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Report Says Avian Flu Outbreak Could Kill Up to 1.9 Million People
NY Times ^ | November 2, 2005 | GARDINER HARRIS and TIMOTHY WILLIAMS

Posted on 11/02/2005 9:12:05 PM PST by neverdem

WASHINGTON, Nov. 2 - An outbreak of the avian flu virus in the United States could infect one-third of the population and kill as many as 1.9 million people, according to an analysis by the federal government released today.

The report, by the United States Department of Health and Human Services, said that banning large gatherings and imposing quarantines would likely be necessary in order to contain the spread of the H5N1 avian influenza virus if it mutated into a form easily spread by human-to-human contact.

There have been no reported cases of the virus being spread between humans.

The government analysis released today was part of a plan, broadly outlined by President Bush on Tuesday, to confront threats from new outbreaks of flu. The analysis was based on previous flu pandemics in the United States in 1918, 1957 and 1968.

"When a pandemic virus strain emerges, 25 percent to 30 percent of the population could develop the clinical disease and a substantial fraction of those individuals could die," the report stated. "The resources required for such a vigorous containment would almost certainly exceed those available in the affected communities."

The government analysis found that 40 percent of school age children could become sick with the virus, and between 865,000 and 9.9 million people would require hospitalizations - depending on its severity - a number that would threaten to overwhelm the hospital system.

The virus would affect a community for six to eight weeks and likely come in two different waves.

The report warned, however ,that because such viruses quickly mutate, they are difficult to predict.

"The scope and pace of an influenza pandemic may defy accurate prediction," the report said.

(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: District of Columbia
KEYWORDS: avianflu; bioterror; bioterrorism; birdflu; h5n1
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1 posted on 11/02/2005 9:12:07 PM PST by neverdem
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To: Judith Anne; Mother Abigail

ping


2 posted on 11/02/2005 9:13:26 PM PST by neverdem (May you be in heaven a half hour before the devil knows that you're dead.)
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To: neverdem

Ah, the NY Slimes. A day late and a dollar short.

Too bad they don't read FR. It's all right here.


3 posted on 11/02/2005 9:15:55 PM PST by Judith Anne (Thank you St. Jude for favors granted.)
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To: neverdem

Yeah, yeah, yeah....

And global warming will melt the polar icecaps, raising the ocean level, drowning us all next week.

More doom and gloom bullsqueeze from the Birdcage Liner of Record.


4 posted on 11/02/2005 9:17:58 PM PST by clee1 (We use 43 muscles to frown, 17 to smile, and 2 to pull a trigger. I'm lazy and I'm tired of smiling.)
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To: neverdem
Branson Snaps Up 10,000 Courses Of Tamiflu

It's just a scare, nothing to worry about.

5 posted on 11/02/2005 9:18:39 PM PST by blam
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To: El Gato; JudyB1938; Ernest_at_the_Beach; Robert A. Cook, PE; lepton; LadyDoc; jb6; tiamat; PGalt; ..
Flummoxing the Flu (We need many parallel strategies.)

Wrong Prescription (Jumping on avian vaccine spending won’t help matters.)

FReepmail me if you want on or off my health and science ping list. Anyone can post any unrelated link as they see fit.

6 posted on 11/02/2005 9:21:14 PM PST by neverdem (May you be in heaven a half hour before the devil knows that you're dead.)
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To: neverdem

An outbreak of the avian flu virus in the United States could infect one-third of the population and kill as many as 1.9 million people, according to an analysis by the federal government released today.



Yes and monkeys could fly out my a$$ too, but it's not likely.


7 posted on 11/02/2005 9:23:05 PM PST by trubluolyguy (Is it more stupid believe in God, or to be offended by that which you don't believe exists?)
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To: neverdem

Probally kill 1.9 mil in Los Angeles.
Economic dispuption would really damage the country.
Most of the rest of the world would be toast.
The places that are already toast would likly disappear.
Hope I'm wrong.


8 posted on 11/02/2005 9:23:22 PM PST by calljack (Sometimes your worst nightmare is just a start.)
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To: neverdem

Is this the strain the vacinee will protect against or a different one? If its the same im going for a shot tomorrow when im at the college heather center.


