Live thread up...lots of rain...extended forecast predicts hurricane off the FL Atlantic coast.
Posted on 09/07/2005 5:11:12 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Tropical Storm Ophelia is located off the Florida Atlantic coast, currently forecasted to develop slowly into a hurricane. The extended NHC forecast indicates a slow, circular path just off the Florida coast. Tropical storm warnings and watches are issued for portions of the Florida Atlantic coast.
The following links are self-updating:
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track Graphic
Ophelia Track Forecast Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Images:
Storm Floater IR Loop
Melbourne FL Long Range Radar Loop
Melbourne Experimental Radar may experience delays or outages
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop
Additional Resources:
Central Florida Hurricane Center
News4Jax.com
Hurricane City
Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Previous Threads:
Tropical Storm Ophelia
Tropical Depression 16
Ophelia is also a famous painting by John Everett Millais, painted in 1852. It depicts the character from Shakespeare's play "Hamlet" singing while floating in a river just before her suicidal death by drowning.
Ophelia was modelled by artist Elizabeth Siddall, who famously nearly died from a fever caught while modelling in a cold bath for the painting. Millais was so intent on his work that he had forgotten to replace the candles that were keeping the water warm.
The painting is famous for its depiction of the detailed flora of the river and the riverbank.
Ophelia's pose, opening her arms and gazing upwards, resembles traditional portrayals of saints or martyrs, but has also been interpreted as erotic.
"Ophelia" is held at the Tate Art Museum in London. (thanks MinuteGal for the art history lesson).
Live thread up...lots of rain...extended forecast predicts hurricane off the FL Atlantic coast.
Now they say it might become a hurricane....oh joy!
In before the flood!
(just kidding)
Have you rec'd much rain to date?
Keep her down there!
I do not believe I have ever seen so many named storms in one year...
It was odd the year Juan happened, to get to the Js...but now the O's?
Boy she's just sitting of the coast......
At 8 am EDT...1200z...the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was located near latitude 28.5 north...longitude 79.2 west or about 80 miles east of Cape Canaveral Florida.At 5 AM it was 105 miles East of the Cape so that is either a relocation of the center or there is a much larger eastward motion than is being reported (or its a typo!). In any event, the winds are much closer now than before. JAX beware!Ophelia is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph. This general motion...with a gradual decrease in forward speed...is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles mainly to the north and east of the center.
Question for you - what is going on with the buoy data (or lack of it)?
I must go down to the seas again, for the call of the running tide
Is a wild call and a clear call that may not be denied;
And all I ask is a windy day with the white clouds flying,
And the flung spray and the blown spume, and the sea-gulls crying.
I must go down to the seas again, to the vagrant gypsy life,
To the gull's way and the whale's way, where the wind's like a whetted knife;
And all I ask is a merry yarn from a laughing fellow-rover,
And quiet sleep and a sweet dream when the long trick's over.
Sea-Fever
John Masefield
make that westward motion
There was an OPAL in 1995.
Remember Rosilyn of 1995? I think the named storms got to at least T that year.
With this storm predicted to hover off the coast before developing into a hurricane Saturday...flooding is a very real concern.
Didn't Florence do a circle last year like this one appears to be doing?
In upper East Tennessee the weather is like mid October - cloudless, brilliant skies. Low humidities. Lows in the 50's (40's in the mountains.)
You're right. 95 was a very very active year:
Winds in knots, pressure in millibars, category is based on Saffir-Simpson scale.
# Name Dates Wind Pres Cat
1 Hurricane ALLISON 03-06 JUN 65 987 1
2 Tropical Storm BARRY 06-09 JUL 50 995 -
3 Tropical Storm CHANTAL 13-20 JUL 60 992 -
4 Tropical Storm DEAN 28-31 JUL 40 999 -
5 Hurricane ERIN 31 JUL-03 AUG 75 975 1
6 Tropical Depression #6 05-07 AUG 30 1001 -
7 Hurricane FELIX 08-17 AUG 115 950 4
8 Tropical Storm GABRIELLE 09-12 AUG 60 988 -
9 Hurricane HUMBERTO 22 AUG-01 SEP 90 970 2
10 Hurricane IRIS 22 AUG-04 SEP 95 965 2
11 Tropical Storm JERRY 22-25 AUG 35 1003 -
12 Tropical Storm KAREN 26 AUG-03 SEP 45 1000 -
13 Hurricane LUIS 28 AUG-11 SEP 120 936 4
14 Tropical Depression #14 11-13 SEP 30 1009 -
15 Hurricane MARILYN 12-22 SEP 100 949 3
16 Hurricane NOEL 27 SEP-07 OCT 65 987 1
17 Hurricane OPAL 27 SEP-05 OCT 130 916 4
18 Tropical Storm PABLO 05-07 OCT 50 998 -
19 Hurricane ROXANNE 07-20 OCT 100 958 3
20 Tropical Storm SEBASTIEN 20-24 OCT 35 1004 -
21 Hurricane TANYA 27 OCT-02 NOV 75 974 1
I remember Juan, that was in late October 1985. Now we are in early Sept. and already up to O. Wha happened to L btw? After Katrina the mentioned Maria and Nate but I don't recall hearing of a storm beginning with L.
