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It's a 'new era' of hurricanes
cnn.com ^ | September 23, 2005 | Ann O'Neill

Posted on 09/26/2005 12:38:01 PM PDT by AFPhys

...Hurricanes are...bigger...meaner...more numerous than many people have seen...[not]global warming,experts warn.

...Mayfield,director,National Hurricane Center...period of heightened hurricane activity"...since'95...natural fluctuations...cycles...driven by the Atlantic Ocean itself...not enhanced substantially by global warming"...recent studies about global warming and hurricanes raise more questions than they answer...indicate global warming could increase hurricane wind speeds...5%---100 years from now.

...Union of Concerned scientist...[said]making them more intense...recent studies...carbon dioxide is raising ocean temperatures."...converting low-grade storms into powerful hurricanes..."

...not all hurricane experts...link...global warming and hurricanes...saying,past two seasons signal a return to normal.

"From 1970-95...weren't...many hurricanes,[except]nice,well-mannered,housebroken hurricanes that stayed out to sea and didn't make a mess,"Willoughby,hurricane researcher...

"This year...nature is averaging out its climatology,"...famed hurricane predictor,William Gray.

Katrina and Rita..."Bahama busters,"...explode after feeding on the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.Even Katrina's and Rita...has a precedent...1915...New Orleans and Houston...hit by Cat.4 storms six weeks apart.

"You can't blame that on global warming,"...By 1997,Gray's annual forecasts warned of "a new era" of hurricanes...driven by cycles of rising water temperature and salinity...technical name for the engine driving the hurricane cycles is the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation..."...has been repeating back to the Ice Age," Willoughby said."It's related to changes in the ocean currents that move heat northward. If it's fast, we get a lot of hurricanes."...AMO was cool--and the currents slower--from 1900-25,warm from 1926-69,cool from 1970-94,warm since 1995...to a generation of Americans with little experience with hurricanes,it seems like these monsters are coming out of nowhere.

"...just entering a busy time here,"...Lauer[NHC]meteorologist...Willoughby...open mind about the role of global warming but believes it won't be a factor for at least another 100 years..."The answer I give everybody, because it has all been so politicized, is I don't know," he said.

Gray was more direct. "There are all these medicine men out there who want to capitalize on general ignorance on this subject," he said.

(Excerpt) Read more at cnn.com ...


TOPICS: Extended News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: globalwarming; hurricanekatrina; hurricanerita; hurricanes; katrina; maxmayfield; rita; weather; williamgray
I hate having to chop up an article this much, but there is much good meat in it. I hope many take a look at the link. I was surprised it has not apparently been posted since it was put up on Friday.
1 posted on 09/26/2005 12:38:02 PM PDT by AFPhys
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To: AFPhys
Hurricane History & Ocean Surface Temp Chart that REFUTE the article.

As was pointed out by another freeper on the number of hurricanes (by decade) we are only 2/5's through this one - but if you extrapolate the data - the projected figures for this decade at the current rate will make this ....

.... average.
2 posted on 09/26/2005 12:42:45 PM PDT by hombre_sincero (www.spadata.com)
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To: AFPhys
"You can't blame that on global warming,"...By 1997,Gray's annual forecasts warned of "a new era" of hurricanes...driven by cycles of rising water temperature and salinity...technical name for the engine driving the hurricane cycles is the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation..."...has been repeating back to the Ice Age," Willoughby said."It's related to changes in the ocean currents that move heat northward. If it's fast, we get a lot of hurricanes."...AMO was cool--and the currents slower--from 1900-25,warm from 1926-69,cool from 1970-94,warm since 1995...to a generation of Americans with little experience with hurricanes,it seems like these monsters are coming out of nowhere.

Sort of blows the global warming debate out of the water, so to speak......

3 posted on 09/26/2005 12:42:56 PM PDT by b4its2late (I was only looking at your nametag, honest!)
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To: AFPhys

bttt


4 posted on 09/26/2005 12:43:24 PM PDT by Chicos_Bail_Bonds
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To: AFPhys

Thanks for headsup. Great article!