9 posted on 11/02/2005 9:24:18 PM PST by RHINO369
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To: neverdem

Wasn't W supposed to give a warning of a flu pandemic yesterday? Did that happen? I got a flu shot. Am I saved?


10 posted on 11/02/2005 9:27:10 PM PST by phantomworker (All roads lead back to Rome.Boldness has genius, power &magic in it.. Begin your dissertation now!)
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To: RHINO369

It's a different one but for various reasons, because of them both, go ahead and get your flu shot this year.


11 posted on 11/02/2005 9:27:42 PM PST by MarMema
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To: neverdem
All this hype about avian flu frankly reminds me of a bit George Carling did a few years back. He's reading the news and reads a story about traffic safety and he says something along the lines of:

"Over the weekend there were a total of 7 accidents reported on local roads which brings the monthly total to 18. The Highway Deptartment says it's expecting a total of 60. YOU'RE NOT TRYING FRIENDS!!!"

12 posted on 11/02/2005 9:28:04 PM PST by Reaganesque
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To: neverdem
"And when you hear of wars and tumults, do not be terrified; for this must first take place, but the end will not be at once." Then he said to them, "Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom; there will be great earthquakes, and in various places famines and pestilences; and there will be terrors and great signs from heaven. But before all this they will--persecute you," (Luke 21)

Any of this stuff sound familiar to anyone else?

13 posted on 11/02/2005 9:28:35 PM PST by TheCrusader ("The frenzy of the Mohammedans has devastated the churches of God" -Pope Urban II, 1097AD)
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One of these days we will get a pandemic flu. They've happened in the past, and they will happen again. Will it be the Avian flu? Maybe. Maybe not. I am thankful the President is taking steps to be prepared just in case.


14 posted on 11/02/2005 9:29:40 PM PST by SmoothTalker
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To: neverdem

I figure if we just wash our hands more often and cook our poultry before we eat it we should do just fine.


15 posted on 11/02/2005 9:30:26 PM PST by R_Kangel ("Liberals are like a broken pencil.......useless with no point.")
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To: TheCrusader

""And when you hear of wars and tumults, do not be terrified; for this must first take place, but the end will not be at once." Then he said to them, "Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom; there will be great earthquakes, and in various places famines and pestilences; and there will be terrors and great signs from heaven. But before all this they will--persecute you," (Luke 21)"

It does but that prophecy from Luke is one of the vaguer ones in the Bible. When in history have we not had wars, earth quakes, plagues, and famines?


16 posted on 11/02/2005 9:31:12 PM PST by SmoothTalker
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To: clee1

Only 1.9 million? That isn't a pandemic!!

How many million die from the flu now? Does this mean we have been having a pandemic going on for decades? Is this in addition to those pandemic numbers?
Or is the WHO just looking for more money so they can live luxurious lives and drive nice SUV's on African safari's?


17 posted on 11/02/2005 9:32:45 PM PST by Forte Runningrock
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To: R_Kangel

That's probably the most realistic things to do: wash hands and cook poultry thoroughly. LOL!


18 posted on 11/02/2005 9:33:29 PM PST by phantomworker (All roads lead back to Rome. Boldness has genius, power &magic in it..Begin your dissertation now!)
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To: trubluolyguy

LOL! You have to wonder why the MSM is pushing this meme so hard.


19 posted on 11/02/2005 9:37:50 PM PST by TheDon (The Democratic Party is the party of TREASON!)
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To: TheCrusader

Yep - sounds familiar - been happening for thousands of years now...


20 posted on 11/02/2005 9:39:21 PM PST by over3Owithabrain
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To: phantomworker; RHINO369

Any shot being given now is for the seasonal flu that is a new combination of strains each year that depends on what emerges in the Far East each year during the late winter to early spring time frame, IIRC. The links in comment 6 review the bird flu situation fairly well.


21 posted on 11/02/2005 9:42:19 PM PST by neverdem (May you be in heaven a half hour before the devil knows that you're dead.)
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To: RHINO369

It's been said that Tammi flu won't do diddly squat against a avian flu pandemic, but foolish people are buying it up anyway, along with flu shots which won't do a thing to protect against this non- existant mutant strain of H51N1.

But what the heck, a good media generated panic sells paper.


