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Payne eyes U.S. Senate seat
PoliticsNJ.com ^ | August 25, 2005 | Steve Kornacki

Posted on 08/28/2005 2:34:26 PM PDT by Jimbo McCormick

August 25 - Donald Payne is slowing down.

Right?

The Newark Democrat, now in his ninth term representing the 10th Congressional District, turned 71 this summer, and the knee-jerk assumption of the state's political class is that he's content to coast through a few more years in his safe seat before retiring to his native Essex County.

But the congressman may have something else on his mind.

"I get a haircut twice a month now," Payne said earlier this week. "I used to only get it once a month. For some reason, I've got a reverse thing going on, where I get more vigorous as I mature. I don't know what to do with all this energy and vigor and zeal."

One outlet in particular he says he's eyeing is the U.S. Senate seat that Jon Corzine will vacate if he claims the governorship this year. Payne has articulated an interest before, but he hasn't positioned himself as aggressively as some of his House colleagues have. That means his name doesn't usually factor in insider talk about whom Corzine would appoint.

And when Payne is mentioned, it's usually as a caretaker, someone who would look after the seat for a year and promise not to seek a full term, thereby allowing other Democrats the chance to run in an open primary. A one-year tour of duty as the state's first African-American U.S. senator, some say, would be a dignified, if not triumphant, career capper for Payne.

That's not how Payne sees it, though.

"If I wanted the Senate, I would be there to stay," he said. "I'm ten years younger than Frank Lautenberg."

And he says "there's no question about it" that he's looking at running next year— even if it means challenging an appointed Democratic senator in a primary.

Believe that at your own risk. Payne didn't rise to the top in the cutthroat worlds of Newark and Essex County politics by giving away his hand. Acting like an '06 candidate could simply be smart politics, a posture that gives him leverage for something else on his wish list. And don't forget, running for Senate would mean giving up— for good— a House seat that Payne says he's very happy in.

Then again, his interest could be sincere.

Off the top of his head, he can tell you how much money his six fellow New Jersey House Democrats— the pool from which '06 Senate candidates will likely be drawn— have in their campaign accounts. Payne himself has about $750,000 on hand, which isn't that much compared to the $4 million of Robert Menendez, who is pushing hard for the Senate seat.

"All these guys can raise money," Payne conceded. "But I've evaluated my races through the years. We do with a dollar what it takes other ten dollars to do."

"The people that champion around my cause are basically issues people, and not people with financial wherewithal," he added. "I don't carry water for anyone."

If Corzine, as governor, decides against a caretaker, then his appointee, as the de facto incumbent, would run in the June primary and then, if successful, in November for a full six-year term. Conventional wisdom says that quasi-incumbency would be enough to dissuade any spurned Democrat from challenging the appointee in a primary.

"The donor base in the party is going to be inclined to donate to the person with the title," said David Rebovich of Rider University's Institute for New Jersey Politics. "The appointee would also have the blessing of the governor and, unless it's a very bizarre appointment, one assumes the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee would also be on board."

Payne disagrees.

"I think the leg up people are putting on the appointment is overblown," he said.

"It wouldn't even deter me, because whoever is appointed would have to turn around and start running for June"

At first glance, Payne doesn't have the look of a likely primary victor. He is soft-spoken and hasn't exactly been knocking himself out traversing the state, for one, and that's not even touching the money issue.

But he does have a strong base in Essex County, which is the top vote-producing county in state Democratic primaries, and he is one of the most visible African-American leaders in New Jersey.

"There would have to be more than three serious candidates, and the vote would have to be significantly divided," Rebovich said of a Payne victory scenario.

But maybe that's Payne's hope— that what would be a nightmare for the DSCC, which loves orderly and uncontested primaries, represents his chance to parlay a strong but narrow political base into an unlikely June win.

Try this on for size.

Say Menendez is appointed and Payne jumps in anyway. Maybe then Rob Andrews, who badly wants to move from the House to the Senate, senses an opening, believing his own South Jersey base could beat two North Jersey candidates. And if Andrews then gets in, what's to prevent another congressman— or maybe a mayor, or a state senator— from also joining the fray? After all, with every additional candidate, the magic number for victory shrinks and shrinks.

"I really think that if I got into a primary, I don't have any doubt that I'd be able to win," said Payne. "I know where the Democrats are, and they know me."

Steve Kornacki can be reached at steve.kornacki@gmail.com


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: New Jersey
KEYWORDS: 2006; demprimary; donaldpayne
Oooh, boy, I hope this Conyers wannabe manages to get through, so that we can have our first Republican senator in more than 20 years.
1 posted on 08/28/2005 2:34:27 PM PDT by Jimbo McCormick
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To: Jimbo McCormick

Y'know what the White 'Rat establishment will be saying 'bout that behind closed doors... "Oh, no ! Another negro is asking for a Senate seat ! Isn't that Obama enough for 'em ?"


2 posted on 08/28/2005 3:48:47 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (*Fightin' the system like a $2 hooker on crack*)
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To: Jimbo McCormick

"Oooh, boy, I hope this Conyers wannabe manages to get through, so that we can have our first Republican senator in more than 20 years."

Actually, if Payne enters the race, I would interpret that as a ploy by the Democratic establishment to split the urban/minority Democratic vote between Payne and Mendendez, ensure that a suburban Democrat gets the nomination, and hence the Dems have a fairly easy victory in 2006. Mendendez won't sell in central/south Jersey, and they know it.

I have a suspicion that Representative Payne may have a very nice retirement gift (perhaps from the NJ Trash Haulers' Association, or Corzine's union boss ex-girlfriend.)


3 posted on 08/28/2005 4:55:35 PM PDT by nj26
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