...Potentially catastrophic category five Rita over the central Gulf of Mexico...slight weakening is anticipated today.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Gulf of Mexico coast from Port Mansfield Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana. A Hurricane Warning will likely be required for portions of the Hurricane Watch area later today.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the southeastern coast of Louisiana east of Morgan City to the mouth of the Mississippi River. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area during the next 24 hours.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect on either side of the Hurricane Watch area...from east of Intracoastal City to Morgan City Louisiana...and from south of Port Mansfield to Brownsville Texas.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the northeastern coast of Mexico from Rio San Fernando northward to the Rio Grande.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
Interests in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of potentially catastrophic Hurricane Rita.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 7 am CDT...1200z...the eye of Hurricane Rita was located near latitude 25.2 north...longitude 88.3 west or about 490 miles southeast of Galveston Texas and about 595 miles east-southeast of Corpus Christi Texas.
Rita is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are estimated near 170 mph with higher gusts. This makes Rita a potentially catastrophic category five hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. A slow weakening trend is forecast but Rita is expected to reach the coast late Friday or early Saturday as a major hurricane...at least category three.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185 miles.
The latest minimum central pressure recently measured by a hurricane hunter aircraft was 907 mb...26.78 inches.
Tides are currently running about 1 foot above normal along the Mississippi and Louisiana coasts in the areas affected by Katrina. Tides in those areas will increase up to 3 to 4 feet and be accompanied by large waves...and residents there could experience some coastal flooding.
Heavy rains associated with Rita are forecast to begin to affect the western and central Gulf of Mexico coastal areas tonight into Friday. Rita is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches from the central Texas coast to southwestern Louisiana. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches will be possible elsewhere across southern Louisiana ...Including the New Orleans metropolitan area. After Rita moves inland...total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches will be possible over eastern Texas... and central and eastern Oklahoma during Saturday and Sunday.
Repeating the 7 am CDT position...25.2 N... 88.3 W. Movement toward...west-northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds...170 mph. Minimum central pressure... 907 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 10 am CDT.
Forecaster Avila
$$
Good morning,
Please allow me to share my prayers for the safety of our freepers and all the fine folks in the path of this horrific storm.
Thanks again, NautiNurse, for providing this thread.
...As of Wednesday evening, enough shelters had been lined up to accommodate just over 4,000 evacuees, and officials expected them to be full by sunrise. Space likely will be made for another 6,000 evacuees Thursday when the Bryan and College Station school districts begin putting more shelters online, but then the area will have reached capacity, they said....
Click the link below for good info about the Bryan/College Station area.
Someone on a previous thread commented on how this was a hundred mile wide tornado. That's not so far off base.
This is the Fujita scale;
Zero (F0) Weak 40-72 mph
One (F1) Weak 73-112 mph
Two (F2) Strong 113-157 mph
Three (F3) Strong 158-206 mph
Four (F4) Violent 207-260 mph
Five (F5) Violent 260-318 mph
This storm is equivalent to an F3 tornado.
I hope people are listening THIS time. All the computer models shown on weather underground are VERY close in their predictions about landfall. There doesn't seem to be much room for change in this one. All those folks from NO must be getting a persecution complex by now. I hope they get out this time.
To all FReepers in the path and those with friends and relatives in the path of potential danger from this storm, may God Bless you to you keep you all safe. And for this nation, may Rita not take as serious a toll, politically, economically, and most importantly, human life as hurricane Katrina.
Well, when it hit Cat 5 yesterday, we cancelled our meeting in Big D. Thanks for the advice, though.
Aaaahhh...
Lovely Rita hurricane
Lovely Rita hurricane
Lovely Rita hurricane
Look at the Gulf between us
Come to my aid and kindly fade away
Listen to the frightened shrimpers
Making little frightened whimpers
Looking for a harbor where they can be saved
Your whitecaps are running higher
See the fear that you inspire
You were once a warm little tropical storm
Lovely Rita hurricane
May I inquire discreetly (Lovely Rita)
Would you refrain from dumping rain on me? (Lovely Rita, storm, ah)
Rita!
Finally got my windows boarded
Gasoline and water hoarded
Thought I maybe could be crazy and stay
Now I wait and watch the weather
The neighborhood has pulled together
Waiting and watching to see what we'll do
Oh, lovely Rita hurricane
I could so do without you
The mudflats stink and make me think of you (Lovely Rita hurricane)
Lovely Rita hurricane, Rita hurricane (Lovely Rita hurricane)
Oh Lovely Rita hurry hurricane (Lovely Rita hurricane)
Ah da, ah da (Lovely Rita hurricane)
RITA IS HEADING FOR NOLA.
I was just looking at the latest loop.
Is Rita getting smaller?
...Rita expected to weaken slightly but forecast to make landfall as a dangerous hurricane...
At 10 am CDT...1500z...the eye of Hurricane Rita was located near latitude 25.4 north...longitude 88.7 west or about 460 miles...740 km...southeast of Galveston Texas and about 445 miles...715 km... southeast of Port Arthur Texas.
