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Tropical Storm Warning Issued for Caymans
ABC News & The Associated Press ^ | October 15, 2005 | Jay Ehrhart

Posted on 10/15/2005 9:31:35 PM PDT by bd476

Tropical Storm Warning Issued for Caymans

Tropical Storm Warning Issued for Cayman Islands; Residents Begin Preparing for Worst

By JAY EHRHART

The Associated Press

GEORGE TOWN, Cayman Islands - A tropical storm warning was issued for the Cayman Islands on Saturday and residents, many of whom had not removed the hurricane shutters from earlier storms this season, began preparing for the worst.

The system could become Tropical Storm Wilma on Sunday, which would make it the 21st named storm of the season, tying the record for the most storms in an Atlantic season, the National Hurricane Center in Miami said.

The only other time that many storms have formed since record keeping began 154 years ago was in 1933, when Franklin Delano Roosevelt was president and the United States was in the midst of the Great Depression.

At 11 p.m. EDT, the tropical depression was about 215 miles southeast of Grand Cayman and about 125 miles southwest of Montego Bay, Jamaica, forecasters said. It was moving southwest at 3 mph with sustained winds near 30 mph. Depressions become tropical storms when their winds reach 39 mph.

Long term forecasts show the storm would likely move in a general westward direction for the next three days, then turn to the north, possibly as a hurricane.

A hurricane watch was issued for the Cayman Islands, meaning hurricane conditions could be felt there within 36 hours.

The depression is expected to bring 3 to 5 inches of rain over the Cayman Islands and Jamaica, with as much as 10 inches possible in some areas, forecasters said.

In the Cayman Islands, 51-year-old Susan Craig was ready.

"I still have all the supplies from the previous storms this season, basically a lot peanut M&M's, so I am ready just in case," she said.

The chairman of the Cayman Islands' National Hurricane Center, Donovan Ebanks, said authorities had been monitoring the weather for several days.

"Because of where it is, and the fact that it is projected to become a tropical storm by tomorrow and possibly a hurricane in a couple of days, we've decided to go ahead and issue a tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch," he said.

In Jamaica, officials issued a flash flood warning for northwestern parts of the island. Jamaica's office of disaster preparedness said several businesses had been flooded in Montego Bay.

Hurricane season ends Nov. 30.

On the Net:

National Hurricane Center: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; US: Florida; US: Texas
KEYWORDS: caymanislands; tropicalstorm
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This NOAA satellite image taken
Saturday, October 15, 2005 at
14:15 EDT shows an area of
disturbed weather near Jamaica.
As of the time of this image,
a tropical depression has not
formed, but further development
is expected as the system
becomes better organized.
The storm may develop into
a tropical storm by Monday.
(AP Photo/NOAA)

1 posted on 10/15/2005 9:31:37 PM PDT by bd476
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To: bd476

Ok....we need the picture with the guy and " Oh, no . Not this Sh*t again!"


2 posted on 10/15/2005 9:38:50 PM PDT by Recovering Ex-hippie (Iraqi Freedom= Liberal Tears....go figure.)
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To: Recovering Ex-hippie

I am just willing it to dissipate. It will work. Because WE CAN'T TAKE ANYMORE! ~sigh


3 posted on 10/15/2005 9:41:07 PM PDT by sageb1 (This is the Final Crusade. There are only 2 sides. Pick one.)
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To: bd476

This is so very sad....I had one of my best vacations ever on Cayman Brac a few years ago. Beautiful, idyllic island and wonderful people. There's a big cave near the center of the island that many of the people go to when there's a big storm coming, so they're pretty experienced at dealing with this kind of thing. They won't be having the crime problems that New Orleans did.....from memory I recall that the island is just a few miles long and very skinny. Three policemen are there who share one police car, such is the level of crime. When I asked a local lady in the village about crime there she said "oh, you need to look out for that bad boy on the bicycle over there."

Little Cayman is even smaller with even less population and infrastructure.


Grand Cayman is the much more heavily-populated island and has much more infrastructure, and so there's more to be damaged.


4 posted on 10/15/2005 9:43:47 PM PDT by Stoat (Rice / Coulter 2008: Smart Ladies for a Strong America)
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To: bd476

Let's just "wish it away" like in the Twilight Zone movie.


5 posted on 10/15/2005 9:47:32 PM PDT by dc-zoo
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To: Recovering Ex-hippie; sageb1; Stoat; dc-zoo

Tropical Depression TWENTY-FOUR Public Advisory



000
WTNT34 KNHC 160242
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2005

...Slowly moving Depression gradually organizing in the Western
Caribbean...

