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Coincidently, this news report was released along with this very interesting intel report:

Indo-US nuclear deal off if India backs Iran in UN URL: http://www.india-defence.com/reports/379 Date: 17/9/2005 Source: NewsInsight

The US has privately conveyed to the Indian leadership that were India to support Iran in Monday’s IAEA board meeting so its case of NPT violation is not referred to the UN Security Council for sanctions, then America would withdraw from the ongoing New Steps in Strategic Partnership (NSSP), which would prominently and immediately hit the 18-July civilian nuclear agreement between the two countries.

Diplomatic sources said that while this was not directly stated to the Indian prime minister, Manmohan Singh, in the US, it was indirectly conveyed to the foreign minister, Natwar Singh, to the Indian delegation, and to the ruling and opposition leadership within the country, but foreign office officials here are not wont to take the warning seriously, saying that America is posturing.

The NSSP that took off in January 2004 expands civilian nuclear, civilian space and high technology cooperation between India and the US, its first phase was completed with ISRO headquarters’ removal from the US commerce department’s entity list and enabling its subordinate entities to import low level dual use items without a license, and in between, Boeing Satellite Systems was permitted to jointly develop and market communications satellites with ISRO.

Significantly, the US also granted “presumption of approval” status to all dual use items not controlled by the Nuclear Suppliers Group for use in the “balance of plant” activities at nuclear facilities subject to International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards.

As part of the NSSP protocol, prime minister Manmohan Singh and president George W.Bush signed a civilian nuclear cooperation agreement up for congressional ratification, and diplomats said the Congress would reject the accord in case India supports Iran’s clandestine weaponisation activity by supporting its position in the IAEA board meeting on 19 September.

While Indian voting won’t affect the almost certain outcome against Iran in the IAEA meeting, US policymakers fear that the presumed UN Security Council sanctions won’t be effective if India maintains good relations with Iran, because Iran can survive regionally, and the US continuance in Pakistan would become untenable.

With Russia and China backing Iran, it cannot survive the sanctions, diplomats said, but India is closer, and Indian support would certainly crumble Pakistani resistance to the Iranian regime, and General Parvez Musharraf would have to capitulate to domestic pressure to come to that country’s aid and assistance.

1 posted on 09/17/2005 7:35:02 PM PDT by Abbas Razza Khan
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To: Abbas Razza Khan

Links to the original articles:

India likely to vote with U.S. on Iran in IAEA
URL: http://www.india-defence.com/reports/377

Indo-US nuclear deal off if India backs Iran in UN
URL: http://www.india-defence.com/reports/379


2 posted on 09/17/2005 7:37:09 PM PDT by Abbas Razza Khan
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To: Abbas Razza Khan
I don't believe it. India needs the pipeline, it wants to assert an "independent foreign policy," and it needs Shia Iran's moral support to counterbalance Sunni jihadis in Kashmir. Not to mention the cultural links between the two. The Indian elites spoke Farsi until the rise of the British Raj. While India may back us up if we apply the screws tight enough, I think it's unlikely, and it's one reason why we've delayed the referral issue.
3 posted on 09/17/2005 7:42:00 PM PDT by Lejes Rimul (Paleo and Proud)
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To: Abbas Razza Khan

Let's make sure the U.N. passes alot of resolutions that won't be enforced so that the Iranians have plenty of time to acquire nukes in the interim. The stupidity of international diplomacy continues to amaze me. Foggy Bottom is a prime example of the difference between intelligence and common sense. The latter is a scarce commodity.


4 posted on 09/17/2005 7:47:19 PM PDT by peyton randolph (Warning! It is illegal to fatwah a camel in all 50 states)
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To: Abbas Razza Khan

I think the present US administration in general and Indians as a whole have become more pragmatic and less idealistic over these things.

The days when Indians thought US should have supported India because it was a democracy (naive werent they) is over. Same thing for Americans who couldnt understand why a democracy would be close the Soviet Union (naive too here).

I think the current relationship is more robust because it is based on self interest and not ideals. Ideals are all good but when self interest comes into the picture they are very quickly dicarded by one and all.

So I have more hope for India - US relationship now than before, just because it is in both India and USA to be friendly to each other.

It doesnt mean all irritants will vanish they will be around but they will be "managed", by the old method carrots and sticks.

Remember though US is much more richer/powerful than India, India has a lot of carrots and might have a few sticks too. If India did not have the carrots US would not be interested in a relationship with Democracy or not.


35 posted on 09/18/2005 10:57:29 AM PDT by ulmo3 (I don't want to be immortal through my work I want to be immortal by not dying)
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