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Mark Steyn: Russia is dying and Islamists will grab parts of the carcass
The Australian ^ | October 31, 2005 | Mark Steyn

Posted on 10/30/2005 11:04:36 AM PST by Dundee

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To: uscabjd

more abortions than births. poverty. alcoholism. abysmal state run health care. only about 15% of the population approaching child bearing age are "healthy"


51 posted on 10/30/2005 3:14:38 PM PST by silverleaf (Fasten your seat belts- it's going to be a BUMPY ride.)
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To: GarySpFc

Is Steyn out to become the new Nyquest?


52 posted on 10/30/2005 4:13:35 PM PST by jb6 (The Atheist/Pagan mind, a quandary wrapped in egoism and served with a side order of self importance)
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To: Mr. Mojo; GarySpFc; RusIvan
"Russia is literally dying. From a population peak in 1992 of 148 million, it will be down to below 130 million by 2015 and thereafter dropping to perhaps 50 or 60 million by the end of the century."

Explain to me, please, how he has a good grasp. Outside of ignoring a surge in births that has been going on for the past 5 years (guess it doesn't fit his argument to well), how does he come up with a number of 130 million? It's not even straight line projections. Yes, the Russian population has fallen off from 148 to 143 million this year, that's a fall of 5 million in 13 years but yet Steyn predicts a drop of 13 million in 9 more years? Sorry that alone doesn't pass the smell test.

Furthermore, the main reason for the drop off and the reason the average lifespan has now rebounded is that with the collapse of the health system in the 1990s, the WW2 generation started a massive die off, which is now ending. Furthermore, immigration was also a major factor, but with a rebounding economy and new opportunities, that is also changing. Furthermore, there is an influx from Ukraine, Belaruss, Africa and Central Asia.

53 posted on 10/30/2005 4:30:52 PM PST by jb6 (The Atheist/Pagan mind, a quandary wrapped in egoism and served with a side order of self importance)
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To: Mr. Mojo
"Russia's got the lot: an African-level AIDS crisis and an Islamist separatist movement sitting on top of the biggest pile of nukes on the planet."

What? Steyn is a bold faced liar and propagandist. The Kanook needs to get out of the cold, it's frosted his brain.

From the Christian Science Monitor:

Reluctantly, Russia confronts AIDS About 1 million Russians are estimated to be HIV positive - but officials have been slow to boost funding.

So, that's 1 in 143 or about .6%, less then 1% has HIV and he compares this to Africa which has nations with upto 40% infection rates?

Steyn would make any 'journalist' on CBS, ABC or CNN proud.

54 posted on 10/30/2005 4:41:46 PM PST by jb6 (The Atheist/Pagan mind, a quandary wrapped in egoism and served with a side order of self importance)
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To: RaceBannon; Cacique

ping


55 posted on 10/30/2005 4:42:45 PM PST by nutmeg ("We're going to take things away from you on behalf of the common good." - Hillary Clinton 6/28/04)
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To: GarySpFc; RusIvan; iva

mailbox@steynonline.com for comments on his commentary


56 posted on 10/30/2005 4:43:48 PM PST by jb6 (The Atheist/Pagan mind, a quandary wrapped in egoism and served with a side order of self importance)
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To: Motherbear
What good has that done Russia...yet?

Paid off most of their foreign debts, allowed for lower government taxes which has attracted a large number of heavy industries over the past 5 years which has employeed people while allowing those people to keep the majority of their pay checks (13% flat tax on income, killed sales tax, 1/3 off VAT, 1/2 off payroll, 24% corporate rate, 14% corporate rate for high tech). Allowed pensions to go up 200%, allowed all government employees to be paid on time and paid for arrears.

Other then that, it's done absolutely nothing. Why what's your point?

57 posted on 10/30/2005 4:46:59 PM PST by jb6 (The Atheist/Pagan mind, a quandary wrapped in egoism and served with a side order of self importance)
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To: Do not dub me shapka broham

You do realize that Kasparov has some 3% of the population backing him, none of the other opposition parties would ally themselves with him and his entire plan for the nation of Russia is summed up in him giving interviews for Western media name calling Putin and telling the West how dumb Russians are. Except for the left intelligencia (and a small percentage of them at that) no one supports him. Khodorkovsky has a better pull, at 4% then Kasparov and he's in jail.


