EXCLUSIVE POLL: Liberals sink (Conservatives now tied in Canada and Ontario!)

Canada.com ^ | 11/03/05 | News report from Global National

[Heartofsong83]

EXCLUSIVE POLL: Liberals sink

Global National

Thursday, November 03, 2005

PM Paul Martin gave his response to the release of the Gomery inquiry Tuesday. (Julie Oliver, Ottawa Citizen)

While Federal NDP leader Jack Layton flirts with the possibility of pushing a Christmas election, an exclusive Global National/Ipsos Reid poll shows the Liberals taking a heavy beating in popularity, dropping seven per cent since the Gomery Report was released Tuesday.

Layton emerged from the NDP's weekly caucus meeting Wednesday warning that if he doesn't like what he hears from Health Minister Ujjal Dosanjh today, the prime minister can forget about continued support from New Democrats in the House of Commons

Asked if that meant sending Canadians to the polls over the holidays, Layton said he wasn't ruling any possibilities in or out.

Meanwhile, latest polling data shows a significant drop in the Liberal's popularity since Tuesday's release of the Gomery Report into Liberal kickbacks in the Sponsorship Scandal:

According to the poll national vote support for each major Federal party current sits at: • 31% for Paul Martin and the Liberals (-7 points) • 30% for Stephen Harper and the Conservatives (+4 points) • 19% for Jack Layton and the NDP (+1 point) • 5% for Jim Harris and the Green Party (unchanged)

As for the Paul Martin being exonerated from all responsibility to the Sponsorship Scandal?

• 54% agree that “the findings of the Gomery Report show that the Liberal Party is corrupt and does not deserve to be re-elected”, versus 38% who believe the government deserves to be re-elected and eight percent “don’t know”.

[Heartofsong83]

In Ontario at least, a Conservative-Liberal tie = far more Conservative seats (Liberal support concentrated in the Toronto area). All this leaves Paul Martin headed for the opposition benches, and Stephen Harper headed for 24 Sussex again.

[Alexander Rubin]

Yeah, whatever. As a Canadian Conservative, all I can say is don't get your hopes up. And believe it when you see it, and not before. The Liberals are going to win and are going to continue to win for a long time. All they have to do is shout, as they are wont to do, "hidden agenda", and people vote for them because they become scared of some vague, poorly defined notion of an Evangelical Christian theocracy ruling Canada with an iron fist, led of course by Ayatollah Stephen Harper.

My prediction for the next election. Liberals: 34% (this seems to represent the low in their support). Conservatives: 30%. NDP: 19%. BQ: 14%. Green: 4%. +/- 3% variation

[Alexander Rubin]

For the pinglist. However, unfortunately, I don't think this will actually translate into a Conservative win, and certainly not a Conservative majority win, which we badly need.

[Crazieman]

Would it be possible for the liberal voters to get 'fed up' with the liberal party and go for the communists in the NDP? Christians in the Conservative party are more evil, after all.

I know a bit about Canadian politics, but I don't understand how the public up there thinks.

[Heartofsong83]

Majority? No. Conservatives would need to get to at least 40% for such to happen.

[Heartofsong83]

Some left-leaning Liberals may vote NDP as a protest vote, but they often try to avoid such, as it could split the left and allow Conservatives to win with 35% or so in 3-way races...

[EQAndyBuzz]

"54% agree that “the findings of the Gomery Report show that the Liberal Party is corrupt and does not deserve to be re-elected”, versus 38% who believe the government deserves to be re-elected and eight percent “don’t know”."

I could have swqore they were talking about the liberals here.

[goldstategop]

The Liberals should recover during a campaign. In Canada, the MSM will be on their side in a general election.

(Denny Crane: "I Don't Want To Socialize With A Pinko Liberal Democrat Commie. Say What You Like About Republicans. We Stick To Our Convictions. Even When We're Know We're Dead Wrong.")

