Don't believe the lies: Schwarzenegger's Propositions all winning

SurveyUSA ^ | 10/17/05 | Dangus

[dangus]

I keep reading that stories that support for the ballot propositions backed by California governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is very weak. Even the Washington Times claims two are failing ("in the polls"), as if that finding represented a concensus of polls (Oct. 17, "For Arnold stakes are high"). I had thought I had seen them doing well, so I looked it up on the internet. The most recent poll I could find was done by Survey USA, released October 2nd. Its results:

Proposition 73: Physicials must notify a parent of a pregnant minor 48 hours before performing the abortion. Yes, 59%. No, 39%

Proposition 74: Delays probationary period for new teachers from 2 years to five years, making it easier to terminate teachers with unsatisfactory performance evaluations. Yes, 55%. No, 44%

Proposition 75: Prohibits unions from spending money on political campaigns without the consent of their members. Yes, 60%. No, 37%

Proposition 76: Constrains spending growth to revenue growth. Yes, 58%. No, 36%

Proposition 77: Removes authority for designing congressional boundaries from state legislators. Instead, voters must approve plans drawn up by a panel of retired judges. Yes, 59%; No, 36%

Now, these results may be rather skewed to Republicans; I don't know. I do know that the poll's demographic sampling has a very balanced number of Republicans and Democrats (39% to 38%), and that the state votes considerably more heavily Democratic than that. On the other hand, many of the registered Republicans are "Clinton Republicans" who never came back to the Republican party, so maybe many Californians consider themsleves Republican even though they vote Democratic in national (presidential and congressional) elections.

But even if the sampling is horrendous, the results are strong enough to stand up; The propositions the Washington Times claims are losing are winning by 22 or 23%.

It's not uncommon for populist initiatives to fade a little down the stretch. Many polls show initial high approval ratings, which are bent downward by relentless, well-funded attacks by leftist groups such as unions, ethnic lobbies and other special interest groups. But the campaign is mature, and these initiatives are still leading... and it's just plain wrong to suggest that polls show otherwise.

Survey USA does report its results as registering a boost in support. The previous poll, which the Washington Times probably referred to, was by the Public Policy INstitute of California, for the Los Angeles Times. The LA Times predicted a Bustamente would easily win, just days before Bustamente was trounced by Schwarzenegger in the election. The LA Times poll showed Prop 75 winning with 58% of the vote, but 76 losing 28-61 and 77 losing 34-49. Perhaos tipping their bias, the LA Times did not report results of Prop 75 in their vote summation.

[giobruno]

They'd better or you can kiss fiscal solvency in CA for the next 25 years goodbye.

[Carry_Okie]

We have one poll with the propositions sinking and one with them passing. I'd sure like to see something more recent and definitive.

I had no idea polls had mileage, but this SurveyUSA poll certainly has. It seems I've been seeing articles on it for over two weeks.

[gondramB]

I haven't heard of that particular poll but the ones I have seen are not as optimistic for the governor.

Here is an article on one poll that discusses the consensus of polls.

" October 17, 2005 06:08 PM US Eastern Timezone

Poll: Race Too Close to Call for Two Schwarzenegger Propositions

STANFORD, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Oct. 17, 2005--A Stanford University-Hoover Institution-Knowledge Networks (S-H-KN) online survey shows two of the statewide ballot propositions backed by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger in a statistical dead heat.

Prop. 74 (Teacher Tenure) and Prop. 77 (Redistricting) both split likely California voters right down the middle.

Another Schwarzenegger initiative, Prop. 76 (State Spending and School Funding Limits), is trailing by a wide margin, with 70% of likely California voters saying they will vote against it.

Prop. 75 (Public Employee Union Dues), endorsed by the Governor, currently has a commanding majority, with 70% of likely voters saying they will vote in favor.

