How 'bout hurricane "Gamra"?
Posted on 11/13/2005 5:54:33 PM PST by varina davis
Atlantic SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL -- 800 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2005
SATELLITE IMAGERY... RADAR DATA... AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 85 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ST. LUCIA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED NEAR AND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER... AND ST. LUCIA REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 33 MPH DURING THE PAST HOUR. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ALSO GRADUALLY BECOMING A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE. IF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE CIRCULATION CENTER ...THEN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
FORECASTER STEWART
NO!
Nooooooooooooooooooo!!!!! Not another one ..... *sigh*
No way! I was just thinking this morning, as a cool breeze came through my house in Sarasota, "Wow, I guess hurricane season is finally over."
I was just wondering today if the season over. I was outside painting fence today and it was close if not at 90 so the waters may still be warm enough.
Tropical storm, hurricane people...
Anyone know where I can find a topographic map of the city of New Orleans?
Ping!
And Accuweather thinks Gamma-to-be might even make Hurricane status. Ping the Nurse...
How 'bout hurricane "Gamra"?
On the Internet
Do a search on "topographic map" "New Orleans"
It works for me!
I knew a Freeper would know...
Thanks much.
Oh, never mind - should have known you'd already be here. Gee, I wonder if they'd ever retire Greek alphabet storm names?
Endless wind here in the midwest. Gets depressing after awhile.
"Gee, I wonder if they'd ever retire Greek alphabet storm names?"
I think Beta met the normal criteria for retirement - major hit, death caused, etc., so i guess we will know when they have their retirement meeting. I bet this is something they have as little idea about as we do, since it is likely it was expected to never be an issue.
Good heavens, when is it ever going to end!
I'm thinking right with you... uncharted territory.
I'm sorry - are you talking about hurricanes or the NASCAR season? :}
I would have to say hurricanes, since this southern gal doesn't keep up with NASCAR lol.
I believe the Greek alphabet names are attached to the year they occur. Thus, Alpha 2005 and Beta 2005 will stand alone. Future Greek storms will be Alpha 20xx, etc.
LOL... I was just going to ping you. Not again... couldn't be.
"...How 'bout hurricane "Gamra"?..."
How 'bout hurricane "Godzilla"?
Hurricane season isn't over until the end of November.
Gag me - I can see it on the cover now: Fabio with a destroyed car behind him, a ripped open fire suit revealing his chest, Shawna Robinson draped across his arms, and his HANS device still around his neck.
LOL
Nothing appreciable, near as I can tell. But it pays to be cautious.
Someone needs to post the pic of the guy saying "Oh no, not this #$#$ again"
Shows up better on infrared:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg
Thanks DC.
Another to watch... could damage my call of no more U.S. hits this year. Too early to say for sure, but it could come close. Some models were showing a pretty good storm heading to FL.
I had an IR version, but it didn't have the color emphasis added. Your version is much easier on the eye. Much obliged!
The Carribean is warm enough for tropical systems year round.
What ends the Atlantic season is shear, not water temps.
Tropical Depression Twenty-Seven Discussion Number 1
Statement as of 10:00 PM EST on November 13, 2005
satellite imagery... surface observations... and radar data from
Martinique indicate thunderstorm activity has continued to increase
and become much better organized in association with the large low
pressure system located over the southeastern Caribbean Sea. At
14/0000z... St. Lucia reported sustained southeast winds of 29 kt
...And ship zcbu6 located just off the southwest coast of reported
southeast winds of 27 kt. Surface pressure analyses at 00z support
a minimum central pressure of at least 1007 mb... corresponding to
approximately 32 kt. Radar data from Martinique show curved
convective banding has developed near and east of the low-level
center... which is coincident with the large area of -80c to -82c
convective tops that have been noted in infrared satellite imagery
since 22z. Therefore... the low pressure system has been upgraded
to Tropical Depression Twenty-Seven.
The initial motion estimate is 300/09. The depression is still in
the formative stages... so there may some erratic motion for the
next 24 hours until the convection becomes more consolidated around
the center. However... the general trend by the various global
models and the GFDL model is for the cyclone to propagate
west-north or northwestward for the next 24-36 hours toward a
weakness in the subtropical ridge located over the northeastern
Caribbean Sea and northern Lesser Antilles. After that... the
upper-level trough that has created the weakness is forecast to
slowly weaken and lift out to the northeast... allowing the ridge
to build eastward to the north and northeast of the cyclone. This
should act to the drive the storm westward across the central
Caribbean Sea in the 48-120 hour forecast periods. The official
forecast track is close to a blend of the NOGAPS... UKMET... and
GFDL models.
Upper-level westerly shear of 20-25 kt is expected to continue
across the cyclone for the next 36-48 hours... which should inhibit
any rapid development during that time. Afterwards... the shear is
expected to decrease to less than 10 kt... at which time more
significant development could occur. The SHIPS model brings the
intensity up to 66 kt in 108 hours... whereas the GFDL makes the
cyclone a 112-kt major hurricane at the same time. It should be
pointed out that the SHIPS intensity model forecast was based on
the medium BAM model forecast track... which takes the storm
southwestward across Colombia where upper-level winds are expected
to be much stronger than they are over the central Caribbean Sea.
It is quite possible that this system could end up stronger than
indicated after 72 hours... given the much lower vertical wind
shear that the global models are forecasting to be in place over
the 96- and 120-hour official forecast positions.
Forecaster Stewart
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 14/0300z 13.5n 62.7w 30 kt
12hr VT 14/1200z 14.3n 64.1w 30 kt
24hr VT 15/0000z 15.3n 65.7w 35 kt
36hr VT 15/1200z 15.9n 67.2w 35 kt
48hr VT 16/0000z 16.1n 68.8w 40 kt
72hr VT 17/0000z 16.0n 72.2w 45 kt
96hr VT 18/0000z 16.0n 75.5w 50 kt
120hr VT 19/0000z 16.0n 79.0w 60 kt
New Orleans - NO way. don'sha no W is goin to steer this down to get Chavez in Vz
Thank you!
This is ridiculous!
Cool.
Well, have at least used the time since Wilma to strengthen my shutter system a little. And have not taken them all down yet either!
So...do we have shear?
In the last 150 years the US has been hit by exactly two hurricanes after November 12th.
The odds of this striking the US mainland as a hurricane are exceedingly low.
Oh great, now you've done it. You had to say something.
Every cold front that sweeps on down this way introduces shear.
And lately they seem to have been arriving every few days/once a week.
Although, interestingly, I overheard the weather guy tonight talking about the latest one stalling out before it comes down near Orlando.
Hmmmmmmm.
Did I miss a ping? LOL
It's 8 O'clock in the morning, on November 14th, in Pennsylvania.
And it's 55 degrees outside! The leaves are beautiful!
Great!! no canes for turkey day!!
Have a good one!!
I wonder ... where would the list be prior to the creation of sattelite tracking.
Most of these went out to sea.
She's looking very healthy this morning, Nauti, I think it will get a name by this afternoon. Shear is relaxing and an upper level high is building over her. Very deep convection late this a.m.
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