[goldstategop]

Not going to happen unless the Conservatives win some ridings in Quebec. The Anglophone ridings in La Belle Province will stay in Liberal hands. Varnier hasn't changed party since 1882 and if the Liberals win it again, we're probably looking at another Liberal minority Government.

(Denny Crane: "I Don't Want To Socialize With A Pinko Liberal Democrat Commie. Say What You Like About Republicans. We Stick To Our Convictions. Even When We're Know We're Dead Wrong.")

[conservative in nyc]

The NDP received about 15.7% of the nationwide vote in the last election (Liberals - 36.7%/Conservatives - 29.6%/Bloc Quebecois 12.4%). I don't see them getting much more than that.

If the polls show the election is close or the Conservatives are in the lead, the Liberals will scare potential NDP voters in Ontario to vote for them, lest the scary Ayatollah Harper with his hidden ultra-Christian agenda come to power and turn Canada into Iran North.

And it will be very difficult for the Conservatives to win a majority unless they make major inroads in Quebec. The math just doesn't work, unless the Conservative somehow manage to take 2/3 of the Ontario ridings (keeping the status quo) or a little over 1/2 of the Ontario ridings and a sweep of Western Canada.

[motorola7]

54% say the Liberals don't deserve to be re-elected, and Martin leads the national party support 31% to 30 over Harper.

These numbers show this poll is a pile of bull crap and doesn't mean anything. Most Canadians will spend about 5 seconds pondering this and vote Liberal as usual when Martin jacks up the anti-Americn rhetoric and pulls a few more billion out of the slush funds for more election giveaways.

The sheeple don't know or, care, that he is using their own money to bribe them. Sad.

[Agrarian]

What I really want to see is Alberta and maybe Sask joining the US. We could use a couple more red states...

[Sam Gamgee]

I actually predict a Liberal majority. Quebec will forgive. The worst is past them.

[Sam Gamgee]

Yup. They are sheep alright. Bought with their own money.

[Sam Gamgee]

I wonder how red (which is confusing to start, as red is the colour of socialists in most countries, except of course the US) they really are? I guess red enough to give all their colleges to Republicans?

[fanfan]

Canada Ping!

Please FReepmail me to get on or off this ping list.

[fanfan]

Nope.

The Bloc rules Quebec, so it's a fight for the rest of Canada.

[Agrarian]

You are right, it is indeed confusing. I'm not sure when the US MSM started using red for the Republicans on our election evening TV maps, but you can be sure that it was distinctly intentional.

I seem to remember, growing up, that it was the Dems who were red, and that 2000 was the first time they flipped it, but I may be wrong. Whatever... We Americans have a tendency to take slurs and turn them into badges of honor. Start with singing "Yankee Doodle" and come right up to the "vast right-wing conspiracy" -- of which I am proud to be a part. :-)

You are right that Alberta and Sask. are perhaps conservative only by comparison with the rest of Canada. But I think that they would be more conservative than any of our reliably "blue" Democrat states...

I'm not sure I get the "give all their colleges" reference...

[doc30]

It will simply mean that the Liberals will win with a smaller minority government with power centered around Toronto. Nothing new. Like the old joke asks, "How do you screw in a light bulb in Toronto?" The answer is, stand in the center of the room and the world will revolve around you.

[GMMAC]

While the Ontario factor likely amounts to yet another indictment of Liberal immigration policies and pandering to minority and assorted other special interest groups, the probable most key Adscam-related element isn't so far showing up in the polls and/or media coverage.

Once the Liberals write the cheque for supposed restitution it will stand as a more or less permanent admission of Party-wide guilt - as opposed to guilt on the part of a mere faction or small clique of rogue individuals - which may well prove to be an inoperable malignancy because it will persistently beg the question - even to those in Ontario - of how much was really taken.

While erstwhile Liberal supporters who've been bought-off with public funds may well know which side their bread's buttered on and remain loyal, so too do the likely far greater number of ordinary working stiffs. For these Liberal-backers the question hits them right where they live and will keep hitting them harder as tax time approaches.