While the current numbers are generally consistent with other recent surveys conducted by the Field Poll and the Public Policy Institute of California, the S-H-KN survey indicates that support for both Proposition 74 and Proposition 77 is higher than previously reported. In the S-H-KN poll respondents view a facsimile of the actual ballot on their computer screens and make yes or no vote decisions just as they will do in the upcoming special election. "

http://home.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/index.jsp?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20051017006280&newsLang=en

[Chicos_Bail_Bonds]

Prop 75 is the biggest one in my opinion. I voted absentee today.

[dangus]

I checked back to Oct. 1 (before the poll release) for titles and keywords being poll, schwartzenegger, california and prop. I found no such stories.

[dangus]

I checked back to Oct. 1 (before the poll release) for titles and keywords being poll, schwartzenegger, california and prop. I found no such stories.

Oops. Schwarzenegger. I did not misspell his name when I looked for stories.

[gondramB]

Try this seach... since we are looking for recent info i used Google news instead of plain google

http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&q=california+proposition+polls&tab=wn&ie=UTF-8&scoring=d

[dangus]

I notice the two polls showing Arnold's props having more trouble are both academic polls. Academic polls are notoriously laughable; I can probably find you some confidently predicting a Mondale landslide. On the other hand, the Hoover Institute is overall one of the most conservative schools around, so at least there isn't an institutional demand for a liberal result.

[dangus]

I presumed you meant you've been reading them on FR for weeks! Are you seriously complaining that you saw information from a FR post published elsewhere?

[gondramB]

"Yes, another good point. My point about the patient being able to determine the value of his care is also valid."

Can you imagine what the 80's would have been like with Mondale instead of Reagan?

[Christian4Bush]

I suspect that the Los Angeles Times will have another "free newspaper drop", full of hit pieces on the front page against the Governor, in the immediate days before the election (as they did right before and the day of the Recall Election).

I also suspect that their already falling circulation will fall even more.

[Carry_Okie]

IIRC, SurveyUSA's poll didn't exactly have a generally representative sample either, but it might be representative of those who would show up to vote in a special election. Ask ccg on that one, I believe she grabbed that data.

[gondramB]

Post 11 should have been directed to post 9.

[pogo101]

The sampling may be "skewed to Republicans" versus the general population and versus the turnout in a national / general election, I agree. But this is a special election in an "off-year," and turnout in such elections does, in fact, skew Republican. I can't speak to the accuracy of the sampling in this particular poll, but the notion in general that it's got more GOP in it than the population as a whole is simply an effort at accurately predicting the result, not cooking the books.

[gondramB]

"I presumed you meant you've been reading them on FR for weeks! Are you seriously complaining that you saw information from a FR post published elsewhere?"

No...that is definately not what I meant... :)

[dangus]

Other recent Dangus vanities:

IRAQ: WAR SAVES 24,000 LIVES PER YEAR
Bush Years Witness Economic Boom in Developing Nations
Check my userpage for others.

[Jeff Gordon]

Post 11 should have been directed to post 9.

I hate it when that happens.

[calcowgirl]

There was lots of screwy stuff to not believe about that poll, the most glaring being that the people who requested the poll (KABC and KPIX?) never published it and reportedly were questioning it themselves.

The questions were also very leading (by omission, mostly). In polling on Prop 76, they didn't use the word "education", "Prop98", "borrowing", or any of the other changes in the law.
["Proposition 76 limits growth in state spending so that it does not exceed recent growth in state revenues. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on Proposition 76? Or would you vote no? "]

Here were the polling participants that I previously posted here:
[I believe the current registration is approx 45% dem, 35% rep, 15% indep, and 5% other (lib, grn).

Party         # Polled     %

Republican      203        39%
Democrat        204        39%
Independent     117        22%
Total           524        100%

[calcowgirl]

PPIC and Field both show them tanking. SurveyUSA shows them succeeding (and has been the basis for about 8 different threads here at FR, hence its familiarity).

I posted a comparison of PPIC vs. SurveyUSA here, although it's been a few weeks now since both were published.