Posted on 11/07/2005 10:39:25 AM PST by GOPGuide
Lt. Governor Tim Kaine and Governor Mark Warner start thier cross state campaign tour in Roanoke this morning, working to get last minute votes for Tuesday's election.
Our own 10 On Your Side/Survey USA poll, as well as others across the state, show Kaine has a slight lead within the margin of error over Republican candidate, and former Virginia Attorney General, Jerry Kilgore. "We really feel a sense of momentum about the race right now," Kaine said thsis morning. When we asked him about possible disappointment in counting on that momentum, Kaine responded, "It doesn't happen on automatic. It's all about turnout and its an obligation. People have to take it seriously and go."
With both candidates so close in all of the major polls across the state, Kaine says his campaign is ready to fight beyond election day if there's a Bush/Gore 2000 scenario. "We've always been successful by preparing for every eventuality, so we have prepared for every eventuality, including a coin flip. But I don't think we'll need it. "
Gov. Warner re-empthasized what he and Kaine accomplished during their four years in office, and also commented on the intense negative attack ads, both campaigns are running. "Virginians don't want that kind of negative, slash and burn attack style politics."
Kilgore will fly in to Roanoke Monday afternoon, with a heavy hitter of his own, Virginia Senator and former Governor George Allen. Kilgore served as Allen's Secretary of Public Safety.
Complete coverage of both campaigns, and what our last statewide Survey USA poll shows about who's leading, tonight on Newschannel 10 starting at 5:00 P.M.
Also, SUSA has Corzine winning 50-44 today, though I would much rather hold onto Virginia than get a RINO Gov in Jersey.
Bad news.
If Kaine is not better than +5 in polls, Kilgore wins.
Virginia has a democrat governor now, so if the republican wins it isn't a "hold", it is a "win".
There is no such thing as a "lead" within the margin of error. THe margin of error is the range over which the numbers could vary without any change in the underlying data. In other words, a 41-40 could just as soon be 40-41.
There is a second error, the "confidence", which indicates that, even if the lead is greater than the margin of error, it is only accurate a certain percent of the time (usually 95% confidence) meaning there is a chance that, even with the data, the answer could still be wrong.
This is before you get into unquantified sample, question, and interpretive bias.
In the last I think 4 races, the last polls overstated the democrat support by 4-6 percent. So being tied is not as bad as it seems.
We are tied with a sitting Lt Governor, the "heir" to a highly popular democrat governor. That's a pretty good place to be. Our down-ticket people are all leading, one or more polls have them above the margin of error.
But in this modern day of politics, the only thing that matters is turnout. We spend our time not trying to convince the average person we are right, but instead making sure that every person that already thinks we are right shows up at the polls.
So if you live, or know anybody who lives, in Virginia, who would be predisposed to voting republican, make it your life's work in the next day to ensure that they go to the polls and vote republican.
Thank you. I'll be sitting in a poll tomorrow and then making phone calls to get out the vote.
Since Survey USA was worse than Mason-Dixon and Rasmussen in 2004, I would lean toward Mason-Dixon and Rasmussen.
I hope Kaine is ahead in the polls just like Kerry was ahead of Bush. I'm not that crazy about Kilgore, but I will hold my nose and vote for him anyway.
PS: President Bush approval in Virginia is 53% almost equal to his election number sin this state last year.
It is garbage.
Leave it up to the liberals running SurveyUSA to poll on the three worst days for public polling for Republicans, the weekend.
ohfercryinoutloud...
The polls haven't even opened yet and you're throwing in the towel?
Have we so quickly forgotten that as late as 6:00 p.m. last Election Day the media was still telling us Kerry was winning Virginia?
Republicans are always undersampled. If the pattern holds, and these numbers are correct, Kilgore wins by 3-4 pts.
SUSA's poll today has Kaine up by 9.
1st, it's Mark Warner.
But you're sorta right on your other point. The fact is that Mark Earley had already lost the race by August of 2001. It would have been vitually impossible for him to regain the lead and win.