58 posted on 10/30/2005 4:49:06 PM PST by jb6 (The Atheist/Pagan mind, a quandary wrapped in egoism and served with a side order of self importance)
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To: GSlob
"Putin's tirade to Bush that the US was flooding Russia with substandard chicken drumsticks and keeping the best ones for itself." But it is the old Russian practice: in his "Domostroi" manual on household management (written around 1550s) arch-priest Sylvester, confessor to Ivan the Terrible, recommended that the food which started spoiling was to be given as alms to the poor and the needy, for it would be good for the food owner's soul and good enough for the recipients. So what's wrong with it ????

You know bloody well that what this is is a build up of a case for a protectionist measure to defend Russian chicken farms on the domestic market. Would help if we did some of this ourselves, since the US is practically a net food importer at this point.

59 posted on 10/30/2005 4:50:59 PM PST by jb6 (The Atheist/Pagan mind, a quandary wrapped in egoism and served with a side order of self importance)
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To: FormerLib
The West can't even stop itself when it's own lives are on the line:

Two examples: WE continue to support the House of Saud and give them a free ride, even when they are sponsoring the very people who are killing us, when their college students blow up our soldiers.

London continues to support Islamics, as long as they go somewhere else to kill Christians, Jews and Hindus and then acts dumb founded when they bend the English over also.

60 posted on 10/30/2005 4:55:54 PM PST by jb6 (The Atheist/Pagan mind, a quandary wrapped in egoism and served with a side order of self importance)
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To: Juliusz
Already every 6th citizen of Russian Federation is muslim. On top of that Russian Orthodox Church is still getting weaker. Can we expect soon new islamic republic?

There are 10 million Muslims in Russia, a population of 143 million, now tell me again how the 1 in 6 was gotten? I'm waiting. Oh and they breed about as fast as everyone else. That's why the total of Chechens has fallen from 900,000 to 650,000.

61 posted on 10/30/2005 4:57:35 PM PST by jb6 (The Atheist/Pagan mind, a quandary wrapped in egoism and served with a side order of self importance)
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To: jb6; MikeinIraq
It doesn't matter.

No one realistically expects Kasparov to win, or even garner a substantial portion of the vote.

He will be crushed, and not even his most enthusiastic supporters-or even he himself-is insinuating otherwise.

Russians are still in thrall to a profoundly complacent, apathetic mindset.

That brief efflorescence of freedom that occurred in 1991-under Boris Yeltsin-was evanescent.

NTV is gone, the last independent reporter for Izvestiya is gone, and there are virtually no remaining broad-based channels for dissent.

The Russians have returned to the time of Samizdat, and subterranean outlets used by refuseniks to voice dissent from the diktats of the ruling regime.

Whether or not Khasnayov, or Kasparov, or Yavlinsky, or any other opposition leader is properly equipped to do battle with the forces of revanchism and blind allegiance to Putin's autocratic tendencies-and I'm not disputing your assertion that they aren't-is entirely beside the point.

People today-even ex-KGB agents such as Putin-love to valorize the achievements of heroic figures like Solzhenitsyn, Sharansky, Sakharov, Nureyev; cultural, religious, and political dissidents all.

They hail the same individuals that were mercilessly persecuted by their predecessors.

Let me tell you, this idea that they were supported by a silent majority of Russians is complete and utter bunkum.

They were not only a numerical minority, but they were a minority in terms of opinion.

Most people living in the Soviet Union-unfortunately-were reconciled to their misery, lest they provoke an even more harsh reality at the hands of the USSR's internal security apparatus.

The Mitrokhin Archive is illustrative in this regard.

It explores just how successful the KGB-domestic thought police-and FCD-international branch-were in eradicating political opposition with ruthless efficacy.

The sad truth is that, prior to Glastnost and Perestroika-and the arrival of Gorbachev on center stage-Yuri Andropov had almost completely eliminated any significant internal dissent, save for a few implacable religious groups, such as the Jehovah's Witnesses.