5 posted on 09/26/2005 12:44:10 PM PDT by DollyCali (Don't tell GOD how big your storm is -- Tell the storm how B-I-G your s God is!)
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To: hombre_sincero

There is no refutation in what you just posted

Gray's hypothesis involves Atlantic Ocean temps, only, not general ocean temps.


6 posted on 09/26/2005 12:44:45 PM PDT by AFPhys ((.Praying for President Bush, our troops, their families, and all my American neighbors..))
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To: AFPhys

Global warming won't be an issue until the upcoming Ice Age is over.


7 posted on 09/26/2005 12:50:44 PM PDT by Disambiguator (Making accusations of racism is the last refuge of a scoundrel.)
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To: AFPhys

< SLAP! > That was a knee-jerk response (mine) to the opening sentence:

"...Hurricanes are...bigger...meaner...more numerous than many people have seen...[not]global warming,experts warn."

I "ASS"umed what the rest of the article was about - in fact, the charts SUPPORT Gray's predictions.


8 posted on 09/26/2005 12:51:18 PM PDT by hombre_sincero (www.spadata.com)
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To: AFPhys

I was going to bitch about your excerpts til I saw your apology. Hate to go to CNN but here goes my weather nose...


9 posted on 09/26/2005 12:53:35 PM PDT by larryjohnson (USAF(Ret))
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To: hombre_sincero
So...let's revisit my answer. I wanted to get "no refutation" out right away...

First, it seems that you are actually agreeing with the bulk of the article --- which says that we're not in any unusual activity historically, only that the typical American is surprised at the activity because it is not what they recall. "And so, to a generation of Americans with little experience with hurricanes, it seems like these monsters are coming out of nowhere."

I included the "Union of Concerned Scientist" in the excerpt only to reflect the lame arguments against the "this is long term normal" attitude that the most prominent hurricane researchers are taking.

From NOAA: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastdec.shtml

U.S. Hurricane Strikes by Decade


Number of hurricanes by Saffir-Simpson Category to strike the mainland U.S. each decade.

Decade Saffir-Simpson Category1 All
1,2,3,4,5
Major
3,4,5
1 2 3 4 5
1851-1860 8 5 5 1 0 19 6
1861-1870 8 6 1 0 0 15 1
1871-1880 7 6 7 0 0 20 7
1881-1890 8 9 4 1 0 22 5
1891-1900 8 5 5 3 0 21 8
1901-1910 10 4 4 0 0 18 4
1911-1920 10 4 4 3 0 21 7
1921-1930 5 3 3 2 0 13 5
1931-1940 4 7 6 1 1 19 8
1941-1950 8 6 9 1 0 24 10
1951-1960 8 1 5 3 0 17 8
1961-1970 3 5 4 1 1 14 6
1971-1980 6 2 4 0 0 12 4
1981-1990 9 1 4 1 0 15 5
1991-2000 3 6 4 0 1 14 5
2001-2004 4 2 2 1 0 9 3
 
1851-2004 109 72 71 18 3 273 92
Average Per Decade 7.1 4.7 4.6 1.2 0.2 17.7 6.0

1 Only the highest Saffir-Simpson Category to affect the U.S. has been used.

Note that the AVERAGE landfalls/decade is 17.7

Note that never, since 1950, have we even reached that average number of landfalls on the US. We seem likely to finally, after fifty years, reach AVERAGE this decade, but we're only half way there, so it's premature to make book on that.


By the way, I determined by looking at the actual individual reports for 2001-2004 that this table classifies the strikes by the strength of the hurricane AT LANDFALL, not the max strength the hurricane achieved. That's the only good way to do it I suppose, since before the 60s or so, there is no way to have any idea what a hurricane had been doing until it actually hit.

10 posted on 09/26/2005 12:58:37 PM PDT by AFPhys ((.Praying for President Bush, our troops, their families, and all my American neighbors..))
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To: AFPhys

Just cherry pick a few events to back up a theory and claim it be proof. (e.g. Bad Weather due to Global Warming)

My turn now...

