Skip to comments.World may have to live with nuclear Iran -US study
Posted on 10/13/2005 4:53:03 PM PDT by F14 Pilot
Iran is determined to acquire nuclear weapons and the United States may find it less costly to deter a nuclear-armed Iran than to dismantle its weapons program, according to two U.S.-funded researchers who advise the Pentagon.
"Can the United States live with a nuclear-armed Iran? Despite its rhetoric, it may have no choice," concluded the report by Judith Yaphe and Air Force Col. Charles Lutes, which was released on Thursday.
The potential for rolling back Iran's program, once it produces a nuclear weapon, "is lower than preventing it in the first place and the costs of rollback may be higher than the costs of deterring and containing a nuclear Iran," they said.
The two analysts are senior fellows at the National Defense University's Institute for National Strategic Studies, which does policy research for the Defense Department.
European powers Britain, France and Germany, with U.S. support, have pursued so-far failed negotiations aimed at persuading Iran to abandon its nuclear activities.
U.S. intelligence says Iran could produce a weapon in about a decade. Tehran insist its aim is peaceful nuclear energy.
European and American officials have long acknowledged privately that thwarting Iran's ambitions is a long shot and the new report reinforces that view.
In a 2001 report, Yaphe, a Mideast expert and former CIA analyst, judged Iran as determined to acquire nuclear weapons.
Nothing in the intervening four years has diverted Tehran from the "systematic pursuit of nuclear technology that could contribute to a weapons program," the new report concluded.
'VIRTUAL NUCLEAR POWER'
The report says most Iran experts believe the Islamic republic would choose to become a "virtual nuclear power," meaning it would not test but would be able to assemble a weapon quickly from prefabricated components.
To U.S. ally Israel, "a nuclear-armed Iran is a clear and.
(Excerpt) Read more at abcnews.go.com ...
We'll have to live with a nuclear Iran until they use the bomb. And then we will obliterate them.
Huh? Who's on first?
These liberals protect our enemies with impunity.
We could end the game in one day. 1000 moabs and 10 diamond tip bunker busting nukes...
And....NO NATIONBUILDING THIS TIME!
Maybe somebody is waiting for the Israelis to do the deed. They do occasionally show they have some stones, at least.
Hmmmmm... I wonder which American cities they considered in their study as being cheaper to let be nuked than stopping Iran now? I sure hope they are right. < /sarcasm >
Israel can kiss Tel Aviv, and the state of Israel, goodbye if the Iranians ever get a nuke.
Israel will not live with a nuclear Iran. The Israeli Air Force will see to it.
NY and Boston, LA is just too far for the camels.
I wonder whether this cost analysis includes the cost of a nuked city: (a) Tel Aviv, (b) a European city, (c) New York or Washington.
Calling Porter Goss!! Calling Porter Goss!!! Loose CIA lib alert!!!!
Profile: Judith Yaphe
Positions that Judith Yaphe has held:
Analyst for the Central Intelligence Agency
Iraq expert at the National Defense University
Quote, Early February 2003
You're left to just hear the nouns, and put them together. It doesn't take me yet to the point where I can say I've seen evidence which convinces me that Saddam Hussein supports al-Qaeda. [Washington Post, 2/6/03]
Quote, April 2003
[The Office of the Secretary of Defense] has no interest in what I do. They've brought in their own stable of people from AEI, and the people at the State Department who worked with the Iraqi exiles are being kept from Garner.
A SHORT HISTORY of WESTERN IMPERIALISM in IRAQ Judith Yaphe, PhD is a Senior Research Fellow with the Institute for National Strategic Studies at the National Defense University. She is a specialist in Middle Eastern political analysis with special focus on security issues. She is the author of two books, The Strategic Implications of a Nuclear-Armed Iran and The Middle East in 2015 and has written a number of articles on Iraq in RUSI International Security Review , Human Rights and Governance in the Middle East, Middle East Policy and The Washington Quarterly. She received a BA with Honors in History from Moravian College and a Ph.D. in Middle Eastern History from the University of Illinois. Yaphe was the recipient of the Intelligence Medal of Commendation during the second Gulf War.
Evening Public Lecture: A State of the Movement Address
EVENING KEYNOTE LECTURE
Ray McGovern was a CIA analyst for 27 years and is on the Steering Group of Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity. He is co-director of the Servant Leadership School, an outreach ministry in inner city Washington D.C.
Ambassador Joseph C. Wilson, IV served as a member of the U.S. Diplomatic Service from 1976 until 1998. From 1988 to 1991, Ambassador Wilson served in Baghdad as Deputy Chief of Mission at the U.S. Embassy. As acting Ambassador during "Desert Shield," he was responsible for the negotiations that resulted in the release of several hundred American hostages. He was the last official American to meet with Saddam Hussein before the launching of "Desert Storm." Ambassador Wilson graduated from the University of California at Santa Barbara in 1972. He has been decorated as a Commander in the Order of the Equatorial Star by the Government of Gabon and as an Admiral in the El Paso Navy by the El Paso County Commissioners. He is married to the former Valerie Plame and has four children.
The "cost" anlysis of the "experts" is wrong.
Consider the cost of ONE nuclear tipped, Shahab 3, launched from a freighter off the USA, and detonated at a height of about 300 km.
The EMP damage would absolutely desasting to the ENTIRE continental United States.
Somebody been blowing smoke up their butt.
Like India? Pakistan? You name them?
Sounds like a study done by Jimmy Karter advocates. Jimmy loved to tell America that high taxes, high unemployment, fuel shortages, and being bullied by little pissant countries was just the way of the future and that we would all just have to live with it because nothing can be done.
We don't have to live with anything.
"They also warned that if Washington sought to change the government in Tehran as it did in Iraq there is an "extremely high risk that the Iranian regime would use its nuclear weapon in a last-ditch effort to save itself."
Not if they don't have one.
This whole argument seems more like Euroweenies than America, although it comes from ABC. The premise that we must accept an unacceptable situation so that we can discuss it further until endless dialgoue ensues is just plain "appeasement" by another name, and, as such is the heart of the continuous, historical failures of Europeans. The American left, having found no other allies, have thrown their lot in with the Euros in assuming that confrontaiton is the worst case scenerio..."appeasement at all costs."