This is a perpetual struggle, in which men like Kasparov will ALWAYS be in the distinct minority.

That does not make their fight any less worthy, or mean that their efforts should be denigrated.

62 posted on 10/30/2005 5:10:27 PM PST by Do not dub me shapka broham
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To: Dundee

Steyn is right

Christians and Jews...and maybe Sikhs too

need to get down baby and start getting some broods going

I'd hate to see the Moon Rockies whip us like this.

We can do better!

Come on people!

Big Families, Lotsa Children!

it's a tough job...we're counting on ya'll


63 posted on 10/30/2005 5:13:10 PM PST by wardaddy (It's Manana Again in America!)
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To: wardaddy
This is the one area where that lunatic Vladimir Zhironovsky had the right idea!
64 posted on 10/30/2005 5:17:37 PM PST by Do not dub me shapka broham
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To: Do not dub me shapka broham

I think the right folks in the West. (solid responsible conservatives)

....need to have a large families.

and now.


65 posted on 10/30/2005 5:19:41 PM PST by wardaddy (It's Manana Again in America!)
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To: wardaddy
Also:

-Ban Wahhabi prison/military chaplains.

-Make foreign aid to countries like Tanzania, Kenya, Rwanda, Uganda, etc., contingent upon their willingness to restrain the manifestations of radical Islam, and their ability to close Saudi-financed madrassas.

-Demand that Qatar, the UAE, Kuwait, i.e. our client states in the Gulf, immediately allow Christian missionaries to proselytize in their countries.

-Start moving to (covertly) carve up Saudi Arabia, e.g. return the Hijaz to the Hashemites, threaten-in private-to give the Shia in the oil-rich regions of that country military support for any insurgency they're willing to undertake, UNLESS King Abdullah starts catering to our demands...

-Start encouraging the Kurds in Syria to assert their rights, and give their brethren in Iraqi Kurdistan, the peshmergas, carte blanche to assist them.

-Give the Azeris, Kurds, and Afghan refugees the equipment they need to start fomenting trouble for the IRI, before those mad mullahs finally go on line with those nuclear warheads.

66 posted on 10/30/2005 5:29:36 PM PST by Do not dub me shapka broham
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To: Lx
If they sell the warhead, the Islamonazis can just smuggle it in a ship.

And the moment it explodes we'll gather up the uranium isotopes and track it down (like a finger print) back to the reactor that created it.

67 posted on 10/30/2005 5:38:07 PM PST by jb6 (The Atheist/Pagan mind, a quandary wrapped in egoism and served with a side order of self importance)
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To: uscabjd

They are losing their rate of growth in population due to ABORTION.

When you kill one child -- you are killing all the children she and he were meant to have, too.


68 posted on 10/30/2005 5:56:06 PM PST by victim soul
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To: victim soul

yep...and we are almost as bad here


69 posted on 10/30/2005 5:57:18 PM PST by wardaddy (It's Manana Again in America!)
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To: Do not dub me shapka broham
Russians are still in thrall to a profoundly complacent, apathetic mindset. That brief efflorescence of freedom that occurred in 1991-under Boris Yeltsin-was evanescent

That statement is almost to funny. What happened under Yeltsin was a small clique of local billionaires and foreign interest raping Russia. Most of the population decline, economic collapse (there was very little real growth as the banking collapse of 98 showed and killed Yeltsin's regime), infrastructural theft and massive debt occurred under Yeltsin. All those liberal parties were the kings of the Duma from 1991-1998.

The Russian people got tired of being raped, poor, miserable and constantly told how dumb they were by the Liberal intelligentsia of Yablaka, SRS, etc and decided to show them where the door was. Good for them.

Oh and as far as Yeltsin and freedom...you mean the same Yeltsin who in 1993 massacred 500 members of parliament and their staffs in the Duma when they refused to sell off Russian assets directly to the Oligarchs and Western special interests (like the chums that Clinton sent over there)? Some freedom....surround the legislature and butcher it with tanks.