The number of Tornadoes is down almost 40% this year in the US. The weather must be getting calmer.


11 posted on 09/26/2005 1:02:52 PM PDT by JBR34 (I paid my taxes and I want them back)
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To: larryjohnson

I can't stand it sometimes, but I know that many people are not going to go to look at the article, so I try to get as much in as possible.

The "300 word excerpt" I do at least attempts to make the information somewhat available for historical purposes, and it is usually pretty difficult to weed it down to that from 1500 words or so... I do the best I can, and it takes a long time, and figure that people can go to the actual article for at least a week or so ... but probably not after that.

Thanks for understanding - reluctantly ...


12 posted on 09/26/2005 1:03:21 PM PDT by AFPhys ((.Praying for President Bush, our troops, their families, and all my American neighbors..))
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To: AFPhys

By the way (I'm pretty sure):

Landfall Katrina - Cat.4
Landfall Rita - Cat.2


13 posted on 09/26/2005 1:04:27 PM PDT by AFPhys ((.Praying for President Bush, our troops, their families, and all my American neighbors..))
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To: JBR34

Good one... I have to run now... carry on.


14 posted on 09/26/2005 1:05:16 PM PDT by AFPhys ((.Praying for President Bush, our troops, their families, and all my American neighbors..))
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To: AFPhys

Problem with hurricanes is that building and populating continues to increase in the hurricane prone areas


15 posted on 09/26/2005 1:40:40 PM PDT by uncbob
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To: AFPhys
Sean Hannity supposed to have Robert Kennedy at the top of the hour (his last hour). I emailed Sean to ask where Kennedy received his meteorology degree.
16 posted on 09/26/2005 1:50:54 PM PDT by Arizona Carolyn
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To: AFPhys
When we here just north of Houston saw Rita Wednesday, it looked pretty serious, and thus the large numbers of folks that evacuated from the Houston area without needing to / being required to.

Image hosted by PicsPlace.to

We are all LUCKY the storm turned further east and diminished to 120 mph. But being from Louisiana also, those folks still got hammered - or worse as in Cameron, now obliterated. But at least those folks there, fewer in number, were able to evacuate more quickly than the Houston area, and there has been so far no loss of life directly in the storm...

17 posted on 09/26/2005 1:52:53 PM PDT by muffaletaman
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To: uncbob
Problem with hurricanes is that building and populating continues to increase in the hurricane prone areas

I read another article earlier today that cited air-conditioning as a contributor to more apparent "destructiveness" of hurricanes. Seems that before AC was prevalent in homes, you just didn't have that many people moving and wanting to live in South Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, etc. Now that nearly anybody can buy an AC unit, those tropical temps and humidity are more bearable.

18 posted on 09/26/2005 2:11:20 PM PDT by Lou L
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To: AFPhys

Rita was a cat 3 NOT a cat 2. NHC confirmed this.


19 posted on 09/26/2005 2:16:36 PM PDT by silentknight
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To: AFPhys

This is not a "new" era in hurricans. It is a repeat of a cycle that comes every so many years. Get a life.


20 posted on 09/26/2005 3:15:36 PM PDT by R.W.Ratikal
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To: Lou L
"air-conditioning as a contributor to more apparent "destructiveness" of hurricanes"

Well then, there's only one solution - BAN AIR CONDITIONING!

HEY HEY
HO HO
AIR CONDITIONING'S
GOT TO GO!
21 posted on 09/26/2005 3:17:13 PM PDT by beef (Who Killed Kennewick Man?)
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To: AFPhys

Rita was a 105 KT hurricane when it landed...which equates out to about 120 MPH or CAT 3


22 posted on 09/26/2005 3:20:18 PM PDT by MikefromOhio (Hey Fox News, MORE MOLLY, LESS Greta)
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To: AFPhys

Bump for later read.


23 posted on 09/26/2005 3:36:30 PM PDT by nmh (Intelligent people recognize Intelligent Design (God).)
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To: Lou L

Makes sense


24 posted on 09/26/2005 5:17:49 PM PDT by uncbob
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