To: Dan Evans
This line of analysis misses a key point of the abiotic, deep-Earth theory of oil's origin. If oil is naturally produced within the Earth's mantle, oil may well be a renewable resource.
We know it's naturally produced. The question is whether it's being produced fast enough for us to continue on as we are.
Personally, my theory is that it comes from outer space. The outer space idea and the deep-Earth idea may mean that if we drill deeper, we might find more, but who knows for sure? Unfortunately, we can't assume that everthing will work out, because if it does not, then there will be world wide famine. We can't feed this many people without oil.
posted on 11/15/2005 7:13:58 AM PST
See post #3. We won't run out because as the price gradually increases, it makes other forms of energy economically viable. There are huge quantities of marginal "fossil" fuels that we either haven't developed the technology to recover (such as methane hydrates in the sea) or are not cost effective at current prices such as tar sands or shale oil). Not to mention synthetic fuels from coal. Then we can go to nuclear, geothermal, tidal, wind, solar, etc.
So why not do those things now? Because it will be much easier to do it with future technology than with current technology. This is one reason oil companies only explore enough to create a ten year supply of proven reserves.
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