22 posted on 11/02/2005 9:42:34 PM PST by Forte Runningrock
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To: clee1

I hear you. Apparently my ancestors survived the 1919 pandemic in Philadelphia. Good genes trump the Old Dingy Media Whore any day.


23 posted on 11/02/2005 9:47:00 PM PST by aliquando (A Scout is T, L, H, F, C, K, O, C, T, B, C, and R.)
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To: Forte Runningrock
"It's been said that Tammi flu won't do diddly squat against a avian flu pandemic, but foolish people are buying it up anyway, along with flu shots which won't do a thing to protect against this non- existant mutant strain of H5N1."

I saw Michael Leavitt say tonight that the mutated (the human-human version) will be related to the H5N1 and Tamiflu would offer some help due to that relationship.

My mom was diagnosed with two different flu viruses at the same time last year.

24 posted on 11/02/2005 9:48:12 PM PST by blam
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To: neverdem

When will the bird flu vaccine be available? LOL?


25 posted on 11/02/2005 9:49:59 PM PST by phantomworker (All roads lead back to Rome. Boldness has genius, power &magic in it..Begin your dissertation now!!)
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To: phantomworker
"Wasn't W supposed to give a warning of a flu pandemic yesterday? Did that happen? I got a flu shot. Am I saved?"

You are saved against the flu's which that flu shot was made to help protect against, but you aren't protected from the avian flu, because there is no vaccine for it.

The reason there is no vaccine against this "pandemic" because the strain doesn't exist yet. There is no pandemic, no killer flu. This is a media generated scare much like global warming. which doesn't exist either. If you really want to be afraid and hide in a bubble your entire life, it's possible we could have a "pandemic" flu or some other virus sweep the planet every year. Wash your hands, stay away from filthy whores and other forms of recreation sex outside of marriage, including unnatural sex and you'll be fine.

26 posted on 11/02/2005 9:52:41 PM PST by Forte Runningrock
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To: Judith Anne
A couple of my former classmates have been researching Avian Influenza for the past 20 years. They have been silently working on Avian Influenza and Coronaviruses. All of a sudden, everyone wants to interview them. They think the MSM is a pain in the rectal region.
27 posted on 11/02/2005 9:53:37 PM PST by vetvetdoug (Shiloh, Corinth, Iuka, Brices Crossroads, Harrisburg, Britton Lane, Holly Springs, Hatchie Bridge,)
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To: neverdem

can we all please ask Jim Rob for a topic link on top, or at least the sidebar?


28 posted on 11/02/2005 9:54:52 PM PST by bitt ("..the very obsession of your public service must be Duty, Honor, Country." Gen. Douglas MacArthur)
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To: TheDon

LOL! You have to wonder why the MSM is pushing this meme so hard.



Because it is more "the sky is falling B.S." one year out from the mid-terms. It's going to get worse before it gets better.


29 posted on 11/02/2005 9:55:45 PM PST by trubluolyguy (Is it more stupid believe in God, or to be offended by that which you don't believe exists?)
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To: Forte Runningrock

A bit reactionist, but it does make sense. LOL!!!!


30 posted on 11/02/2005 9:56:45 PM PST by phantomworker (All roads lead back to Rome. Boldness has genius, power &magic in it..Begin your dissertation now!!)
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To: blam
Who is Micheal Leavitt? I heard from health officials that tammi flu offers ZERO protection.

What it MAY do is help strengthen your immune system by helping your body develop more anti bodies, which MAY give you some help fighting off a virus.
Tammi flu isn't designed to help against the H51 virus, because there aren't any that exist which affect humans.

31 posted on 11/02/2005 10:03:07 PM PST by Forte Runningrock
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To: Forte Runningrock

'But what the heck, a good media generated panic sells paper. '

I am glad the gov't got me to buy all that DUCT tape. THAT was a great investment 2 years ago, but we used it all up on car fixes and pipe leaks....


32 posted on 11/02/2005 10:06:29 PM PST by bitt ("..the very obsession of your public service must be Duty, Honor, Country." Gen. Douglas MacArthur)
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To: Forte Runningrock

btt


33 posted on 11/02/2005 10:07:00 PM PST by Ciexyz (Let us always remember, the Lord is in control.)
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To: Forte Runningrock
Wash your hands, stay away from filthy whores and other forms of recreation sex outside of marriage, including unnatural sex and you'll be fine.

