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PPI surges 1.9%, most since 1974 (Producer Price (Wholesale)Index))
MarketWatch.com (by Dow Jones) ^ | 10/18/05 | Rex Nutting

Posted on 10/18/2005 12:14:30 PM PDT by SierraWasp

Edited on 10/18/2005 1:14:29 PM PDT by Admin Moderator. [history]

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. wholesale prices rose a larger-than-expected 1.9% in September, the biggest jump in 31 years, the Labor Department said Tuesday.

Price increases were led by a 7.1% rise in wholesale energy prices, the biggest jump in 15 years. Food prices also soared, rising 1.4% on a record 49% increase in egg prices.


(Excerpt) Read more at marketwatch.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: index; inflation; prices; wholesale
Huge spike!!!
1 posted on 10/18/2005 12:14:38 PM PDT by SierraWasp
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To: SierraWasp

Results of the Fed's "Easy Money" policy. I called this one about a year ago.


2 posted on 10/18/2005 12:16:09 PM PDT by Clemenza (Gentlemen, Behold!)
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To: SierraWasp

This is gonna make Greenspan's replacement even more important.


3 posted on 10/18/2005 12:17:23 PM PDT by gondramB (Conservatism is a positive doctrine. Reactionaryism is a negative doctrine.)
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To: Clemenza
Why do I have this uneasy feeling that I had when Nixon resigned and Ford was wearing that silly WIN button that stood for "Whip Inflation Now!" Next, we'll be repeatind the Carter years with stagflation and the "Misery Index!"

Well... History does repeat it'self and the more things change, the more they stay the same!!!

4 posted on 10/18/2005 12:21:50 PM PDT by SierraWasp (The only thing that can save CA is making eastern CA the 51st state called Sierra Republic!!!)
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To: gondramB

True!!!


5 posted on 10/18/2005 12:22:28 PM PDT by SierraWasp (The only thing that can save CA is making eastern CA the 51st state called Sierra Republic!!!)
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To: SierraWasp

Yep, all we need is for polyester to come back into fashion, and for herpes to become "hip" again and we will be back to the 70s. Even see kids with shag haircuts and people buying fondue sets again.


6 posted on 10/18/2005 12:23:38 PM PDT by Clemenza (Gentlemen, Behold!)
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To: SierraWasp

Yes, but even here the silver lining would be...

Remember WHO WE GOT after Carter??

Another Reagan would almost be worth it.


7 posted on 10/18/2005 12:23:43 PM PDT by RockinRight (I am beginning to think conservatism is buried somewhere under New Orleans' mud...)
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To: SierraWasp

Every energy crisis is going to result in the exact same scenario. And we are in a big one right now. Wait until people get their natural gas bills this winter. Two short months away. Then you will see the real deal.


8 posted on 10/18/2005 12:23:45 PM PDT by mysterio
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To: SierraWasp

Now all we need is price controls, bell bottoms, and vans with waterbeds in them.


9 posted on 10/18/2005 12:24:04 PM PDT by Moonman62 (Federal creed: If it moves tax it. If it keeps moving regulate it. If it stops moving subsidize it)
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To: mysterio
Every energy crisis is going to result in the exact same scenario. And we are in a big one right now. Wait until people get their natural gas bills this winter. Two short months away. Then you will see the real deal.

Yes, people will reduce their consumption and prices will fall. It's called supply and demand and it works every time.

I noticed in my neck of the woods gas prices are down about 50 cents a gallon in the last few weeks.

10 posted on 10/18/2005 12:33:05 PM PDT by va4me ("Government isn't the solution to the problem, it is the problem" - Ronald Reagan)
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To: SierraWasp

More MSM trying to talk the economy into recession.


11 posted on 10/18/2005 12:35:58 PM PDT by balch3
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To: SierraWasp

I thought the headline was about ulcer or GERD medication.


12 posted on 10/18/2005 12:41:58 PM PDT by HEY4QDEMS (Ham & Eggs: A day's work for a hen, A lifetime commitment for a pig.)
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To: SierraWasp

This will be the largest uptick in the index for a long time. The current inflation scare will be relatively short-lived. We are in a long-term deflationery environment through about 2017. Sorry I don't have time to give you all the details here, maybe I'll do a topic on the subject.

