Posted on 10/04/2005 7:47:05 PM PDT by edcoil
We have 9 minutes left to see whom replaces Cox for our district, anyone hear how it is going?
Any bets?
They close at 7:56 pacific?
:^)
NINE! (Again)
Wow. You provided WAY too much detail to follow this landmark event. We can't keep up, here in the other 49 states.
House election in OC comes down to immigration, abortion
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1496439/posts
Election Results Will Be Posted Here.
http://www.oc.ca.gov/election/live/e26/results.htm
Nothing up yet.
This is my CD by the way. I voted for Campbell by absentee, two weeks ago.
Remind me who the Minuteman is again?
Gilchrist, the AIP party candidate.
some very early numbers up...
We won't get any more numbers for 2 to 3 hours I suspect.
JOHN CAMPBELL (REP) 24902 51.9% MARILYN C. BREWER (REP) 7242 15.1% STEVE YOUNG (DEM) 4828 10.1% JIM GILCHRIST (AI) 3275 6.8% JOHN GRAHAM (DEM) 2184 4.6% BEA FOSTER (DEM) 1845 3.8% DON UDALL (REP) 1027 2.1% JOHN KELLY (REP) 630 1.3% BRUCE COHEN (LIB) 471 1.0% BÉA TIRITILLI (GRN) 466 1.0% DAVID R. CROUCH (REP) 245 0.5% SCOTT MACCABE (REP) 241 0.5% MARSHA A. MORRIS (REP) 232 0.5% TOM PALLOW (DEM) 184 0.4% GUY E. MAILLY (REP) 86 0.2% MARSHALL SAMUEL SANDERS (REP) 61 0.1% EDWARD A. SUPPE (REP) 61 0.1%
Dewey Wins ... lol
I was WAY off, especially with the dems. I figured they would turn out.
No, read my posts. Campbell will probably fall short by a couple or three percent.
Maybe you can get the Admin Mod to add "48th CD Election Results" to this thread title. I had posted the same results (thus far) over on the John and Ken thread from earlier today.
I toss the ball to your court. Granted, nothing more will happen on this thread for a couple of hours. The count of election day ballots is just so glacial in California.
Oops--sorry Torie.
I thought it was your thread.
I guess my suggestion should have gone to ed coil.
I'm thinking Michigan time, not California time. I figured those were final numbers, not just absentees.
He was a hoot wasn't he?
Is this going to be one of those "elections" where they keep "counting" votes until the DemocRAT "wins?"
That he was!
"I voted for Campbell by absentee"
why?
He was the most competent in a weak field, and the best fit for me ideologically. Gilchrist opposed the invasion of Iraq, and I suspect is a protectionist. The third party he registered in certainly is, and Gilchrist has not bothered to explain why he registered in that party, or what positions of that party he disagrees with. Brewer is a RINO like I am, but too old, and too bitchy. I don't like her act as a personal matter. Plus if she won the GOP nomination, it might let the Dem slip in. But she clearly isn't winning the GOP nomination. She got very few GOP votes actually. The party voters were pretty solid for Campbell. Gilchrist got a slice of the Perot voter base in the district, and a rather thin slice, about a 35%-40% of that vote.
Pay no attention to the early absentee totals. The whole election was stacked intentionally, frontloaded, for John Campbell.
He WILL NOT get enough to stave off a runoff!
That's all that matters.
The Gilchrist campaign is coming on VERY strong, and no matter the result tonight, tomorrow is another day, and a TOTALLY different election.
Guess you never owned property or had to send your releatives to school in Santa Ana either , OK, I see your points...The Border in Iraq is very important to keep sealed.
Oh be a sport, and admit my prediction numbers were pretty good. Give credit where credit is due. Yes, the odds are about 3-1 that there will be a runoff. I predict Campbell wiil get 47% of the vote, and Gilchrist is 8%, maybe 9%. I sold Campbell short with 42%. You do know that only abuot 30% of the votes were cast today don't you?
That guess would be very, very errant indeed. LOL.
