Posted on 10/07/2005 3:39:56 AM PDT by fifthvirginia
Health officials estimate the Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918 killed 50 million people worldwide -- more than died in World War I. Now President Bush is concerned that a strain of avian flu that has killed millions of birds in Asia could mutate and cross over to humans. "I am concerned about what an avian flu outbreak could mean for the United States and the world," Bush said during an Oct. 4 news conference. "I have thought through the scenarios of what an avian flu outbreak could mean."
The Department of Defense is preparing in case the worst happens. DoD is stockpiling vaccine to combat the so-called avian flu and amassing antiviral drugs.
Recominomic news (H5N1 in vivo Tamiflu study)
"Infection in mice does not produce the typical picture seen in human disease," cautioned John Nicholls, a researcher at the University of Hong Kong, in a commentary accompanying the report in the issue of the journal Nature-Medicine that came out the week of 14 Jul 05. However, a breakthrough in the lethality of SARS may provide therapeutic agents to deal with complications of H5N1.
Normal regimen of Tamiflu is 75 mg twice daily for 5 days within 48 hours of onset of symptoms. In several double-blind seasonal studies done on the efficacy of Tamiflu in otherwise healthy unvaccinated adults (13 to 65 years old), it was found that 75 mg taken daily for 42 days reduced the incidence of influenza from 4.8% in the placebo group to 1.2%. For geriatric patients living in skilled nursing home the same dosage reduced the 4.4% rate in the placebo group to 0.4% Moreover, postexposure prophylaxis of household contacts w/in 48 hours of onset of symptoms of index cases, reduced the laboratory confirmed infection rate from 12% in the placebo group, to 1%.
One thing to keep in mind here is that the Tamiflu tablets cost $5 ea. Moreover, it seems likely that post exposure prophelaxis regimin needs to be either doubled, or the dosage increased (according to the mouse study) for expected efficacy. It should be stressed, that preventative prophylaxis regimin absolutely should NOT be initiated until a local epidemic manifests itself. And finally, with respect to efficacy of the current vaccine, a normal flu vaccine contains 15 mcg of innoculant. It has been clinically ascertained that at least TWO (and speculatively as many as three) injections of as much as 90 mcg per injection are required so as to garner an efficatious immuno-response. Present vaccine manufacturing capabilities are woefully inadequate to fullfil the demands for the vaccine at present (we can't even manufacture sufficient quantities of normal flu vaccine).
In any case, I ran some numbers a while back, figuring that there are about 295 million U.S. residents. I figured that there were about 65% in the 13-65 year range. If H5N1 becomes readily transmitable human-to-human, I assumed the standard 4.8% influenza infection rate. From those index cases, I included an additional 2.5 people per index case (assumption based on average family size statistics) with a 12% risk for each 2.5 family members, and then assumed a 55% mortality rate on the total number of speculative cases. I ballparked about 10 to 15 million deaths in the U.S. alone. I know there are a whole lot of assumptions there, but those fatalities would manifest themselves in 3 to 6 months (the first time around), and in 1918 the Spanish flu went around the world three times in 18 months, and I would alos expect several waves of a pandemic avian flu.
FYI, there is good evidence that efficatious homeopathic prophylaxis is available: N-Acetyl cystein influenza symptomology attenuation (automatic PDF download) Moreover, one should familiarize themseves with homeopathic phrophalactic properties of Elderberry.
And something definitely to file away in the back of the brain (you never know if this may become useful information):
Haldol attenuation of cytokine storms
To underscore the critical paragraph:
"Haloperidol has anti-inflammatory effects on cytokines," Dr. Milbrandt noted. "Given these effects, treatment with haloperidol may have reduced the cytokine storm associated with critical illness, thereby reducing multi-organ dysfunction and improving survival." If you need this stuff, you are in a VERY bad way, and that would be your last hope.
The primary number one thing you can do as a preventative measure: WASH YOUR HANDS WITH SOAP AND WATER FREQUENTLY. Keep sanitary wipes in your car. When you enter from a public place, wipe your hands with one immediately. Also, remember not to accumulate used snot rags in the garbage can, but flush them down the toilette immediately. When they dry out, the virus particles they contain can be quite readily aerosolized when the garbage is discarded. Disinfect your teethbrushes in a mild solution of bleach (1 tsp in 16 oz water). Rinse well before using.
"This is who we are".
My medicine cabinet has a bottle of potassium iodide tablets for each member of family and the pets. If the Indians and Pakistanis turn loose on each other, the wind patterns will blown the fallout into the northwest of the United States. It's cheap insurance and keeps forever. It's not a panacea, just one more measure of preparation.
I get mine for $30/regime, last year I took 2 of them...so $60...if need be I'll whip out the AMEX and not worry about it, if I live I can pay off the AMEX, if we die, good luck collecting on it AMEX...
Any other antivirals work, I have a load of Acyclovir for cold sores...(no I don't have the type that are below the belt!)
"Acyclovir inhibits the replication of viral DNA needed to reproduce itself. Virally infected cells absorb more acyclovir than normal cells and convert more of it to an active form which prolongs its antiviral activity where it is most needed."
