Posted on 10/17/2005 5:22:43 PM PDT by RWR8189
Three weeks from Election Day and a turn in the polls as Democrat Tim Kaine for the first time takes the lead in our exclusive SurveyUSA tracking poll. The statewide poll, taken of 750 Virginians over the weekend, shows Kaine leading with 47% of the vote. Republican Jerry Kilgore has 45%. Trailing far behind is independent candidate Russ Potts with 4%. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.7%, meaning the race is a statistical dead heat.
But our tracking does show a steady climb for Kaine. In March and June Kilgore was ahead by 10 points. By August the lead was smaller, Kilgore at 48% to Kaine's 43%. And last month Kilgore was leading by three points.
A Kaine spokesperson says Virginians are fed up with what they call Kilgore's negative campaign. Mo Elleithee, Kaine's communications director said, "People want someone with a positive agenda and someone who will keep Virginia moving forward. The voters are not responding well to Jerry Kilgore."
That Kilgore campaign of late has included a series verbal jabs made during last week's only statewide televised debate and a series of hard-hitting attack ads focusing primarily on Kaine's position on the death penalty and taxes. In almost all their attack ads, the Kilgore campaign has labeled Tim Kaine too liberal to lead the Commonwealth.
Newschannel 10 Political Analyst Dr. Bob Denton says the tone of Kilgore's campaign could be the problem.
"When campaigns get to intense and too much attack and too negative... that we may start seeing a backlash from the general electorate," Dr. Denton said.
Denton believes this is basically an issue-less, personality driven campaign, with the voters asking, "Are they nice? Are they mean? Are they like me? And I think the campaign of Kilgore is being painted as someone who is indeed mean-spirited and going too negative."
Kilgore's press secretary, Tim Murtaugh, says, "We have always known this would be a close race. We take nothing for granted and will campaign as if we were 10 points down."
But with a race this tight, it is unlikely that either side is going to let up.
Seems like the trend has been toward Kaine recently.
Polls are usually correct close to an election.
They're showing a dead heat in Virginia, that's what its going to be.
This dope sounds like Mario Cuomo, with a southern twang.
my guess what happens is that Potts supporters come home, but barely. There is still about 8-12% undecided.
Kilgore has upset many conservative Republicans in Virginia with his refusal to answer simple questions about gun control and abortion.
If Kilgore loses, it will be do to his hubris and campaign worker's ineptitude in alienating his base.
I agree. These numbers are not looking good. There has been an unfortunate trend towards Kaine.
Geographically, I wonder where Kaine's number are coming from. I'm tempted to think Northern Virginia where undecideds may be turning towards Kaine.
Kilgore better hope for a great turnout in Tidewater, Southside and the Valley...and hold his own in Northern Virginia.
Wait - what about some of the other poll info - were these registered voters, likely voters, or just adults? Also how many democrats and republicans? Is this in the article I missed it. Also - Ross Potts at 4! ROTFLOL
this survey usa organization are full garbage and suspect.
this same liberal group had Jeb Bush losing in 2002
by 3 points . Well Jeb won by 57 to 41.
The dirty little secret is with the introduction of cell phones , these polls are nonsense. The over sample the crowd with out cell line which
are democrats !
Jerry Kilgore endorsed by the Virginia Society for Human Life PAC
This race is definitely close, and I'm not impressed with the campaign Kilgore is running. They really need to be hammering the Kaine as liberal here in SW VA because Kilgore needs to score big here to offset northern VA and Tidewater.
But I don't trust Jay Warren. He is much too gleeful when touting Dems successes. I need the details of this "poll".
Weekend Polls favor Democrats. We Virginia Republicans have better things to do than sit at home over the weekend waiting for the pollster to call. ;-)
Kilgore is running an awful campaign - he deserves to lose.
He may win in end as Kaine has no platform either.
Kilgore ping.
Not the news we wanted, but it's not time to rearrange the deck chairs just yet.
1) It's a weekend poll.
2) It probably does not capture the affects of the death penalty ads.
3) We knew it was going to be close.
I had hoped (and predicted) it would be a blowout by now. Obviously I missed that one. But I'm still cautiously optimistic.
I'd hate to see a third party candidate-of dubious credentials-sink a good Republican's shot at the governorship.