Greenspan is not to blame for this spike, as claimed by a poster above. Energy prices are the reason for the spike. As properly noted above by another poster, oil and natural gas prices will decline as supply increases. Supplies will increase over time. The question is how well supply increase keep up with demand increase.

Congress is at fault if exploration and supply does not increase faster than demand. The oil and natural gas is waiting to be taken out of the ground. Congress needs to incentivize the process. So far, Congress has sat on its' collective hands, but pressure will build soon. Let's just hope they take proper action, not short term quasi-fixes.


13 posted on 10/18/2005 12:58:28 PM PDT by SaxxonWoods
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To: Clemenza
I called this one about a year ago.

And you're bragging about it?

14 posted on 10/18/2005 12:59:42 PM PDT by the invisib1e hand (denial is the opiate of the masses.)
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To: SierraWasp
Old news. This spike includes last months crude and gasoline prices which have since dropped by about 15% for crude and about 30% for gasoline. he more important number is the one that is x the more volatile components of the PPI

The core rate is up 2.6% in the past year, unchanged from August. (this is more important).
15 posted on 10/18/2005 1:02:43 PM PDT by Eagles Talon IV
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To: SaxxonWoods

But...but...what about the Carribou?


16 posted on 10/18/2005 1:04:09 PM PDT by Eagles Talon IV
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To: va4me
"I noticed in my neck of the woods gas prices are down about 50 cents a gallon in the last few weeks."

Ain't it amazin' how everyone screams bloody murder when gasoline prices go up and remain totally silent when they drop? I have come to expect it by the MSM who only want to offer doom and gloom and blame it on Bush but it even goes on here. Prices in parts of NJ have gone from $3.39 per gallon to $2.61 in less then a month. Listen to the crickets.....

17 posted on 10/18/2005 1:09:00 PM PDT by Eagles Talon IV
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To: SaxxonWoods
We are in a long-term deflationery environment through about 2017.

It's pretty amazing to see such long-range predictions when we do not even know what will happen next quarter. Could you please elaborate on this?

18 posted on 10/18/2005 1:13:06 PM PDT by TopQuark
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To: Eagles Talon IV
Ain't it amazin' how everyone screams bloody murder when gasoline prices go up and remain totally silent when they drop?

Ah, but conservatives are only conservative in everything but economics: that is the sign of the times that even conservatives do not like markets.

19 posted on 10/18/2005 1:14:52 PM PDT by TopQuark
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To: TopQuark

Nice catch, TQ, it is a rather brazen prediction, isn't it? Years of study went into that little remark, and it would take a long time to explain it properly. I study such things in my work, demographics are the base for most of my predictions. I have predictions going out to about 2025, but they are large-scale notions. I don't know what will happen next quarter either, lol.

If I get time, I'll do an article on it here, and you will be welcome to flame away if you wish.


20 posted on 10/18/2005 1:24:44 PM PDT by SaxxonWoods
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To: Eagles Talon IV

LOL, the Wapiti will increase, of course, as they have since the Alaskan Pipeline was built. They love the thing, but you already knew that, didn't you, you sneaky person?


21 posted on 10/18/2005 1:26:45 PM PDT by SaxxonWoods
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To: SierraWasp

Get ready for the biggest contraction in 20+ years folks.


22 posted on 10/18/2005 1:28:15 PM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: SaxxonWoods

"If I get time, I'll do an article on it here, and you will be welcome to flame away if you wish"

I'm still waiting.


23 posted on 10/18/2005 1:58:16 PM PDT by VRing
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To: SaxxonWoods
We are in a long-term deflationery environment through about 2017.

I'd like to plan. Would that be through January or February of 2017?
24 posted on 10/18/2005 2:00:53 PM PDT by BikerNYC (Modernman should not have been banned.)
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To: TopQuark
Huh, speak for yourself...I'm conservative and I like markets free and unfettered by government controls.

In anticipation of substantially higher NG bills this winter, my wife and I have decided to forgo our annual Christmas shopping trip along Chicago's Magnificent Mile (what's left of it that is, although Watertower is still awesome at Xmas time) and instead have a little more ready cash on hand to make up for any budget-busting heating bills. If we need it, we have it; if we don't, then we'll max out the IRA a little earlier next year! We also stocked up on more firewood this year than in the past.