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...The Government of the Cayman Islands has
issued a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch for all of
the Cayman Islands. A Tropical Storm Warning means that Tropical
Storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the
next 24 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions
are possible within the Watch area...generally within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...The center of Tropical Depression Twenty-Four
was located near Latitude 17.0 North... Longitude 79.0 West or
about 215 miles... 345 KM... Southeast of Grand Cayman and about
125 Miles... 205 KM...Southwest of Montego Bay Jamaica.

The Depression is moving toward the Southwest near 3 MPH... 6
KM/Hr... and this general motion is expected to continue during the
next 24 Hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 MPH... 45 KM/Hr... with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast... and the depression could
become a Tropical Storm on Sunday.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 MB...29.62 inches.

The depression is expected to produce rainfall of 3 to 5 onches over
The Cayman Islands and Jamaica... with isolated totals of 6 To 10
inches possible.

Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...17.0 N... 79.0 W. movement
toward...Southwest near 3 MPH. Maximum sustained
winds... 30 MPH. Minimum central pressure...1003 MB.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 2 AM EDT followed by the next complete Advisory At 5 AM
EDT.

Forecaster Knabb


$$


6 posted on 10/15/2005 9:52:45 PM PDT by bd476
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To: Stoat

Hopefully the storm will not strengthen.


7 posted on 10/15/2005 9:54:00 PM PDT by bd476
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To: dc-zoo

LOL, that's also covered in Art Bell territory.


8 posted on 10/15/2005 9:55:46 PM PDT by bd476
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9 posted on 10/15/2005 9:57:05 PM PDT by bd476
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10 posted on 10/15/2005 10:36:00 PM PDT by bd476
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11 posted on 10/15/2005 10:50:44 PM PDT by bd476
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To: xrp; Admin Moderator
XRP, thanks for the map but could you please request your very
large graphic be removed and then repost a smaller image
using html code reducing code?

Example (just remove the spaces):

< img height = 400 img width = 600 img src = " ">

13 posted on 10/15/2005 11:23:17 PM PDT by bd476
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To: bd476

If you don't like it, just right click the image and choose "block image". This is available in Firefox. If you don't use Firefox, then you're up the creek without a paddle, FRiend!


14 posted on 10/15/2005 11:35:04 PM PDT by xrp (Conservative votes are to Republicans what 90% of black votes are to Democrats (taken for granted))
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To: xrp

I don't think I'm the only one still using Internet Explorer, am I?

That graphic is huge and slows down loading.


15 posted on 10/15/2005 11:37:31 PM PDT by bd476
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To: bd476

The GFS claims the West Coast of FL should watch out for this sometime overnight on Friday/Saturday.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_p06_144l.gif


16 posted on 10/16/2005 6:42:34 AM PDT by libtoken
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To: libtoken

South florida has been very lucky this year.......


17 posted on 10/16/2005 6:44:17 AM PDT by Fawn (Try Not----Do or Do not ~~ Yoda)
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To: bd476
The only other time that many storms have formed since record keeping began 154 years ago was in 1933, when Franklin Delano Roosevelt was president and the United States was in the midst of the Great Depression.

How does anyone really know if the "only other time" was in 1933? There were no hurricane hunters, no satellites and, no data collection buoys scattered around the earth. Record keeping was based upon what was seen by human eyes and therefore if someone didn't see it, then it could not exist.

18 posted on 10/16/2005 6:48:00 AM PDT by Labyrinthos
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To: bd476
That graphic is huge and slows down loading.

The size of the image by its dimensions has nothing to do with how long it takes to load. Filesize (bytes) is what affects that. If I resized it and halved the dimensions, say taking it from 800x600 to 400x300, the filesize remains the same -- say at 800,000 bytes. For instance, I could link an image that is 100x100 that is 1,200,000 bytes that would load MUCH slower than an image that is 1200x1200 and 350,000 bytes.

19 posted on 10/16/2005 8:00:58 AM PDT by xrp (Conservative votes are to Republicans what 90% of black votes are to Democrats (taken for granted))
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To: xrp; Admin Moderator
XRP, I am sorry for requesting that your image be removed.

Thank you for taking the time to offer a detailed explanation, XRP. :-)

Your explanation was very interesting and the first time I have heard that reducing the size of a graphic has no affect upon the time it takes to load.

Logically it would seem that a smaller image would contain fewer bytes. Then again, the code < img src is simply a link to an image on another site.

(Confirming what you said:)Then the unaltered (not resized) link from a requesting site to a graphic on another site has no affect upon on the length of loading time of that unaltered image on the requesting site.

And it is only size of a graphic image which can be controlled on the requesting site, in this case, here on FR, by including img height = and image width = in the < img src = " code.

Clarifying Is it the intensity of an image in terms of color, black/white contrast or sharpness of lettering which is dependent upon the number of bytes in an image?

Thank you again, XRP.