Well this is great news for the me-o-cons. Now they won't have to wait till 06 to start punishing Bush and the rest of us. /sarcasm
Not really. The GOP was split in the primary for North and he barely pulled it out at the convention. Because Marshall Coleman had the support of John Warner, he polled higher. In that case, he did make the difference and Robb won.
I don't think anybody views Potts as that credible and in the ballot box, he may not even pull the 4%.
1) Jerry Kilgore endorsed by the Virginia Society for Human Life PAC
Kilgore in three debates “has not handled the abortion question as effectively as he might” by thrice refusing to say whether he would sign legislation to roll back or eliminate abortion rights in Virginia, Stephen J. Farnsworth of the University of Mary Washington noted.
2) Kilgore Endorsed by National Rifle Association
Kilgore picks up NRA support (but continues to attack grassroots gun rights group VCDL)
http://www.washtimes.com/metro/20051006-103649-4669r.htm
VCDL impresses me as the type of pressure group that instead of being a player is content to be the boy with his nose pressed against the candy store window.
The Dixiecrats sure must be pleased their "conservative" state has leaders to the left of the socialist Republic of Maryland. Anything to get grandpappy's old party in the power.
If "conservative" Virgina elects TWO socialist Dem governors in a row, the rest of the nation will take notice when Virgina proclaims how their conservatives are Presidential contendors who can magically win everywhere (except in 'conservative' Virigina, evidentially)
For George Allen's sake, I hope the GOP takes back their state from the Dixiecrats.
I don't care what THIS poll says, Kilgore will win by a comfortable margin. My guess is that Kilgore will win by 5%.
I doubt Kaine can get above 45% of the vote.
JUST MAKE SURE TO VOTE AND VICTORY WILL BE OURS!!
We just need to knock on a few more doors.
2) It probably does not capture the affects of the death penalty ads.
I'm sorry, but SurveyUSA and Mason-Dixon are the best state pollsters currently
"VCDL impresses me as the type of pressure group that instead of being a player is content to be the boy with his nose pressed against the candy store window."
As a NRA member, Gun Owners of America; I can tell you that the VCDL did more in the past year than the NRA did in ten in Virginia. Here is a short list of their pro-2nd Amendment activities.
VCDL Accomplishments
Instrumental in Getting Virginia's Concealed Carry Law Changed From "May Issue" to "Shall Issue" in 1995, Swelling The Number of Permit Holders From a Few Thousand in 1994 to Over 110,000 as of Mid 2002
Worked with Henrico Board of Supervisors to get ban on permit holders in Henrico parks removed
Played a key roll in getting preemption laws strengthened so that permit holders are *totally* protected from grand fathered ordinance while carrying or possessing a firearm.
Distributed Pro-Self-Defense Literature at The Stand For Children Rally in Washington, DC
Engineered a Change in Fairfax County's "Hunting Laws" to Exempt Persons Lawfully Carrying Firearms For Personal Safety From County Hunting Restrictions
Derailed "Operation Scarlet Letter" in Bath County
Stopped a Proposed City Gun Ban in Harrisonburg
The ONLY Organization to Get Pro Gun Bills Introduced in Each of The Last 6 Legislative Sessions
VCDL Originated Technical & Procedural Improvements Were Made in 1999 to The Concealed Carry Law
Pressured Lowe's Stores to Allow Concealed Carry on Premises
Worked With Legislators to Get Three Pro-Gun Bills Introduced in The 1998 Legislative Session. One, The Bill to Repeal The Ban on Carrying Concealed in Restaurants, Passed The VA Senate, Before Dying in an Anti-Gun House Committee
Defeated Fairfax County's Illegal County Facility Gun Ban Regulation in Court
Stopped Mandatory FBI Fingerprint Registration of CHP Applicants in Fairfax And Prince William Counties
Forced Fairfax County to comply with the Virginia CHP law by eliminating:
...* Personal history form
...* Police interrogation of applicant
...* Excessive fees
Forced Fairfax County Police to Revamp Their "Firearms Safety Presentation"
Compelled The Prince William County Police to Revise Its' Gun Safety Brochure
Forced Roanoke and Salem Civic Centers to remove wording from signs banning guns
Instrumental in Getting The Governor to Allow For Concealed Carry in State Parks
Got a Strengthened Preemption Bill Signed Into Law in 2002 Session, Forcing Arlington to Drop its Gun Ban in City Buildings
Had City of Richmond Remove Illegal Signs Banning Guns From City Hall Building
Stopped an Illegal Gun Ban in Henrico County Buildings
Got Cities of Richmond, Hampton, And Williamsburg And Counties of Isle of Wight And Franklin to Remove Illegal Signs Banning Guns in Parks And Libraries
Come on Virginia!