It's not like we don't know what may be coming. The MSM has been beating the heating-cost drum for two months now. It's called taking responsibility for your own well-being, a conservative concept taught to me by the greatest conservative I've ever known, my Dad.

25 posted on 10/18/2005 2:24:16 PM PDT by liberty_lvr (Those who stand for nothing fall for anything.)
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To: SaxxonWoods

By " write an article here" I meant on the site, as a topic, not in this thread. It would quite some time to lay out the whole picture for you. You probably wouldn't agree with my take anyway. I have to make some multi-million dollar bets in my business, and the bank wants its' money back on time. I study demographic trends to support my risk-taking endeavors, which can take 18 months to 6 years to complete.

So far, I'm 8 for 9, which is pretty good. The risks are high, if I was 6 for 9, I would be out of business.


26 posted on 10/18/2005 2:36:36 PM PDT by SaxxonWoods
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To: SaxxonWoods
you will be welcome to flame away if you wish.

It's not my purpose at all. In fact, you have my respect for being so daring. I am curious about the model and the logic of arguments -- even if the predictions themselves are not accurate. So please let me know when you are ready.

27 posted on 10/18/2005 4:10:54 PM PDT by TopQuark
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To: liberty_lvr

You are lucky to have such a wise Dad.


28 posted on 10/18/2005 4:12:41 PM PDT by TopQuark
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To: Clemenza
Results of the Fed's "Easy Money" policy. I called this one about a year ago.

You are very similar to the stock market, which successfully predicted 10 out 4 last recessions.

So, according to you, it's not Katrina but "easy money." And all that supposedly easy money had no effect for the whole year, did not cause a gradual acceleration of prices but a spike --- exactly 12 months into the prediction period.

Amazing. Nothing short of amazing.

29 posted on 10/18/2005 4:16:06 PM PDT by TopQuark
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To: TopQuark
It usually takes 6 months to a year for the effects of "artificially" low interest rates to have an effect on inflation. The Fed is right to take away the punch bowl.

People don't cause inflation. Disasters don't cause inflation. Governments do.

30 posted on 10/18/2005 4:21:20 PM PDT by Clemenza (Gentlemen, Behold!)
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To: Clemenza
"People don't cause inflation. Disasters don't cause inflation. Governments do."

Yep! Nothin whips up inflation like politicians tryin to look good an buy votes with "guns and butter" and pork!!! (along with high speed/high volume printing presses to back it all up)

BOHICA!!!

31 posted on 10/18/2005 5:03:17 PM PDT by SierraWasp (The only thing that can save CA is making eastern CA the 51st state called Sierra Republic!!!)
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To: Clemenza
People don't cause inflation. Disasters don't cause inflation. Governments do.

Wow, that is really deep, man.

If you have 10 gadgets sold at $1 each in August and in September out of 10 produced gadgets one half is destroyed by a hurricane, the resulting increase in price is not inflation?

It usually takes 6 months to a year for the effects of "artificially" low interest rates to have an effect on inflation.

YOu are avoiding the question. What is described above is a lag with which the phenomenon appears, whereas I asked you to explain the spike. It is rapid changes in the environment (such as Katrina, not money supply) that produce rapid changes in the state of the system.

Your statement and "predictions" violate basic notions of dynamics.

32 posted on 10/18/2005 5:16:17 PM PDT by TopQuark
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To: TopQuark
Katrina only impacted a small sector of the economy. Before you use a certain three-letter word that begins with "O" let me inform you that 1. Oil platforms were back in operation almost immediately 2. the level of supply coming into port was not disrupted and 3. Neither was refinery capacity finally 4. The increase in oil has been going on for at least two years due to both speculation and demand in the developing world. The bubble will pop, however.

Again, what we see now is merely the result of an increase in the money supply, not some short term spike cause by an event that affected a small part of the country.

33 posted on 10/18/2005 5:20:51 PM PDT by Clemenza (Gentlemen, Behold!)
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To: Clemenza

Clem, I agree with your basic point, and the air is coming out of the oil bubble already. Pop is a strong word, but a definite hiss is taking place, if you get my drift. I like to watch the AMEX oil index, and the chart has broken down, forming a classic head and shoulders, and looks to be headed south.

Check it here:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EXOI&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=


34 posted on 10/19/2005 9:29:38 AM PDT by SaxxonWoods
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