President Bush and VP Cheney cancelled campaign appearances after 9/11, and rightly so. There was a window of about a week where a visit from Bush ~might~ have turned things around. But it's doubtful.
The bottom line is, the only person to blame for Mark Earley losing in 2001 is Mark Earley. But Jerry Kilgore is no Mark Earley.
Kilgore is leading among Church goers and has solid support among GOP voters.
Also, the GOP is not even with Democrats in Virgina. Republicans outnumber Democrats.
Yet another FAKE POLL.
Put your money on Mason-Dixon and Rasmussen, not SurveyUSA, the MSNBC of pollsters.
Agreed and I still believe that Kilgore has 52% chance of winning tomorrow but we shall see.
Bad news.
I think this poll is crap after checking the internals.
Susa says that Kaine is winning independents by a MARGIN of 46% points - not that Kaine has 46% of independents but that is his Lead!!! Also, Kilgore is losing the White vote by 1 point to Kaine AND he is losing the male vote by 5 points.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=01f6575a-20e3-49b5-9a6f-24fd04944663
12 hours until polls open in Virginia, Democrat Tim Kaine defeats Republican Jerry Kilgore, according to a SurveyUSA poll of 656 likely Virginia voters, conducted for WSLS-TV in Roanoke and WUSA-TV in Washington DC. This tracking graph tells the story. In June, the Republican Kilgore led by 10. In August, Kilgore led by 5. In September, Kilgore led by 3. In October, the Democrat Kaine led by 2. Today, Election Eve, Kaine leads by 9. Interviews for this survey were conducted before a last-second appearance by President Bush scheduled for this evening, 11/7, on behalf of Kilgore. It is unclear what impact President Bush's 11th-hour visit will have. Since SurveyUSA's most recent poll 3 weeks ago on 10/17, Kilgore has lost 13 points among male voters. Over the summer, Kilgore led by 15 among men. He finishes down 5. Over the summer, Kilgore led among women by 5. At the finish line, he is down 14 among women. Over the summer, Kilgore led by 19 among Virginia's whites. At the finish line, Kaine is up by 1. Over the summer, Kilgore led by 4 among Independents. At the finish line, he trails by 21. Over the summer, Kaine led by 23 points among Moderates. At the finish line, Kaine still leads, but now by twice as much, 46 points. Over the summer, Kilgore led by 11 among Suburban voters. At the finish line, Kaine leads by 9. As the suburbs go, so goes Virginia? We shall see. Incumbent Democrat Mark Warner is term limited; the Governor's seat is open.
Right on!!
The democRATS are helpless against out GOTV drive, and they know it. And, they are very, VERY nervous because they know what is coming in less than 24 hours!!
Keep the faith and VOTE!!!
Junk in, junk out!!
The ONLY poll that counts will be the one I cast tomorrow in the privacy of the voting booth!!
I'm voting KILGORE, BOLLNG and McDONNELL !!
On Tuesday, November 8th, the conservatives take back Virgina!! Hallelujah and Amen !!
I don't believe polls.
We were told that John Kerry was going to win Virginia. hehehehehe
And people with jobs are most likely to be Republicans.......
Bump for the good guys. I'm heading to the phone bank. On to victory!
"Damn. I think Kilgore is going to lose tomorrow"
Oh ye of little faith....
How can the poll be within the margin of error and show Kaine ahead of Kilgore by nine points? I'm calling BS. The winner of the election will win by no more than three points.
Polls like tbis only serve to make democrats scream voter-fraud when they lose.
Ann W. Richards said the same thing on Nov. 1, 1994. And Geraldine Ferraro Zaccaro said the same thing on or about Nov. 1, 1984. But they ALL really do believe in polls, or politicians wouldn't take them.
If Kilgore loses, do you think he will be primarily responsible for his loss, and why and how?
Thanks.
And your point is????
