Posted on 11/07/2005 11:15:41 AM PST by Alter Kaker
In Virginia, At the Wire, Momentum Raises Kaine: 12 hours until polls open in Virginia, Democrat Tim Kaine defeats Republican Jerry Kilgore, according to a SurveyUSA poll of 656 likely Virginia voters, conducted for WSLS-TV in Roanoke and WUSA-TV in Washington DC. This tracking graph tells the story. In June, the Republican Kilgore led by 10. In August, Kilgore led by 5. In September, Kilgore led by 3. In October, the Democrat Kaine led by 2. Today, Election Eve, Kaine leads by 9. Interviews for this survey were conducted before a last-second appearance by President Bush scheduled for this evening, 11/7, on behalf of Kilgore. It is unclear what impact President Bush's 11th-hour visit will have. Since SurveyUSA's most recent poll 3 weeks ago on 10/17, Kilgore has lost 13 points among male voters. Over the summer, Kilgore led by 15 among men. He finishes down 5. Over the summer, Kilgore led among women by 5. At the finish line, he is down 14 among women. Over the summer, Kilgore led by 19 among Virginia's whites. At the finish line, Kaine is up by 1. Over the summer, Kilgore led by 4 among Independents. At the finish line, he trails by 21. Over the summer, Kaine led by 23 points among Moderates. At the finish line, Kaine still leads, but now by twice as much, 46 points. Over the summer, Kilgore led by 11 among Suburban voters. At the finish line, Kaine leads by 9. As the suburbs go, so goes Virginia? We shall see. Incumbent Democrat Mark Warner is term limited; the Governor's seat is open.
Pray and vote!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
This poll is bogus.
Weekend poll, favors libs strongly.
9 points, NO WAY.
However, it's not looking good.
Possibly. A Roanoke College poll is the only other poll to show Kaine with a significant lead -- 8 pts. However, the Roanoke Poll had a gigantic margin of error and I think can safely be discounted. This one, unfortunately, seems to be pretty solid in it's methodology. While there may be some weekend Dem fluff, I can't say I'm not more than a little worried.
Anyone see Kaine's latedst TV ad? Completely in Spanish, including the on-screen graphics.
Anyone see Kaine's latest TV ad? Completely in Spanish, including the on-screen graphics.
Agreed.
There is NO WAY Kilgore is losing indies by 46% points.
If you check out Rasmussen's sight he has Kaine only leading among Independents by 9% (Still enough for a Republican to win in VA by the way).
And the kicker is that SUSA's own poll of New Jersey today has Forrester only behind 2 points among independents.
There is no way a Republican candidate in Jersey will outperform decent Republican candidate in VA among independent voters. Even Massachusetts Independents didn't vote for Kerry over Bush by 46% points last year.
And if you check their tracking, republicans have dropped from 41% of their poll to 37% of their poll.
And, among the republicans, support for kilgore has "dropped" from 88% to 83%.
So, if you believe that we have had a 4% drop in the number of republicans in the last two months, and that those republicans are less likely now to support their candidate, this could be worrisome for you.
If, that is, you also think that the Washington Post poll (which was also highly skewed in its sample) could have actually been biased toward republicans.
Realise that, in the end, it was how they decided who was likely to vote. This meant that they couldn't adjust the poll for historical measures. They simply decided that whatever they found, they would report. They think republicans won't show up on election day.
If they are right, Kilgore will lose. If they are wrong, if we can get the turnout for Kilgore, he will win.
We have enough voters identified to win -- if they all show up.
Charles,
SUSA has Forrester in JERSEY only behind in Independents by 2 points, yet in Virginia Kilgore is losing Indies by 46 points.
There is no way this is an accurate poll.
Don't believe these BIASED POLLS.
JUST GET OUT AND VOTE KILGORE!!!
I didn't see independents lost by 46 points, but it was a pretty big spread. Their stuff broke down now.
Another of their wierd stuff is that they had 15% of people who call themselves "conservative" voting for Kaine. I find that hard to believe. I could believe true conservatives not voting at all.
On the other hand, I suppose it is possible that in the past month the republican party of Virginia has collapsed.
