If America invades Iran: Price of oil per barrel will approach $150, warns Iranian diplomat

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2005\10\27\story_27-10-2005_pg7_36 ^

[USFRIENDINVICTORIA]

And, if past is prologue, the price spike would spur development of new alternative energy sources, plus more efficient energy use. The result would be new record-low oil prices, just in time for Iran to get back into the market.

[oceanagirl]

Worldwide oil supplies are tight right now due to increased demand from emerging countries like India and China. Markets for refined products may be even tighter. If Iran should hold back its contribution, say 3-4 million barrels per day out of the approximately 82-84 being produced now, prices will climb significantly.

In addition, and perhaps more important, Iran may close or try to close the Straits of Hormuz to all naval traffic. The U.S. would obviously try to prevent this, but the Iranians have Russian-made and very lethal Sunburn shore to ship missiles.

If the Iranians were successful, Saudi, Kuwaiti, Iraqi and Emirates oil would not flow out. That is a huge, huge percentage of the world supply of oil and refined products.

Even the threat of military action in the Gulf and Straits of Hormuz might make insurance on marine shipments either too costly for most or just completely unavailable.

[RockinRight]

If only we could nuke 'em and be done with it.

[USFRIENDINVICTORIA]

No dhimmitude for oil!

[TADSLOS]

Sounds like a bargain. Let's Roll!

[joesnuffy]

I support war against Iran... for oil

[FLCowboy,]

I think we've seen the end of invading or occupying Arab states. A couple of strategically dropped bombs would shut down their ports, thus shutting down their oil revenue.

[luvbach1]

Price of oil per barrel will approach $150, warns Iranian diplomat.

Not if we take it. What is it the Left always says? "It's all about oil?"

[markedmannerf]

good question? But if we invade the price will be a BIG FAT $0

[markedmannerf]

good question? But if we invade the price will be a BIG FAT $0

[NJ_gent]

"If we invade Russia and Norway, and Venezuela and Iran at the same time oil will go to $1000 a barrel."

And if we drop nuclear weapons on our own refineries, gasoline will cost $12,000/gal. And if aliens from the 12th dimension turn the moon into jello...

[Proud_USA_Republican]

In addition, and perhaps more important, Iran may close or try to close the Straits of Hormuz to all naval traffic. The U.S. would obviously try to prevent this, but the Iranians have Russian-made and very lethal Sunburn shore to ship missiles.

I predict their control of the strait would last about 15 minutes.

[layman]

Three points. First, Iran exports 2.6 million barrels of oil per day. This is a pimple on the butt of world oil supply. Second, if oil goes to $150 per barrel then even more incentive will exist for the development of alternatives; an endeavor which is going full speed ahead as the world has come to realize that the Mideast cannot be relied upon because of the demonstrated inability of Islam to coexist with the world at large. And third, Iran's nuclear facilities can, and will, be taken out without one American boot hitting the ground.

[reagan_fanatic]

“We will not develop nuclear weapons,” the Iranian diplomat pledged. “We honour our word.”

You are a muslim, and as a muslim is acceptable to lie to an infidel. You are a liar.

[Jalapeno]

In addition, and perhaps more important, Iran may close or try to close the Straits of Hormuz to all naval traffic. The U.S. would obviously try to prevent this, but the Iranians have Russian-made and very lethal Sunburn shore to ship missiles.

In an invasion scenario this woul be a very short term threat.

[festus]

Yah but the price of lampshades should plummet.

[surely_you_jest]

A $150 bbl spot price for crude is going to trash the European, Chinese and Japanese economies, whereas ours would merely be damaged.

If this guy is right, and frankly I doubt it, it would be a relatively small price to pay for the realignment which would ultimately result.

Is he trying to talk us into this, or what?

* snicker *

[alloysteel]

Someday, the price of crude oil may be $150 a barrel.

But not in the near future. When oil reaches $80-100 per barrel, it shall be amazing how many sources of oil suddenly appear, and once that spigot is opened, the threat of an oil embargo against the US becomes moot.

Oil is a fungible commodity, and does not care who uses it. There are, already, a number of substitute sources that could come on line and be up to speed rapidly, with a significant number of additional sources being added over a period of a year or two afterward. Once Iran is removed as a source, it may have extreme difficulty recovering its old markets without deeply discounting their product to gain market share back.

The US can make a synthetic substitute (from turkey offal) for crude petroleum right now, and at a cost highly competitive around $60 a barrel. At $80 a barrel, there will be great incentive to apply recently developed technology to recovery of petroleum from oil shale, coal deposits, and reformation of natural gas into many of the lighter fractions of petroleum.

And there is an enormously abundant source of natural gas, from harvest of Methane Hydrate from the ocean floor.

http://www.ncseonline.org/NLE/CRSreports/energy/eng-46.cfm?&CFID=1919958&CFTOKEN=24414047

[Billthedrill]

Hmm...$150/gal to drop the hammer on a few of those arrogant SOB's? There must be a negative side to this...

[BenLurkin]

Good point!