20 posted on 10/16/2005 8:42:03 AM PDT by bd476
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To: bd476
Wilma looks a bit angry...


21 posted on 10/16/2005 12:11:51 PM PDT by southernnorthcarolina (I am easily distrac)
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To: southernnorthcarolina

True, LOL! Also love your tagline! What made you th


22 posted on 10/16/2005 12:28:34 PM PDT by bd476
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000
WTNT34 KNHC 161737
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005

...Depression meandering in the Northwest Caribbean...Reconnaissance
Aircraft to arrive shortly...

A Tropical Storm warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for
the Cayman Islands.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 2 PM EDT...1800z...the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-four
was located near Latitude 17.3 North... Longitude 79.3 West or
about 195 miles... 315 KM... Southeast of Grand Cayman.

The depression has been meandering for the past several hours.
while a generally Westward drift is expected over the next 24
hours...steering currents remain extremely weak and some erratic
motion during the next day or two is possible.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...with higher
gusts. Conditions are favorable for the Depression to become a
Tropical Storm later today or tonight.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 MB...29.59 inches.

The depression is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 4 to
6 inches over the Cayman Islands and Jamaica...with isolated totals
of 8 to 12 inches possible.

Repeating the 2 PM EDT position...17.3 n... 79.3 w. movement
...stationary. Maximum sustained
winds... 35 MPH. Minimum central pressure...1002 MB.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 5 PM EDT.

Forecaster Franklin


$$


23 posted on 10/16/2005 12:37:37 PM PDT by bd476
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To: bd476

Vortex Data Message

000
URNT12 KNHC 161834
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 16/18:19:40Z
B. 17 deg 36 min N
079 deg 18 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 14 kt
E. 290 deg 090 nm
F. 055 deg 014 kt
G. 305 deg 094 nm
H. EXTRAP 1002 mb
I. 24 C/ 301 m
J. 24 C/ 366 m
K. 23 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 1
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF309 0224A CYCLONE OB 11
MAX FL WIND 14 KT NW QUAD 14:58:50 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
SCF CNTR WITHIN 5NM OF FL CNTR

they only found 14 KT winds at flight level of 1500 FT. makes me wonder....


24 posted on 10/16/2005 12:38:53 PM PDT by MikefromOhio (Pwner of Noobs)
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To: libtoken; southernnorthcarolina
Ping to latest public advisory on "meandering" Tropical Depression Twenty-four: Post #23
25 posted on 10/16/2005 12:40:27 PM PDT by bd476
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To: MikeinIraq
Good interpretation, Mike.

Take a look at the unorganized system here: Tropical Storms GOES Floater Infrared Image

26 posted on 10/16/2005 12:47:03 PM PDT by bd476
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To: bd476
The weather forcasters expect it to reach hurricane force by Tuesday.

Just a projection on their part. - Tom


initial 16/1500z 17.1n 79.3w 30 kt
12hr VT 17/0000z 17.1n 79.6w 35 kt
24hr VT 17/1200z 17.2n 80.0w 45 kt
36hr VT 18/0000z 17.3n 80.5w 55 kt
48hr VT 18/1200z 17.7n 81.2w 65 kt (74 mph) mid-day Tuesday
72hr VT 19/1200z 18.5n 82.5w 80 kt
96hr VT 20/1200z 20.5n 84.0w 90 kt
120hr VT 21/1200z 23.5n 84.5w 95 kt

27 posted on 10/16/2005 12:48:35 PM PDT by Capt. Tom (Don't confuse the Bushies with the dumb Republicans - Capt. Tom)
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To: libtoken

Thank you for posting that link, Libtoken. That does not good at all.


28 posted on 10/16/2005 12:55:37 PM PDT by bd476
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To: bd476

yeah...

But it's sitting over very HOT water....

I hope what happens isn't what I THINK may happen, which could be bad, but this kinda feels a bit like Charley given location and current projections....


29 posted on 10/16/2005 1:02:26 PM PDT by MikefromOhio (Pwner of Noobs)
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To: MikeinIraq; libtoken
Look at what is predicted for Friday/Saturday on the link Libtoken provided: Projected Forecast
30 posted on 10/16/2005 1:11:23 PM PDT by bd476
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To: Capt. Tom
Capt. Tom wrote: "Just a projection on their part."

Oh how I hope they are wrong.

31 posted on 10/16/2005 1:12:52 PM PDT by bd476
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To: bd476

I think I'll call my daughter and see what she has to say.
She lives on Grand Cayman.


32 posted on 10/16/2005 1:16:56 PM PDT by onyx ((Vicksburg, MS) North is a direction. South is a way of life.)
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To: onyx

Onyx, I thought she had moved away from there permanently. :-(


33 posted on 10/16/2005 1:18:58 PM PDT by bd476
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To: bd476

It's sunny on Grand Cayman, not windy but she expects rain because she looked on the weather map...lol.


