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To: bobdsmith
For example getting all the cards in strict order of suit and number would be an extraordinary hand

According to your perception, because you value that particular combination. But it's not statistically any less likely than any other combination.

164 posted on 12/05/2005 9:10:08 AM PST by antiRepublicrat
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To: antiRepublicrat
According to your perception, because you value that particular combination. But it's not statistically any less likely than any other combination.

No, but the probability of getting a combination that I value is extremely low, which is why I would find it astonishing to get one.

Take a better analogy: A lottery machine containing 100 billion blue balls and just one red ball. The lottery machine randomly selects a ball. If the selected ball is red I would find that astonishing because the odds of that happening were so low (this is entirely valid astonisment, showing that retrospective astonishment is not always a fallacy)

An argument parallel to your above argument would be that my astonishment at getting a red ball is only due to my perception because I value red balls, and pointing out that the red ball had just as much chance of being selected as any particular blue ball. But it isn't the particular ball that astonishes me, it is the particular color of that ball.

220 posted on 12/05/2005 11:31:20 AM PST by bobdsmith
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