Posted on 11/02/2005 5:44:53 PM PST by No Longer Free State
US planning for Cuba's "transition" after the demise of Fidel Castro has entered a new stage, with a special office for reconstruction inside the US State Department preparing for the "day after", when Washington will try to back a democratic government in Havana.
The inter-agency effort, which also involves the Defense Department, recognises that the Cuba transition may not go peacefully and that the US may have to launch a nation-building exercise.
Caleb McCarry, the Cuba transition co-ordinator, is working on the project within the Office for Reconstruction and Stabilization, which was established by the Bush administration to prevent and prepare for post-conflict situations.
Every six months, the National Intelligence Council revises a secret watchlist of 25 countries in which instability could require US intervention. The reconstruction office, headed by Carlos Pascual - a Cuba-born former ambassador - was focused on Sudan, Haiti, Congo and Nepal. In a controversial move, Cuba was added to the list.
The US Institute of Peace, funded by Congress to work on conflict management, declined to lend its expertise to the Cuba project. "This was an exercise in destabilisation, not stabilisation," said one person involved.
Mr McCarry acknowledges wearing two hats: to help a post-Castro Cuba establish a democratic government and market economy, and to hasten that transition.
Condoleezza Rice, secretary of state, appointed Mr McCarry in July. His post was recommended by the Commission for Assistance to a Free Cuba, which she noted was created by President George W. Bush "to accelerate the demise of Castro's tyranny".
The commission declared in its May 2004 report that it "sought a more proactive, integrated and disciplined approach to undermine the survival strategies of the Castro regime and contribute to conditions that will help the Cuban people hasten the dictatorship's end".
Wholesale engagement is envisaged post-Castro, including immediate assistance so that "schools are kept open and provided with new instructional material and staff", food and medical aid is distributed, and pensions are paid.
Mr McCarry told the FT that last year's tightening of the US economic embargo - such as restrictions on visits to Cuba by Cuban-Americans, and a curbing of remittances - had cost the Castro regime an estimated Dollars 500m (Euros 417m, Pounds 283m) in lost income.
Human Rights Watch last month condemned the travel restrictions imposed by both Cuba and the US, saying: "Both countries are sacrificing people's freedom of movement to promote dead-end policies." Mr McCarry declined to comment on his work in the Office for Reconstruction and Stabilization, except to say that it would be "thoughtful and respectful of the Cuban people and their wish to be free".
"The transition genie is out of the bottle," he said, referring to opposition activities inside Cuba, and a "broad consensus" reached with the exiled community. "They are the ones to define a democratic future for Cuba."
Officials say the US would not "accept" a handover of power from Mr Castro, who is 79, to his brother Raul, aged 74. While it is not clear what the US position means, Mr McCarry stressed the US would not "impose" its help.
Addressing the Association of the US Army last month, Mr Pascual indicated his co-operation with the military was at an early stage. He said his strategic planning was aimed at understanding "how we would manage that transition process between Fidel's death and a democratic Cuba, because we know that at some point, that is going to happen".
Analysts said the military, worried about a mass exodus of Cuban refugees, was keen to understand the administration's plans for what is called "the day after".
But they also question whether the White House is really committed to the task, noting the limited budgets of both Mr Pascual and Mr McCarry.
Some suspect Mr Bush drew attention to the issue in 2004 with an eye on securing votes in Florida from Cuban exiles. "The US has a history of not being very successful in achieving desired outcomes in Cuba," cautioned Daniel Erikson, analyst with the Inter-American Dialogue think-tank.
A US military officer said: "The truth is that nobody, including anyone on the island, knows what will happen during a transition. It's a little like trying to figure out how many angels can dance on the head of a pin."
Is the recorders [in exile] office ready?
I've always wondered why administrations following Kennedy felt constrained by his agreement not to take out Castro. We could have saved the Cuban people decades of misery.
That's pretty optimistic.
Carter and Castro checking out about the same time would be wonderful.
Obviously, Castro didn't feel constrained not to take out JFK.
We have a hostile totalitarian regime less than 100 miles from the United States -- why aren't we doing more to protect American security.
The Cuban people should have taken him out. It's there country.
