Posted on 11/04/2005 6:18:57 AM PST by DarthVader
November 4, 2005--Heading into the final weekend of Election 2005, Democrat Tim Kaine has a narrow lead over Republican Jerry Kilgore in the race to be Virginia's next Governor.
The latest Rasmussen Reports election poll shows Kaine with 49% of the vote while Kilgore attracts 46%. This is the first time all year that either candidate has reached 49% in a Rasmussen Reports poll.
The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted November 2. The survey's margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points, with a 95% level of confidence. Demographic Details are available for Premium Members.
State Senator Russell Potts, a Republican running as an independent, currently earns just 2% of the statewide vote.
Last week, Kaine was ahead by just two percentage points, 46% to 44%. The candidates have been within three points of each other in six consecutive polls conducted since Labor Day.
This is the fourth straight 2005 Virginia election poll with "leaners" included in the totals. Leaners are those who initially do not express a preference for either major party candidate but lean one way or the other when asked a follow-up question.
Without leaners, Tim Kaine has a one-point edge, 46% to 45%, over Jerry Kilgore.
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Kaine has clearly benefited from his relationship with current Governor, Mark Warner. Warner continues to hold a 72% Job Approval Rating in the current poll.
Voters are equally divided as to whether they trust Kaine or Kilgore more when it comes to managing the state's economy. Forty-six percent (46%) prefer Kilgore on taxes while 43% prefer Kaine.
Half of all voters (51%) say Kilgore is closer to their views on the Death Penalty. Thirty-three percent (33%) say Kaine holds an opinion closer to their own.
However, the Kilgore commercials on the death penalty may not have helped his campaign. Eighty-two percent (82%) of Likely Voters say they saw the commercial. Of those who did, 26% said it made them more likely to vote for Kilgore while 36% said they were more likely to vote for Kaine because of the ad.
Among those not affiliated with either major party, 15% say the ad made them more likely to support Kilgore. Thirty-three percent (33%) said it pushed them towards Kaine.
Kaine earns 89% of votes from Democrats and has a nine point advantage among unaffiliated voters. Kilgore earns 85% of the Republican votes.
Thirty-seven percent (37%) of voters say they plan to vote for Kaine and are certain they will not change their mind. An identical number plan to vote for Kilgore and are certain they will not change their mind.
In six of the last eight Rasmussen Reports election polls in Virginia, Jerry Kilgore has attracted between 44% and 46% of the vote. One he was a point above that range, and once a point below.
In the last four Virginia election polls, Kaine has been in that same range (44% to 46%) every time. However, in the preceding four polls, he was in the 39% to 41% range.
Overall, Kilgore is viewed favorably by 53% of Virginia voters and unfavorably by 42%. For Kaine, the numbers are 56% favorable and 42% unfavorable.
Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.
Rasmussen Reports was the nation's most accurate polling firm during the Presidential election and the only one to project both Bush and Kerry's vote total within half a percentage point of the actual outcome.
During Election 2004, RasmussenReports.com was also the top-ranked public opinion research site on the web. We had twice as many visitors as our nearest competitor and nearly as many as all competitors combined.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
I don't understand why he focused so much on the death penalty ad.
Kaine sucks on so many other important issues like illegals, taxes, abortion, guns, affirmative action, business.
Kaine is Virginia's version of Howard Dean.
The dems will have a field day next week if a liberal like Kaine wins in New Jersey.
For all the people that say we will win if we take on illegals get out there and help out Kilgore.
Looking at the raw numbers...why is Kaine doing as well as he is???
Do you think Kilgore is toast?
This is coming from an Ohioan just observing.
Mason Dixon has Kilgore at 42 and Kaine at 48 in Tidewater. Kilgore killed himself with those damned death penalty ads. He let Kaine hide behind the Church and claim that he was being attacked because of his Catholic Faith. That may not play in other parts of VA but it played here.
Kaine is essentially the incumbent.
I know I haven't been polled and I'm voting for Kilgore.
I'm not too worried.
Republicans ALWAYS poll weaker than Democrats. It's the nature of polling, because Republicans actually have lives and go to work every day.