JOHN CAMPBELL (REP) 28339 49.6% MARILYN C. BREWER (REP) 8905 15.6% JIM GILCHRIST (AI) 5536 9.7% STEVE YOUNG (DEM) 5450 9.5% JOHN GRAHAM (DEM) 2548 4.5% BEA FOSTER (DEM) 2128 3.7% DON UDALL (REP) 1101 1.9% JOHN KELLY (REP) 778 1.4% BÉA TIRITILLI (GRN) 546 1.0% BRUCE COHEN (LIB) 532 0.9% DAVID R. CROUCH (REP) 309 0.5% SCOTT MACCABE (REP) 287 0.5% MARSHA A. MORRIS (REP) 254 0.4% TOM PALLOW (DEM) 203 0.4% GUY E. MAILLY (REP) 103 0.2% MARSHALL SAMUEL SANDERS (REP) 75 0.1% EDWARD A. SUPPE (REP) 72 0.1%
Gilchrist might get about 14% of the vote. He is doing well with election day voters, pulling maybe 20% of the vote. Gilchrist has real potential to elect a Dem to this seat if the stars align right in December.
A Dem? He just surpassed all the Dems in this election. At least, he will finish in third place behind the Reps.
If you meant a Rino (Brewer) then yes, it is possible. But from the looks of it, it will be a person with an R next to it. Fake or not.
The General will have a different dynamic. We shall see.
JOHN CAMPBELL (REP) 33366 46.8% MARILYN C. BREWER (REP) 11501 16.1% JIM GILCHRIST (AI) 9490 13.3% STEVE YOUNG (DEM) 6595 9.2% JOHN GRAHAM (DEM) 2989 4.2% BEA FOSTER (DEM) 2445 3.4% DON UDALL (REP) 1216 1.7% JOHN KELLY (REP) 904 1.3% BÉA TIRITILLI (GRN) 641 0.9% BRUCE COHEN (LIB) 620 0.9% DAVID R. CROUCH (REP) 412 0.6% SCOTT MACCABE (REP) 320 0.4% MARSHA A. MORRIS (REP) 302 0.4% TOM PALLOW (DEM) 253 0.4% GUY E. MAILLY (REP) 123 0.2% MARSHALL SAMUEL SANDERS (REP) 85 0.1% EDWARD A. SUPPE (REP) 77 0.1%
About two thirds of today's ballots are now counted. Of todays ballots, Campbell is getting about 35%, Gilchrist about 20%.
Correction, Campbell 35%, Gilchrist 25% of today's ballots, so far.
JOHN CAMPBELL (REP) 36640 46.0% MARILYN C. BREWER (REP) 13272 16.7% JIM GILCHRIST (AI) 11490 14.4% STEVE YOUNG (DEM) 7110 8.9% JOHN GRAHAM (DEM) 3242 4.1% BEA FOSTER (DEM) 2606 3.3% DON UDALL (REP) 1284 1.6% JOHN KELLY (REP) 955 1.2% BÉA TIRITILLI (GRN) 698 0.9% BRUCE COHEN (LIB) 667 0.8% DAVID R. CROUCH (REP) 455 0.6% SCOTT MACCABE (REP) 353 0.4% MARSHA A. MORRIS (REP) 322 0.4% TOM PALLOW (DEM) 270 0.3% GUY E. MAILLY (REP) 138 0.2% MARSHALL SAMUEL SANDERS (REP) 94 0.1% EDWARD A. SUPPE (REP) 87 0.1%
She's out now. It will be a race between Campbell, Young, and Gilchrist.
The top vote getter in each party goes to the general with nobody getting 50% plus one. Gilchrist is running on a third party ticket.
Only 14%, I thought Gilchrist would do better than that. Still that's a good showing for a third party candidate, too bad he's not on the Republican ticket.
December run-off should look like this: The leading vote getter from each party can run.
JOHN CAMPBELL (REP) 36640 46.0%
JIM GILCHRIST (AI) 11490 14.4%
STEVE YOUNG (DEM) 7110 8.9%
BÉA TIRITILLI (GRN) 698 0.9%
BRUCE COHEN (LIB) 667 0.8%
I was off by .6% on Gilchrist, but I was way off on the rest, especially the dems.
I think the best a third party ever did before was 2% so he did fairly well.
Two months is a long way to go, Campbell will probably still win but anything is possible.
The important point is that Campbell peaked a month ago. He's been dropping like a rock ever since.
Between the absentee balloting and the vote yesterday, he dropped fifteen points.
In the two weeks since Jim Gilchrist's campaign actually started advertising, he gained twenty-one points. He's still rising, and no one knows where the top is for him.
Of course, the dynamics now change.
To use a baseball analogy, the score is now 0-0.
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