Rita is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph...15 km/hr. A gradual turn to the northwest is expected during the next 24 to 36 hours.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 165 mph...270
km/hr... with higher gusts. Rita is a category five hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some slight weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours but Rita is expected to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185 miles...295 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 907 mb...26.78 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels along with large and dangerous battering waves can be expected near and to the right of where the center makes landfall.
For all the grief the BAMM model has gotten from these threads, it has been the most consistent on Rita and does deserve some credibility afterall.
10 am forecast is very very bad, time to leave and be homeless for a long time, good luck to all in Rita's path.
While this is cause for some relief, Rita, like Katrina did, will still bring to the coast a storm surge characteristic of a much stronger hurricane. A Category 4 or 5 level storm surge is likely along a 60 - 80 miles stretch of coast to the right of where the storm makes landfall on Saturday. Storm surge heights will peak at 15 - 20 feet in some bays, and bring the ocean inland up to 50 miles from the coast. Large sections of I-10 between Houston and Beaumont could be inundated, and the flood waters may reach the cities of Beaumont, Orange, and Lake Charles. Wind damage will be severe, and Houston can expect a hazardous rain of glass from its high rise building like was experienced during Hurricane Alica in 1983. If the eye passes just west of Galveston Bay, the storm surge will push 1 - 3 of water into some of Houston's eastern suburbs, such as Deer Park.
Figure 1. Expected inland penetration of a Category 5 level hurricane storm surge. Only areas along and to the right of Rita's landfall point may get a Category 5 storm surge. If Rita makes landfall east of Galveston, Houston and Galveston will not see the storm surge flooding shown here.
Current buoy measurements NOAA buoy 42001 measured sustained winds of 58 mph, gusting to 78 mph, and 34 foot waves at 10am CDT. At the time, the buoy was located 75 miles WNW of Rita. This evening at 5pm CDT, Rita should make a very close pass by this buoy. I expect waves of 50 - 70 feet will impact the buoy, and huge swells from Rita are already starting to pound the Gulf Coast. A time series plot of the wind and pressure from buoy 42001 is worth checking out .
Where will Rita go? The computer models made a modest shift eastwards this morning, calling for a landfall between Galveston and the Texas/Louisiana border. The Hurricane Center shifted their landfall point as well, and now go with the model consensus. The models have been flip-flopping frequently, and it is not unreasonable to suppose that they will shift the landfall point 50 or so miles further west again this tonight. However, a landfall within 100 miles of Galveston seems to be the the best call. Landfall will still occur sometime Saturday, but this may be afternoon instead of morning, as the storm is moving slower than before.
Most of the models now indicate that steering currents will weaken and Rita will stall and sit in place for several days once it moves inland. This will result in severe flooding problems for wherever Rita stalls, as 10 - 30 inches of rain could fall in the affected region. As is usually the case when steering current get weak, the model forecasts of Rita's motion are highly unreliable. Rita may stall over the Dallas area, or central Louisiana, or Oklahoma or Arkansas. It's too early to tell. Finally, on Tuesday, Rita's remnants are forecast to lift out to the north.
Elsewhere in the tropics Tropical Storm Philippe is a minimal tropical storm heading out to sea, and is not a threat to any land areas. An area of disturbed weather off of the coast of Honduras is being sheared by the strong upper-level winds flowing south from Hurricane Rita. If this disturbed area still exists on Sunday, it has some potential for development. Development off of the coast of Africa is also possible beginning on Sunday.
I called 'em for all the good it did. Hell with 'em...i'm calling the fcc.
The following is not a snip just my opinion:
Now that the storm has slowed down Baton Rouge, Beaumont and Port Arthur will be the most devastated by this storm. I hope All those places have taken the evacuation seriously and will leave. They will not survive a 15' - 30' surge. If they stay, they will probably die or need our rescuers to risk their own lives to save them because they did not evacuate. Mandatory should be mandatory. Police do not let people commit suicide if they can help it. I believe anyone who does not leave should not expect to be rescued like the people in New Orleans. We do not owe them anything. Many during the rising waters of NO were looting and doing everything else except trying to get to safety. They are lucky they got help when they did.
Get Out means Get Out!
If the news had spent more time covering the devastation in Mississippi and how miles and miles of homes and towns are wiped off the face of the earth then these people who think they can stay and hunker down in their home would think twice. There will be no home or town left, why won't they leave? Delusional?
I also think its funny how the media always picks the west side of the storm to do live feeds. I would like to see one live from Baton Rouge or Lafayette on the strongest east side of the storm. Go where it gets good if you want the ratings. Heck go back to NO. They had it easy with Katrina. The levees are what caused the damage there. Now they will get it good and probably for the better since most of those buildings and homes need to be demolished now anyways.
Holy cow, Governor Blanco must have someone reading our threads -- she just said live on TV that people who decide not to evacuate should write their Social Security number on their arms in permanent marker!