Posted on 11/28/2005 4:37:12 AM PST by TigerLikesRooster
/begin my translation
China: 77 Avian Flu Patients Dead in Liaoning Province...Victim's Name Published on Internet
2005/11/21
In Liaoning Province of China, 6 people were infected with H5N1 Avian Flu and had died recently, according to Nov. 20 report by an overseas Chinese language news site, Boxun, quoting the article posted by a poster.
Six victims were 4 students in Beining City, 1 epidemic-prevention worker, and another person whose identity is unknown. According to the post, the number of dead people from H5N1 Avian Flu in Liaoning Province has reached 77, including the six new victims. Furthermore, at one of domestic Chinese Internet site, the name of 14 migrant farm workers killed by Avian Flu were published on Nov. 19.
According to the post at Boxun.com, government gives monetary compensation to victim's family in return for not divulging the nature of victim's death. However, if it gets ever revealed, not a single cent of compensation would be given, and would be arrested for endangering social order and security.
Of the 6 dead, the family of epidemic-prevention worker were given 240,000 yuan($30,000), and other victim's family were given 120,000 yuan($15,000). Those families who got less complained to Beijing government, and this led to the news leak to others.
The number of people who were suspected of Avian Flu and underwent a medical test or were quarantined for a short period of time has exceeded 150,000. Furthermore, rumors are spreading in the local area, which say that Avian Flu can now spread from person to person. This plunged the local residents into panic. The number of infected people in Liaoning Province is estimated to exceed those of Qing-hai Province during the previous Avian Flu outbreak(a few months ago.)
The name of 14 dead victims were published in a post at an Chinese domestic Internet site called 'Tienya Forum.' It said that most of the dead were farm workers from Sichuan, Hunan, Anhui Province, who were working at the area of Liaoning Province where Avian Flu is raging. The poster who published the list said that he did so in order to inform the victim's family of what happened. Its detail are as follows:
According to migrant farm workers in Liaoning Province, most of them has died from H5N1 Avian Flu or been placed in quarantine. If a person dies from Avian Flu and he does not have his family in the local area, he was immediately cremated, leading the victim's family to believe that he is just missing. Due to tight information control, I could only obtain the names of 14 dead victims. The list is as follows. All died from H5N1 Avian Flu and their bodies were cremated.
/end my translation
http://www.peacehall.com/news/gb/china/2005/11/200511201058.shtml
At the end of the article is the personal information of 14 victims.
Ping!
If the Avian flu is actualy sreading person to person would this be the first time? It's been my understanding that you have to have intimate contact with infected foul to catch it.
Interesting stuff
Ping
Ping!
One of the news organizations was giving China great praise for the speed in which it produces flu vaccine.
But the death rate raises these questions--
How safe are the vaccines?
Why is the vulnerability in China so much higher?
Does this relate back to SARS?
Why was the vulnerability in China so much higher for SARS/
Most Chinese come in contact with poultry everyday of their lives, at least those that shop for food for the family. Seems to me that this would put the Chinese at increased risk for catching the avian flu from the birds themselves.
Open air markets are full of live poultry, and most Chinese shop at open air markets, even in the "big cities."
In the case of SARS, I believe that it was also traced to a open market in Guanghzou and was thought to have been contracted from a certain type of wild animal for sale there.
Thanks for the information! I seem to recall that SARS had some sort of appearance in a laboratory though.
You're right about the lab. I don't recall all the details,but an official-who was making a big show of peering through a microscope,but didn't know what he was doing-knocked over the specimens he was "studying",and walked away-presumably leaving the cleanup to subordinates.
The spill was discovered hours later. By then, a large number of people had been exposed, including those the party official was in contact with-when he boarded an airplane.
Wow! Makes me wonder why they were fooling around with that kind of stuff.
Scary stuff. One of these days we will get a new pandemic. It has happened many times in the past, and will happen again many times in the future. I pray this isn't the one and fizzles out like the Swine Flu did.
Errr...
Not good.
Thanks for the translation! Lieing to the world about this disease can only make things worse for all concerned. We need more folks like you to get the truth out.
I did a little googling. Don't know what the final out come was, but from this article and many others, it was suspected that SARS was linked to civet cats in Guangdong province and Guangzhou markets.
http://www.mongabay.com/external/china-2004_civit_kill.html
Human to human transmission of avian flu has occurred, as much as a year ago. I think case was confirmed as such in Vietnam.
If you read official pronouncments carefully you will see a bit of weasel wording about this. Being kept low key.
Thank you very much for the translation, and for posting the article.
I'm shocked, and speechless. The implications are staggering.
I swear, you are the only person who can make me laugh WTSHTF. For that, I call you FRiend. ;-D
As I recall, the human to human transmission in Vietnam was from a patient to a family member caring for him. Transmission through casual contact has not occurred, at least not officially.
First, it was said that h2h transmission was the tipping point. Then, when THAT happened in VN, it was said that sustained h2h transmission would be the tipping point.
It looks like we might have sustained h2h transmission.
Next bar will likely be "when sustained h2h transmission occurs beyond two levels, i.e. h2h2h transmission." I bet that has happened.
Elsewhere, it was said, "When medical workers start dying of it," or "When case numbers are in the dozens" or "when whole towns are sealed off" or "when thousands are put in isolation," etc.
I think the tipping point has been reached, and since this article is from the 20th of November, I suspect that it was reached some time ago. The events in this article took place BEFORE the 20th of November--weeks before.
What is the likelihood that somebody carrying H5N1 in pandemic form has left Asia? Pretty high, I'd bet. It only took one doctor on an airplane trip to spread SARS to over 30 countries in a VERY short time...and influenza spreads a lot faster than SARS did...