We have been having just unbelievable weather here in the upper midwest. For more than a week it has been sunny, highs around 80, lows in the 50's. I feel a little guilty for having it so nice here while others are having such a terrible go of it.
Oh why Howlin, couldn't you use a little rain :^)
Hurricane trivia:
An average Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through November 30, produces 10 named storms in which six become hurricanes, including two major hurricanes with winds of at least 111 mph. The most active hurricane season was in 1933 with 21 storms, followed by 1995 with 19 named storms. The most hurricanes in a season was 12 in 1969, and the highest number of major hurricanes was eight in 1950
Lee. It's still out there, but has weakened to a tropical depression.
My advice? Don't go to a dome for shelter.
Philippe (french? ugh...)
Rita (lovely?)
Stan (I'm in debt up to my eyeballs...)
Tammy (watch out trailer parks...)
Vince (can't think of anything for Vince)
Wilma (WIIIIIIIIILLLL----MAAAAAAAA!!!)
Of course, I'm saying this from this summer's very tame Carolina coast.
I love this poem. My grandmother read it to me and quoted from it often when I was a girl growing up on the coast.
Thanks for posting it!
In the meantime- this morning in Central Florida is gusty, cloudy with little squalls now and then. Last night we had monsoon downpours.
Thank you. Checking in.
Last time I remember that happening was Category 1 David, back in '79.
We stayed put....but our living room got a drenching from water pouring in our bay windows....
..my husband spent the night bailing, and putting towels down to soak up the water...and I was exhausted, having a baby to care for, and we put mattresses in the hall for safety....
..and it spawned a couple good tornadoes in our area, with one roof blown off...
...and even for a Cat.1, the howling winds were unnerving.....with transformers blowing across the street, etc.
At one point, a tornado touched down a couple streets over, and I remember praying hard that we would be spared...
..and this was just a category 1!!
Ping to post #1...
- Spike Milligan
Yo, Vinnie
Note: Xtrap is not a model. It simply indicates the current storm heading
Leni
Floyd is memorable to the folks in NC but here in Central Florida what made Floyd special is that an evac order was issued but Floyd stayed a little further out to sea than predicted. As a result, the hurricane force and even the tropical storm force winds only came within a few miles of the coast. I'm sure it was pretty exciting out over the ocean but onshore the weather was beautiful and there was MUCH grumbling about the evac order. Everyone took the order seriously given the experience with Hurricane Erin in '95. However, all it takes is one "false alarm" for people to let down their guard. Of course, it wasn't really a false alarm and the correct response is to be relieved that we were spared but that didn't stop the back-biting.
additional 1999 info...Floyd was the second storm of the season to parallel the Florida coast toward the NC coast. Dennis had done the same.
It's the first time since April that I've needed my robe and slippers in the morning, too!
But the sky is that brilliant, shrp and cloudless blue that I associate with late fall. It's...crisp.
Even more models:
http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/uploads/post-813-1126097007.png
The USS Constitution, made of live oak. That poem by Masefield is special, I'm not much of a poetry fan, but that one makes me see the potential.
As Thinkin' Gal said on another thread...that looks like Medusa's head.
Sam...links, please...
Whoops, sorry, got carried away, my apologies.
Not that I want to speed up the passage of time, but I'm looking forward to late October.
You and everyone in hurricane alley...
Quite the contrary. Hillary's hair is matted flat to her scalp.
That looks like computer modeling for a covey of quail...
2005 Hurricane Names
1. Arlene
2. Bret
3. Cindy [Hurricane Sheehan?]
4. Dennis
5. Emily
6. Franklin
7. Gert
8. Harvey
9. Irene
10. Jose
11. Katrina
12. Lee
13. Maria
14. Nate
15. Ophelia
16. Philippe
17. Rita
18. Stan
19. Tammy
20. Vince
21. Wilma
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