A bit liberatrian, but true. However, now a days, extra marrital sex is becoming the norm. Not with me, btw! Is marriage so cheap now a days!!!! ???? I know a marriage where this seems to be the norm! How odd! How yuckee! Not in my lifetime...not with me,, dude!!

34 posted on 11/02/2005 10:07:23 PM PST by phantomworker (All roads lead back to Rome. Boldness has genius, power &magic in it..Begin your dissertation now!!)
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To: Forte Runningrock

welcome to FR. Sounds like you haven't been reading up on this topic, tho.....


35 posted on 11/02/2005 10:07:35 PM PST by bitt ("..the very obsession of your public service must be Duty, Honor, Country." Gen. Douglas MacArthur)
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To: aliquando
I hear you. Apparently my ancestors survived the 1919 pandemic...

All of us have ancestors that survived the 1919 Pandemic, otherwise we wouldn't be here.

36 posted on 11/02/2005 10:13:44 PM PST by Plutarch
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To: phantomworker

So far, there hasn't been any human infections, it was thought that there may have been in China, but they just aren't sure yet.
The Europeon cases turned out to be false, and the couple reported here turned out false as well.

You can bet that IF a killer strain does develop, which could happen anytime, any year- since the beginning of time- they will add protection for the strain to the flu shot vaccine serum within a year.

They upgrade that vaccine every year to help protect against flu strain mutations. This is nothing new.

This "pandemic" is just a scare which was generated by the W.H.O. in order for them to make themselves seem important, and to suck funds out of UN member nations.

It's better to depend on our own nation's ability to respond and develop a vaccine to any "pandemic" which could possibly develop.
The W.H.O. depends on American labratories anyways.



37 posted on 11/02/2005 10:16:43 PM PST by Forte Runningrock
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To: bitt

Thanks for the welcome. I am well read on this topic, I just get tired of seeing this scare being amplified by MSM.

There is no "pandemic", and no human form of the H51n1 flu virus... yet. It just a "possibility".

It has always been a possibility. The spannish flu which killed millions is an example of what COULD happen, but the possibility of that happening is very slim, but possible- each and every day.

At least we are much better equipped to deal with something like this than we were a decade ago.
It's really not anything to worry too much about, and it is certainly irresponsible of MSM trying to create a scare.
Wash your hands often, especially at work and in public when you use public facilities and you will go a long ways toward protecting yourself from becoming sick from any kind of flu or disease.


38 posted on 11/02/2005 10:28:24 PM PST by Forte Runningrock
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To: Plutarch
Sorry, I should have given more detail. They lived in Philadelphia, which based on my late night memory had one of the higher death rates. In my limited early AM logic that would mean that they had most likely been exposed multiple times and still survived. ( as opposed to someone in Omaha, Neb.)
39 posted on 11/02/2005 10:59:24 PM PST by aliquando (A Scout is T, L, H, F, C, K, O, C, T, B, C, and R.)
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Yeah, and an asteroid crashing into the Earth COULD kill billions.

Just about the same odds as this avian flu killing millions.

To live your life in fear of these things is not only a waste of time and energy, it is just plain pathetic.

When God decides it is your time to go.... You are going to go.

Don't worry; Be happy.


40 posted on 11/02/2005 11:03:12 PM PST by LegendHasIt
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To: neverdem
doom and gloom,

raise taxes, raise gov't

more doom and gloom

more taxes, more government

41 posted on 11/02/2005 11:08:17 PM PST by GeronL (Leftism is the INSANE Cult of the Artificial)
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To: GeronL
Paging Hillary Clinton....Hillary.......remember that "just for the children" federal vaccine purchase program.....?

Yes ...that one....the one that shut down R&D into vaccines and reduced the number of vaccine companies in US from 37 to 3.

Yeah....the birds are coming home to roost now....(no pun intended).

Arkancide for the masses courtesy of Hillary Clinton

42 posted on 11/02/2005 11:40:25 PM PST by spokeshave (A return to unified Democratic government is so unlikely as not to be worth considering)
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To: SmoothTalker
"When in history have we not had wars, earth quakes, plagues, and famines?"

