Posted on 11/07/2005 6:11:44 PM PST by GOPGuide
Interviews in the Virginia governor's race conducted by SurveyUSA tonight Monday 11/7 (but before President Bush appeared in Richmond) show a swing back towards Republican candidate Jerry Kilgore, causing SurveyUSA to now update its final projection in the Virginia Governor's Contest. This morning, based on interviews conducted Friday, Saturday and Sunday (11/4/05 through 11/6/05), SurveyUSA released data that showed Democrat Tim Kaine 9 points ahead of Kilgore. However, because of intra-day volatility in that data, SurveyUSA continued to poll throughout the afternoon and evening today Monday 11/7. When interviews from the most recent 3 days -- Saturday, Sunday and today Monday -- are averaged, Kaine's lead shrinks now to 5 points. When interviews from just the past two days -- Sunday and today Monday -- are averaged, the contest is closer yet. When interviews from Monday only are considered, the contest is tied, but the Margin of Sampling error from just the one day of interviewing is high enough, and the results aberrant enough, that SurveyUSA is uncomfortable reporting just Monday-only data. For the record, SurveyUSA goes into the clubhouse with its final projection (based on Saturday, Sunday and Monday polling): Kaine 50%, Kilgore 45%. A closer outcome still is possible.
Ping-a-ding-ding!
Republicans have been winning practically everything since GWB took office, and the MSM yawns. Let the dems win just one, and they'll be crowing like the second coming.
Throw Ohio in there two, we got 5 crappy ballot issues, and a few of them may even pass.
Survey USA is just another whore of the MSM and the Democrat Party!!! The low life are hedging their bets. However, none of this polling matters. THE ONLY THING THAT MATTERS TOMORROW IS MASSIVE PUBBIE, CONSERVATIVE AND FREEPER TURNOUT, TURNOUT, TURNOUT IN BOTH VA AND NJ. WE CAN KILL THE CURRENT DEMOCRAT PARTY WITH VICTORIES IN VA AND NJ!!!
Go Team!
Yep. I'm hopefully optimistic on all of them...
Too many will vote for thee burro.
Guy's running as a Democrat, and he favors killing babies, so did his religion teach him that too?
It was pretty clear that it was his intention to stop executions in Virginia by claiming that he was adhering to the law.
We do that and the yahoo meth heads all up and down the East Coast will be swarming in here to commit even more crimes than they do presently.
Virginia cannot afford anyone like Kaine. In fact, he's the sort of guy I'd suspect of getting a cut from the narcotics trade in the I-95 corridor ~ you know, kind of like the politicians in New Jersey.
LET'S ROLL PEOPLE!! I Am voting at 7am in NJ!!!
All I'm sayin' is that it's gonna be real hard not to start drinkin' before 7 p.m. tomorrow.
Just went over my poll watching materials.
Provide some proof to the statement "Survey USA is just another whore of the MSM and the Democrat Party"
Survey USA is being responsible in reporting the last minute volatility they are seeing in their own results.
For the first time, I'm unsure of the outcome in NJ...Combined with the Rudy Effect, McGay scandal, and Corzines exwife saying "He ruined our family, He'll ruin NJ" I think Forrester has got it...Also the State Sup Court declared all voter lists expired, and all the dead people taken off of them...Imagine! Dead people taken off a voting list!
Why not?
Where's the Victory Party in Richmond? The one in northern Virginia is at the Fairfax Fire House in the City of Fairfax.
Get everyone out to Vote!!! Im going door to door and doing Phone calls...I want corzine to be wrecked! If he loses Gov we've got a shot at Senate!
Convince all your Conservative on the fencers what Communists the candidates(especially Corzine) are!
I know that all the staff (10 people or so)at the Atty's office in my husband's building were on the phone all day calling people. They have Forrester signs all over the office.. It looks like a campaign headquarters. I checked in on them from time to time to make sure they weren't loafing..LOL
We're at the Richmond Convention Center. I think we're expecting a HUGH turnout.
And here in TEXAS we'll do our part and duty to castrate, oops, mean cutoff the homo agenda at the OK corral(voting booth)! :O)
"Pray for the Elephants to win tommorow in New Jersey, Virginia and California!!!"
From your keyboard to God's screen!
GO DOUG GO!
My friend polling just does not happen that way. Survey USA went out today with poll results to make Kaine look good and Kilgore look bad. As the day progressed and they felt turnout was going to be larger then they thought and that would favor Kilgore, they did a classic CYA.