Bet too that it will convince a lot of ideological fellow travelers - 'NDPers in a hurry' types - to cast protest votes for fringe candidates or simply stay home next time with either only helping the CPC.
Plus, as those in this latter group typically identify themselves with the Chrétienista left-wing of the Liberal Party, the more Martin is compelled to vilify 'ti-Jean' and his cronies, the more he's digging his own grave with them!

[GMMAC]

"Quebec will forgive."

As the Bloc's overall support and number of seats have increased steadily over the past 3 general elections, there's is absolutely no logical foundation for this presumption.

In Quebec - beyond the Montreal area's West Island, Ville de Mont Royale & possibly the odd nearby Anglo and/or immigrant pocket - virtually no Liberals will be elected next time out.

[Heartofsong83]

Alberta would be dominated by the GOP. Saskatchewan would have a strong urban-rural split, but I think with grassroots appeal traditional Prairie leftists would switch to the Republicans.

Where can they find Democrats as a compromise?

[Heartofsong83]

That's not enough seats to take power...even with a Toronto sweep and some additional urban seats, the Conservatives take over government.

[Sam Gamgee]

You don’t think the Quebecois will question the purpose of voting for a separatist party and throw their votes back to the Liberals. The best thing for the Bloc is for the Liberals to keep running that dweeb Charest provincially.

[Sam Gamgee]

I just meant that if Alberta and Sask joined the union they would vote by electoral college. So perhaps Alberta would have 4 colleges. It wouldn’t matter even if 35% of the province leans to the Democrats, because even if 3 colleges go the Republicans, they get to take all 4 of them.

[Sam Gamgee]

Do you mind being called "Yanks"?

[Sam Gamgee]

Well, that’s good news then.

[Sam Gamgee]

My province, BC, is likely another story entirely?

[fanfan]

You don’t think the Quebecois will question the purpose of voting for a separatist party and throw their votes back to the Liberals.

Not at all.

They 'get more' with the Bloc than they would by going Liberal, and they know it.

[fanfan]

If Alberta were admitted into the Union today..

Area Rank: 3rd biggest State (bigger than California, smaller than Texas).

Population Rank: 30th most populous State (bigger than Iowa, smaller than Connecticut).

GDP Rank: 29th biggest economy in US (bigger than Oklahoma, smaller than South Carolina).

Congressmen: 4 House Representatives and 2 Senators.

Electoral Votes: 6

---

If Saskatchewan were admitted into the Union today..

Area Rank: 3rd biggest State (bigger than California, smaller than Texas).

Population Rank: 44th most populous State (bigger than Montana, smaller than Rhode Island).

GDP Rank: 49th biggest economy in US (bigger than Montana, smaller than South Dakota).

Congressmen: 1 House Representatives and 2 Senators.

Electoral Votes: 3

[Sam Gamgee]

Very interesting. Surprised to find out Sask is larger than Montana.

If they joined they may just keep the Democrats out of the Executive and Congress (majority) forever.

Also if Alberta did separate the likely result is that a good number of liberals would slither out of Alberta to their spiritual homes back East, and conservatives elsewhere would scramble to get inside.

I recall reading an article about how the growth in the midWest will result in more and more colleges being added to states like Colorado and Nevada. That could be positive as well as those states would likely go Republican.

[fanfan]

If Alberta separates, I'd consider moving.

[Sam Gamgee]

Where are you living, if I may ask?

My wife is from Colorado. We made the decision for her to move to Victoria with me. It was a pragmatic decision. The cost of living in Denver was very high and I believed we could make it better here on one income as we have kids.
Of course at that time I still believed in democracy and that one free system of government is as good as another. Now I no longer believe that, and to the chagrin of many compatriots on this site, I find myself feeling nothing but contempt for my own nation and most of its inhabitants.

Of course on never makes these decisions lightly. I rather not move since we just started a new phase in our life - new jobs, children, and a new house. My family is here too.

