there for for the fossil fuel theory? Nothing! Yet like fools, we in the west continue to believe that myth, and are fed this "peak oil" crap and oil shortage fears which drive up the price to make oil people and governments rich(er).

For all the oil that was pumped from the Saudi oil fields, they should have been empty by now. They are still full.
Why? Because oil is made deep within the earth and forms as it makes it way up closer to the surface, refilling these fields. There are other examples of this all over the world,
such as the continuously refilling oil field of Eugene Island 330 (Gulf of Mexico.

Regardless of what you believe, We have enough know reserves to last 150 years, and that includes estimated increased demand.


http://www.rense.com/general63/staline.htm
36 posted on 08/24/2005 6:49:15 AM PDT by Nathan Zachary
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To: minerboy
WE live in America, the country GOD so loved that he bestowed the responsibility of the most power of any nation ever formed. WE will not fail because of a lack of oil. WE will develop alternative sources of oil, while we work on energy independence through many technologies.

Anyone that thinks differently, is a FOOL!

LLS
37 posted on 08/24/2005 6:53:09 AM PDT by LibLieSlayer (Preserve America... kill terrorists... destroy dims!)
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To: HamiltonJay

Everytime I hear the word "diesel" I envision one of those volvos spewing black smoke, the rear window covered with soot.


38 posted on 08/24/2005 6:54:40 AM PDT by bkepley
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To: brownsfan
"The end is coming, the end is coming. - That's what he's screaming. Ok, back away from the hysterics for a moment. Just what exactly am I supposed to do about this?"

Enjoy yourself, waste your fair share, have a good time. kill a tree, step on bugs, etc. The end of the world is comming in November, so book your holidays early.

39 posted on 08/24/2005 6:56:16 AM PDT by Nathan Zachary
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To: Rammer
---nope---the "oil shale" is low grade. Twenty years ago when I was working on it for a major engineering company we were looking at $100/bbl production cost--

--there are many better options than oil shale---

40 posted on 08/24/2005 6:57:52 AM PDT by rellimpank (urbanites don' t understand the cultural deprivation of not being raised on a farm:NRABenefactor)
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To: minerboy
Oil Expert Predicts Apocalypse, But Few are Listening

Probably because it's B.S.

41 posted on 08/24/2005 6:58:03 AM PDT by montag813
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To: Nathan Zachary
For all the oil that was pumped from the Saudi oil fields, they should have been empty by now. They are still full. Why? Because oil is made deep within the earth and forms as it makes it way up closer to the surface, refilling these fields. There are other examples of this all over the world, such as the continuously refilling oil field of Eugene Island 330 (Gulf of Mexico.

LOL.... You shouldn't believe everything you read on the internet. There is no mystery to refilling oil fields. Oil and Gas exist in underground sand where once there was a river or lake or something. When the well is drilled it finds the sand.... and then the pirosity of the sand determines how fast oil or gas can move from distant parts of the sand bar, to the well, which is esscentially a hole in a pressured area. Eventually enough oil and gas is removed so that there is less pressure in the sand bar (pressure caused by chemical nature of gas). As the pressure is reduced the oil or gas doesn't have the ability to flow through the sand grains at a very high rate... and not enough pressure to flow up 10,000 or whatever feet of casing. So they'll throw a pump down in the bottom and run it to pump the oil up the casing because there isn't enough pressure downhole to force it out.

That's how reserves work. And to maintain this pressure to begin with... the sand bar has to be surrounded by shale or stone capapable of holding the pressure.

42 posted on 08/24/2005 6:59:29 AM PDT by kjam22
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To: minerboy

I very much doubt that the "peak" day will arrive in November or even in the next 10 or 20 years, but most Freepers who opine on this topic don't seem to give a damn when it comes. The attitude seems to be "I'll guzzle as much gas as possible, and to hell with anyone who advocates conservation." Say it comes in 40 years; that's as close to now as 1965, and for some of us 1965 doesn't seem all that long ago.


43 posted on 08/24/2005 7:01:27 AM PDT by Steve_Seattle
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To: rellimpank

I recently read an article saying 50 was break-even. Is that 100 that you quoted recent or twenty years ago? Not challenging you, I'm just interested in hearing more, as it is a subject I don't have a deep knowledge of. Thanks.


44 posted on 08/24/2005 7:02:24 AM PDT by Rammer
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To: meowmeow
Good thing I still have all my Y2K supplies!

I hope if there are foodstuffs, you have been rotating your stocks!

45 posted on 08/24/2005 7:04:10 AM PDT by ImaGraftedBranch (God is my Fulcrum; prayer is my lever -- Saint Therese of Lisieux)
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To: ImaGraftedBranch

I still have duct tape and plastic sheets.


46 posted on 08/24/2005 7:04:51 AM PDT by Dallas59 (“You love life, while we love death.” - Al-Qaeda / Democratic Party)
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To: LibLieSlayer
"WE will develop alternative sources of oil, while we work on energy independence through many technologies. Anyone that thinks differently, is a FOOL!"

I hope that's true, but if it is, it will happen over the dead bodies of many Freepers, who seem to think there is some innate connection between conservatism and gas guzzling cars. Many Freepers ridicule alternate energy research as a preoccupation of tree-hugging liberals.
47 posted on 08/24/2005 7:04:51 AM PDT by Steve_Seattle
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To: minerboy
Get a load of what ex-oilman and ex-Princeton professor Kenneth Deffeyes believes are following closely behind

Ex-Princeton professor?

This guy must be a real big time loony. ward churchill is a real loony and he is still, "practicing".

48 posted on 08/24/2005 7:06:44 AM PDT by Dane ( anyone who believes hillary would do something to stop illegal immigration is believing gibberish)
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To: kjam22

What do you think about what Nathan Zachary says in reply 36?

I am curious, I have heard off and on over the years that there is some regenerative source for oil and gas.

And it has always seemed impossible to me that oil should come from coral reefs; as it is depicted in the museum in Midland.


49 posted on 08/24/2005 7:08:39 AM PDT by squarebarb
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To: minerboy

I'm not an economist so could someone please help me with this question. When oil prices rise, as they are now, who's making the money, the oil producing/exporting countries?


50 posted on 08/24/2005 7:10:33 AM PDT by moose2004 (You Can Run But You Can't Hide!)
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