The problem with this and other orally administered drugs, as JA and others have pointed out, is that administration would be impossible if the patient is that sick. Of course, if you are trained in IM procedures and have the supplies, you're way ahead of most of us. Thanks for the nice summary info.
Thank you for your post. I wasn't aware of what potassium iodide is or what it does, but after reading your reply and doing some additional reading on the subject I'll be getting some for my medicine cabinet as well.
Haldol in this case would be by injection. I mention the Haldol, becuase the bug in and of itself isn't so bad its the cytokine storm that kills. Believe me, from what I understand about this bug, it is very plausible that w/in 48 hours of onset of symptoms the thought may fleet across one's mind about making funeral arrangements. When the doc is throwing their hands up in surrender, just remember Haldol. It will be useful when they're beginning to talk respirator. And let me tell you something about "repirator", its a futile effort at best. Can you say hemoraghic pnuemonia? I'm sure you can say "drowning in your own blood" (instead of very bad chest congestion from a normally wicked flu). That's pretty much the last thing you can throw at this thing. Again, its not the bug that's so lethal, your immune system becomes your worst enemy.
Haldol in this case would be by injection. I mention the Haldol, becuase the bug in and of itself isn't so bad its the cytokine storm that kills. Believe me, from what I understand about this bug, it is very plausible that w/in 48 hours of onset of symptoms the thought may fleet across one's mind about making funeral arrangements. When the doc is throwing their hands up in surrender, just remember Haldol. It will be useful when they're beginning to talk respirator. And let me tell you something about "repirator", its a futile effort at best. Can you say hemoraghic pnuemonia? I'm sure you can say "drowning in your own blood" (instead of very bad chest congestion from a normally wicked flu). That's pretty much the last thing you can throw at this thing. Again, its not the bug that's so lethal, your immune system becomes your worst enemy.
The potassium iodide (or iodate) provides iodine to saturate your thyroid. After a nuclear exchange, there may be a fair amount of radioactive iodine in the fallout for up to 81 days. Saturating your thyroid with non-radioactive iodine prevents uptake of the radioactive variety that could lead to destruction of the thryoid.
Having a good supply of calcium citrate is valuable to ward off uptake of radioactive compounds that chemically resemble calcium. While the iodine is an emergency action to protect against a short term event, a daily intake of calcium is a good idea to avoid osteoporosis and muscle cramps.
With respect to your regimin, you say it cost you $30 per regimin. Was that the post-exposure regimin, or the 42 day preventative prophalaxis regimin? Normal 5 day regimin is 2 75 mg tablets taken for 5 days duration. 2 x 5 = 10, so $30 would be about $3.00 ea.
I believe it would be prudent to get the 65 day 'script (42 days for the preventative prophalaxis and 20 for the double dose/duration after-exposure prophalaxis). If the doc won't prescribe, then go somewhere else. Another thing to consider, what other pharmaceuticals might one require. Because when the pandemic hits, there aint gonna be anything at the pharmacy (and there certainly aint gonna be any pharmacists there). SO if one needs Lipitor, beta-blockers, anti-psych medication, insulin, etc. I believe it would be prudent to get a 3 month script NOW for all of that. If localized epidemics begin to crop up, I'd get them 'scripts filled pronto NO MATTER WHAT THEY COST.
The last place anybody wants to be during a pandemic is at a pharmacy or in a doctor's office.
At one time I was an Assistant Psychologist in a psychiatric facility and was quite familiar with it. Haliperidol is a major tranquilizer and yes, it is closely related in terms of usage to chlorpromazine (Thorazine).
YOU said:
"Acyclovir inhibits the replication of viral DNA needed to reproduce itself."
I thought viruses are RNA animals (having no DNA themselves), but hijack a cells DNA (and thereby a cell's machinery so as to make copies of the virus' RNA, and its protein coat and when the cell fills up with a sufficient number of viruses: it explodes). Maybe I have all that wrong (since I'm a Creationist biology type guy and therefor have no clue what I'm talking about). Perhaps that's how anti-virals work: they inhibit the production of the protein coating (which masks the invader from the immune system), or garbles it in such a way that it sticks out like a sore thumb and the big bad T-Cells get down to it. Again, I'm a Creationist (anti-evo) type guy, so I bet all that is wrong.
Whatever You should realize I'm not digging on you personally (I was being sarcastic, and obtuse, and beligerant). So don't worry about it.
Those only protect for Thyroid Cancer. If there is a nuke, the body can't handle the overwhelming radiation and depletion of neutraphils and platelets(red and white blood cells). There is a drug being developed by a company in San Diego that can replenish both types of cells but the government is going slowly in procurement. Even worse, they may be favoring Big Pharma over the upstart that has a better solution.
If a nuke get detonated in a major city you will be lucky to have 100,000 people still alive.
'you will be lucky to have 100,000 people still alive'
and they might not consider themselves 'lucky to be alive' with their symptoms.
'Would you mind adding my ping list to yours?'
I've added them - I will FR mail to you the one JA and I and doggone have - sending it to EBH, too...anyone else want it?
I have got a baaaaaaaaaddddddddddddddd feeling about this.......
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