Kaine is doing heavy advertising on latino TV stations. I watch two of those, Univision and Telemundo, and his commercials are really good pr for his campaign. I saw no Kilgore ads last night at all on latino TV stations. That's a pretty big voting block. Those who think latinos don't vote have never worked their precinct polls on voting day. Where are the Kilgore ads?
Minutemen and volunteers to the polls on Tuesday in VA!
Challenge all voters who do not provide valid ID and must sign affadavits. Illegals turn out in droves to vote Democrat, help stop the madness. With the media helping the liberals, standard Democrat cheating, and skewed polling, we need all the help we can get.
Kilgore has promised to get tough on illegal immigration and end pro-illegal government support. Kaine is more of the same - 'no ID to vote', drivers licenses, free services to illegals, etc.
KILGORE really f'ed up
He had it and threw it away
Let the MSM commence the republican death march and let the chicken littles on here proceed with whining and worry
Oh well. They didn't ask me - And I live in the Liberal stronghold of Northern Virginia. I'm guessing they have Kaine going at a 99-1 ratio here.
I just heard a radio ad on illegal immigration today driving to work -- it was AWESOME!!! Talked about Kaine's support for taxpayer paid day laborer centers, instate tuition for illegal s and banning cops from enforcing immigration law. If they stick with that ad -- and hopefully put a similar ad on TV -- through the weekend I think Kilgore could pull it out.
Kaine is doing well because people think he will be like Warner. They are wrong Kaine is a radical liberal. He is anti second amendment.
Northern Virginia has been becoming much more liberal in recent years. Kerry even beat Bush in Fairfax county. The washington media beating up on Bush so much helps Kaine in Northern Virginia.
Kaine is doing great in Northern Virginia. Conservative voters need to show up and vote for Kilgore. If you are angry at national republicans don't take it out on Kilgore.
Kilgore's death penalty ad was one of the dumbest ads ever. Why make that the issue of the campaign. Forrester wasn't going to win anyway but Kilgore made a big mistake.
This speaks volumes of how far this country has turned to the left with help from the media. Virginia voters don't care about illegals they care about Joe Wilson. Kaine's staff is filled with former dean campaign people. If this election was last year he would have lost easily. Bush won Virginia by 8 points. Warner won but he was perceived as a moderate which Kaine isn't.
A liberal like Kaine winning Virginia would be like a conservative winning New Jersey. It shows how far the MSM has turned this country to the left.
72% of Virginians like paying higher taxes?
Thomas Jefferson is rolling over in his grave.
I never trust polls at this point.
In october 2004, they said Kerry was going to win.
I like the ad that ends with...'What part of Illegal does Tim Kaine not get'? I hope it plays all weekend here in Tidewater. An ad that counters Kaine's pious claims of religious persecution for his death penalty stand vs his support for abortion would help too. Kaine made big headway with Catholics in Tidewater because of the Death penalty ads.
Kaine made headway with CINOs. He is pro-abortion and should be excommunicated.
I'll be shocked if Kilgore wins. One poll had Kaine up by 8 points. The independents are buying into the MSM. Kaine is winning independents by 14 points.
I fear for this country right now. Just look at out of state liberals coming into ohio. Some of the issues in ohio are polling well. The dems plan is to go to every republican state and defeat gerrymandering but keep it in dem states. Dems last year tried to split Colorodo's electoral votes because it was a republican state. Dems are on their way to manipulating the system so they will win easily.
Kaine winning in Virginia would be like how the republicans won in 93 going into 94 midterms. You could be looking at a Nancy Pelosi congress and Harry Reid senate.
I know he is but nobody I've talked to at Church kniows that. All they know id that he was a missionary as a young man and that he is a 'victim' of mean negative advertising just because he supports the Church's teaching on the death penalty. Kilgore let him paint himself as the victim and it's hurt Kilgore with Catholics. Not just CINO's.
Kilgore seems to be floating from issue to issue in search of one that resonates with the largest number of voters. Kaine is an unconviced felon; Jerry should have focused more on Timmy's tenure of Richmond's crime lord mayor.
Kilgore should be hitting Kaine on the second amendment.
Run those ads down in the Tidewater.
Kaine is the biggest fraud there is. He is as left as Ted Kennedy and hides behind being Catholic.
