Skip to comments.Montana Senate 2006: Burns at 51% (12 point lead on closest opponent)
Posted on 09/13/2005 5:15:42 PM PDT by RWR8189
In his bid for re-election, Republican Senator Conrad Burns currently attracts 51% of the vote and holds a double digit lead against two potential challengers--State Senate President John Tester and State Auditor John Morrison.
The first Rasmussen Reports Election 2006 survey in the state finds Tester earning 38% of the vote and Morrison 39%.
Against both Democrats, Burns leads by more among men than he does among women.
Burns attracts more than 80% of conservative votes against both Democrats while losing more than 70% of liberal votes. Moderate voters are evenly divided.
Burns is viewed favorably by 55% of Montana voters and unfavorably by 37%.
For both Democrats, name recognition is much lower--nearly half of all voters have no opinion. For Tester, the numbers are 28% favorable, 25% unfavorable, and 46% no opinion. Morrison is viewed favorably by 30%, unfavorably by 23%, and 47% have no opinion.
The low name recognition of his challengers means that the is all about Conrad Burns at this time. But, that will change as the Democrats' select their nominee and voters learn more about him.
If the Burns campaign is able to define the eventual Democratic nominee in an unfavorable light, the incumbent should have little trouble winning re-election. However, if the challenger appears credible to Montana voters, this could become one of the more interesting campaigns in Election 2006.
Just 35% of Montana voters believe the U.S. is on the right track. Sixty percent (60%) disagree.
Fifty-one percent (51%) of Montana voters Approve of the way that President Bush is performing his job. Forty-eight percent (48%) Disapprove.
Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.
Rasmussen Reports was the nation's most accurate polling firm during the Presidential election and the only one to project both Bush and Kerry's vote total within half a percentage point of the actual outcome.
During Election 2004, RasmussenReports.com was also the top-ranked public opinion research site on the web. We had twice as many visitors as our nearest competitor and nearly as many as all competitors combined.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
I hope that this poll does not give Republicans false hopes about Senator Burns being the best possible Republican Senate candidate in Montana. I think our best chance of locking in a victory is for Burns to retire and allow Congressman Dennis Rehberg to run for the Senate. But since Burns appears to be unlikely to retire, I hope the poll is correct and, more importantly, that Democrats believe it's correct and don't bother to post a strong challenge to Burns.
This poll is good to see, but we need to be watchful and Burns needs to be careful. This race could be a sleeper-- the Dim candidates are strong ones and much younger than Conrad.
You make an excellent point. Denny Rehberg would definitely be a stronger candidate. And I think that John Morrison is a strong candidate. He's a two-time statewide winner who has a wealthy wife to finance his campaign for him (like Jeff Bingaman did in 1982).
Other then Governor Schweitzer, who isn't likely to run 2 years after becoming Governor, this IS the Dems strongest candidates.
This race might not be a blowout, but I can't see Burns losing it.
"He's a two-time statewide winner who has a wealthy wife to finance his campaign for him"
Interesting. 2006 elections are not that far off.
I really doubt the polling numbers are accurate (go figure);
It would not surprise me if 48 per cent were 'unhappy with how things are going' &c, but it would not hold with me that they are that unhappy with the president. Polling figures are probably used more often these days to shape public perception and take advantage of "herd" effects and sort of thing. It is a multi-billion dollar industry after all, and everyone has their own prop. data. And it gives the talking heads more grist for their mills, etc..
The Burns race was thought a possible Dem pickup. Scratch one target for them. They have a shot at Santorum and I think there's an Ohio GOP senator vulnerable as well as Chaffee.
Beyond that, they are unlikely to make inroads. Maybe they'll pickup one seat, and still be 4 short
Yes ... but Teresa and Lurch managed to arrange a "loan" on his half of their house [at a value beyond probable market value for his half of the house ... and which he could never have paid off given his personal income.] Welcome to the wonderful world of campaign finance reform. Where there is a will, there is loophole.