I can't say I like this whole deal about being afraid of Kilgore being afraid of being associated with Bush, until a last minute reversal. It gives the appearance of not being in control.
Tomorrow, SurveyUSA is either going to look prescient or they're going to be the latest in a long series of pollsters to way overstate Democrat strength in Virginia the week before an election. I'd bet all I have on the latter.
The Washington Post is going to be a bit surprised. ("But everyone I know...!")
This poll is BS.
Huh? Please tell me you're not living in VA.
No I do not. I based this on what I thought I read here on FR. It is obvious I was wrong. Thank you for enlightening me.
See #20
I live here, and four years of Mark Warner "seems like forever."
;-)
Well, it might if there were any truth to it.
The President appeared at a fund raiser for Kilgore in the summer. Since then the Vice President and First Lady have also appeared. Karl Rove was scheduled for an event a couple of weeks ago, but cancelled. (Read into it what you will).
This whole nonsense about Kilgore not wanting Bush to campaign is based on the President's speech week before last in Norfolk. It was not a campaign event and Kilgore would have had to cancel a commitment to the NAACP to attend.
If it's not, then Kilgore's slide is just about historic in nature. Oooof.
You're misreading. They aren't saying that Kilgore is losing Independent by 46%. He's losing them by 11%. It is voters who describe themselves as moderate that he's losing by 46%. In the New Jersey poll, Forrester is losing Independents by 2% and losing moderates by 19%. It's not surprising the numbers are closer in New Jersey, since there are, in essence two Democrats running for the same office.
I guess they must be releasing the story at 6 PM. It ain't over until it is over.
It's possible he'll lose...the 2 week long Death Penalty ad campaign here in Tidewater really hurt him, but I doubt that it's going to be by 9 points. And I'm not ready to concede defeat yet. We have a great GOTV and the prez will be in Richmond tonight. It's close enough that anything can happen.
PLEZZZZZZZZZZ Virginians DON'T let the scum RAT win...GO VOTE!! GET OUT THE VOTE, TAKE FAMILY MEMBERS, NEIGHBORS, car pool folks who can't get there....MOVVVVVVVVVEEEE IT!! Or we'll lose it!
Come on VA go out and vote for the Republican! If nothing else to prevent the MEdia from claiming the death knell of the Republican party etc etc etc
SUSA is usually quite accurate, especially at this stage of a campaign. Let's hope this time is the exception. However, with other polls all showing Kaine with slight leads, I think this race looks like it is slipping away. We'll find out.
Maybe Bush's presence will have a last minute effect. Or not.
What I was thinking when I claimed a Rep hadn't won in a long while in VA was brought back to me by the title of a thread recently posted here. It is concerning the fact that it has been over 30 years since an member of the same Party as the president had been elected.
Sorry for the confusion.
See #33
An Update from the Survey USA group -- they admit screwing up this poll:
Interviews in the Virginia governor's race conducted by SurveyUSA tonight Monday 11/7 (but before President Bush appeared in Richmond) show a swing back towards Republican candidate Jerry Kilgore, causing SurveyUSA to now update its final projection in the Virginia Governor's Contest. This morning, based on interviews conducted Friday, Saturday and Sunday (11/4/05 through 11/6/05), SurveyUSA released data that showed Democrat Tim Kaine 9 points ahead of Kilgore. However, because of intra-day volatility in that data, SurveyUSA continued to poll throughout the afternoon and evening today Monday 11/7. When interviews from the most recent 3 days -- Saturday, Sunday and today Monday -- are averaged, Kaine's lead shrinks now to 5 points. When interviews from just the past two days -- Sunday and today Monday -- are averaged, the contest is closer yet. When interviews from Monday only are considered, the contest is tied, but the Margin of Sampling error from just the one day of interviewing is high enough, and the results aberrant enough, that SurveyUSA is uncomfortable reporting just Monday-only data. For the record, SurveyUSA goes into the clubhouse with its final projection (based on Saturday, Sunday and Monday polling): Kaine 50%, Kilgore 45%. A closer outcome still is possible.
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