All at the same time, with phenominal deaths and destruction, for prolonged periods of time, and in spades the earth over? Never, that I know of.

But when you take that Biblical statement on the end times by Jesus and couple it with this one in 2 Timothy chap. 3, it makes you sit up and take notice.

"But understand this, that in the last days there will come times of stress. For men will be lovers of self, lovers of money, proud, arrogant, abusive, disobedient to their parents, ungrateful, unholy, inhuman, implacable, slanderers, profligates, fierce, haters of good, treacherous, reckless, swollen with conceit, lovers of pleasure rather than lovers of God, holding the form of religion but denying the power of it---- so these men also oppose the truth, men of corrupt mind and counterfeit faith;" (2Tim ch 3)

43 posted on 11/02/2005 11:53:37 PM PST by TheCrusader ("The frenzy of the Mohammedans has devastated the churches of God" -Pope Urban II, 1097AD)
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To: neverdem; All

I think there may be more than just a superficial concern

http://www.lifeethics.org/www.lifeethics.org/2005/11/thousands-receive-fake-flu-shots.html


44 posted on 11/03/2005 12:53:52 AM PST by hocndoc ( http://www.lifeethics.org Vote For Proposition 2 Nov 8 Defend law, not just marriage.)
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To: Forte Runningrock
Only 1.9 million? That isn't a pandemic!!

I looked up the top 10 things that kill Americans a few years ago and was surprised to see that the flu was something like #6 after heart disease, stroke, cancer, accidents, and diabetes. Lots of people die from the flu virus every year and have for years.

45 posted on 11/03/2005 4:08:24 AM PST by meowmeow (Meow! Meow!)
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To: TheCrusader
"When in history have we not had wars, earth quakes, plagues, and famines?"

All at the same time, with phenominal deaths and destruction, for prolonged periods of time, and in spades the earth over? Never, that I know of.

Then you need to read more history.


46 posted on 11/03/2005 4:13:15 AM PST by meowmeow (Meow! Meow!)
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To: R_Kangel
And the ago old American custom of living and sleeping with our chickens will have to end.

Considering how the MSM loves to scare us sheeples, I'm filing this one with Y2K until something in the realm of reality occurs.

47 posted on 11/03/2005 5:27:01 AM PST by lizma
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To: lizma

LOL, If it's passed from feathers and bird excrement can you imagine how it would then pass from human to human !!!


48 posted on 11/03/2005 6:03:05 AM PST by R_Kangel ("Liberals are like a broken pencil.......useless with no point.")
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To: meowmeow
LOL, ok, sometimes I'm a bit of a pessimist, but even meteorologists and scientists are baffled by severe weather patterns, climactical changes and geological disturbances today, and you can't deny their frequency and record-breaking severity.

There have been over 350,000 deaths from just two recent events, the Indonesian tsunami and the Pakistan earthquake. This does not include the approx. 50,000 deaths in Iran from two recent earthquakes, the recent hurricanes, volcanos, famines and raging wars in Africa. Nor does it include the estimated millions of deaths worldwide from AIDS, (especially in Africa), over the last decade.

And you can't deny that today mankind has the power to destroy the world all by ourselves with warfare, which makes Biblical prophesy nothing to snicker at.

49 posted on 11/03/2005 12:52:01 PM PST by TheCrusader ("The frenzy of the Mohammedans has devastated the churches of God" -Pope Urban II, 1097AD)
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To: TheCrusader
but even meteorologists and scientists are baffled by severe weather patterns, climactical changes and geological disturbances today,

Uh, no, they are not. The recent hurricanes are part of a cycle meteorologists have warned us about for decades. Climate change is not driving the disasters. And geologicial disturbances are now fairly predictable in severity, if not when they will actually occur.

and you can't deny their frequency and record-breaking severity.

Uh, yes, I can. We had frequent hurricanes in the 1940s and 1950s. And have had horrific earthquakes in the past.

What makes these events more catastrophic nowadays is the signficant increase in the number of people living in hazardous areas.

50 posted on 11/03/2005 12:56:20 PM PST by dirtboy (Drool overflowed my buffer...)
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