The Dems won both governorships up for election in 2001, when GWB's popularity was very high. I don't think this year's elections should have much bearing on '06. But having said that, it is true that Republicans might become dispirited and Dems can be emboldened knowing the media will help them regain power. So the national GOP had better be working on a strong, positive platform for '06 right now. And have plenty of $$ for a huge ad blitz.
However, the fight is not over. The GOP 72 hour Get Out the Vote plan is very effective and the RATS are scared of it.
I'm not saying the Kilgore campaign hasn't made mistakes, or couldn't have done things better, but he is fighting against...
- An incumbent Lt. Governor who remade himself to be a moderate and has whined about those mean nasty Republicans every time Kilgore has mentioned his name.
- A popular incumbent Governor (for the life of me I'll never really understand why) who has spent the last four years telling us how he fixed the budget crisis THAT NEVER EXISTED
- The liberal mediots who have helped them.
- Disgruntled RINOs who are only in this to seek revenge because the convervative Republicans, Kilgore amongst them, dared to stand against them in the unnecessary tax increase. Make no mistake about it. Russ Potts doesn't want to be Governor. He wants revenge because he had to face an uphill primary challenge from a real conservative last time he ran for Senate. He got his wittle feewings hurt.
This will ALL be about turnout. And we have to remember that the majority of these polls are released for the specific purpose of suppressing GOP turnout.
Have we so quickly forgotten that up until 6:00 p.m. or later last November, the exit polls were telling us that Kerry was winning Virginia?
VIRGINIANS: IT IS NOT TIME TO REARRANGE THE DECK CHAIRS!
It's time to get out there for the final push. If we do, we will win.
It's just that simple.
Warner ran on being pro second amendment. Warner was viewed as being very moderate. He was well known having run against John Warner for the senate. He had a lot of money and had a great campaign staff. Warner is a much better candidate than Kaine.
Kaine on the other hand is a raging liberal that should be crushed in a red state like Virginia. Kaine winning Virginia would be like Kerry winning Virginia. Kerry lost Virginia by 8 points. Kaine doing so well has everything to do with Washington politics. I blame Kilgore his stupid death penalty ad but the MSM knocking republicans day after day has sunk him.
Kilgore was up a lot in early summer before Bush's ratings really started going down. Kaine had already made up a lot of ground before the death penalty ads and they just sinked Kilgore. It probably would have been a toss up election without those ads but with them in this enviornment he is in real bad shape. If he has any dirt he better use it now.
In addition to that, Mark Earley is a wonderful guy, was a great Attorney General, but was a lousy candidate for Governor. His heart just wasn't in it. And it was over for him by August.
BUT, these same polls had him losing by 15 pts. The actual margin was somewhere around 4-5 pts.
That's part of the problem!! Kaine is running ads in northern VA saying
Kilgore will raise taxes! He's spewing all kinds of lies and I do not see any
ads challenging Kaine's claims. Those ads plus having the Post as a co-
conspirator are hurting Kilgore badly. And, Kilgore should stop talking
about widening I-66. That's a hot button issue and it will not will him any
votes in Arlington. I doubt it's going to pick up that many votes in Fairfax
either because widening=years of construction. I don't think he should have
focused on that issue so much.
I am hoping that people will be scared of Kaine's face and that creepy
grin he always has on it, and that will make them vote for Kilgore.
That's part of the problem!! Kaine is running ads in northern VA saying
Kilgore will raise taxes! He's spewing all kinds of lies and I do not see any
ads challenging Kaine's claims. Those ads plus having the Post as a co-
conspirator are hurting Kilgore badly. And, Kilgore should stop talking
about widening I-66. That's a hot button issue and it will not will him any
votes in Arlington. I doubt it's going to pick up that many votes in Fairfax
either because widening=years of construction. I don't think he should have
focused on that issue so much.
I am hoping that people will be scared of Kaine's face and that creepy
grin he always has on it, and that will make them vote for Kilgore.
I agree with most of what you said, but many Virginians do care abiout illegals - particularly those outside of Arlington, Alexandria and Fairfax Counties. I think Kilgore should have made the illegal situation the staple of his TV ads - even the Wash Post has polls that show over 70% of Virginians don't agree with day labor sites, etc.
The death penalty ads were good, but I don't think Virginians are worried about it like they are TRAFFIC, TRAFFIC and TRAFFIC. The best ad I saw for Kilgore was just a WIDEN RT 66 - KILGORE banner on 66.