70 posted on 10/30/2005 5:58:32 PM PST by jb6 (The Atheist/Pagan mind, a quandary wrapped in egoism and served with a side order of self importance)
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To: Dundee
70 per cent of pregnancies are aborted

that is abominable

71 posted on 10/30/2005 5:58:57 PM PST by wardaddy (It's Manana Again in America!)
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To: Do not dub me shapka broham
NTV is gone, the last independent reporter for Izvestiya is gone, and there are virtually no remaining broad-based channels for dissent.

The Russian government owns one, ONE, television station out of 7 national stations and we're not even going to count the thousands of newspapers.

72 posted on 10/30/2005 5:59:43 PM PST by jb6 (The Atheist/Pagan mind, a quandary wrapped in egoism and served with a side order of self importance)
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To: Do not dub me shapka broham
This is a perpetual struggle, in which men like Kasparov will ALWAYS be in the distinct minority.

Good, since he is much closer to Gore or Kerry then to Bush.

73 posted on 10/30/2005 6:00:25 PM PST by jb6 (The Atheist/Pagan mind, a quandary wrapped in egoism and served with a side order of self importance)
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To: wardaddy

Abortion after 12 weeks is against the law and there is a massive push by the Church, the nationalists and conservatives to end it period. Also the number of abortions have actually been declining from around 80-90% to 70% and dropping.


74 posted on 10/30/2005 6:03:12 PM PST by jb6 (The Atheist/Pagan mind, a quandary wrapped in egoism and served with a side order of self importance)
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To: jb6
Oh and as far as Yeltsin and freedom...you mean the same Yeltsin who in 1993 massacred 500 members of parliament and their staffs in the Duma when they refused to sell off Russian assets directly to the Oligarchs and Western special interests (like the chums that Clinton sent over there)? Some freedom....surround the legislature and butcher it with tanks.

You choose to believe what you want to.


75 posted on 10/30/2005 6:04:55 PM PST by Do not dub me shapka broham
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To: MikeinIraq
The trouble is, they may not have that much time old boy.

L

76 posted on 10/30/2005 6:10:42 PM PST by Lurker (If you don't want an Originalist nominated to the SCOTUS, I don't give a damn what you think.)
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To: uscabjd

It seems to me that the reason why goes beyond what Mr. Steyn was barking about. You'd think that trend would reverse a bit. Perhaps some more muslim regions in Russia and parts of Siberia will actually break away from the federation. The remainder of Russia might even be better off as a result.


77 posted on 10/30/2005 6:18:21 PM PST by dr_who_2
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Comment #78 Removed by Moderator

To: Pittsburg Phil

I'll bet you that Russians are more religious now than at any time in the previous century.


79 posted on 10/30/2005 6:19:35 PM PST by dr_who_2
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To: Dundee
...a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma. Today's has come unwrapped: it's a crisis in a disaster inside a catastrophe.

Would this be something similar to a turduckin?

80 posted on 10/30/2005 6:24:27 PM PST by Ramcat (Thank You American Veterans)
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To: ValenB4; anonymoussierra; zagor-te-nej; Freelance Warrior; kedr; Sober 4 Today; BrooklynGOP; ...

ping


81 posted on 10/30/2005 6:44:18 PM PST by jb6 (The Atheist/Pagan mind, a quandary wrapped in egoism and served with a side order of self importance)
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To: Motherbear

There are 1 million HIV cases in Russia, and that's according to outside organizations. Secondly, alcoholism by who's standards (not to deny that there is a high real level of alcoholism) but the definition in America is now what? 3 drinks in a row, if I recall correctly, or was it 4? Well ain't that dandy. Go read up on how much the founding fathers drank and tell me by our modern standards that they aren't alcoholics.


82 posted on 10/30/2005 6:47:05 PM PST by jb6 (The Atheist/Pagan mind, a quandary wrapped in egoism and served with a side order of self importance)
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To: Lurker

we shall see...

I will see....