Hope? It'll be a disaster...civil war is all but guranteed. There are simply too many soldiers and thugs in Cuba who would be thrown onto the street if the socialists were thrown out, and they're going to fight with whatever weapons they have. I'm sure we'll eventually get them all, but it will be extremely messy in the shorter term. The only real upside is that when we finally decide to send in our troops for peacekeeping duties, the soldiers will be a heck of a lot more confortable than they are in Iraq. Spending a tour on a tropical island isn't exactly a negative thing :)
What I'm curious to see is how they resolve all of the land claim disputes that are sure to arise. There are residences and properties that may have changed hands a dozen times since Castro took over...who decides their legitimate ownership?
Cuba Libra!
We've got to get in there before Hugo Chavez, you know he's reading the same tea leaves and nothing's more dangerous than a commie with money.
Why wait?
..break out the exploding cigars...
Jack Kennedy was a coward who betrayed the
Cubans who tried to free their country from
Castro and his thugs, torturers & murderers
like Che Guevara. He set them up, and then
left them to be slaughtered, instead of
supporting them. John Fitzgerald Kennedy
was a coward and a betrayer...it runs in
the family...just like using and abusing women.
The only person who could ever have overthrown Fidel is his brother and Raoul is the heir apparent.
When Fidel dies, Raoul will unleash an iron fist crack down hard, and with bloodshed to preserve his rule.
Anyone farmiliar with the brother knows he is even more of a hardliner then Fidel, only with a smaller ego and far less arrogance, but sadistic and cruel never the less.
Waiting can be beneficial. Look at what came of waiting Arafat out. He was not martyred and died an utter failure that put forth policy that only brought his people death destruction and despair.
Castro is a peer on that note. Let him die the failure he is and then Cuba can move forward.
"Raoul will unleash an iron fist crack down hard"
The cubans will never accept such a thing.
He is also, only a couple of years in age difference
from Fidel...his reign, even if he continues, or is
even harsher than Fidels, will be a very short one.
The old man with the scythe, is standing at the
foot of *his* deathbed as well. No matter *how*
successful he may be at "keeping control".
Yep! Just look at what Soros has done.
Let's hope that the day Castro dies, there will be millions dancing in the streets of Havana.
His brother will probably try to keep it quiet in an effort to consolidate power but the million man march in Havana would be a wonderful sight.
The US should obviously have detailed plans for this day (not the least of which should be to get the message out as soon as possible.)
And Hugo Chavez will be invited to intervene by the remnants of Castro's government.
If you believe that, I have the most wonderfull bridge in brooklyn that you must buy.
They have dealt with it for decades.
One tincan dictator for another, with more brains, ain't going to make much difference.
Besides what else can they do, other then get shot?
Yes, but what are the plans of succession after him?
I doubt either Castro, is that short term planned.
Raul has the small ego and more humility.....he is also much smarter.
If we are lucky, we have to hope that everything that castro and his brother are, is wrong, incorrect, and that they are in fact totally different and kind, which means we have to lie to ourselves for hope.
I don't know who will succeed Raul, but considering how vicious (think fidel as to saddam hussein and then Raul to saddam sons) Raul is, what makes you think he won't just try and eliminate everybody for his successor?
"Dead-end" policies. Yeah. I like the sound of the words.
Such "leaders", rule using a cult of personality.
And they don't like letiing underlings become
too popular, for fear that they would end up
losing power, the same way they got it. Remember
Castro did a "uriah Heep" on Che Guevara, not
because he coveted Che's wife, but bercause he
felt Che was gettin a little too powerful and
a little too loose cannon-ish, so off he was sent,
into the South American jungle. Castro may trust
his brother, but i doubt theres anyone else below
him, with the "stature" to take over and contnue
to keep Cuba under their thumb.
Actually, i think we should wait until they
cry "uncle", before we let the first 'aid plane"
land in Havana. making sure none from Vensuala
do as well, or Vensualan ships dock there. as
a start. The Castro Communist regime, must be
thorougly discredited in the eyes of all Cubans
or there will be great resistance. Even Castros
regime supporters must be brought to realise
that Casros way is dead..that it failed, long
before Castro even died...as it has..Cubas economy
is walking dead..running on borrowed time, and
banked on Castros persona..without him it can
only collapse. Those banking on his promises now..
will only lose everything they have not pulled out
of Cuba beforehand.