However, none of this means anything as last year's election proved. This race is going to won by turnout, not trumped up or altered poll results. If Kilgore's folks trek out to the ballot box in massive numbers, Kaine is toast. If not, the Democrats will hold a seat that was their's anyway. I just hope the good folks in Virginia realize what a "critcal path" item they have on their plate tomorrow besides electing a Republican Governor!!! A Kilgore victory will go a long way toward destroying the Democrat "Traitor/Treason" Party!!!
The GOP wins and the MSM will be crying about the French interfering in an election.
Ain't fair the Mooslems had 2 weeks of rioting before the election and reminding us that terrorism is still out there.
We just spend 4 years trying to make it all go away.
WhyyyyyWyyy
For the record, I looked at this new poll's internals and it has Kaine ahead of Kilgore among Independents by 18 points.
That is still twice as much as Rasmussen't poll which showed Kaine ahead among indies by 9 points.
If Rasmussen is right and Kilgore only loses indies by 9 or less, that should be enough for Kilgore to win given the GOP advantage in Virginia.
No, as someone else said above, I think SurveyUSA is now trying to CYA.
This is very close. But I think the GOTV effort will pull it off for Kilgore.
The crosstabs also say that Kaine leads Kilgore in the Suburbs by 51-44%. That I don't believe either, because Southern suburbs all across the South are Uber-Uber-Republican.
Polling does happen that way.
When I saw Kaine's nine point lead in that SUSA poll I immediately classified it as an outlier, 5% of all polls will be complete crap, and fall outside of the margin of error.
The fact that the previous results also came as the result of weekend polling means that it would also tend to favor the Democrats.
Even if it is CYA, so what? The more information they want to give, the better.
LOL Rose you are always a hoot!
Interesting known "liberal" NJ caller to Levin tonight. Said Corzine is looking at NJ as stepping stone. Forrester wants to serve NJ. Will vote for Forrester. Mark told him to vote twice. LOL..
Yep. The Democrats are trying to "punish" Ohio for voting for Bush.
Yup.
Issue 2, because it was too hard to commit vote fraud last time.
Issue 3, more union money to buy the next election.
Issue 4, since the Dems can't win they want a redraw of the congressional map
Issue 5, because they don't like Secretary of State Ken Blackwell.
Yeah I have been sending Mark notes all week ( on the live thread)to help us in Jersey!
He did a good GOTV spiel tonight...
A victory party sounds great! I am working tomorrow and have to be at my precinct by 5 a.m. Hope all goes smoothly and the victory party lasts all night.
What time do the polls close for each of these states?
It's not "responsibility." They are just covering their own butts in case, as in the 2004, election the polls were all skewed toward DemocRAT wins.
CYA. Not even a pollster could believe Kaine was up by 9.
In Virginia they close at 7:00 p.m.
Hi, Angelwood! Unless you're exhausted, come on over to the party! Only Dems are unwelcome!
What a bunch of Zogby-esque doublespeak!
Given their grossly UNRELIABLE polling methods (to include skewed sampling techniques), pollsters have become a pathetic joke -- valuable only as a means for achieving the MSM's leftist agenda! [In this case, the agenda is quite simple: Suppress Republican turnout at all costs!]
I have butterflys over these elections and they don't even affect Arizona. I hope all the fence-sitters decide not to vote for Corzine tomorrow for starters... lets hope the pollsters are as wrong on their predictions.
I remember when this poll was referred to as having a Republican bias...
They disproved it last election. While their outcome is suspect, and flawed with weekend polling, it wouldn't hurt folks to look at the trend. They are admitting the trend is turning towards Kilgore, if so, and we believe the race is tighter than they project, this looks good for Kilgore. At least in this, the trend should be accepted as positive, it isn't always about the top numbers.
RASS and Mason Dixon, on the other hand, project a far closer race and I'd take MD as the definitive poll. I still think the race is close, and could flip either way, but I do believe the President's stop tonight could have swung momentum in Kilgore's direction.
Praying very hard. What victories those will be if we win.
I agree, but remember, the Dems won the governor's race in VA and NJ last time, but the Republicans PICKED UP SEATS in congress the year after that!!
These two races do not bode anything for 06 unless the Pubbies win which bodes a HUGE defeat for the Dems.
"Kaine 50%, Kilgore 45%"
I don't know who will win, but it won't be by that large a margin. SurveyUSA is full of crap.
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