Plus, the second amendment groups are PO'ed at Kilgore because of a flap with VCDL and GOA. They better kiss and make up.
Maybe if the Dems win in Virginia and New Jersey it will provide the wake-up call to the Republican Party that they better grow a spine and get ready for 2006. It just seems to me that right now the party just doesn't have any fighters in it. There isn't a Goldwater or Reagan anywhere to be found.
Kaine's face is creepy.
I disagreed on the widening 66 though - that is such a major concern for those in Prince William and beyond. Widening 66 has been on the radar for decades - it needs to be done. Kilgore isn't going to win in arlington anyways, he needed to concentrate on his base.
Kilgore's numbers have this, among likely voters, as a dead heat. Dems always poll stronger here in Virginia. As someone said, they had Early losing by double-digits.
Get out to vote, and bring someone with you.
This sucks.
I just heard on WMAL that President Bush will be campaigning with Jerry on Monday in Richmond.
Will that help or hurt him?
I think we're fine with the Senate, but some here at FR don't realize how fragile the House is. There are many dozen districts where 10 point swings can happen and sweep GOP congressmen out.
Yes he did. He had Bush slightly ahead or running neck and neck with Lantern Face.
I can't see how it could heurt at all. Folks around here hav been whining that it hasn't happened before.
Go back an look at the conventional wisdom (CW), one year out from major elections. Let's review.
1999-CW said Gore should have an easy time getting elected as the VP of a popular President and a humming economy.
2000-Gore defeated, Bush elected.
2001-CW said Dems have a shot at gaining seats. Presidents always drop seats in midterms.
2002-Bush goes out and campaigns, GOP gains across the board.
2003-CW said unpopular war would lead to GOP losing many seats in Congress, and a chance of Bush losing.
2004-Bush wins by greater margin than in 2000, GOP once again gains seats.
2005-CW says GOP in trouble, Dems could grab control of Congress, Bush foundering.
2006-????
Bush has a 53% approval rating here in VA.
>Didn't Rasmuessen say the Virginia Presidential race last year was too close to call? <
Yes, and the media was saying Kerry was up that afternoon. It scared us all to death.
I have to laugh at the Kaine ads here in the southwest. They keep pushing the fact that all of the newspapers endorse Kaine. They say nothing about the fact that Kilgore is endorsed by the Fraternal order of Police, the NRA and a large Fairfax business group.
Monday is cutting it pretty close.
Frankly I am surprised Bush has a 53% approval in VA.
Lots of military and conservative christians down here.
FOP and street cops love Kilgore. I didn't see any ads touting the FOP endorsement.
As I recall, Rasmussen predicted the national vote last year to be 51-48 in favor of Bush. They were the only ones to hit it right on the head. But I'm not sure if their state polls were as accurate. Going way back to 1989 I think polls also showed Doug Wilder winning by a solid margin but on election night it ended up being a 2 point race. Maybe Kilgore still has a chance.
I'm calling BS on this poll. I'd bet my house on a Kilgore win.
For what its worth I hear alot of people I know who don't vote say they are going to the polls this time because they think Kaine would be an abject disaster as gov.
Kilgore may pick up some votes in PW and Loudoun for his 66 stance, but the
envirowhackos all over northern VA will come out in full force to oppose his
position. So Kaine will pick up a lot of votes because of it. People who maybe
did not care before will now go out to vote against Kilgore. Even non-whacko
Arlingtonians are strongly opposed to widening it.
Plus, he shouldn't promise to widen it because he may not be able to do so. I think he should have discussed it more as "a possibility to explore".
And, back to my main point, what will widening 66 do to improve traffic?
Really, let's be honest. It will still be bad, no matter what. There's just too
many people trying to get from A to B.
"Republicans ALWAYS poll weaker than Democrats. It's the nature of polling, because Republicans actually have lives and go to work every day."
Bingo. This is just like before the 2004 election. You know if Kilgore wins, the DUers will point to this poll and say that Kilgore stole the election and that he won only because of Diebold and voter fraud.
Is it true that Kilgore cancelled appearing with the President as I have been hearing on the news? If so, then this is truly stupid and he deserves to lose.
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