83 posted on 10/30/2005 6:50:54 PM PST by MikefromOhio
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To: Mr. Mojo
aren't you tired to write just bad things about Russia and to be happy when you read any trash article from countless russofob?
84 posted on 10/30/2005 7:01:07 PM PST by mm77
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To: jb6; GarySpFc; sergey1973; RusIvan; All

thank you"jb6"
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
“This eto fore situation is much controversial; eto problem with new jobs; with new opportunity of young people; fore I can speak off is dim but not pessimistic. There is many work but few of young ones want to work. Russian youngster eto my country young ones me included know well what is going on; fore we have different approach of life. There has to be strong economic changes in our sphere of Eastern Europe. Stupidity of history and bad feelings cloud people understanding and opportunities that is in front of us. We Slavic people just can’t get in agreement of helping each other. Eto in uno pride and arrogance comes in way, Eastern Europe can be power eto fore ambitions and stupidity and hate blocks this. I can write so much you know well, eto fore we are where we have decided ino fore is nowhere. Absolute misunderstanding of facts and history, humanity will run its own way.”
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


85 posted on 10/30/2005 7:03:01 PM PST by anonymoussierra ("Ephesians 2:8-9 For by grace you are saved through faith, and this is not of yourselves")
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To: starfish923

BRAVO!

Thank you


86 posted on 10/30/2005 7:07:47 PM PST by mm77
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To: jb6
Explain to me, please, how he has a good grasp. Outside of ignoring a surge in births that has been going on for the past 5 years...

Steyn isn't making this stuff up. Steyn isn't making the predictions. He is citing figures that are 'out there' and have been out there for quite some time. Here's more info (from Rand):

Deaths among working-age males have contributed most to declining life expectancy. A 20-year-old male in Russia now has only a 1 in 2 chance of living to age 60, while one in the United States has a 9 in 10 chance. Russian male life expectancy is now 13 years less than that for Russian females-one of the largest differences by sex in the world. Male life expectancy in Russia is now below that in Guatemala, Indonesia, Iraq, Mexico, Morocco, and the Philippines.

Deaths due to violence, injuries, and other nonnatural causes have contributed heavily to high working-age male mortality. Many of these deaths are alcohol related, and trends in Russian male mortality and alcohol consumption have paralleled each other throughout the past two decades.

Link

Here's another. This one is from 1994.

Climb in Russia's death rate sets off population implosion

Snippet: The decline in Russia's population began in 1991, when deaths exceeded births by 207,000. That year, according to Labor Ministry statistics, fewer than 40 of the country's 79 regional districts registered more deaths than births. But in 1992 the figure was put at 44 districts, and by last year 68 districts were losing population. Today there are only 6 districts in Russia that continue to grow, all with historically high birth rates.

And he didn't 'ignore'--Steyn wrote this: True, there are parts of Russia that are exceptions to these malign trends. Can you guess which regions they are? They start with a "Mu" and end with a "slim".

87 posted on 10/30/2005 7:11:11 PM PST by elli1
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To: Juliusz
You should read some artiles not like this and you will esure yourself against stupid posts REMEMBER! 95% of Russia are Cristian's!!! 90% of Russia are Russians!
88 posted on 10/30/2005 7:14:35 PM PST by mm77
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To: victim soul
They are losing their rate of growth in population due to ABORTION

How do you figure Italy--where abortion is illegal & which has a lower fertility rate (1.2) than even Russia (1.4)?

89 posted on 10/30/2005 7:15:57 PM PST by elli1
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To: elli1
He is citing figures that are 'out there'

The few figures that he does site are usually from the mid to early 90s. (his claim of an African HIV rate is ludicrous and a plain lie, 1 million HIV cases by outside agencies, that's less then 1% vs 30-40% in Africa...yup "real" numbers there)

90 posted on 10/30/2005 7:18:46 PM PST by jb6 (The Atheist/Pagan mind, a quandary wrapped in egoism and served with a side order of self importance)
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To: elli1
True, there are parts of Russia that are exceptions to these malign trends. Can you guess which regions they are? They start with a "Mu" and end with a "slim".