A young girl got it from poultry, her mother, caring for her, got it, but also may have been exposed to poultry. Her mother's sister had no known poultry exposure, but cared for the mother. All three died. You are correct, that is the first recorded instance of h2h transmission. In that instance, no health care workers got the illness.
Sleeping with the fishes poultry.
LOL! Just read my post and realized it should have said fowl
When it truly becomes transmissible between humans with no birds involved, the number of infected patients will immediately be numbered in the thousands.
Cos China is making this shyte up...they are the manufacturers of these ( viruses )...
And we won't know about it for three weeks.
Remember that the Indonesian fellow in the CFR transcripts said that the nine people who died there were, and I quote, "only the tip of the iceberg". He admitted that they had no idea about the number of humans who had it or had died.
Pinpointing when and where the h2h transmission began will be an interesting tidbit for future historians, but it's not going to help us at all when the pandemic quickly goes global.
Honestly, we really have no idea what H5N1 is doing in asia, and I doubt we will for some time--not until it's too late.
When the most reliable information about the current state of H5N1 viral evolution is found on a personal translation of a smuggled underground Chinese dissident internet publication, because the freaking Chinese won't pay full death benefit fees if the true cause of death is disclosed--
we live in danger of a pandemic overtaking us before we even know it's there.
The article from China linked above by Judith Anne mentioned that several STUDENTS had gotten ill. That sounds like human-to-human, close contact living, rather than exposure to chickens on the farm. Scary.
And that "any" is going to be worth more than gold; the plant that makes it will be worth more than gold; shipments of it will be worth more than gold...
You are now "famous" TLR. A poster over at CurEvents.com evidently read your translation and posted it over there on that forum, and gave a link to this thread.
CurEvents has excellent information on Avian Flu, and I'm glad if we could be of assistance with the translation. I hope everyone agrees. Information is critical, and should be shared whenever possible. Who knows where the information will come from, that will save lives?
Here is the link to the CurEvents article:
http://www.curevents.com/vb/showthread.php?p=203527#post203527
I post there infrequently under my own name.
That is a very good explanation. Thank you. :-)
Well, there are definitely many concerned people out there. Glad to hear that somebody finds my work helpful. I suppose this kind of article tends to fall through the crack. It takes some commitment to produce a decent translation but those who have such resources, major news organization, could not print it because verifying its content is nearly impossible under the current circumstance.
Considering what passes for news in the major media, I value your translation and your commitment even more. And I hadn't noticed that verification was a big component of major news stories, at least here in the US.
Again, I thank you.
Very interesting.
Thanks for the translation.
So, there may be many many more victims, but their families are being paid to keep quiet...to prevent a panic?
I think that is exactly right. Because of the dynamics of epidemiological growth, the time that it takes to go from an index patient to "discovery" of an epidemic by the MSM is about the same time as from discovery to full-bore, world-wide pandemic. And, therefore, "it can overtake us before we even know it's there."
However, I take a somewhat iconoclastic perspective on the issue of whether China is hiding H5N1 human to human transmission. IMHO, I hope that there have already been h2h transmission. I hope there has been a lot of it already. The reason is that the contagion and hence growth rate is unknown. The Hong Kong researchers suggested that it would be 2 more infections every 3 days, but that is their opinion only. Perhaps it is much slower. If it is much slower, that would mean we would have a better chance of fighting this. We can work the problem in reverse. Given that there is some sufficiently large number of cases that the Chineese cannot hide, which we take as an upper bound to the problem, then the longer that h2h transmission has been going on, the slower the infection rate.
To illustrate. Assume that the number of cases beyond which China cannot disguise is 10,000. Assume that the index case of h2h was 6 months ago. Then the e-folding time is 20 days. To go to world-wide pandemic of 1 billion infections from this 10,000 takes 230 days; a fair fraction of a year. By contrast, assume that the index case of h2h was 1 month ago. Then the e-folding time is 3.3 days. To go to world-wide pandemic of 1 billion infections from this 10,000 takes only 38 days.
Okay, I get it. ;-D
I'm sure you already know all the questions your post raises...
TLR - finest work.
If it's highly contagious, we're going to be in a world of hurt.
they live with their chickens and catch the stuff.
lol clicked onthat article. it is all in chinese...
Thank you TigerLikesRooster.
That is precisely correct.
What saint do we pray to, to keep this plague away?
I have a reservation about your conclusion...For one thing, there are unusual cases of diseases spreading for instance in India...tests are done on a few people, antigens to possible pathogens are found, and the whole thing is chalked up to the first positive pathogen without further testing. (See, Erode, India for a shocking story.)
We have no way to discover the rate of speed of the spread, if H5N1 goes pandemic (or HAS gone pandemic). Big outbreaks of Japanese encephalitis or dengue or Coxsackie-B viruses are happening in the far east, with no actual certainty (except a few positive pathogen tests) that is what's happening.
For example: I have polio antibodies in my system, along with measles, mumps, and rubella since I have HAD all these illnesses. If I get a rash, and the doctor tests for measles and finds antibodies, he might conclude I have measles and ignore the possibility of an allergic reaction. See what I mean?
People in the far east may have had subclinical or mild viral infections and recovered from then, but test positive, while the real cause of the illness might be H5N1, with no accessible antibody formation yet...(forms first deep in the lungs, iirc).
Japanese encephalitis outbreaks are being diagnosed in some areas with no lumbar puncture, because "it" looks like Japanese encephalitis.
In some of these underdiagnosed outbreaks, the mortality rate is substantial. If even some of these outbreaks (which have similar clinical features to H5N1) ARE avian flu, the slow spread is already happening and we are substantially lower than 280+ days toward that first billion.........
PS, I think ProMed is asking a number of locations for firmer diagnoses....
What you're saying is that is that it could spread more quickly and remain undetected for some time. While that's true, and while that would be bad, that's a different premise.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