[fanfan]

Now I no longer believe that, and to the chagrin of many compatriots on this site, I find myself feeling nothing but contempt for my own nation and most of its inhabitants.


You won't get any argument from me on that.

I'm in Ontario.

BTW, I noticed you aren't on the Canada ping list. Do you want to be added? I won't take offense if you don't want to.

[Sam Gamgee]

Yes, please, put me on the ping list.

Ontario? I guess I better stop referring to it as the evil land of the East? ƒº Actually I have realized things are really not much different in Ontario, especially when the latest polls show Liberals in the lead in British Columbia. Victoria is just crazy and likely no different than the GTA in thinking. Co-workers were talking about the BC Liberals (actually a slightly conservative party) and how they don¡¦t know anyone that voted for them, therefore the election must have been rigged. People in Victoria have no clue that the rest of BC think much differently than they do. The latest TELUS and Teachers strikes have really brought the rhetoric to the forefront.

[fanfan]

Yes, please, put me on the ping list.

You are on it. My pleasure.


Ontario? I guess I better stop referring to it as the evil land of the East?


Why? I won't stop. LOL.

The latest polls show Liberals in the lead in British Columbia

Whoa? I heard it was the Federal NDP in the lead out there.
---------------------------------------

Gmmac, can you add Sam Gamgee to your copy of our ping list please? Thanks.

[Sam Gamgee]

http://www.nodice.ca/elections/canada/polls-western.php

The last Pollara poll shows Libs 35, Cons 33, NDP 27. But that was Oct 7.

My guess is that a good chunk of the CPC vote was Western protest vote. Votes from people who like living off the government teat, but hate Ottawa.

[Heartofsong83]

There'd still likely be several Republicans from the Interior elected...

[Heartofsong83]

Before redistribution, Alberta would have 7 electoral votes and Saskatchewan would have 4. (Those may change in the first redistribution)

Other provinces: Ontario - 20, Quebec - 13 (although they'd never join), British Columbia - 8, Manitoba - 4, the Atlantic provinces - 3 each.

[Heartofsong83]

Your results would roughly translate into this seat count:

Liberals 105-130, Conservatives 90-120, Bloc Quebecois 55-66, NDP 22-30.

[fanfan]

In BC, its:

NDP - 36%
Libs - 33%
CPC - 24%

According to Ipsos Reid/Global National poll released last night.

You are more surrounded than you thought.

;-)

[fanfan]

Quebec - 13 (although they'd never join)

Good!

[Sam Gamgee]

We would probably have 2 separate nations – Ontario and Quebec. Maybe even 3, as conservative semi-rural Ontario splits off from Bolshevist GTA. I don’t know where to put Manitoba in all this?

[Sam Gamgee]

Wow, the CPC has really taken a back seat to the socialists. Maybe that explains the anti-conservative sentiment I have been witnessing lately? Harper seems to have few friends here. What’s so appealing about a party (NDP) that claims to allow a free vote and then tosses a member who wanted to stop the slippery slope to bestiality?

[Heartofsong83]

Keep them with the west.

[fanfan]

Likes attract, I guess.

[Heartofsong83]

The Conservatives (and Reform/Alliance) are always underpolled in BC before elections and climb back up in the campaign, usually at Liberal expense.

[fanfan]

Good to know.

Stealth polling?

;-)

[Alexander Rubin]

That sounds reasonable. I stick by that.

[GMMAC]

"You don’t think the Quebecois will question the purpose of voting for a separatist party and throw their votes back to the Liberals."

The trend has been headed in the exact opposite direction for over a decade and the Quebecois now have even more good cause to despise the Librano$ since 'national' insult has been heaped upon general sleaziness and criminality so - in a word - NO!

"The best thing for the Bloc is for the Liberals to keep running that dweeb Charest provincially."

Agreed and I'd add that weasel Charest, with his suppossed Party switch, hopefully proved to people all across the country once and for all that there's absolutely no difference whatsoever between a 'red-Tory' - 'RINO' to our U.S. friends - and a damned Liberal!