34 posted on 10/16/2005 1:22:08 PM PDT by onyx ((Vicksburg, MS) North is a direction. South is a way of life.)
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To: onyx; libtoken
Onyx, before you phone her, take a look at a forecast graphic Libtoken found:

Projected Forecast for Friday/Saturday
35 posted on 10/16/2005 1:22:49 PM PDT by bd476
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To: bd476

Too late. I already called.

She said the storm will have to turn North to hurt them.

She'll call later. My phone card needs more money.


36 posted on 10/16/2005 1:26:53 PM PDT by onyx ((Vicksburg, MS) North is a direction. South is a way of life.)
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To: onyx

Oh good, well let's go with sunny and light rain to come. :-)


37 posted on 10/16/2005 1:36:06 PM PDT by bd476
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ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005

...Aircraft data indicate Depression has not strengthened...

A Tropical Storm warning and a hurricane watch remain in effect for
the Cayman Islands.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-four
was located near Latitude 17.7 North... Longitude 79.6 West or
about 150 miles... 245 KM... Southeast of Grand Cayman.

The depression is moving toward the West-NorthWest near 2 MPH
... 4 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue for the next
24 hours. However...steering currents remain weak and some erratic
motion during the next day or two is possible.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...with higher
gusts. The depression is expected to become a Tropical Storm during
the next 24 hours. If it does so...it will tie the record of 21
named storms set in 1933.

The latest minimum central pressure measured by Reconnaissance
Aircraft was 1001 MB...29.56 inches.

The depression is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 4 to
6 inches over the Cayman Islands and Jamaica...with isolated
amounts of 8 to 12 inches possible.

Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...17.7 n... 79.6 w. movement
toward...West-Northwest near 2 MPH. Maximum sustained
winds... 35 MPH. Minimum central pressure...1001 MB.

An Intermediate Advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 8 PM EDT followed by the next
Complete Advisory at 11 PM EDT.

Forecaster Franklin


$$
NNN


38 posted on 10/16/2005 1:48:31 PM PDT by bd476
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To: bd476; libtoken

Yep...

This one could be that annular storm they thought Rita was going to be....NOT Good


39 posted on 10/16/2005 1:52:02 PM PDT by MikefromOhio (Pwner of Noobs)
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To: MikeinIraq
The worrisome aspect is that it's very slow moving and the water temperature is up.

Beyond that, there's hope it won't develop into anything organized.

40 posted on 10/16/2005 1:53:38 PM PDT by bd476
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To: bd476; libtoken

41 posted on 10/16/2005 1:53:40 PM PDT by MikefromOhio (Pwner of Noobs)
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To: bd476

I don't know.

The models haven't been that far off...yet....

I hope you are right.

The storm has some dry air around it now, but we will see....


42 posted on 10/16/2005 1:54:25 PM PDT by MikefromOhio (Pwner of Noobs)
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To: MikeinIraq
Latest GOES Storm Floater Infrared Image
43 posted on 10/16/2005 1:58:16 PM PDT by bd476
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To: onyx

We've lived with you and your daughter through many canes in Grand Cayman. I believe the last bad one was Ivan, No? Prayers.


44 posted on 10/16/2005 2:00:02 PM PDT by jslade (.)
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To: MikeinIraq
Doesn't look there's enough dry air in the immediate vicinty: GOES Storm Floater Latest Water Vapor Image
45 posted on 10/16/2005 2:01:06 PM PDT by bd476
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To: Labyrinthos

valid point, which by corrolary means if that many storms were sighted in 1933, there may have been a LOT more in the bermuda track or otherwise not noted.


46 posted on 10/16/2005 2:24:20 PM PDT by WoofDog123
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To: jslade


You're so sweet. Yes, it was Ivan that wiped her out.


47 posted on 10/16/2005 2:36:52 PM PDT by onyx ((Vicksburg, MS) North is a direction. South is a way of life.)
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To: bd476


She'll likely call again tonight.
She said the storm is gong South of her.


48 posted on 10/16/2005 2:44:54 PM PDT by onyx ((Vicksburg, MS) North is a direction. South is a way of life.)
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To: onyx

Oh good, she would know then. Just tell her to stay safe (and I'm sure you do and she does anyway) just in case. :-)


49 posted on 10/16/2005 3:07:44 PM PDT by bd476
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To: bd476

Here's the link to her local weather.

http://www.caycompass.com/CFPCCweather.shtml

You can click "details" and it'll show you 'active' maps.


50 posted on 10/16/2005 3:38:02 PM PDT by onyx ((Vicksburg, MS) North is a direction. South is a way of life.)
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