I said "I" didn't believe in polls. I don't give a democRATS ass what Geraldine Ferraro or Ann Richards thinks of them.
I only care about the poll I deliver tomorrow in the privacy of the voting booth.
Does that meet with your approval?
KILGORE, BOLLING AND MCDONNELL !!!
Yes.....and people WITHOUT jobs, at home watching the soap opera's or Jerry Springer waiting for their next welfare check, are usually registered democRATS.
Sorry to be so blunt, but I speaketh the truth!!
The "slight lead" of the Survey USA poll, is 9%, just out today. Survey USA must not believe its own poll. I suspect both Corzine and Kaine will win comfortably, say by around 5%.
Now I get it.
You voted for Buchanan, not only once, but twice.
That certainly speaks volumes about you....
Perhaps.
But I will keep the faith until the election is called if you don't mind.
:)
Thank you for clarifying that the folks without jobs to whom you are referring are waiting for welfare checks :)
Your bluntness is appreciated, I was trying to make a similar comparison, but considering I don't have a paying job at the moment, I thought I would leave well enough alone!!!!!
Kilgore, Bolling, McDonell!!!!!
I had you in mind when I "carefully" worded my post :-)
BTW, how is your recovery coming???
ROFL!!!!!!
I'm coming along, thank you for asking. Now if I could just avoid the mole and dog holes in the yard.........
I haven't been doing much pounding of the pavement - but will be doing my part at several different polling places tomorrow.
Good for you!!
Just make sure you vote early and often!:-)
KILGORE, BOLLING AND McDONNELL !!
Prayer's for the Commonwealth.
Win one tomorrow for Mr. Jefferson!
:)
"UNUSUAL VOLATILITY IN VA AS VOTERS GO TO BED ON ELECTION EVE: Interviews in the Virginia governor's race conducted by SurveyUSA tonight Monday 11/7 (but before President Bush appeared in Richmond) show a swing back towards Republican candidate Jerry Kilgore, causing SurveyUSA to now update its final projection in the Virginia Governor's Contest. This morning, based on interviews conducted Friday, Saturday and Sunday (11/4/05 through 11/6/05), SurveyUSA released data that showed Democrat Tim Kaine 9 points ahead of Kilgore. However, because of intra-day volatility in that data, SurveyUSA continued to poll throughout the afternoon and evening today Monday 11/7. When interviews from the most recent 3 days -- Saturday, Sunday and today Monday -- are averaged, Kaine's lead shrinks now to 5 points. When interviews from just the past two days -- Sunday and today Monday -- are averaged, the contest is closer yet. When interviews from Monday only are considered, the contest is tied, but the Margin of Sampling error from just the one day of interviewing is high enough, and the results aberrant enough, that SurveyUSA is uncomfortable reporting just Monday-only data. For the record, SurveyUSA goes into the clubhouse with its final projection (based on Saturday, Sunday and Monday polling): Kaine 50%, Kilgore 45"
Yep.
You sure are taking this poll personally. SurveyUSA has been and still is a very reliable state pollster (better at it than Rasmussen, slightly worse than Mason-Dixon), but the race is close enough for Kilgore to win tomorrow.
|
Poll
|
Kilgore (R)
|
Kaine (D)
|
Potts (I)
|
Spread
|
|
RCP Average (11/2-11/7)
|
45.0%
|
48.0%
|
3.0%
|
Kaine +3.0
|
|
45%
|
50%
|
3%
|
Kaine +5
|
|
|
44%
|
45%
|
4%
|
Kaine +1
|
|
|
46%
|
49%
|
2%
|
Kaine +3
|
Plus, I do not like their liberal organizer.
As a conservative, I find nothing run by liberals to be reliable.
"Unusual Volatitlity" means in English "We had some serious errors in methodology and are scrambling to get a new sample".
But polling is like that sometimes!
Hopefully SUSA is also wrong about Arnold's reform initiatives going down in flames today, though I doubt it.
:(
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