"The statewide poll, taken of 750 Virginians"
This poll is of "Virginians," not registered to vote or most likely to vote. Using the word "Virginians" is a very clever alternative to the more appropriate word "adults." I'd watch Rasmussen, Scott only polls "most likely to vote," and he currently has Kilgore up 2-3 points. I'm not saying Kilgore is in great shape, he's not, but I do believe he will win by 3-4 points.
It's likely voters
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportPopup.aspx?g=f47b00b3-9b6f-4b82-acc2-ed4eda949b62&q=18298
I stand corrected (I saw that on realclearpolitics.com), but it is not of "most likely to vote" where Rasmussen has Kilgore up by 2%. I called Rasmussen's NJ office and they said they will have a new poll on this race posted Friday. I look forward to seeing it.
I don't understand what you mean by that since it's the same thing as "likely voters". Anyway, I look forward to the Rasmussen poll as well; my guess is Kilgore up by 1% or tied.
Kilgore has decided to go super-negative the last few weeks. Hopefully that choice isn't backfiring. I still say he wins.
Both Kilgore and Kaine seem to be completely run by political operatives, but Kilgore even more rigidly so than Kaine. Both candidates are promising to spend lots of money (roads, for instance). I wouldn't vote for Potts in a million years, but IMO he's dead on when he points out that there's no way for the state to do everyhting Kilgore and Kaine are promising without raising taxes again. I give him a little credit for being honest on that one.
The death penalty ads Kilgore is running now could end up winning the race for him (unless of course there's backlash from people who realize how irrelevant they are), but they don't address any of the big problems Virginia faces. Virginia is one of the most pro-death penalty states in the country and neither candidate will change that.
"It is time for payback. We are planning on punishing 'Republicans' at the ballot box who support increased state spending, raised our taxes after November 2002 sales tax referendum, where Virginia voters rejected higher taxes by a large margin, who are pro-abortion, and who anti-gun rights."
I don't disagree with that way of thinking but that needs to be saved for primary elections where you replace RINOs with principled conservatives. You do not punish Republicans by electing Democrats in the general election as that is self-defeating.
You do not punish Republicans by electing Democrats in the general election as that is self-defeating.
These 17 state 'leaders' could hardly be considered 'Republicans' to begin with.
Why reward them for going against the will of the people and their party ideals are re-elect them to office?
I agree that their replacement should be fiscal conservatives.
Reward now, punish later within the party. Maybe you should send a well written letter or better yet a petition to your Rep if he/she is a RINO and tell them how you held your nose to vote for them. But warn them about being challenged seriously in the primary if they don't change their tune.
Moody from the TW area got his in the primary and good. Do not replace the enemy with the worse enemy. The RINOs will get message better from their own party than from the general election. Electing liberal Democrats to punish liberal Republicans makes no sense whatsoever. Look what Ken Cuccinelli did to discredit that rat traitor Walter Berry. It can be done faster but we need to organize better and increase turnout during the primary process.
If you're going to punish Republicans that has to happen in Republican primaries (either that or help elect Democrats). I didn't see a wave of new conservative Republicans winning primaries.
I agree with you there. I believe there were six GOP members of the Virginia General Assembly who were challenged in the primary due to their voting in favor of an unneeded and excessive tax increase. Since we have open primaries in Virginia, the teachers union (VEA) came out in force to vote for the RINOS in our primary. Only one challenger, Chris Craddock was able to pick off a tax-hiker. There's a movement to try and close the primaries to keep that from happening again in the future.
Virginia Republicans, get off your butts and put Kilgore over the top. If we don't work hard, there is no chance.
There are four catergories when you poll:
1) Adults
2) Registered Voters
3) Likely Voters
4) Most Likely to Vote
John Zogby and Rasmussen only poll "Most Likely to Vote," although I think Zogby's polls too many dems and Independents.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2005/Virginia%20Governor_October%2012.htm
You're right, I'm wrong, and thank you for pointing that out.
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