Or they are called Moscow (10% of the population), St. Petersburg, Volgagrad, Vladikovkaz, Rostov, Krasnagar, Nizni Novgorad (where Intel and AT&T just openned huge R&D centers that they first closed here in America), Vladivostok, etc. Steyn is full of it.

91 posted on 10/30/2005 7:20:50 PM PST by jb6 (The Atheist/Pagan mind, a quandary wrapped in egoism and served with a side order of self importance)
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To: elli1
From your article:

"A decline in life expectancy this dramatic has never happened in the postwar world.

And yet, go check the out there info on CIA World Fact Book, the average life expectancy has been climbing for several years now.

92 posted on 10/30/2005 7:25:05 PM PST by jb6 (The Atheist/Pagan mind, a quandary wrapped in egoism and served with a side order of self importance)
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To: rdcorso
"I just watched a show on National Geographic about Russian women who marry American men and move to America.The women who were interviewed had nothing good to say about Russian men.The Russian men were called drunks,mamma's boys and bums who weren't looking for a wife but someone to take the place of their mother.I was surprised at the number of women who were willing to leave everything behind to marry an American who was usually twenty to twenty five years older than her."

Mostly very poor countryside women without future and education want to marry American men then divorce and getting aliments it's happened everywhere and after that they say ohhh why did we move to USA....
93 posted on 10/30/2005 7:29:24 PM PST by mm77
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To: dr_who_2

Why would Siberia break away, and how would this make Russia better off? Would Siberia become its own country? Lastly, are there parts of Russia that are MAJORITY muslim? Thanks


94 posted on 10/30/2005 7:31:15 PM PST by uscabjd ( a)
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To: driftless
"I tend to agree. I love Steyn and he is right that many things in Russia are bad and getting worse. But things are simultaneously getting better in other areas. Obviously many Russkies are still in shock over the death of communism and there appears to be a tremendous loss of confidence in their country. But that trend might change as the country gets richer and continues to interact with the western countries. I agree, don't count out Russia yet."

Russian ppl are working and nobody in shock that communism failed I will even tell you that during communism regime ppl were modern and had interesting life's. Listen In Russia we think that if writers like this waked up from the grave to write their BS it is just means that we are leaving batter and We feel it on our life. Many ppl are coming mostly Russians from former Soviet Republics to Russia and in this year Russia got 30 000 coming ppl that isnt big amount but it is the giggest for last years and tendentions are good.
95 posted on 10/30/2005 7:39:14 PM PST by mm77
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To: jb6

The few figures that he does site are usually from the mid to early 90s.

Not true. October 21, 2005 article posted here at FR:

Link

96 posted on 10/30/2005 7:45:34 PM PST by elli1
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To: Motherbear
Yes, things look great compared to what they were, but there is still a feeling of hopelessness among many of the Russian people. THAT is my point. If alcoholism won't kill them, AIDS just might.
Read German press, Russian ppl dropped to drink! OMG You are still on the same place I am now in the USA and I wanna tell you that Russian guys never drink so much in night clubs and girls are not so cheap and awfully drunk :(
97 posted on 10/30/2005 7:59:28 PM PST by mm77
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To: jb6
his claim of an African HIV rate is ludicrous and a plain lie...

He didn't say that. Steyn said "an African-level AIDS crisis".

From 12/22/04:The HIV epidemic is rising faster in the Russian Federation than anywhere else in the world. New reported diagnoses have almost doubled annually since 1998...

Source

98 posted on 10/30/2005 8:01:45 PM PST by elli1
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To: elli1
He didn't say that. Steyn said "an African-level AIDS crisis".

And what exctly does that mean if not a level of AIDS like that of Africa...except its not.

99 posted on 10/30/2005 8:03:53 PM PST by jb6 (The Atheist/Pagan mind, a quandary wrapped in egoism and served with a side order of self importance)
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To: jb6
October 11, 2005 According to a report, average life expectancy in Russia is now 12 years less than in the United States and other developed countries, and the rate of infant mortality is 1.5-2 times as high.

The average life expectancy for women in Russia is 72.3 years, whereas the figure for men - 58.9 years - is significantly lower.

Source

100 posted on 10/30/2005 8:06:41 PM PST by elli1
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