Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part III

NHC-NOAA ^ | 27 August 2005 | NHC-NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Katrina continues to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. Currently, the forecast models are converging upon New Orleans. However, all interests in the northern Gulf of Mexico should follow the path of this storm, and be prepared for a major hurricane landfall. Throughout Friday, the official track forecasts moved west, as Hurricane Katrina delayed making the anticipated northwest turn.

The following links are self-updating.

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi

Images:

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Mobile Long Range Radar Loop

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Radar

Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop

Northwest Florida Long Range Radar

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics

Live streaming:

WFOR-TV Miami: http://dayport.wm.llnwd.net/dayport_0025_live
WWL-TV New Orleans: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
HurricaneCity.com: http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
WTSP-TV Tampa: mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_jan032005_0856_78183
WKRG-TV Mobile mms://wmbcast.mgeneral.speedera.net/wmbcast.mgeneral/wmbcast_mgeneral_jul072005_1144_93320

Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[NautiNurse]

You are very kind to say that. Thanks.

[dennis1x]

I keep getting the impression they are surprised at the continued southward tilt to the motion.

funny thing is a couple very respected models picked up on this days ago.....but were discounted...at least its good to know that she isnt really going off on her own...the models were just smarter than the humans this time...even though they appeared "out there".

[NautiNurse]

Several hours ago, heard 21 rigs were already evacuated. See nwctwx post above with more info.

[rwfromkansas]

hence calling it stubborn in their discussions

[NautiNurse]

Yes--that was one of the hints!

[rwfromkansas]

do you expect the ridge to really start moving soon...is the current NHC track good, or will the track have to shift west more?

[dennis1x]

ill go against my usual bias which is right (lol) and say yes, they will have to shift further west....right now you have 2 main models in ms, 1 a little west of NO and 1 right over NO.....i think new orleans is in real trouble with this one.

[NautiNurse]

Good to see you here!

[dennis1x]

thanks! i was out of town for the other biggie (Dennis, my namesake)

[Danette]

When emergency management officials think about the worst natural disasters that might befall America, San Francisco is always on the list...........



hink about the great cities in this country, and one of them will be New Orleans. On a recent evening, a scientist pulls up in the French Quarter. Joe Suhayda takes a plastic rod out of his trunk and he proceeds to show us what could happen the next time a hurricane hits New Orleans.

"OK, this is tool that I have a range rod," explains Suyhayda. "It will show us how high the water would be if we were hit with a Category Five Hurricane."

Which would mean what?

"Twenty feet of water above where we are standing now," says Suyhayda.

Twenty?

A Category Five Hurricane is the most powerful storm on a scientific scale. Suhayda plants the rod on the sidewalk next to a 200-year-old building that's all wrought iron balconies and faded brick and wooden shutters. Every click marks another foot that the flood would rise up this building.

I can't believe you're still going.

"Yeah, still going," says Suyhayda.

Until a couple months ago, Suhayda ran a prominent research center at Louisiana State University. They've developed the most detailed computer models that anybody's ever used to predict how hurricanes could affect this region. Studies suggest that there's roughly a one in six chance that a killer hurricane will strike New Orleans over the next 50 years.

Suhayda is still extending his stick as he describes what he is doing, "It's well above the second floor, just about to the rooftop."

It's hard to comprehend.

"Yes," agrees Suyahada, "it is really, to think that that much water would occur in this city during a catastrophic storm."

Do you expect this kind of hurricane—this kind of flooding—will hit New Orleans in our lifetime?

"Well I would say the probability is yes," says Suyahada. "In terms of past experience, we've had three storms that were near misses—that could have done at least something close to this."

Basically, the part of New Orleans that most Americans—most people around the world—think is New Orleans, would disappear.

Suyhayda agrees, "It would, that's right."

[Ingtar]

Let me add my thanks for all work you do with these threads. And the hope that one of these hurricane seasons soon, we can have threads to party for the lack of destructive winds and rain.

[NautiNurse]

i was out of town for the other biggie (Dennis, my namesake)

I believe several of us put out APB looking for you during that one.

[rwfromkansas]

in the latest sat image, the eye has fully become visible.

I could swear it is jogging almost due south now though.

[M. Espinola]

Here we go again, even higher energy prices for the Labor Day weekend. Thanks Katrina!

[NautiNurse]

I'm in denial that New Orleans may take a direct hit. It's a world class city--and one of my favorites.

[SAJ]

Hey, new concept!! Awright! A 90+ degree imperceptible turn!

Face it, mate, the weatherguessers have scrod up big time on Katrina.

Their current guess is landfall between Natchez and N.O. -- offer you 6 to 5 against that THAT notion's wrong, too.

[Strategerist]

Well the last sat pic was from before the sat eclipse, at midnight; it's a partial clearing of part of the eye and spinning around within it.

On radar it's clearly not moving due S.

[pollyg107]

I am supposed to go to New Orleans on Monday to get my 15-year service award. We live in central Mississippi and were planning to leave right after lunch for the 2 1/2-hour drive. Right now, it looks like I might just stay right here at home. Thanks to you and everyone else on this thread for keeping me posted.

[NautiNurse]

Thank you! It's an easy task when there's a vested interest in the storms.