'Human Rights Watch' are nothing more than
socialist anti-humanity lying scum front.
I am pleased when i hear that one or more
of those vile servants of craven devolution,
gets themselves whacked.
Let's invade them now.
Set them freee!!!!
I agree that it's pretty optimistic/ I do believe there is a fellow in Venezuela named Chavez that would like nothing more than to make Cuba a colony of Venezuela, and that the apparatus for this is already being planned for and put in place. Of course this pretty much depends on Chavez being able to hang onto power in Venezuela.
Yes sir they have dealt with it for decades and have come to the conclusion that so long as Castro is around there can be no changes made. People will have a different outlook once he is gone. We see that same thing in Israel today. More progress has been made there since Arafat died than in the decade preceeding his death.
I would offer that the USA could end the "dry foot" policy the day castro dies and that news could push the people to take action when that does happen.
Since castro fell down he has not been so public as he was before it. I think his time is near.
"Besides what else can they do, other then get shot?"
They can end living in fear and take the same attitude Iraqis are taking. That being....they cannot kill all of us. Stand tall and fight BACK.
It took US intervention before IRAQ did fight back.
That said, Raul may not kill them all, but more then enough.
All he has to do is follow the china model of fear and control.
Chairman Mao is dead, but they still execute folks there and bill the family for the bullet.
I can name at least several countries where regimes that suceeded the previous, kept or even worsened policies on their own people and surivived.
Cuba won't be the anomaly to history.
"It took US intervention before IRAQ did fight back."
Not true, think back to 1993. A more properly stated version of what I think you actually mean ( correct me if I am worng) would be to say....It took the USA intervention for them to succeed.
"That said, Raul may not kill them all, but more then enough."
They may kill him too or simply oust him....time will tell.
"I can name at least several countries where regimes that suceeded the previous, kept or even worsened policies on their own people and surivived."
I can name several countries that saw regime changes that made leaps and bounds of progress. Remember the USSR? Think about Ukraine for a minute. Look at Lebanon.
Would you call these examples anomolies? Seems to me that many examples on both sides exist and I make the choice of glass half full while you make the choice of glass half empty.
Who knows who Raul is grooming (family members?).
History is littered with brutal regimes that governed by cults of personality....and then had successive regimes that were just as brutal if not more so (see China, soviet union, eastern europe, latin america, etc).
I doubt that Cuba will be much different, it will take US intervention or something extraordinary to make sure the cuban nightmare ends.....without vicious bloodshed by another madman.
You got it right, the Kurds fought back.
The Kurds were crushed and lucky not to be exterminated.
They may kill him too or simply oust him....time will tell.
I would rather they kill him now, I see him as another Kin Jong il type (only as a brother not son) capable as much brutality, and like Fidel, a curse by not dying.
I can name several countries that saw regime changes that made leaps and bounds of progress. Remember the USSR? Think about Ukraine for a minute. Look at Lebanon.
The USSR is a perfect example, It took 70 plus years for that sick evil regime to fall, going from the cult of personality of Lenin to the depraved madman Stalin.
Castro is lenin, I think Raul is Stalin.
Its hard for me to be optimistic, I really think we need a more pro-active approach to ensure liberty and freedom in Cuba after the death of fidel so as to make sure that the military rule of Raul never starts, lest he cement his rule (I think alot of these crackdowns as of late are for this reason) and then name his successor.
"Castro is lenin, I think Raul is Stalin."
Fair supposition thru example.
I agree that this nation should be proactive for the coming change in leadership there.
Ending dry foot policy could send a message to the people of cuba that they have to stand up and make changes there.
Showing them (like mexico) that they have to stand up before we can help them stay standing.
I think removing the gravy train of just allowing them the dream of fleeing cuba and making it to dry land ( illegaly) will actually empower them to rise up for change when castro dies. If they do not, well that is indeed their fault isn't it?
It's about time...
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